November 1 2012 - December 31 2012

By: HadesGodWyvern , 11:25 PM GMT on October 31, 2012

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Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon 2012 season
=================================================
Information used for this blog are from

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

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Northwestern Pacific
-----------------
Japan Meteorological Agency: Tokyo
Hong Kong Observatory: China
Typhoon 2000: Philippines
PAGASA: Manila, Philippines

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Northern Indian Ocean
--------------------
India Meteorological Department: New Delphi
Thailand Meteorological Department

------------------------
Northeastern Pacific Ocean
------------------------
National Hurricane Center: Miami, FL

-------------------------
Central Northeastern Pacific
----------------------------
Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Honolulu, Hawaii

---------------------------
Southern Indian Ocean
---------------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta: Indonesia
Mauritius Meteorological Service
Reunion Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

--------------------------
Southern Pacific Ocean
-----------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Fiji Meteorological Services: Nadi
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center: Wellington

=========================================

=======================
Northeast Pacific Ocean
========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Miami National Hurricane Center

National Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

October
EP172012.Rosa - 1000 hPa

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=======================
North Central Pacific Ocean
========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Honolulu National Hurricane Center

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================



-------------------------------------------------

========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26 - 1004 hPa
T201224.Bopha/Pablo - 930 hPa

December
T201225.Wukong/Quinta - 998 hPa
-------------------------------------------------
========================
North Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

October
BOB02-2012.Nilam - 992 hPa

November
BOB03-2012.NONAME - 1002 hPa

December
ARB02-2012.NONAME - 1002 hPa

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Southwestern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Seychelles Meteorological Services
Mauritius Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November
02R.NONAME - 1004 hPa
03R.Boldwin - 987 hPa

December
04R.Claudia - 950 hPa
05R.NONAME - 995 hPa

------------------------------------------------

Southeastern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Bureau Of Meteorology: Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Bureau of Meteorology: Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning center Jakarta

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

December
04U.MITCHELL - 990 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
Southwestern Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Bureau Of Meteorology: Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Bureau Of Meteorology: Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Papua New Guinea

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

December
03U.FREDA - 980 hPa (within AOR)

-------------------------------------------------
Southwestern Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Fiji Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November
01F.NONAME - 991 hPa
02F.NONAME - 1001 hPa

December
03F.NONAME - 997 hPa
04F.Evan - 943 hPa
05F/03U.FREDA - 940 hPa (within AOR)
06F.NONAME - 1005 hPa

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Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #28
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
4:30 AM RET December 13 2012
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Cyclone, Former Claudia (993 hPa) located at 27.5S 75.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: NIL

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 105 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 160 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 170 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 34.1S 81.2E - Depression Extratropicale
48 HRS: 39.0S 92.1E - Depression Extratropicale
72 HRS: 39.9S 102.4E - Se Dissipant

Additional Information
=====================
Current intensity is assessed with OSCAT pass at 1856 PM UTC that show uncontaminated winds at 40 knots in the northeastern quadrant with the fact that the overall pattern of ex-Claudia has not changed much since that time.

Ex-Claudia shows now a typical fully extratropical pattern. Phasis diagram at 1800 PM UTC made with AMSU data suggest that the system was by that time, in the shallow/ asymmetric warm core phasis. Given that and the current pattern on infrared imagery, the system is now classified as an extratropical system.

The system seems to have slow down a bit during the night. However global philosophy has not changed much: gradual speed up in a southeastwards track and then, Saturday, over the southern edge of the subtropical ridge, an eastwards motion at a slower rate.

Winds might remain strong until Friday in the eastern then northern sectors by gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST December 13 2012
================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (1001 hPa) located at 17.5S 160.6W is reported as slowly moving. Position good based on multispectral visible imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has not improved in the past 24 hours. Convection has not improved in the last 24 hours. System lies in a moderate to high sheared environment and under an upper level trough. Low level circulation center is exposed and displaced to the northeast.

Global models have picked up the system with no further development.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY TWO (04F)
6:00 AM FST December 13 2012
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Evan (985 hPa) located at 14.0S 172.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 3 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds
====================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
45 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
45 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Deep convection has increased in the past 12 hours with primary bands trying to wrap around. The cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to south. System lies in a low sheared environment and is being steered eastwards by a westerly deep layer mean flow. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on 1.0 wrap, yielding DT of 3.5. MET and PT agree. Final T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 13.8S 171.7W - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.8S 171.6W - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.5S 173.6W - 65 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
22:30 PM RET December 12 2012
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Claudia (991 hPa) located at 26.4S 74.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
================
140 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 160 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 185 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 210 in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 32.3S 79.1E - Depression Extratropicale
48 HRS: 38.4S 89.4E - Depression Extratropicale
72 HRS: 40.9S 101.4E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
The effect of strong westerlies (30 knots of shear according to CIMMS at 1500z) is disrupting the convective mass associated with Claudia. However latest microwave imagery still show some strong low level vorticity. Latest available Dvorak analysis suggest winds in the 30-40 knots range. However and as indicated previously, the Dvorak method does not handle well this 'post-tropical' cyclone. So max wind is still set at 45 knots before new assessment of intensity with upcoming scatterometric data later tonight.

Note that the central pressure estimation is reviewed at a lower value due to a higher estimation of near gale force winds radii.

