November 1 2012 - December 31 2012

By: HadesGodWyvern , 11:25 PM GMT on October 31, 2012

Share this Blog
2
+

Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon 2012 season
=================================================
Information used for this blog are from

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

-----------------
Northwestern Pacific
-----------------
Japan Meteorological Agency: Tokyo
Hong Kong Observatory: China
Typhoon 2000: Philippines
PAGASA: Manila, Philippines

------------------
Northern Indian Ocean
--------------------
India Meteorological Department: New Delphi
Thailand Meteorological Department

------------------------
Northeastern Pacific Ocean
------------------------
National Hurricane Center: Miami, FL

-------------------------
Central Northeastern Pacific
----------------------------
Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Honolulu, Hawaii

---------------------------
Southern Indian Ocean
---------------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta: Indonesia
Mauritius Meteorological Service
Reunion Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

--------------------------
Southern Pacific Ocean
-----------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Fiji Meteorological Services: Nadi
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center: Wellington

=========================================

=======================
Northeast Pacific Ocean
========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Miami National Hurricane Center

National Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

October
EP172012.Rosa - 1000 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
=======================
North Central Pacific Ocean
========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Honolulu National Hurricane Center

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================



-------------------------------------------------

========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26 - 1004 hPa
T201224.Bopha/Pablo - 930 hPa

December
T201225.Wukong/Quinta - 998 hPa
-------------------------------------------------
========================
North Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

October
BOB02-2012.Nilam - 992 hPa

November
BOB03-2012.NONAME - 1002 hPa

December
ARB02-2012.NONAME - 1002 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
Southwestern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Seychelles Meteorological Services
Mauritius Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November
02R.NONAME - 1004 hPa
03R.Boldwin - 987 hPa

December
04R.Claudia - 950 hPa
05R.NONAME - 995 hPa

------------------------------------------------

Southeastern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Bureau Of Meteorology: Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Bureau of Meteorology: Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning center Jakarta

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

December
04U.MITCHELL - 990 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
Southwestern Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Bureau Of Meteorology: Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Bureau Of Meteorology: Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Papua New Guinea

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

December
03U.FREDA - 980 hPa (within AOR)

-------------------------------------------------
Southwestern Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Fiji Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

November
01F.NONAME - 991 hPa
02F.NONAME - 1001 hPa

December
03F.NONAME - 997 hPa
04F.Evan - 943 hPa
05F/03U.FREDA - 940 hPa (within AOR)
06F.NONAME - 1005 hPa

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 361 - 311

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28
12:00 PM JST December 24 2012
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Mindanao

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 8.0N 132.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 8.8N 127.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Mindanao (Philippines)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28
9:00 AM JST December 24 2012
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of Mindanao

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 7.8N 132.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 8.8N 128.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of Mindanao (Philippines)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
... but I can still comment, lol!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I can't get the shockwave-flash embedded at the top of your blog entry to show up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB02-2012
17:30 PM IST December 23 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The deep depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved west southwestward and now lays near 8.5N 57.0E or about 1700 m west southwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep), 700 km southeast of Ras Binnah (Somalia), and about 550 km south southeast of Socotra Island (Yemen).

The system is likely to intensify further and move west southwestward, crossing Somalia coast between 1200-1800 PM (December 25th).

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -70C. Associated broken low/medium clouds with intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 5.0N to 12.5N and 49.5E to 63.0E and northeast Somalia.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots gusting up to 40 knots. The central pressure of the deep depression is 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the center of the system.

Considering the environmental features, the Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude <1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to move to phase 3 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 27-29C. Around system center and it gradually decreases towards Somalia coast. The ocean thermal energy is 50-70 kj/cm2 around the system center. It decreases towards Somalia coast. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center and providing poleward outflow for intensification. The low level convergence has increased during past 12 hrs as well as lower level relative vorticity. The upper level divergence shows no change. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate to high (15-25 knots) around system center. Hence, it has increased during past 12 hrs. As some features are favorable and others are not favorable, it may intensify into a marginal cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 8.1N 55.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 7.7N 53.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 6.9N 49.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB02-2012
8:30 AM IST December 23 2012
===================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea moved westwards and now lays near 9.0N 60.0E, or about 1200 km west southwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep).

