Currently No Tropical Cyclones

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA (EP172012)
2:00 PM PDT October 31 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: "ROSA" creeping westward..

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Rosa (1003 hPa) located at 14.2N 117.9W or 695 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 14.3N 118.6W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.0N 119.0W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 13.8N 119.6W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER NILAM (BOB02-2012)
23:30 PM IST October 31 2012
=============================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, the cyclonic storm moved northwestward and weakened into a deep depression. Deep Depression, Former Nilam now lays over northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining areas of Rayalaseema and interior Karnataka or near 13.5N 78.5E. The system is likely to move west northwestward and weaken further into a depression during the next 12 hours

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA (EP172012)
8:00 PM PDT October 31 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: "ROSA" Strengthens A Little While Moving Slowly Westward..

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Rosa (1000 hPa) located at 14.1N 118.1W or 705 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 14.1N 118.6W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 13.9N 119.0W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 14.0N 119.5W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
DEPRESSION, FORMER NILAM (BOB02-2012)
5:30 AM IST November 1 2012
=============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over northern Tamil Nadu and neighborhood moved northwestward and weakened into a depression over Rayalaseema and adjoining area of southern interior Karnataka. Depression, Former Nilam lay centered near 14.0N 77.5E, or a bout 75 km south of Anantapur. The system is likely to move west northwestwards and weaken further into a low pressure area during the next 12 hours.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
DEPRESSION, FORMER NILAM (BOB02-2012)
8:30 AM IST November 1 2012
=============================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over Rayalaseema and adjoining area of southern interior Karnataka moved westward and now lays near 14.0N 76.5E, near Chitradurga. The system will likely move northwestward and weaken further into a low pressure area during the next 12 hours.

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA (EP172012)
2:00 AM PDT November 1 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: "ROSA" Moving Westward Slowly...

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Rosa (1000 hPa) located at 14.1N 118.3W or 715 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 13.9N 118.5W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 13.4N 118.8W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 14.0N 119.0W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
DEPRESSION, FORMER NILAM (BOB02-2012)
17:30 PM IST November 1 2012
=============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The depression over south Interior Karnataka and neighborhood remained practically stationary. Depression, Former Nilam lays centered near 14.0N 76.5E or near Chitradurga. The system is likely to move slowly northwestward and weaken further into a low pressure area during the next 12 hours.

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA (EP172012)
8:00 AM PDT November 1 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: "ROSA" Now Drifting West Southwestward..

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Rosa (1003 hPa) located at 13.9N 118.4W or 730 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 13.6N 118.6W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 13.5N 118.8W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 14.2N 119.0W - Low Pressure Area

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA (EP172012)
2:00 PM PDT November 1 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: "ROSA" Meandering..

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Rosa (1003 hPa) located at 13.5N 118.4W or 740 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 13.1N 118.5W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 13.3N 118.7W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 14.1N 119.2W - Low Pressure Area

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA (EP172012)
8:00 PM PDT November 1 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: "ROSA" Currently Stationary..

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Rosa (1003 hPa) located at 13.7N 118.4W or 735 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 13.5N 118.6W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 13.7N 118.8W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 14.9N 119.2W - Low Pressure Area

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER NILAM (BOB02-2012)
8:30 AM IST November 2 2012
=============================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Yesterday's depression over southern Interior Karnataka and neighborhood weakened into a well marked low pressure area and now lays over northern Interior Karnataka and adjoining Rayalaseema. The system would likely weaken further during the next 12 hours.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the India Meteorological Department

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA (EP172012)
2:00 AM PDT November 2 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: "ROSA" Weakening..

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Rosa (1005 hPa) located at 13.3N 118.5W or 755 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 13.0N 118.9W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 13.2N 119.5W - Low Pressure Area

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA (EP172012)
8:00 AM PDT November 2 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: "ROSA" Gradually Losing Strength..

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Rosa (1006 hPa) located at 13.2N 118.6W or 765 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
==================
60 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 13.0N 119.1W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 13.4N 119.8W - Low Pressure Area

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA (EP172012)
2:00 PM PDT November 2 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: "ROSA" Moving A Little Faster Southwestward..

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Rosa (1005 hPa) located at 12.7N 119.0W or 800 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 12.6N 119.8W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 13.1N 120.6W - Low Pressure Area

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA (EP172012)
8:00 PM PDT November 2 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: "ROSA" Moving West Southwestward Little Change In Strength..

