September 1 2012 - October 31 2012

By: HadesGodWyvern , 11:32 PM GMT on August 31, 2012

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Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon 2012 season
=================================================
Information used for this blog are from

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

-----------------
Northwestern Pacific
-----------------
Japan Meteorological Agency: Tokyo
Hong Kong Observatory: China
Typhoon 2000: Philippines
PAGASA: Manila, Philippines

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Northern Indian Ocean
--------------------
India Meteorological Department: New Delphi
Thailand Meteorological Department

------------------------
Northeastern Pacific Ocean
------------------------
National Hurricane Center: Miami, FL

-------------------------
Central Northeastern Pacific
----------------------------
Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Honolulu, Hawaii

---------------------------
Southern Indian Ocean
---------------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta: Indonesia
Mauritius Meteorological Service
Reunion Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

--------------------------
Southern Pacific Ocean
-----------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Fiji Meteorological Services: Nadi
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center: Wellington

=========================================

=======================
Northeast Pacific Ocean
========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Miami National Hurricane Center

National Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

September
EP092012.Ileana - 976 hPa
EP102012.John - 1001 hPa
EP112012.Kristy - 998 hPa
EP122012.Lane - 989 hPa
EP132012.Miriam - 958 hPa
EP142012.Norman - 1000 hPa

October
EP152012.Olivia - 998 hPa
EP162012.Paul - 960 hPa
EP172012.Rosa - 1002 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
=======================
North Central Pacific Ocean
========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Honolulu National Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================



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========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

September
T201216.Sanba/Karen - 900 hPa
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 hPa
T201217.Jelawat/Lawin - 905 hPa
T201218.Ewiniar - 985 hPa
T201219.Maliksi - 985 hPa

October
T201220.Gaemi/Marce - 990 hPa
T201221.Prapiroon/Nina - 940 hPa
T201222.Maria - 990 hPa
T201223.Son-Tinh/Ofel - 945 hPa


-------------------------------------------------
========================
North Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

October
BOB01-2012.NONAME - 1003 hPa
ARB01-2012.Murjan - 1000 hPa
BOB02-2012.Nilam - 992 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
Southwestern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Seychelles Meteorological Services
Mauritius Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

October
01R.Anais - 949 hPa

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794. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
11:25 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
HadesGodWyvern has created a new entry.
793. HadesGodWyvern
6:45 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
20:30 PM IST October 31 2012
=========================================

At 15:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam moved northwestward and now lays centered near 13.0N 79.5E, about 60 km west of Chennai, India. The system is likely to move further northwestward and weaken into a deep depression.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
792. HadesGodWyvern
4:42 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA (EP172012)
8:00 AM PDT October 31 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: "ROSA" Drifting...

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Rosa (1002 hPa) located at 14.5N 117.6W or 665 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 14.7N 118.3W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.6N 118.9W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 14.4N 119.7W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
791. HadesGodWyvern
4:33 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
17:30 PM IST October 31 2012
=========================================

Cyclonic Storm NILAM Crossed North Tamilnadu Coast


At 12:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Strom Nilam moved north northwestwards and crossed northern Tamil Nadu coast near 12.6N 80.2E, south of Chennai, India between 1030 and 1130 AM UTC. The cyclone now lays near 12.7N 79.8E or about 50 km south southwest of Chennai, India. The system is likely to move northwestward and weaken into a deep depression during the next 6 hours.

According to satellite imagery, associated broken to solid intense to very intense convective clouds are observed north Tamil Nadu, adjoining Rayalseema, adjoining Bay of Bengal between 9.0N to 15.0N west of 82.0E.

The sustained winds near the center along and off northern Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast will continue to be about 35-40 knots. during the next 6 hours and decrease thereafter. Sea conditions is very rough to high along the coast for the next 5 hours before decreasing.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
6 HRS: 13.5N 79.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
12 HRS: 14.5N 78.0E - 25 knots (Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
790. HadesGodWyvern
12:58 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
14:30 PM IST October 31 2012
=========================================

Cyclone Warning For Northern Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining Southern Andhra Pradesh Coasts

Red Message


At 9:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam moved north northwestward during the last 6 hours and now lays centered near 12.0N 80.5E or about 120 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 70 km east of Puducherry, India. Latest radar imagery and coastal observation indicate that Cyclonic Storm Nilam is now beginning to cross Tamil Nadu (India) coast.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
789. HadesGodWyvern
12:48 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA (EP172012)
2:00 AM PDT October 31 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: "ROSA" Parks Itself West Southwest Of Mexico..