The system is likely to intensify further and move west southwestwards and cross Somalia coast on December 25th around 1200-1800 PM UTC.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB02-2012
5:30 AM IST December 23 2012
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea moved westward and intensified into a deep depression. Deep Depression ARB02 lays near 9.0N 60.5E or about 1350 km west southwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep), 1050 km east southeast of Ras Binnah (Somalia), and about 800 km southeast of Socotra Island (Yemen).

The system is likely to intensify further and move west southwestward, crossing Somalia coast between 1200-1800 PM UTC (December 25th).

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -75C. Associated broken low/medium clouds with intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 5.0N and 12.5N and 52.5E and 65.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots gusting up to 40 knots. The central pressure of the deep depression is 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough around the center of the system.

The latest ASCAT observation at 1644 PM UTC (December 22) indicates maximum surface wind of 30 knots in the northern sector and 15-20 knots in the southern sector of the deep depression.

Considering the environmental features, the Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude <1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to move to phase 3 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 28-30C. Around system center and it gradually decreases towards Somalia coast. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It decreases towards Somalia coast. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center and providing poleward outflow for intensification. The low level convergence has increased during past 12 hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is low (5-10 knots) around system center, which favors intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 8.8N 57.5E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 8.6N 55.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 8.0N 51.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 7.4N 49.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION ARB02-2012
17:30 PM IST December 22 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The depression over southwest and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea moved westward and now lays near 9.0N 62.5E, or about 1150 km west southwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep) and about 1000 km southeast of Soctra Island (Yemen).

The system is likely to intensify further and move westward towards Somalia coast during the next 72 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the depression is T1.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -70C. Associated broken low/medium clouds with intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 5.0N and 12.5N and 56.0E and 69.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots gusting up to 35 knots. The central pressure of the depression is 1004 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the system.

The latest ASCAT observation at 541 AM UTC indicates maximum surface winds of 20-25 knots in the northern sector and 15-20 knots in the southern sector of the depression.

Considering the environmental features, the Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude <1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to move to phase 3 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 28-30C. Around system center and it gradually decreases towards Somalia coast. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It decreases towards Somalia coast. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence has increased during past 12 hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is low to moderate (5-15 knots) around system center. There is no change in wind shear during past 24 hrs.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION ARB02-2012
14:30 PM IST December 22 2012
===================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Latest satellite imagery and observations indicate that a depression has formed over southwest and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea and lays centered near 9.0N 63.0E, or about 1100 km west southwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep).

The system is likely to intensify further and move westwards during next 72 hrs.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST December 22 2012
===================================

A Low Pressure Area has formed over southeast and adjoining southwest Arabian Sea. The system would concentrate into a depression during the next 24 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
351. whitewabit (Mod)
HGW .. how much snow are they calling for you to get .. looks like just 1-2 inches around me unless the low stays farther south ..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER EVAN (04F)
0:00 AM FST December 20 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Evan located at 24.2S 178.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southeast at 7 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Deep convection reduced significantly in past 12 hours and lies to the southeast of a partially exposed low level circulation center. System lies in a high sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 26C. Dvorak analysis based on 100 NM shear distance from deep convection edge yielding DT=2.0, MET=2.5, PT=1.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W2.0/24 HRS