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Rosa (1005 hPa) located at 12.7N 119.4W or 820 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 12.8N 120.1W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 13.5N 120.9W - Low Pressure Area

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM FST November 3 2012
================================

A tropical disturbance is expected to develop near Fiji around November 6th.

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA (EP172012)
2:00 AM PDT November 3 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: "ROSA" Maintaining Tropical Storm Status..

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Rosa (1005 hPa) located at 12.6N 119.7W or 835 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 12.8N 120.5W - Low Pressure Area

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA (EP172012)
8:00 AM PDT November 3 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: "ROSA" Weakens..

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Rosa (1006 hPa) located at 12.7N 120.4W or 855 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 13.0N 121.1W - Low Pressure Area

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER ROSA (EP172012)
2:00 PM PDT November 3 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: "ROSA" Weakens Into A Tropical Depression..

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Rosa (1006 hPa) located at 12.7N 120.8W or 875 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 13.2N 121.2W - Low Pressure Area

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER ROSA (EP172012)
8:00 PM PDT November 3 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: "ROSA" Expected To Become A Remnant Low Soon..

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Rosa (1007 hPa) located at 12.7N 121.2W or 890 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 13.2N 121.8W - Low Pressure Area

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER ROSA (EP172012)
2:00 AM PST November 3 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: "ROSA" Continues To Weaken..

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Rosa (1009 hPa) located at 12.5N 121.5W or 910 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 12.8N 122.1W - Low Pressure Area

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER ROSA (EP172012)
7:00 AM PST November 3 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: "ROSA" Expected To Become A Remnant Low Later Today...

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Rosa (1009 hPa) located at 12.5N 121.2W or 900 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 12.9N 121.8W - Low Pressure Area

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
4:00 AM PST November 4 2012
===================================

A well-defined low pressure system located about 330 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Some development of this system is possible today before upper-level winds become unfavorable for development by Monday as it moves slowly northeastward today and northward by Monday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
==================================
There is a MODERATE chance of this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours

RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET November 4 2012
===================================

Recent multi-spectral and scatterometry imagery does not currently allow to depict a clockwise low level circulation and any available numerical weather prediction model do not deep a significant low in this area within the next 3 days.

On and after Thursday or Friday, deterministic ECMWF model forecasts a signal of a deepening low near 10S 60E shifting westwards. Its ensemble prediction system show a low probability for a significant cyclogenesis in this area.

Development of a tropical depression is not expected for the next 72 hours.

National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER ROSA (EP172012)
1:00 PM PST November 3 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Rosa (1009 hPa) located at 12.6N 121.5W or 900 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the National Hurricane Center..

RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET November 5 2012
===================================

Recent multi-spectral and scatterometry imagery does not currently allow to depict a clockwise low level circulation and any available numerical weather prediction model do not deep a significant low in this area within the next 2 days.

Last available deterministic numerical weather prediction models and ensemble ECMWF prediction system still forecast that a weak low level clockwise circulation may deepen south of 10S and between 60E and 65E on and after Thursday.

There is no potential for development of a tropical depression for the next 48 hours, potential
becomes poor on Thursday.

RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET November 6 2012
===================================

Associated convective activity is particularly active from Equator to 13S between 60E and 80E. It is
still badly organized and fluctuating. Recent multispectral and scatterometry imagery does not
currently allow to depict a clockwise low level circulation. However, a movement seems to begin
between 65E and 75E around 8S.

For the next 2 days, last available numerical weather prediction models forecast favorable environmental conditions for cyclogenesis within the previously mentioned area. Low level inflow is expected to improve equator and polar sides and the east-northeasterly vertical wind shear should decrease on the northwestern edge of an high tropospheric ridge. Sea surface temperatures are sufficient at about 27-28C. Nevertheless, beyond 48-60 hours, wind shear is forecast to notably increase and should rapidly limit development of the system that might move south-westward on the low-mid level high pressures situated in the southeast.

There is no potential for development of a tropical depression for the next 24 hours. Potential becomes fair to good from Wednesday to Thursday.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
6:00 AM FST November 7 2012
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, LOW [1005HPA] LOCATED NEAR 20.0S 173.0E. THE LOW IS REPORTED AS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F
9:00 AM FST November 7 2012
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 01F (1003 hPa) located at 21.0S 176.0E. Position poor based on multispectral visible and peripheral surface observations. The disturbance is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Sea surface temperature is around 26C.

Tropical Disturbance 01 lies just to the east of an upper level trough in a high sheared environment. Global models have picked up the system and moves it southeastward with further development.