Claudia has begun its extra-tropical transition. AMSU cross section of brightness temp. Anomalies of latest NOAA pass of this afternoon show some upper level cold air intrusion ... indicating of a gradually more baroclinic environment for this system.

Within the next 24 hours, Claudia is expected to curve more clearly southeastward on the southwestern edge of the mid-level highs and ahead of a deep upper level trough located to the south of the Mascareignes archipelago. On this track, Claudia should accelerate progressively over the next few days.

System should completing its extratropical transition during next night or later tomorrow. Winds might remain strong until Friday in the eastern sector by gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. Saturday, the system should gradually fill up and track eastwards at a slower motion
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY TWO (04F)
0:00 AM FST December 13 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Evan (985 hPa) located at 13.9S 172.8W has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 13 knots. Position fair based on GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM in northern quadrant
80 NM in southern quadrant

TC EVAN continues to intensify with deep convection increasing in the past 6 hours. Cloud tops cooling. The cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to restricted to south but good elsewhere. EVAN lies in a moderately sheared environment and is being steered eastward by a westerly deep layer mean flow. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on 1.0 wrap on LOG spiral yielding DT=3.5, MET=4.0, PT=3.5. Final T number based on PT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 13.8S 171.7W - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.8S 171.3W - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.8S 172.3W - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
16:30 PM RET December 12 2012
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Claudia (995 hPa) located at 25.0S 73.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM in the southwestern quadrant, extending up to 70 NM in the northeastern quadrant, and up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 110 NM in the northeastern quadrant, and up to 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 30.9S 76.9E - Depression Extratropicale
48 HRS: 37.3S 86.3E - Depression Extratropicale
72 HRS: 40.7S 98.8E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
Dvorak analysis is based on MET, because system is doing its extratropical transition and Dvorak analysis is not easy to do. 0642z OSCAT data show a very asymmetric winds field, but with winds still reaching 50 knots within the eastern part of the system due to gradient effect with subtropical high pressures. Consequently, current intensity is maintained at 45 knots for this 12:00 PM UTC fix (light weakening in regard of 0600 AM UTC fix where intensity has been probably under-estimated - see OSCAT data)

Claudia is doing its extratropical transition. ECMWF numerical weather prediction model shows cold air above 600hpa and analysis and forecast cyclone phase evolution diagram (UKMO 12/12/0600z) confirms this ongoing process. The low level center is difficult to locate as fluctuating convection, mainly rejected in the south-eastern part of the system, wraps from time to time around low level circulation center.

Within the next 24 hours, Claudia is expected to curve more clearly southeastward on the southwestern edge of the mid-level highs and ahead of a deep upper level trough located to the south of the Mascareignes archipelago. On this track, Claudia should accelerate progressively over the next few days.

System should completing its extratropical transition during next night or tomorrow morning. Winds might remain strong until Friday in the eastern sector by gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. Saturday, the system should gradually fill up and track eastwards at a slower motion.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST December 12 2012
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (998 hPa) located at 18.2S 160.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position fair based on multispectral visible imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has not improved in the past 24 hours. Convection has decreased in the last 18 hours. System lies in a moderately sheared environment and under an upper level trough. Low level circulation center exposed with convection displaced to the northeast.

Global models have picked up the system with no further development.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY ONE (04F)
18:00 PM FST December 12 2012
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Evan (990 hPa) located at 14.1S 174.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 4 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM in northern quadrant
70 NM in southern quadrant

Deep convection has increased in the past 6 hours. Cloud tops cooling. The cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the south. System lies in a moderate sheared environment and is being steered eastwards by a westerly deep layer mean flow. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on central cloud cover pattern, yielding DT 3.0, MET and PT agree. FT based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 13.8S 172.7W - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.9S 172.0W - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.6S 172.2W - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
10:30 AM RET December 12 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Claudia (995 hPa) located at 23.3S 73.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/18 HRS

Gale Force Winds
================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 90 NM in the semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up 130 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 28.6S 75.3E - Depression Extratropicale
48 HRS: 34.3S 80.9E - Depression Extratropicale
72 HRS: 39.0S 92.5E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
Claudia has clearly begun its extra-tropical transition. ECMWFf numerical weather prediction model shows cold air above 600hpa and analysis and forecast cyclone phase evolution diagram (UKMO 1800z Tuesday) confirms this evolution. The center appears exposed northeast of the deep convection on microwave (0004z TRMM and 0306z f18) and classical imagery. Winds field is becoming asymmetric with strongest winds (45 knots) east of the system due to gradient effect with subtropical high pressures.

Within the next 24 hours, Claudia is expected to curve more clearly southeastward on the southwestern edge of the mid-level highs and ahead of a deep upper level trough located to the south of the Mascareignes archipelago. On this track, Claudia should accelerate progressively over the next few days.