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on EVAN..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #34
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY ONE (04F)
18:00 PM FST December 19 2012
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Evan (987 hPa) located at 23.0S 178.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
110 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Deep convection reduced significantly past 3 hours and lies to the southeast of partially exposed low level circulation center. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the south and restricted elsewhere. EVAN lies in a high sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 26C. Dvorak analysis based on 70 NM shear distance from deep convection edge yielding DT=2.0, MET=3.0, PT=2.5. Final Dvorak T number based on PT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W2.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 24.3S 177.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
xx - Out of area of responsibility
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY TWO (04F)
12:00 PM FST December 19 2012
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Evan (982 hPa) located at 22.6S 177.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 7 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds
====================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Deep convection lies to the southeast of the exposed low level circulation center. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the south and restricted elsewhere. EVAN lies in a high sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 26C. Dvorak analysis based on sheared pattern of distance 40NM from deep convection edge yielding DT=2.5, MET=3.5, PT=3.0. Final Dvorak T number based on PT. CI held up due to cyclone weakening.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W2.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 23.6S 177.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 24.9S 177.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
xx - Out of area of responsibility
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY TWO (04F)
6:00 AM FST December 19 2012
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Evan (975 hPa) located at 22.2S 178.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 7 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS infrared imagery.

Storm Force Winds
====================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
160 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Deep convection lies just south of partially exposed low level circulation center. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the south and restricted elsewhere. EVAN lies in a high sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 25C. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern giving DT=3.5, MET=3.5, PT=4.0. Final Dvorak T number based on DT. CI held 0.5 higher than Final Dvorak T number due to Dvorak constraint.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 23.4S 178.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 24.8S 177.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY THREE (04F)
0:00 AM FST December 19 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (963 hPa) located at 21.6S 177.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 7 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
15 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
160 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle
100 NM from the center elsewhere

Deep convection persistent over low level circulation center in past 12 hours. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the south and restricted elsewhere. EVAN lies in a high sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center with LG surround giving DT=4.5, MET=4.0, PT=4.5. Final Dvorak T number based on MET. CI held up by 0.5 of FT as cyclone weakens.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 22.7S 177.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 23.9S 177.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 26.6S 177.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY THREE (04F)
18:00 PM FST December 18 2012
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (970 hPa) located at 20.9S 177.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 6 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
15 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
160 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle
100 NM from the center elsewhere

Deep convection persistent over low level circulation center in past 12 hours. Cyclone lies east of an upper trough. EVAN lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the south but restricted elsewhere. System lies in a high sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center with B surround giving DT=5.0, MET=4.5, PT=4.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT. CI held up due to initial weakening.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 22.2S 177.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 23.5S 177.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 26.5S 177.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY THREE (04F)
12:00 PM FST December 18 2012
===================================

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR KADAVU (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (970 hPa) located at 20.3S 177.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 8 knots. Position good based on visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
15 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Area of deep convection has decreased in the last 12 hours. Eye discernible in visible past 3 hours. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the south but restricted elsewhere. EVAN lies in a moderate to heavy sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center with B surround giving DT=5.0, MET=5.0, PT=4.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 21.5S 177.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 22.5S 177.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 24.9S 177.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #28
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY THREE (04F)
6:00 AM FST December 18 2012
===================================

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CORAL COAST, KADAVU, BEQA, VATULELE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (970 hPa) located at 19.6S 177.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
15 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
70 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Area of deep convection has decreased in the last 12 hours. Eye cloud filled in the last 3 hours. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center with LG surround giving DT=4.5 MET=5.0 PT=5.0. Final Dvorak T number based on DT. CI held at 5.0 due to Dvorak constraints.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/W1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 20.9S 177.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 22.0S 178.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 24.1S 177.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN warning update
============================================

A HURRICANE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR CORAL COAST, VATULELE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS IS NOW CANCELLED. (Fiji/Rotuma)

A STORM WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN FORCE FOR MAMANUCA GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM LAUTOKA TO NAVUA IS NOW CANCELLED. (Fiji/Rotuma)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CORAL COAST, KADAVU, BEQA, VATULELE AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS. (Fiji/Rotuma)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
0:00 AM FST December 17 2012
===================================

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MAMANUCA GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM LAUTOKA TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS. (Fiji/Rotuma)