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Rosa (1003 hPa) located at 14.5N 117.3W or 655 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 14.7N 118.3W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.7N 118.8W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 14.5N 119.5W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
788. HadesGodWyvern
12:44 PM GMT on October 31, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
11:30 AM IST October 31 2012
=========================================

Cyclone Warning For North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

Red Message


At 6:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam moved north northwestward during the past 6 hours and now lays centered near 11.5N 81.0E or about 180 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 140 km east southeast of Cuddalore, India. The system would move northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast close to Chennai around 12:00 PM UTC, today.

According to satellite imagery, vortex of the cyclone over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka centered near 10.8N 81.0E. The Dvorak intensity of the system is 3.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection over northern Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Comorin, Palk Strait, Tamil Nadu, adjoining Rayalseema, southwest adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 7.5N to 15.5N west of 83.5E.

Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots gusting up to 55 knots. The central pressure of the system is 992 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the center of the cyclone.

Coastal observations from Tamil Nadu and Puducherry indicate maximum sustained wind of about 20-25 knots. The lowest mean surface level pressure of 998 hPa is reported by Puducherry with 24 hours pressure change of 12.2 hPa.

Cyclonic storm Nilam is being captured by DWR Chennai, as per its observation at 6:00 AM UTC, the eye is ill defined and center at 11.5N and 80.9E. Maximum reflectivity near vortex center is 50 dbz. The confident is poor.

An anticyclonic circulation lies over west central Bay of Bengal (northeast of system center). Upper level winds are south-southeasterly over southwest Bay of Bengal becoming east- southeasterly near the coast favoring initial north northwesterly and then northwesterly movement of cyclone. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 17.0N The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity remained same during past six hours and the vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is of the order of 10 knots around system center. 24 hours

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.5N 79.0E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
18 HRS: 14.5N 78.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
24 HRS: 15.5N 77.0E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
787. HadesGodWyvern
6:23 AM GMT on October 31, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
8:30 AM IST October 31 2012
=========================================

Cyclone Warning For North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

Red Message


At 3:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam moved northwestward and now lays centered near 11.0N 81.0E or about 260 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 300 km north of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to strengthen into a severe cyclonic storm and move northwestward while crossing northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Puducherry and Nellore, close to Chennai by afternoon/evening of October 31st.

According to satellite imagery, vortex of Nilam over southwest Bay of Bengal adjoining Sri Lanka centered near 10.5N 81.1E. Dvorak intensity of the system is 3.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection over Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Comorin, Palk Strait, Tamil Nadu, adjoining Rayalseema, southwest adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 7.5N to 15.5N west of 83.5E.

Maximum 3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots gusting up to 55 knots. The central pressure of Nilam is estimated at 994 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the center of the cyclone.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
9 HRS: 12.5N 80.3E - 50 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
15 HRS: 13.5N 79.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
33 HRS: 15.5N 77.5E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
786. HadesGodWyvern
3:21 AM GMT on October 31, 2012
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA (EP172012)
8:00 PM PDT October 30 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: "ROSA" Moving Westward With No Change In Strength..

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Rosa (1003 hPa) located at 14.5N 117.0W or 645 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 14.7N 118.3W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.9N 119.3W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 14.5N 120.5W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
785. HadesGodWyvern
3:13 AM GMT on October 31, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
5:30 AM IST October 31 2012
=========================================

Cyclone Warning For North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

Orange Message


At 0:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam moved northwestward and now lays centered near 10.5N 81.5E or about 320 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 220 km north of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to move north northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore near Chennai around 12:00 PM UTC, October 31st,

According to satellite imagery, The Dvorak intensity of the cyclone is 3.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection lies over Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Comrin, Palk Strait, Tamil Nadu, adjoining Rayalseema, southwestern adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 7.5N to 15.5N west of 83.5E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 45 knots gusting up to 55 knots. The estimated central pressure of Nalim is 994 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclone.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is >80 kj/cm2 around the system center. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. An anticyclonic circulation lies over west central Bay of Bengal (northeast of system center). The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 17.0N. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity remained same during past six hours and the vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is of the order of 10 knots around system center. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows decreasing trend of the order of 5-10 knots over west central Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 12.5N 80.3E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 15.3N 78.3E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
784. HadesGodWyvern
11:46 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
2:30 AM IST October 31 2012
=========================================