System should completing its extratropical transition during next night or tomorrow morning. Winds might remain strong until Friday in the eastern sector by gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. Saturday, the system should gradually fill up and track eastwards at a slower motion.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY ONE (04F)
12:00 PM FST December 12 2012
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Evan (995 hPa) located at 14.2S 174.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM in northeastern quadrant
120 NM in northwestern quadrant
80 NM in southern quadrant

Organization has improved significantly in the past 24 hours. Convection increased with primary bands trying to wrap around the low level circulation center. System lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the south. EVAN lies in a low sheared environment and is being steered east northeast by a west southwest deep layer mean flow. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on 0.6 wrap on LOG 10 spiral yielding DT=3.0, MET and PT agrees.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 13.7S 172.6W - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.4S 171.6W - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.2S 171.4W - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE TD 04F - LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
155 PM SST TUE DEC 11 2012

...GALE WATCH FOR ALL OF AMERICAN SAMOA WEDNESDAY...


AT 11 AM SST THIS MORNING...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F WAS LOCATED AT 14.2S 174.8W OR ABOUT 275 MILES WEST OF PAGO PAGO MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 14 MPH. IF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F STAYS ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THEN IT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO AMERICAN SAMOA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
4:30 AM RET December 12 2012
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Claudia (992 hPa) located at 22.5S 73.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 180 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 100 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 27.2S 74.2E - Depression Extratropicale
48 HRS: 33.5S 78.7E - Depression Extratropicale
72 HRS: 38.6S 89.7E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
As the northwesterly constraint go on strengthening (CIMSS at 2100z). The center appears always exposed to the northwest of the deep convection on microwave imagery, it is now out close to the edge of convection on classical imagery, but difficult to locate.

Little change in the global track philosophy: beyond the next 12 hours, Claudia is expected to curve more clearly southeastwards on the southwestern edge of the mid-level highs and ahead of a deep upper level trough located to the south of the Mascareignes archipelago. On this track, Claudia should accelerate progressively over the next few days.

The timing of the extratropical transition is unchanged compared to the previous package. Numerical weather prediction fields (TPW 500 HPA) suggest that the process could start as early as tomorrow and been completed Wednesday night or Tuesday morning. Winds may remain strong until Friday in the eastern sector by gradient effect with the subtropical high pressure. Saturday, the system should gradually filled up and track eastwards at a slower motion.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST December 12 2012
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (999 hPa) located at 18.5S 159.9W is reported as slowly moving. Position fair based on multisatellite visible imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has not improved in the past 24 hours. Convection has decreased in the last 12 hours. System lies in a moderate sheared environment and under an upper level trough. Low level circulation center exposed with convection displaced to the northeast.

Global models have picked up the system with no further development.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F
6:00 AM FST December 12 2012
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (998 hPa) located at 14.6S 175.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east at 12 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Overall organization and convection has improved in the past 24 hours. Cloud tops cooling past 3 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low to moderate sheared environment. Tropical depression being steered east by deep layer mean westerly wind. Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap giving DT=2.5, MET=2.5, PT=2.5. FT based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.2S 173.8W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 13.6S 172.3W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 13.7S 171.3W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
22:30 PM RET December 11 2012
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Claudia (986 hPa) located at 21.2S 72.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/12 HRS

Storm Force Winds
=================
35 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 130 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 160 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 26.5S 74.2E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 32.0S 79.4E - Depression Extratropicale
72 HRS: 36.7S 91.3E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
As the northwesterly constraint excess 20 knots (CIMSS at 1500z), the system is maintained some significant deep convection close to the center, but an shear bow can be seen on water vapor imagery.

If the center appears exposed to the northwest of the deep convection on microwave imagery, it is now right under the edge of convection on classical imagery. The pattern is a shear pattern with a center located near the northwestern edge of the convective mass.

Little change in the global track philosophy: beyond the next 12 hours, Claudia is expected to curve southeastwards on the southwestern edge of the mid-level highs and ahead of a deep upper level trough located to the south of the Mascareignes archipelago. On this track, Claudia should accelerate progressively over the next few days.

The timing of the extratropical transition is unchanged compared to the previous package. Numerical weather prediction fields (tTPW 500 HPA) suggest that the process could start as early as tomorrow and been completed Wednesday night or Tuesday morning. Winds may remain strong until Friday in the eastern sector by gradient effect with the subtropical high pressure. Saturday, the system should gradually filled up and track eastwards at a slower motion.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
1003 PM SST MON DEC 10 2012
AMERICAN SAMOA COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 40 NAUTICAL MILES INCLUDING
THE FAGATELE BAY NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
PSZ100-112145-
1003 PM SST MON DEC 10 2012

SYNOPSIS FOR AMERICAN SAMOA COASTAL WATERS

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION (04F) IS CENTERED AT 15.1S 177.8W OR ABOUT 420 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE MIDWEEK.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F
0:00 AM FST December 12 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 14.8S 177.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on hourly infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Overall organization has improved with multiple bands trying to wrap around the center of the system. The system lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Tropical depression is being steered east southeast by west northwest deep layer mean wind. Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap giving DT=2.5, MET=2.0, and PT=2.0 FT based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.4S 175.4W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 13.7S 173.5W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 13.8S 171.9W - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
16:30 PM RET December 11 2012
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Claudia (978 hPa) located at 20.1S 72.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 75 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 130 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 150 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 190 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 25.0S 73.2E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 31.0S 77.8E - Depression Extratropicale
72 HRS: 36.2S 87.6E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
As Claudia is crossing 20s over 25C sea surface temperatures under a 20 knots northwesterly constraint (CIMSS at 0900z), the system is maintained some significant deep convection close to the center associated with good upper level divergence seen on water vapor imagery. If the center appears exposed to the northwest of the deep convection on microwave imagery, it is still covered by clouds on classical imagery. The pattern is a shear pattern with a center located over the northwestern edge of the convective mass. AMSU intensity estimate of 0852z with an excellent fov give 70 knots (10 min winds) as SATCON. However the RMW used appear too small according recent microwave RMW estimates. This could introduce a high bias in the AMSU intensity estimate ... At 1130z, Dvorak estimates from PGTW and SAB give 57 knots...which is in good agreement with the current assessment.