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE INTERIOR OF VITI LEVU, YASAWA GROUP AND VATULELE. (Fiji/Rotuma)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS. (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (943 hPa) located at 17.9S 177.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 9 knots. Position good based on radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
100 NM from the center in northeast quadrant

Convection remains persistent in the last 24 hours, Eye starting to get cloud filled in the last 3 hours. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern, MG eye with LG surround.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 20.0S 177.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 21.1S 177.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 23.2S 177.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
18:00 PM FST December 17 2012
===================================

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR MAMANUCA GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM LAUTOKA TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS. (Fiji/Rotuma)

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE INTERIOR OF VITI LEVU, YASAWA GROUP AND VATULELE. (Fiji/Rotuma)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS. (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (945 hPa) located at 17.9S 177.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots. Position good based on radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Ragged eye discernible in infrared imagery. Eye well define in Nadi radar imagery. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center W surround yielding DT=5.0, MET=6.0, PT=5.5. Final Dvorak T number based on PT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/S0.0/24 HRS

CI held up due to initial weakening of cyclone through land interaction.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 19.0S 176.8E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 20.3S 176.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 22.8S 176.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN Warning Update
-------------------------------------------

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM BA TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS. (Fiji/Rotuma)

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE INTERIOR OF VITI LEVU AND VATULELE. (Fiji/Rotuma)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR BUA PROVINCE, LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS. (Fiji/Rotuma)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
12:00 PM FST December 17 2012
===================================

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP, WEST OF THE LINE FROM RAKIRAKI TO SIGATOKA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE BUA PROVINCE AND INTERIOR OF VITI LEVU (Fiji/Rotuma)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR TAVEUNI, THE REST OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA, VATULELE AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (945 hPa) located at 17.2S 177.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots. Position good based on radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Deep convection persistent in past 24 hours over low level circulation center. Eye visible in radar and visible/infrared imagery. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with MG eye in W surround

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24 HRS.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 18.6S 176.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 20.0S 176.4E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 22.3S 176.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
6:00 AM FST December 17 2012
===================================

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP (Fiji/Rotuma)

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE BUA PROVINCE, WESTERN PARTS OF VITI LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, THE REST OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA, VATULELE AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (945 hPa) located at 16.4S 178.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 13 knots. Position good based on radar imagery/multispectral enhanced infrared radar and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
60 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant

Eye becomingdiscernable in enhanced infrared radar. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 28C. Dvorak analysis based on eye patter with B eye in CMG surround.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 17.0S 177.5E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.2S 176.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.7S 176.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST December 16 2012
==============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (1005 hPa) located at 20.1S 154.5W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on mulitspectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has not improved in the past 24 hours. Convection has not improved in the last 24 hours. System lies in a high sheared environment and under and upper level trough. Low level circulation center exposed with convection displaced to the east and northeast.

Global models have picked up the system with no further development

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY ISSUED FOR TD03F.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
0:00 AM FST December 17 2012
===================================

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP (Fiji/Rotuma)

A STORM WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE BUA PROVINCE, WESTERN PARTS OF VITI LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, THE REST OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA, VATULELE AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (950 hPa) located at 15.6S 179.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 11 knots. Position good based on radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
35 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant

Organization has improved in the past 24 hours. Eye visible in radar imagery. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on eye pattern with MG eye in CMG surrounding.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 16.9S 177.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.1S 176.7E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.8S 176.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
18:00 PM FST December 16 2012
===================================

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP. (Fiji/Rotuma)

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP AND VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS. (Fiji/Rotuma)

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR KADAVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS. (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (960 hPa) located at 14.8S 179.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 11 knots. Position good based on radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
130 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant

Deep convection persistent past 24 hours over low level circulation center. Eye visible in radar imagery. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center W surround yielding DT=5.5, MET=5.5, PT=5.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 16.2S 178.2E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 17.6S 176.5E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 20.4S 175.3E - 85 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
12:00 PM FST December 16 2012
===================================