Cyclone Warning For North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

Orange Message


At 21:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam remained practically stationary and lays centered near 10.0N 82.0E or 400 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 180 km north northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to move north northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore near Chennai between 12:00 PM UTC, October 31st.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of Nalim is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection lies over Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Palk Strait, Tamil Nadu, adjoining Rayalseema, southwest adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 7.5N to 13.5N west of 84.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots gusting up to 50 knots. The central pressure of Nalim is estimated at around 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclone.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is >80 kj/cm2 around the system center. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. An anticyclonic circulation lies over west central Bay of Bengal (northeast of system center). The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15º n. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity remained same during past six hours and the vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is 5-10 knots around system center. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows decreasing trend of the order of 10 knots over west central Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
9 HRS: 11.5N 80.8E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 13.0N 79.8E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
39 HRS: 15.3N 78.3E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
783. HadesGodWyvern
10:36 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
23:30 PM IST October 30 2012
=========================================

Cyclone Warning For North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

Orange Message


At 18:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam moved northward and lays centered near 10.0N 82.0E or about 400 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 180 km north northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The cyclone is likely to move north northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Predesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore near Chennai around 12:00 PM UTC, October 31st.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of Nilam is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection lies over Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Comorin, Palk Strait, Tamil Nadu, adjoining Rayalseema, southwest adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 7.0N to 11.5N west of 83.0E.

3 minute sustained winds of the cyclone is 40 knots gusting up to 50 knots. The central pressure of the system is 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclone.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is >80 kj/cm2 around the system center. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. An anticyclonic circulation lies over west central Bay of Bengal (northeast of system center). The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0N. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity remained same during past six hours and the vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is 5-10 knots around system center. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows decreasing trend of the order of 10 knots over west central Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 11.5N 80.8E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 13.0N 79.8E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
30 HRS: 13.8N 79.3E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
782. HadesGodWyvern
10:25 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA (EP172012)
2:00 PM PDT October 30 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: "ROSA" Strengthens A LIttle

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Rosa (1003 hPa) located at 14.4N 116.7W or 640 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 14.9N 118.4W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 15.0N 119.7W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 14.5N 120.8W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
781. HadesGodWyvern
8:01 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
20:30 PM IST October 30 2012
=========================================

Cyclone Warning For North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

Orange Message


At 15:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam remained practically stationary and lays centered near 9.5N 82.0E or about 450 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 130 km north northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to move north northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore near Chennai around 12:00 PM October 31st.

According to satellite imagery, Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection lies over Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Comorin, Palk Strait, Tamil Nadu adjoining Rayalseema, southwest adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 7.0N to 11.5N west of 83.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots gusting up to 50 knots. The central pressure of the cyclone is 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclone.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is >80 kj/cm2 around the system center. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. An anticyclonic circulation lies over central Bay of Bengal (northeast of system center). The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0N. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity remained same during past six hours and the vertical wind shear has decreased between 200 and 850 HPA levels and is moderate ( 5-10 knots) around system center. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows decreasing trend of the order of 10 knots over west central Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
9 HRS: 10.7N 81.3E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
33 HRS: 13.8N 79.3E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
780. HadesGodWyvern
3:17 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
17:30 PM IST October 30 2012
=========================================

Cyclone Warning For North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

Orange Message


At 12:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam remained practically stationary and lays near 9.5N 82.0E, or about 450 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 130 km north northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system would likely move north northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast by the evening of October 31st.

According to satellite imagery, The Dvorak intensity of Nilam is 2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection lies over Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Comorin, Palk Strait, Tamil Nadu, adjoining Rayalseema, southwest adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 7.0N to 11.5N west of 83.0E.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots gusting up to 50 knots. The central pressure of Nilam is 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclone.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is >80 kj/cm2 around the system center. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. An anticyclonic circulation lies over central Bay of Bengal (northeast of system center). The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0N The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity remained same during past six hours and the vertical wind shear has decreased between 200 and 850 HPA levels and is moderate ( 5-10 knots) around system center. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows decreasing trend of the order of 10 knots over west central Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 10.7N 81.3E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 13.8N 79.3E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
48 HRS: 15.3N 78.3E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
779. HadesGodWyvern
3:04 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA (EP172012)
8:00 AM PDT October 30 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Storm "ROSA" forms..