Little change in the global track philosophy with the 0:00 AM UTC run: tomorrow, Claudia is expected to curve southeastwards on the southwestern edge of the mid-level highs and ahead of a deep upper level trough located to the south of the Mascareignes archipelago. On this track, Claudia should accelerate progressively over the next few days.

The timing of the extratropical transition is unchanged compared to the previous package. Numerical weather prediction fields (TPW 500 HPA) suggest that the process could start as early as tomorrow and been completed Wednesday night or Tuesday morning. Winds may remain strong until Friday in the eastern sector by gradient effect with the subtropical high pressure. Saturday, the system should gradually filled up and track eastwards at a slower motion.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST December 11 2012
==================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (999 hPa) located at 17.8S 159.5W is reported as moving slow. Position fair on multisatellite infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has not improved in the past 24 hours. Convection has decreased in the last 24 hours. System lies in a moderately sheared environment and under an upper level trough. Low level circulation center is partially exposed with convection displaced to the east.

Global models have picked up the system with no further intensification.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F
18:00 PM FST December 11 2012
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (998 hPa) located at 15.1S 177.8W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 10 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Overall organization has improved with multiple bands trying to wrap around the system center. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Tropical depression is being steered east southeast by west northwest deep lay mean wind. Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap giving DT=2.5, MET=2.0 and PT=2.0. FT based on DT

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Most global models agree on a eastward movement with further development.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.8S 175.7W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 14.5S 174.2W - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.5S 172.8W - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
CYCLONE TROPICAL CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
10:30 AM RET December 11 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Claudia (975 hPa) located at 19.3S 72.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/S0.0/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM in the southern semi-circle and in the northeastern quadrant

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 75 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 80 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
================
105 NM radius from the center, extending up to 130 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 150 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
125 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 190 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 23.7S 72.8E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 29.1S 76.4E - Depression Extratropicale
72 HRS: 35.1S 85.2E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
Microwave data from this morning allow to relocate the center of Claudia more to the west than previously estimated. This data, combined with infrared imagery (where a hot point has appeared since 05z) show a vertical tilt of the vertical structure down shear. There is a 20 NM difference between the low level center seen on 37 GHZ microwave imagery and the ir imagery. Dvorak estimates from PGTW and SAB along with a good AMSU estimate at 2017z, support an initial intensity at minimal tropical cyclone level. Claudia is tracking over sea surface temperature of 25-26C and undergoes at least a 15kt northwesterly vertical wind shear (CIMSS data)

Little change in the global track philosophy just a westwards adjustment according to re localization: by 48 hours, it is expected to encounter the mid-latitude westerly flow and curve southeastward. On this track, it should accelerate progressively today, and more sharply beyond.

Upper level environmental conditions will continue to degrade today, with a strengthening north-westerly vertical wind shear, ahead of an upper tropospheric trough. By tracking southward, Claudia will encounter cooler and cooler sea surface temperatures. The timing of the extratropical transition is changed compared to the previous package. Numerical weather prediction fields (TPW 500 HPA) suggest that the process could start as early as tomorrow and been completed Wednesday night. Winds may remain strong until Friday in the eastern sector by gradient effect with the subtropical high pressure.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F
12:00 PM FST December 11 2012
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (1001 hPa) located at 14.2S 179.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving east northeast at 9 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Overall organization and convection has increased in the past 24 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Tropical Depression is being steered east northeast by west southwest deep layer mean wind. Dvorak analysis based on 0.3 wrap giving DT=2.0, MET and PT agree. FT based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Most global modesl agree on a eastward movement with further development.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.0S 177.8W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 13.5S 176.1W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 12.8S 172.9W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
CYCLONE TROPICAL CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
0:30 AM RET December 11 2012
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Claudia (972 hPa) located at 18.4S 73.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 55 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 60 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
65 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 130 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 210 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 230 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 21.9S 73.2E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 27.4S 75.3E - Depression Extratropicale
72 HRS: 33.5S 82.6E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
During the past 6 hours, the eye pattern has disappeared on the infrared pictures. Recent micro-wave imagery (TRMM 1648z, AMSUB 2017z) depicts the de-structuring of the deep convection in a large northern part of the system. Claudia is tracking over sea surface temperature of 25-26C and undergoes a 15 knots at least northwesterly vertical wind shear (CIMSS data)

System is still moving rather slowly southward under the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge existing in its east. By 48 hours, it is expected to encounter the mid-latitude westerly flow and curve southeastward. On this track, it should accelerate progressively today, and more sharply beyond.