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LAU GROUP AND IS NOW IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUPS AND NORTHERN HALF OF VITI LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS (Fiji/Rotuma)

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR REST OF VITI LEVU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP. (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (960 hPa) located at 14.2S 178.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 14 knots. Position good based on radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant

Deep convection persistent in past 24 hour over low level circulation center. Eye discernible in visible imagery. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a moderate to high sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center W surround yielding DT=5.5, MET=6.0, PT=5.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 15.4S 179.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 16.9S 177.1E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 19.7S 175.3E - 85 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST December 16 2012
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (1004 hPa) located at 21.0S 157.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has not improved in the past 24 hours. Convection has not improved in the last 24 hours. EVAN lies in a moderate to high sheared environment and under an upper level trough. Low level circulation center exposed with convection displaced to the east and northeast.

Global models have picked up the system with no further development.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
6:00 AM FST December 16 2012
===================================

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LAU GROUP (Fiji/Rotuma)

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, LOMAIVITI, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (960 hPa) located at 13.5S 177.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
45 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
110 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant

Deep convection persistent in past 24 hours over low level circulation center. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the south. EVAN lies in a low to moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center CDG surroun yielding DT=5.0, MET=5.5, PT=5.5. Final Dvorak T number based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/S0.0/ 24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.4S 179.8W - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 15.5S 178.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 18.2S 175.9E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
0:00 AM FST December 16 2012
===================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, LOMAIVITI, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUPS (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (960 hPa) located at 13.4S 176.7W has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 10 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
45 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
110 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
120 NM from the center elsewhere

Deep convection persistent past 24 hours over low level circulation center. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center CDG surround yielding DT=5.0, MET=5.5, PT=5.0. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.2S 178.6W - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 15.1S 179.5E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 17.1S 176.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST December 15 2012
=============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (1003 hPa) located at 20.0S 161.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has not improve in the past 24 hours. Convection has not improved in the last 24 hours. System lies in a moderate to high sheared environment and under and upper level trough. Low level circulation center exposed with convection displaced to the east and northeast.

Global models have picked up the system with no further development.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
18:00 PM FST December 15 2012
===================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LAU GROUP. (Fiji/Rotuma)

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, LOMAIVITI, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUPS. (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (960 hPa) located at 13.0S 175.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
45 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
110 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
120 NM from the center elsewhere

Deep convection persistent in past 24 hours over low level circulation center. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a moderately sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center CDG surround yielding DT=5.0, MET=5.5, PT=5.0. Final Dvorak T number based on DT. CI held up due to initial weakening constraints.

The consensus of the global models move this system west southwestwards with further intensification in the next 24-36 hours, weakening thereafter

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 13.8S 177.2W - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 14.8S 179.3W - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 17.1S 177.4E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
12:00 PM FST December 15 2012
===================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LAU GROUP. (Fiji/Rotuma)

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR VITI LEVU, LOMAIVITI, YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUPS. (Fiji/Rotuma)

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (960 hPa) located at 12.6S 174.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 6 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
45 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
100 NM from the center elsewhere

Deep convection persistent past 24 hours over low level circulation center. Eye discernible in visible imagery. Cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. EVAN lies in a moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center W surround yielding DT=5.5, MET=5.5, PT=5.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 13.3S 176.5W - 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 14.2S 178.8W - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 16.3S 177.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
6:00 AM FST December 15 2012
=============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (1002 hPa) located at 19.0S 160.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position fair based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has not improved in the past 24 hours. Convection has not improved in the last 24 hours. System lies in a moderate to high sheared environment and under an upper level trough. Low level circulation center exposed with convection displaced to the east and northeast.