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Rosa (1004 hPa) located at 14.5N 116.5W or 630 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 15.1N 118.6W - 45 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 15.4N 120.3W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 15.0N 121.5W - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
778. HadesGodWyvern
2:41 PM GMT on October 30, 2012


Strong Arabian Sea cyclone in the next 72 hours?
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
777. HadesGodWyvern
2:27 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EP172012
2:00 AM PDT October 30 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Forms Over The Eastern North Pacific Ocean -- Far From Land

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 14.4N 116.1W or 620 NM southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 15.1N 117.9W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
776. HadesGodWyvern
12:20 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
14:30 PM IST October 30 2012
=========================================

Cyclone Warning for North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coasts

Orange Message

At 9:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam remained practically stationary near 9.5N 82.0E, about 450 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 130 km North-northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system would move North-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore near Chennai by evening of October 31st.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
775. HadesGodWyvern
12:09 PM GMT on October 30, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
11:30 AM IST October 30 2012
=========================================

Cyclone Warning For Northern Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining Southern Andhra Pradesh Coasts

Orange Message

At 6:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Nilam remained practically stationary and lays centered near 9.0N 82.0E or 500 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 100 km east northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system would move northwestwards and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore near Chennai by evening of October 31st.

According to satellite imagery, vortex over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka centered near 9.0N 82.0E. Dvorak intensity of the system is 2.5. Intense to very intense convective clouds are observed at many places over Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Comorin, Palk Strait, Tamil Nadu, adjoining Rayalseema, southwest adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 5.0N to 15.0N west of 84.5E. Wind shear of the area is between 10-20 knots. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -85C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots gusting up to 45 knots. The central pressure of Nilam is 998 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the system.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 10.0N 81.2E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.8N 80.0E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 16.0N 78.0E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
774. HadesGodWyvern
7:53 AM GMT on October 30, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
CYCLONIC STORM NILAM (BOB02-2012)
8:30 AM IST October 30 2012
=========================================

Cyclone Warning For Northern Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining Southern Andhra Pradesh Coasts

At 3:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and intensified into a cyclonic storm. Cyclonic Storm Nilam lays centered near 9.0N 82.0E, or about 500 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 100 km east northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to move northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by afternoon/evening of October 31st.

According to satellite imagery, vortex over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka centered near 9.0N 82.0E. The Dvorak intensity of Nilam is 2.5 with associated broken intense to very intense convection over Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Comorin, Palk STR, Tamil Nadu, adjoining Rayleseema, southwest adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 5.0N to 14.5N west of 85.0E. The associated convection has remained same with respect to height and organization during the past 6 hours. the lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is -85C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots gusting up to 45 knots. The central pressure of Nilam is 998 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to high around the center of the cyclone.


Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is >80 kj/cm2 around the system center. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. An anticyclonic circulation lies over central Bay of Bengal (northeast sector of cyclone). The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity has increased during past 6 hrs and the vertical wind shear has decreased between 200 and 850 HPA levels and is low (0-5 knots) around system center. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows decreasing trend of the order of 10 knots over west central Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast. Estimated central pressure is 998 hPa and 24 hours pressure fall is observed maximum over Ongole -1.8 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 9.5N 81.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 12.0N 80.4E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 15.0N 79.0E - 25 knots (Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
773. HadesGodWyvern
6:12 AM GMT on October 30, 2012
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 PM PDT October 29 2012
===============================

Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an area of low pressure located about 700 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. However...upper-level winds are becoming less conducive for development during the next 48 hours as it moves west northwestward at around 10 MPH.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================
There is a MODERATE chance of this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
772. HadesGodWyvern
4:42 AM GMT on October 30, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2012
5:30 AM IST October 30 2012
==========================================

Cyclone Alert For North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

At 0:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and now lays near 9.0N 82.0E, or about 500 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 100 km east northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by afternoon/evening of October 31st.

According to satellite imagery, the vortex over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka centered near 8.7N 82.0E. Dvorak intensity of the system is 2.0. Associated broken to intense to very intense convection over Sri Lanka, Gulf of Mannar, Comorin, Palk Strait, Tamil Nadu, and adjoining Rayalasheema southwest adjoining west central Bay of Bengal between 5.0N 14.5N west of 86.5E. Low/Medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 5.0N and 13.5N and west of 87.0E. Sri Lanka, coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. The associated convection has remained the same with respect to height and organization during the past 6 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -85C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots gusting up to 40 knots. The central pressure of the deep depression is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the center of the system.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity has increased during past 06 hrs and the vertical wind shear has decreased between 200 and 850 HPA levels and is moderate (10-20 knots) around system center. 24 hours wind shear tendency shows decreasing trend of the order of 10 knots over west central Bay of Bengal off Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast. Estimated central pressure is 999 hPa and 24 hours pressure fall is observed maximum over Chennai -1.9 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 9.5N 81.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 11.5N 80.4E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.5N 79.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
771. HadesGodWyvern
12:33 AM GMT on October 30, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2012
23:30 PM IST October 29 2012
==========================================