Upper level environmental conditions will continue to degrade today, with a strengthening northwesterly vertical wind shear, ahead of an upper tropospheric trough. By tracking southward, Claudia will encounter cooler and cooler sea surface temperatures. By 48 hours, system could begin its extratropical transition. Winds may remain strong until Friday in the eastern sector by gradient effect with the subtropical high pressure.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST December 11 2012
================================

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN COOKS

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (997 hPa) located at 17.8S 159.9W is reported as slowly moving. Position fair based on mulitsatellite visible and infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has not improved in the past 24 hours. Convection has not increased in the last 24 hours. System lies in a moderately sheared environment and under an upper level trough. Low level circulation center partially exposed with convection displaced to the east.

Global models have picked up the system with no further development.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F
6:00 AM FST December 11 2012
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (1001 hPa) located at 14.5S 180.0 has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 8 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Overall organization and convection has increased in the past 24 hours. System lies under an upper diffluent region in a low sheared environment. Depression is being steered east southeast by west southwest deep layer mean wind. Dvorak analysis based on 0.2 wrap. DT=1.5 MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D0.0/24 HRS

Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Most global models agree on a eastward movement with further development.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.5S 178.7W - 20 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 14.0S 188.3W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 13.3S 173.8W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
CYCLONE TROPICAL CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
22:30 PM RET December 10 2012
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Claudia (965 hPa) located at 18.1S 73.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 140 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 210 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 21.5S 73.0E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 27.0S 75.1E - Depression Extratropicale
72 HRS: 32.1S 81.2E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
During the past 6 hours, the cloud pattern has first improved (around 1400z), and now it is degrading rapidly (warming top of clouds, cooling and decreasing definition of the eye). System is suffering from the drop of the ocean heat content. It is moving over sea surface temperatures under 26c now.

System still undergoes the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge existing in its east. Within the next 24 to 36 hours, it should progressively accelerate. Beyond, it is expected to accelerate more rapidly, on a south southeastward track. On Wednesday, system should encounter the mid-latitude westerly flow and curve south-eastward, then eastward.

Environmental upper levels conditions may begin to degrade in the second part of the night, with a strengthening northwesterly vertical wind shear, ahead of an upper tropospheric trough. By tracking southward, Claudia will encounter cooler and cooler sea surface temperatures. So, system may weaken rapidly within the next 12 hours. Wednesday, system should begin its extratropical transition. Winds could remain strong, beginning to weaken at the end of the forecast period.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
CYCLONE TROPICAL CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
16:30 PM RET December 10 2012
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Claudia (965 hPa) located at 17.5S 73.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 140 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 140 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 180 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 20.9S 73.2E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 26.0S 74.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 31.5S 79.5E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
Satellite imagery soon in the morning has shown the beginning of the weakening of the system, more significant on micro waves data where the eye wall appears eroded in the northwestern quadrant (AMSU 0903z). According to the very last satellite imagery, the system seems to re-intensify, cooling central dense overcast, and eye contraction

System still undergoes the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge existing in its east. Within the next 36 hours, it should progressively accelerate. Beyond, it is expected to accelerate more rapidly, on a south southeastward track. On Wednesday, system should encounter the mid-latitude westerly flow and curve southeastward, then eastward.

Environmental upper levels conditions remain favorable with a weak northeasterly vertical wind shear on the western edge of an upper tropospheric ridge, and good outflow southward always for the next 24 hours. But sea surface temperatures are becoming less efficient (26C), and Claudia will evolve over more and more cool sea surface temperatures by going down southward, major responsible of the weakening in a first time. Weakening is expected become more rapid on and after Tuesday as northwesterly vertical wind shear will strengthen ahead a high tropospheric trough.

Wednesday, system should begin its extratropical transition. Winds could remain strong then begin to weaken at the end of the forecast period.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST December 10 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (997 hPa) located at 18.8S 157.2W is reported as slowly moving. Position fair based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C

System lies in a high sheared environment and downstream of an upper level trough. Low level circulation center is partially exposed with convection displaced to the south.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it southwestward with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is LOW.

System #2
-----------

A 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (1003 hPa) located at 14.6S 178.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position fair based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization is slightly improved in past 24 hours. Convection has slightly increased in the past 24 hours. System lies under an upper level ridge in a low sheared environment. The cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 hPa.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it eastward with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
CYCLONE TROPICAL CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
10:30 AM RET December 10 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Claudia (956 hPa) located at 16.9S 74.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 170 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 19.6S 73.5E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 24.4S 74.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 31.2S 79.4E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
The system has performed cycle of eye last night (residual eye wall on TRMM data of 0156 AM UTC), and is now weakening.

System still undergoes the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge existing in its east. Within the next 36 hours, it should progressively accelerate. Beyond, it is expected to accelerate more rapidly, still on a southward track. On Wednesday, system should encounter the mid-latitude westerly flow and curve southeastward.

Environmental upper levels conditions remain favorable with a weak north-easterly vertical wind shear on the western edge of an upper tropospheric ridge, and good outflow southward always for the next 24 hours. But Sea surface temperatures are becoming less efficient (26.5C), and from this afternoon, Claudia will evolve over more and more cool sea surface temperature by going down southward. So system should begin to weaken rather slowly after has been reaching maximum intensity yesterday evening. Weakening is expected become more rapid on and after Tuesday as northwesterly vertical wind shear will strengthen ahead a high tropospheric trough.