Global models have picked up the system with no further development
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST December 14 2012
=============================

at 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (1001 hPa) located at 18.0S 161.5W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has not improved in the past 24 hours. Convection has not improved in the last 24 hours. System lies in a moderate to high sheared environment and under an upper level trough. Low level circulation exposed with convection displaced to the northeast.

Global models have picked up the system with no further development.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
6:00 AM FST December 15 2012
===================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN FORCE FOR VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND THE NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS AND NORTHERN LAU GROUP IN FIJI/ROTUMA

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (960 hPa) located at 12.5S 174.4W has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 16 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
45 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
100 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Deep convection persistent in past 12 hours over low level circulation center. Cyclone under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. System lies in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. EVAN is being steered west by a deep layer mean east. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center CMG surrounding yielding DT=5.5, MET=5.5, PT=5.5. Final Dvorak T number based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 12.9S 176.2W - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.8S 178.4W - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 15.8S 177.7E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY FOUR (04F)
18:00 PM FST December 14 2012
===================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUAFO'OU IN TONGA

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS INCLUDING NORTHERN LAU GROUP IN FIJI/ROTUMA

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (960 hPa) located at 12.9S 172.1W has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 2 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
35 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Deep convection persistent in past 12 hours over low level circulation center. Cyclone intensifying over the last 12 hours. EVAN lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the north and south. System lies in a moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center CMG surround yielding DT=5.5, MET=5.5, PT=5.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 13.3S 173.4W - 100 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.7S 175.3W - 110 knots (CAT 5/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 15.4S 179.6W - 105 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY THREE (04F)
12:00 PM FST December 14 2012
===================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUATOPUTAPU AND NIUAFO'OU IN TONGA

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR VANUA LEVU, TAVEUNI AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS INCLUDING NORTHERN LAU GROUP IN FIJI/ROTUMA

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (965 hPa) located at 13.0S 171.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 5 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS visible/infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
35 NM from the center in northern semi-circle and within 24 NM from the center elsewhere

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center in the northern semi-circle and within 40 NM from the center elsewhere

Deep convection persistent over past 24 hours, EVAN has intensified over the last 12 hours. Cyclone lies under and upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the south. EVAN lies in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center CMG surround yielding DT of 5.0, MET=5.0, and PT=5.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/2 4HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 13.1S 172.8W - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.3S 174.4W - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.6S 178.4W- 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST December 14 2012
=======================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (1001 hPa) located at 18.0S 161.5W is reported as slowly moving. Position good based on multispectral visible/infrared imagery and peripheral surface observatins. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has not improved in the past 24 hours. Convection has not improved in the last 24 hours. System lies in a moderate to high sheared environment and under an upper level trough. Low level circulation center with convection displaced to the northeast.

Global models have picked up the system with no further development.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY THREE (04F)
6:00 AM FST December 14 2012
===================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUATOPUTAPU AND NIUAFO'OU IN TONGA

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (970 hPa) located at 13.4S 171.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 3 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
45 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Deep convection persistent past 12 hours. EVAN lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the south and north. System lies in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. EVAN is currently being steered to the north northwest by a deep layer mean south southeast. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center CMG surrounding yielding DT=5.0, MET=5.0, PT=5.0. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 13.5S 172.3W - 85 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 13.8S 173.3W - 90 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.8S 176.6W- 95 knots (CAT 4/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY THREE (04F)
0:00 AM FST December 14 2012
===================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUATOPUTAPU AND NIUAFO'OU IN TONGA

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (972 hPa) located at 13.9S 171.3W has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 4 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
35 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Deep convection persistent in past 12 hours. Cyclone continues to intensify but eye becoming cloud filled in the last 3 hours. EVAN lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the south. System lies in low sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center LG surround yielding DT=4.5, MET=4.0, PT=4.5. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 13.9S 171.6W - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 14.1S 172.6W - 80 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.9S 176.0W- 85 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
18:00 PM FST December 13 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 03F (1001 hPa) located at 18.0S 159.0W is reported as slowly moving. Position good based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperatures is around 29C.