Cyclone Alert For Northern Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining Southern Andhra Pradesh Coasts

At 18:00 PM UTC, The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and now lays centered near 9.0N 82.0E, or about 500 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 100 km east northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move westward for a couple hours and come very close to Sri Lanka coast. The system will then move northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by the afternoon of October 31st.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 9.5N 81.3E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 11.5N 80.0E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.5N 78.7E - 25 knots (Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
770. HadesGodWyvern
3:25 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
17:30 PM IST October 29 2012
================================

A low pressure area would develop over southeast Arabian Sea during next 24 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
769. HadesGodWyvern
3:07 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2012
17:30 PM IST October 29 2012
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and now lays near 9.0N 82.5E, or about 500 km south southeast of Chennai, India and 130 km east northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and moves westward for some more time while coming closer to Sri Lanka coast. The system should then move northwestward and cross northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining Andhra Pradesh coast between Negapattinam and Nellore by the evening of October 31st.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is 2.0. Low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection is seen over Bay of Bengal between 5.0N to 13.5N and west of 87.0E, Sri Lanka, coastal Tamil Nadu, and Puducherry. The associated convection has remained the same with respect to height and organization during the past 6 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -85C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots gusting up to 40 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the center of the system.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less towards the north of the system. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity has slightly increased during past 6 hrs however the vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels has increased and is moderate to high (15-30 knots) around system center.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 9.0N 81.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 11.0N 80.5E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.5N 79.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
768. HadesGodWyvern
2:33 PM GMT on October 29, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2012
11:30 AM IST October 29 2012
==========================================

Cyclone Alert for North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry And Adjoining South Andhra Pradesh Coasts

At 6:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west southwestwards, and lays centered near 9.0N 83.0E, or about 550 km south-southeast of Chennai, India and 200 km east-northeast of Trincomalee Sri Lanka. the system would intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move west southwestwards for some more time and then move northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by 31stst October.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is t 2.0. Low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 4.0N and 13.5N and west of 88.0E and Sri Lanka. The associated convection has remained same with respect to height and organization during past 06 hrs. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -85C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots gusting up to 40 knots. The central pressure of the sea is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the center of the system.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 50 - 80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less towards the north of the system. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity has remained same during past 6 hrs. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (10-20 knots) around system center. However, it increases towards north, middle and upper tropospheric steering winds suggest west southwestward movement initially and thereafter northwestward movement.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 8.5N 82.3E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 10.5N 81.2E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 13.5N 79.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
767. HadesGodWyvern
6:51 AM GMT on October 29, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #59
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER SON-TINH (T1223)
15:00 PM JST October 29 2012
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Son-Tinh (1006 hPa) located at 22.0N 107.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast slowly.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the Japan Meteorological Agency
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
766. HadesGodWyvern
6:48 AM GMT on October 29, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2012
8:30 AM IST October 29 2012
==========================================

The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and now lays centered near 9.5N 83.5E or about 530 km southeast of Chennai, India and 270 km northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system would intensify into a cyclonic storm and move westward, crossing northern Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by October 31st.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
765. HadesGodWyvern
4:44 AM GMT on October 29, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB02-2012
5:30 AM IST October 29 2012
==========================================

Cyclone Alert for North Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coasts

At 0:00 AM UTC, The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and intensified into a deep depression. The deep depression now lays near 9.5N 84.0E or about 550 km southeast of Chennai, India and 300 km east northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move westward for some more time then move northwestward. The deep depression is forecast to cross Tamil Nadu and adjoining southern Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by the evening/night of October 31st.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. Low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 4.0N and 13.5N and west of 88.0E and Sri Lanka. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during past 12 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -85C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots gusting up to 40 knots. The central pressure of the deep depression is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the center of the system.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less towards the north of the system. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N. The low level convergence, upper level divergence and relative vorticity have increased during past 12 hrs. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (10-20 knots) around system center. However, it increases towards north.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 9.5N 83.2E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
36 HRS: 10.0N 82.0E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
60 HRS: 12.3N 80.5E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
764. HadesGodWyvern
3:55 AM GMT on October 29, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #58
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
12:00 PM JST October 29 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Vietnam