Potential for tropical disturbance 01 to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is LOW.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F
21:00 PM FST November 7 2012
============================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 01F (1002 hPa) located at 23.8S 177.8E. Position poor based on multispectral infrared and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 25C. The disturbance is reported as moving southeast at 15 knots.

Tropical disturbance 01 lies under an upper level trough in a very high sheared environment. Global models have picked up the system and move it southeastward with little development.

Potential for this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is VERY LOW.

RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET November 7 2012
===================================

At 1030Z, the center is located near 10.5S 66.3E with an estimated mean sea level pressure at 1007 hPa and winds in the 10-20 knots range, reaching locally 25 kt far to the north and south of the low level circulation center. Initial motion is rather uncertain but is estimated to be southwards at 10-15 knots.

Wind shear appears to be the main limited factor for further development. However the shear is
easing and this trend should continue trough tomorrow afternoon associated with fair upper level
divergence. Some slow development is possible until that time. Beyond, a sharp increase in the
wind shear is expected. Available numerical weather prediction models analyze this low but none show significant deepening within the next few days as they move the low generally west southwestwards.

The potential for development of a tropical depression for the next 24 hours is poor to fair and
becomes null beyond.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 01F
9:00 AM FST November 8 2012
============================

Tropical Disturbance 01F has moved south of 25S.. no further tropical disturbance summaries will be issued on this system.

RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET November 9 2012
===================================

A near equatorial Trough extends north of 10S east of 75E. Associated convective activity remains scattered and very fluctuating but locally strong northward and southward along a low level shear line stretching on a 08S 83E - 03S 93E axis. East northeasterly vertical wind shear is expected to keep on being rather strong in this area within the next 2-3 days. Beyond, potential for cyclogenesis is forecast to become good next week according to ECMWF ensemble strike probability.

A broad ill-defined low level clockwise circulation extends up to 600 km from the center of exposed low level circulation center approximately located at 1030Z near 11.5S 61.5E. Associated convective activity is very scattered and extends mainly far away from the center and especially in the southeastern semi-circle. Mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1007 hPa and ASCAT path of this morning suggests winds at about 10-15 kt near the center, reaching 20-25 kt far away from the center in the southeastern quadrant due to gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. System is moving west southwestward at about 8-10 kt.

Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement and do not deepen the low within the next days. Oceanic heat content is marginal and a rather strong north easterly wind shear should remain on the expected west southwestward track.

For the next 60 hours, development of a tropical depression is not expected. From Monday, potential becomes poor within the area located east of the basin.

RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET November 10 2012
===================================

A near equatorial Trough extends north of 10S east of 68E. Within the NET, convective activity is locally moderate to strong between 80E and 85E. ASCAT data of this morning and last available animated satellite pictures suggest that a poorly defined low level circulation exists near 5S/84E at 0900Z. The low level circulation center is almost stationary. Minimal sea level pressure is estimated at 1004hPa. Winds near the center are of the order of 20-25kt, reaching 30kt in the northwestern sector. Lower layers environmental conditions are rather favorable, but east-northeasterly vertical wind shear is expected to keep on being moderate to strong in this area within the next 2-3 days. This low may track slowly southwestward for the next 24 hours, and accelerate west southwestward beyond. Available numerical weather prediction models forecast a slow deepening of this low for the next 3 days.

A broad ill-defined low level clockwise circulation is located at 0900Z near 14.2S 58.4E, moving southwestward at about 10 knots. Associated convective activity is fluctuating. Mean level sea pressure is estimated at 1007 hPa and winds are estimated at 10-15 knots near the center, reaching 20-25 knots far away from the center in the southeastern quadrant due to gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement and do not deepen the low within the next days. Oceanic heat content is marginal and a rather strong north wind shear should remain on the expected west southwestward track.

For the next 48 hours, development of a tropical depression is not expected. From Monday, potential becomes poor for the first paragraph disturbance.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
17:30 PM IST November 10 2012
======================================

A low pressure area may form over central parts of south Bay of Bengal around November 14th.

RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET November 11 2012
===================================

Over the northeastern basin: the low level circulation center, detected yesterday, has lost in both definition and organization since last night. After a rather symetric presentation on last night ASCAT pass, OSCAT data of this morning, TRMM pass of 0556Z and classical satellite imagery, show that the low level circulation center merged within an east-west shear line located along 07S. Convective activity is locally strong between 06S 09S and 80E 83E but remains highly easterly sheared and without any organization. Environmental conditions appear marginal for development at present time (indirect low level inflow, 30-40 knots easterly shear). According to available numerical guidance, conditions could become gradually more conducive Tuesday with a more direct low level inflow equatorwards and some easing of the shear associated with better divergence aloft. All guidance deepen a low within the next few days and move it southwestwards and then west southwestwards. It is worth to note that some models show a significantly weaker system than suggested a few days ago.

250 km to the north of Tromelin: The broad low level clockwise circulation monitored since a few days, is located at 1100Z near 13.6S 54.5E, moving west northwestwards at about 8 knots. Associated residual convective activity is removed at more than 500 km to the southeast of the center. mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1008 hPa and winds are estimated at 10-15 knots near the center, reaching 20-25 knots far away from the center in the southern semi-circle due to gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures. Within unfavorable conditions, this system should dissipate within the next 24-36 hours near the northeastern coasts of Madagascar.

For the next 24 hours, development of a tropical depression is not expected. Tuesday, potential becomes poor to fair for the disturbance in paragraph one.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
17:30 PM IST November 11 2012
======================================

a low pressure area may develop over central parts of south Bay of Bengal around November 13th.

RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET November 12 2012
===================================

Over the northeastern basin: The low level circulation center, monitored since a few days keeps on losing in both definition and organization and presents an east/west shear line pattern extending along 9S from 78E to 84E. Recent multispectral imagery does not allow anymore to depict a single center. Convective activity becomes scattered and fluctuating and remains highly easterly sheared and without any organization. Environmental conditions appear marginal for development at present time (indirect low level inflow, 20-30 knots easterly shear). According to available numerical guidance, conditions could become gradually more conducive Wednesday late or Thursday early with a more direct low level inflow equatorwards and some easing of the shear associated with better divergence aloft. All guidance deepen a low within the next few days and move it south-westwards and then west southwestwards. It is worth to note that some models show a significantly weaker system than suggested a few days ago.

180 km to the north-west of Tromelin: The broad low level clockwise circulation also monitored since a few days, is located at 1100Z near 12.4S 51.6E, moving west northwestwards at about 8knots. Clockwise circulation is not closed in its northern part (thanks to 0615Z ASCAT swath). mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1011 has with winds near the center estimated at about 15-20 knots (thanks again to 0615Z ASCAT swath). Deep convective activity exists only in the south-eastern quadrant within north-south convergence area existing between 51E and 55E from 220 km to 350 km from the supposed main center. Under squalls winds should reach near gale force winds 30knots, locally gale force winds 35 knots. At 0300Z and 0400Z, Tromelin Island 10NM. Winds is about 50 km/h with gusts until 75-85 km/h.

Within unfavorable conditions, this system should dissipate within the next 24-36 hours near the
northeastern coasts of Madagascar.

For the next 24 hours, development of a tropical depression is not expected. Tuesday, potential
becomes poor and becomes fair on Wednesday for the first paragraph disturbance.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
17:30 PM IST November 12 2012
====================================

a low pressure area would develop over central parts of south Bay of Bengal during next 48 hours and may become more marked subsequently.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
21:00 PM JST November 12 2012
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 8.0N 117.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST November 13 2012
======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 8.0N 116.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST November 13 2012
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 8.0N 115.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
15:00 PM JST November 13 2012
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 8.0N 113.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
21:00 PM JST November 13 2012
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 8.0N 112.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
17:30 PM IST November 13 2012
==============================

a low pressure area would develop over central parts of south Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours and may become more marked subsequently.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26
3:00 AM JST November 14 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 7.4N 110.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 7.7N 107.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26
6:00 AM JST November 14 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 7.4N 110.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 7.7N 107.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26
9:00 AM JST November 14 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 7.6N 110.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 8.3N 107.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Depression will move west north westward for the next 24 hours

Tropical Depression will be upgraded to tropical storm within 24 hours

System will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be 2.0 after 24 hours

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26
12:00 PM JST November 14 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 7.6N 109.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 8.3N 107.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST November 14 2012
====================================

a low pressure area would develop over central parts of south Bay of Bengal during next 24 hours and may become more marked subsequently.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26
15:00 PM JST November 14 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 8.1N 109.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 9.0N 106.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea

Additional Information
=======================

Tropical Depression will move west northwestward for the next 24 hours

Tropical Depression will be upgraded to tropical storm within 24 hours

System will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be 2.5 after 24 hours