Wednesday, system should begin its extratropical transition. Winds could remain strong then begin to weaken at the end of the forecast period.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
4:30 AM RET December 10 2012
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Claudia (952 hPa) located at 16.3S 74.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 170 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 18.6S 73.6E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 22.8S 73.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 28.9S 77.1E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
For the last 6 hours, the eye has cooled and has become less clean, while top of clouds has warmed. DT numbers averaged over 6hrs and 3hrs is respectively 5.4 and 5.2. ADT is to high, but falling since 1800 PM UTC. CIMSS-AMSU estimation is at 95 knots. Current intensity is maintained at 90 knots.

System still undergoes the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge existing in its east. Within the next 24 hours, it should progressively accelerate. Beyond, it is expected to accelerate more rapidly, still on a southward track. Wednesday, system should encounter the mid-latitude westerly flow and curve southeastward.

Environmental conditions remain favorable with a weak northeasterly vertical wind shear (8 knots) on the western edge of an upper tropospheric ridge, and good outflow southward and westward. Sea surface temperatures are still efficient (27C), but from this afternoon, Claudia will evolve over more and more cool sea surface temperatures by going down southward. So system should begin to weaken rather slowly after has been reaching maximum intensity yesterday evening. Weakening is expected become more rapid on and after Tuesday as northwesterly vertical wind shear will strengthen ahead a high tropospheric trough.

Wednesday, system should begin its extratropical transition. Winds could remain strong then begin to weaken at the end of the forecast period.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
6:00 AM FST December 10 2012
===============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (1001 hPa) located at 17.0S 156.0W. Position fair based on GOES visible imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

System lies in a high sheared environment and downstream of an upper level trough. Low level circulation center partially exposed with convection displaced to the south.

Global models have picked up the system and move it southwestward with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is LOW.

System #2
---------

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (1005 hPa) located at 12.0S 179.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization is poor. Convection has slightly increased in the past 24 hours. System lies under an upper level ridge in a low sheared environment. The cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it eastward with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 -48 is LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
22:30 PM RET December 9 2012
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Claudia (952 hPa) located at 15.8S 74.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 170 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 18.3S 73.4E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 22.4S 73.0E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 28.7S 75.5E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=====================
Eye pattern has again improved since 1200 PM UTC (better eye definition, top of clouds cooling). DT numbers averaged over 6hrs and 3hrs is 5.5. According to dT stabilized at 5.5, current intensity has been upgraded at intense cyclone minimal stage.

Claudia continues to move southward at about 4-5 knots. Environmental conditions are favorable with a weak northeasterly vertical wind shear (05-10 knots) on the western edge of an upper tropospheric ridge, and good outflow southward and westward. Sea surface temperature are still efficient (27C).

System undergoes the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge in its east. By 24 hours, Claudia should progressively accelerate and then it is expected to accelerate more rapidly, still on a southward track. Beyond 72 hours (Wednesday), system should encounter the mid-latitude westerly flow and curve southeastward.

For the next 12-18 hours, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable and system intensity should fluctuate around the actual intensity. Beyond, system might begin to weaken due sea surface temperature more and more cold south of 17.0S. On and after Tuesday, northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen ahead a high tropospheric trough. Wednesday, system should begin its extratropical transition. Winds could remain strong then begin to weaken at the end of the forecast period.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
CYCLONE TROPICAL CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
16:30 PM RET December 9 2012
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Claudia (960 hPa) located at 15.5S 74.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/S0.0/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 55 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 160 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 17.5S 73.6E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 21.2S 72.9E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 27.1S 74.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================
Last infrared and visible imagery depict an improving eye pattern since 0900 AM UTC (better eye definition, top of clouds cooling). At 1200 PM UTC, T number averaged over 6h and 3h are respectly. At 4.8 and 4.6. That is the basis for the present intensity estimate.

The system has moved southward at about 4kt over the past 6 hours. Environmental conditions are favorable with a weak northeasterly vertical wind shear (05-10 knots) on the western edge of an upper tropospheric ridge, and with a good outflow southward. Sea surface temperatures are good (27C). System undergoes the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge in its east. After 24 hours, southward movement may remain rather slow, and may increase progressively then and after. Beyond 72 hours, system should encounter the mid-latitude westerly flow and track southeastward faster.

On the forecast track, for the next 24 hours, environmental conditions may remain favorable and system intensity may fluctuate around the actual intensity. after 24 hours, system may begin to weaken, first with the weakening of the heat oceanic content south of 17.0S. On and after 48 hours, the vertical wind shear should strengthen ahead a high tropospheric trough. After 72 hours, system may begin its extratropical transition. Winds may remain strong and begin to weaken at the end of the forecast period. Available numerical weather prediction models are in very good agreement for the track.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONE TROPICAL CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
10:30 AM RET December 9 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Claudia (959 hPa) located at 15.1S 74.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/W1.0/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 55 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 110 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 160 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 17.0S 74.0E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 20.3S 73.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.7S 73.9E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
The eye pattern has fluctuated over the past 6 hours with an more or less well defines eye. At 0600 AM UTC, T number averaged over 6h and 3h are respectly At 4.8 and 4.6. That is the basis for the present intensity estimate.