Organization has not improved in the past 24 hours. Convection has not improved in the last 24 hours. System lies in a moderate to high sheared environment and under an upper level trough. Low level circulation center is exposed with convection displaced to the northeast.

Global models have picked up the system with no further development.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY THREE (04F)
18:00 PM FST December 13 2012
===================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUATOPUTAPU AND NIUAFO'OU IN TONGA

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan (975 hPa) located at 14.0S 171.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 3 knots. Position good based on hourly GMS infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
35 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Deep convection persistent past 12 hours. Cyclone intensifying over the last 12 hours. EVAN lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow good to the south. System lies in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on embedded center LG surround yielding DT=4.5, MET=4.0, PT=4.5. Final T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 14.0S 171.1W - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 14.1S 171.7W - 75 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.9S 174.9W - 85 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
10:30 AM RET December 13 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Cyclone, Former Claudia (995 hPa) located at 28.6S 76.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: NIL

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
45 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 175 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 215 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 31.4S 79.2E - Depression Extratropicale
48 HRS: 34.3S 83.4E - Depression Extratropicale
72 HRS: 38.5S 94.4E - Depression Extratropicale

Additional Information
=====================
Last OSCAT pass at 1856 PM UTC shows a very asymmetrical winds, with the strongest winds far from the center in the eastern semi-circle, due to the gradient with the high pressures in the east.

Global philosophy remains the same: gradual speed up in a southeastwards track and then, Saturday, over the southern edge of the subtropical ridge, an eastwards motion at a slower rate.

Winds might remain strong until Friday in the eastern then northern sectors by gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures.

Last warning about this system, unless re-intensification, it will be closely monitored until final dissipation into FQIO21 FMEE warning.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN, CATEGORY TWO (04F)
12:00 PM FST December 13 2012
===================================

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR NIUATOPUTAPU AND NIUAFO'OU IN TONGA

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Evan (975 hPa) located at 14.0S 171.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 6 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Storm Force Winds
====================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
45 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
45 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Deep convection persistent past 24 hours with primary bands wrapping tightly around low level circulation center. Cloud filled eye discernible on visible imagery. The cyclone lies under an upper diffluent region. Outflow developing. System lies in a moderately sheared environment and is being steered eastwards by a westerly deep layer mean flow. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C. Dvorak analysis based on 1.1 wrap, yielding DT=4.0 MET and PT agrees. Final T number based on DT

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 13.9S 170.9W - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 14.0S 171.2W - 65 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.9S 173.7W - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN (04F) - LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PAGO PAGO AS
112 PM SST WED DEC 12 2012

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR AMERICAN SAMOA...
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #28
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE CLAUDIA (04-20122013)
4:30 AM RET December 13 2012
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Cyclone, Former Claudia (993 hPa) located at 27.5S 75.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: NIL

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 105 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant, up to 160 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 170 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 34.1S 81.2E - Depression Extratropicale
48 HRS: 39.0S 92.1E - Depression Extratropicale
72 HRS: 39.9S 102.4E - Se Dissipant

Additional Information
=====================
Current intensity is assessed with OSCAT pass at 1856 PM UTC that show uncontaminated winds at 40 knots in the northeastern quadrant with the fact that the overall pattern of ex-Claudia has not changed much since that time.

Ex-Claudia shows now a typical fully extratropical pattern. Phasis diagram at 1800 PM UTC made with AMSU data suggest that the system was by that time, in the shallow/ asymmetric warm core phasis. Given that and the current pattern on infrared imagery, the system is now classified as an extratropical system.

The system seems to have slow down a bit during the night. However global philosophy has not changed much: gradual speed up in a southeastwards track and then, Saturday, over the southern edge of the subtropical ridge, an eastwards motion at a slower rate.

Winds might remain strong until Friday in the eastern then northern sectors by gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43649

Viewing: 361 - 311

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10Blog Index

Top of Page

About HadesGodWyvern