The system has moved slowly southwestward over the past 6 hours as the mid level ridge existing east of the system is strengthening, producing a northerly steering flow.The motion is still slow right now but is expected to gradually fasten within the next days.

General forecast didn't change since the last issue. On the forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being rather favorable during the next 24 hours. On and after monday afternoon, system should evolve over marginal heat oceanic content associated with stronger vertical northwesterly wind shear ahead an upper troposheric trough. From tuesday night, system should curve southeastward and start its extra-tropical process with winds that should remain strong before easing at the end of the forecast period.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #109
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER BOPHA (T1224)
15:00 PM JST December 9 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Bopha (1004 hPa) located at 18.0N 120.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast slowly.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the Japan Meteorological Agency
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #108
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
12:00 PM JST December 9 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Bopha (1002 hPa) located at 18.4N 119.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.3N 120.2E - Tropical Depression in South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #24
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PABLO (BOPHA)
11:00 AM PhST December 9 2012
==============================

"PABLO" has weakened further as it remains almost stationary

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Pablo [997 hPa] located at 18.3°N 119.7°E or 80 km west of Laoag City has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast slowly.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon region
-------------
1. Ilocos Norte
2. Babuyan Gr. of Islands
3. Apayao

Additional Information
========================
Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere is now lowered.

Tropical Depression "Pablo" is expected to dissipate within the next 12 hours.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-10 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical cyclone

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern and central Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
9:00 AM FST December 9 2012
==================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, An area of disturbed weather (1004 hPa) located near 15.0N 152.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position FAIR based on satellite imagery and peripheral surface observations. Convection has not increased much in the past 24 hours

System lies in a moderate sheared environment and just west of an upper diffluent region. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Global models are further developing the system and moves it southwestwards.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #107
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
9:00 AM JST December 9 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Bopha (1002 hPa) located at 18.3N 119.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.6N 120.2E - Tropical Depression in South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
CYCLONE TROPICAL CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
4:30 AM RET December 9 2012
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Claudia (955 hPa) located at 15.0S 74.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/6.0/W1.0/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 55 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
================
75 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 130 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 130 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 160 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 180 Nm in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 16.6S 74.2E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 19.5S 73.6E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 24.3S 73.5E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
The eye pattern has deteriorated somewhat over the last 6 hours with warmer cloud tops and a ragged eye. At 0:00 AM UTC T number averaged over 6h and 3h are respectably At 5.1 and 5.2. PGTW and SAB are at 5.5. AMSU intensity estimate of 2038z with n19 (fov at 10) gives an estimate of 86 knots (10 min winds / 0.88 coeff) that is the basis for the present intensity estimate.

The system was quasi-stat just after 1800 PM UTC. Since that time, it has resumed, as expected, on a southwards track as the mid level ridge existing east of the system is strengthen, producing a northerly steering flow.The motion is still slow right now but is expected to gradually fasten within the next few days.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being favorable until this afternoon or tonight. Latest available objective numerical guidance (ALADIN 1200 PM UTC and STIPS 18:00 PM UTC) still show some disagreement. ALADIN-REUNION gradually weakens Claudia today and make it loose the tropical cyclone level Sunday night. STIPS suggest a max intensity at 100-105 knots later today ... The present forecast calls now for gradual weakening but not so aggressive as ALADIN-REUNION.

On and after monday, system is expected to evolve over marginal heat oceanic content associated with stronger vertical northerly wind shear. From Tuesday night or Wednesday, system should curve southeastward and start its extratropical process with winds that should remain strong before easing at the end of the forecast period.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #106
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
6:00 AM JST December 9 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Bopha (1002 hPa) located at 18.3N 119.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.4N 120.5E - Tropical Depression in South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #23
TROPICAL STORM PABLO (BOPHA)
5:00 AM PhST December 9 2012
==============================

"PABLO" continues to weaken as it moves toward Ilocos Norte.

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Pablo [987 hPa] located at 17.9°N 119.7°E or 85 km west of Laoag City has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots gusting up to 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 8 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #2
-----------------

Luzon Region
--------------
1. Ilocos Norte
2. Ilocos Sur
3. La Union

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon region
-------------
1. Cagayan
2. Calayan grp. of Is.
3. Babuyan grp. of Is.
4. Batanes grp. of Is.
5. Abra
6. Apayao
7. Kalinga
8. Mt. Province
9. Benguet
10. Pangasinan

Additional Information
========================
Public Storm Warning Signal elsewhere is now lowered.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the seaboard of northern Luzon and the western seaboards of central and southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #105
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (T1224)
3:00 AM JST December 9 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Bopha (1002 hPa) located at 18.3N 119.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.5N 120.4E - Tropical Depression in South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
22:30 PM RET December 8 2012
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Claudia (950 hPa) located at 14.6S 74.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 55 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
================
75 NM radius from the center, extending up to 95 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 160 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 16.0S 74.2E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 18.7S 73.7E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical
72 HRS: 22.7S 73.0E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================
The system has maintained an eye pattern associated with cold cloud tops during the last 6 hours. The average T-number over 6hrs and 3 hrs gives resp. 5.8 and 5.7. PGTW and SAB give respectly. 6.0 and 5.5. At 17:00 PM UTC, ADT give a 3hrs mean T-number at 5.9. Satcon at 16:00 PM UTC is at 107 knots (1 min winds). All this estimations suggest an intensity in the 95-100 knots range. However, latest available microwave imagery (SSMIS at 1230 PM UTC, 1449 PM UTC and AMSUB at 1628 PM UTC)show that a weakness exists in the eastern and southeastern eyewall (potentially due to the easterly constraints show by the CIMSS shear analysis at 12z). In fact the microwave signature does not suggest such an intensity. The final intensity is therefore assessed at 90 knots.

The system has slow down again on a west southwestward track as steering mid-tropospheric flow remains weak. Tomorrow, the mid level ridge existing east of the system is expected to strengthen, producing a northerly steering flow. Therefore Claudia should track southward at a gradual faster speed.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being favorable until Sunday night into monday. Latest available objective numerical guidance (ALADIN 1200 PM UTC and STIPS 1200 PM UTC) show some disagreement. ALADIN-REUNIONnow weakens Claudia tomorrow after a peak in max winds at 95 knots at 1500 PM UTC and 1800 PM UTC (right now). STIPS still suggest a max intensity at 95 knots tomorrow. The present forecast follows STIPS and remains in line with the previous package.

On and after Monday, system is expected to keep on tracking southward by getting around mid-level high pressures and so to evolve over marginal heat oceanic content associated with stronger vertical northerly wind shear. A weakening trend might start by that time. From Tuesday night or Wednesday, system should curve southeastward and start its extra-tropical process with winds that could remain strong.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #22
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
11:00 PM PhST December 8 2012
==============================

Typhoon "PABLO" has weakened as it continues to threaten the Ilocos Provinces and La Union area

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [976 hPa] located at 17.7°N 119.4°E or 115 km west of Vigan City has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots gusting up to 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 9 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #2
-----------------

Luzon Region
--------------
1. Ilocos Norte
2. Ilocos Sur
3. La Union

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon region
-------------
1. Cagayan
2. Calayan grp. of Is.
3. Babuyan grp. of Is.
4. Batanes grp. of Is.
5. Abra
6. Apayao
7. Kalinga
8. Mt. Province
9. Benguet
10. Pangasinan
11. Zambales

Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 300 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the seaboard of northern Luzon and the western seaboards of central and southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 a.m. tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #103
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
21:00 PM JST December 8 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (965 hPa) located at 17.9N 118.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.0N 120.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 16.7N 120.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 14.4N 119.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
CYCLONE TROPICAL CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
16:30 PM RET December 8 2012
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Claudia (953 hPa) located at 14.5S 74.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
25 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 15.5S 74.2E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 17.7S 73.9E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical
72 HRS: 21.4S 73.1E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================
Shortly after 0600 AM UTC, Claudia has continued to intensify then DT has stabilized around 5.5. After 0930 AM UTC, Dvorak signature has degraded. From 1100 AM UTC, DT has again improved and has reached 6.5 just at 1200 PM UTC. 6 hours average DT is 5.5-. Current intensity is fixed at 85 knots just below the intense tropical cyclone stage that should be achieved so imminent.

The system keep a slowly west southwestward track as steering mid-tropospheric flow remains weak. In this context, Claudia should continue on this drift today. Except ARPEGE, numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement on this track within the next 12 hours. Sunday, the mid level ridge existing east of the system is expected to strengthen, producing a northerly steering flow. Therefore Claudia should track southward.

On this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to keep on being favorable until Sunday night into Monday. Latest objective numerical guidance (ALADIN 0:00 AM UTC and STIPS 06:00 AM UTC) suggest a maximum intensity in the range of 90-100 knots within Sunday or Sunday night.

On and after Monday, system is expected to keep on tracking southward by getting around mid-level high pressures and so to evolve over marginal heat oceanic content associated with stronger vertical northerly wind shear. A weakening trend might start by that time. From Tuesday night or Wednesday, system should curve southeastward and start its extra-tropical process with winds that could remain strong.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #102
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
18:00 PM JST December 8 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (955 hPa) located at 17.7N 118.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.0N 120.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
45 HRS: 16.7N 119.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
69 HRS: 15.4N 118.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #21
TYPHOON PABLO (BOPHA)
5:00 PM PhST December 8 2012
==============================

Typhoon "PABLO" has maintained its strength and is now threatening the Ilocos provinces and La Union area

At 4:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Pablo [972 hPa] located at 17.5°N 118.3°E or 230 km west of Sinait, Ilocos Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots gusting up to 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast 9 knots.

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #2
-----------------

Luzon Region
--------------
1. Ilocos Norte
2. Ilocos Sur
3. La Union

Signal Warning #1
-----------------

Luzon region
-------------
1. Cagayan
2. Calayan grp. of Is.
3. Babuyan grp. of Is.
4. Batanes grp. of Is.
5. Abra
6. Apayao
7. Kalinga
8. Mt. Province
9. Benguet
10. Pangasinan
11. Zambales

Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 15-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Likewise, those living in coastal areas under public storm warning signal #2 are alerted against big waves or storm surges generated by this tropical cyclone.

Fishing boats and other sea vessels are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern Luzon and the western seaboards of central and southern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46266

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