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (1000 hPa) located at 21.5N 107.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 21.5N 108.8E - Tropical Depression In Gulf of Tonkin
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
763. HadesGodWyvern
1:26 AM GMT on October 29, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #57
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
9:00 AM JST October 29 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Vietnam

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (998 hPa) located at 21.3N 107.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 21.6N 108.4E - Tropical Depression Overland southern China
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
762. HadesGodWyvern
10:51 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION BOB02-2012
23:30 PM IST October 28 2012
==========================================

Pre-Cyclone Watch for North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts

At 18:00 PM UTC, the depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and now lays near 9.5N 84.5E or 600 km southeast of Chennai, India and 350 km east northeast of trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression during the next 24 hours and may subsequently become a cyclonic storm as it moves westward towards northern Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu coasts.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
761. HadesGodWyvern
9:49 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #56
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
6:00 AM JST October 29 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Vietnam

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (992 hPa) located at 20.9N 106.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 21.8N 108.3E - Tropical Depression Overland southern China
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
760. HadesGodWyvern
6:55 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #55
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
3:00 AM JST October 29 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Overland Vietnam

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (985 hPa) located at 20.7N 106.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
================
170 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 22.0N 108.1E - Tropical Depression Overland southern China
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
759. HadesGodWyvern
6:31 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #54
TYPHOON SON-TINH (T1223)
0:00 AM JST October 29 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Gulf Of Tonkin

At 15:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Son-Tinh (975 hPa) located at 20.4N 106.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 21.8N 107.7E - Tropical Depression Overland southern China
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
758. HadesGodWyvern
6:27 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION BOB02-2012
17:30 PM IST October 28 2012
==========================================

Pre-Cyclone Watch for North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts

At 12:00 PM UTC, The depression over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and now lays near 9.5N 85.0E or about 650 km southeast of Chennai, India and 400 km east northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system is likely to intensify into a deep depression during the next 24 hours and may subsequently develop into a cyclonic storm as the system moves westward towards northern Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu (India) coast.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. Low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 6.0N and 13.0N west of 88.0E and Sri Lanka. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during the past 12 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -85C.

3 minute sustained wind near the center is 25 knots gusting up to 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is about 1003 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the depression.

The buoy observation around the system shows 20-25 knot winds in the northern sector and about 15 knots in the southern sector.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less towards the north of the system. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and nwp model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N. The low level convergence and relative vorticity have increased during past 24 hrs as well as upper level divergence. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (10-20 knots) around system centre. However, it increases towards north Tamil Nadu and adjoining sea areas.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
757. HadesGodWyvern
1:57 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #53
TYPHOON SON-TINH (T1223)
21:00 PM JST October 28 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Gulf Of Tonkin

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Son-Tinh (970 hPa) located at 19.9N 106.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 21.6N 107.3E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
756. HadesGodWyvern
1:54 PM GMT on October 28, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION BOB02-2012
11:30 AM IST October 28 2012
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, latest satellite imagery and buoy observations indicate that a depression has formed over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal. Depression BOB02-2012 lays near 9.5N 86.0E, or 730 km southeast of Chennai, India 550 km east northeast of Trincomalee, Sri Lanka. The system would intensify into a deep depression and move initially westward towards Tamil Nadu coast.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T1.5. low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 7.0N and 13.0N and 85.0E to 89.0E. Broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection lies over the rest southeast Bay of Bengal between 5.0N to 7.0N and 85.0E to 90.0E. The associated convection has increased gradually with respect to height and organization during past 12 HRS. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -70C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots gusting up to 35 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1004 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center of the depression.

The buoy observation around the center of the depression show 20-25 knot wind in the northern sector and about 15 knots in the southern sector. At 6:00 AM UTC, buoy position near 8.1N 85.5E, reported wind of 18 knots and a mean surface level pressure of 1005 hPa. Buoy located near 11.0N 86.5E reported a mean surface level pressure of 1007.5 hPa with winds of 23 knots. Earlier scatterometry data indicated 25-30 knots wind in the northern sector of the system.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 29-30C. Over south Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm square around the system center. It is less towards the north of the system. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 2 during next 3 days. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 13.0N and hence provides required poleward outflow for intensification of the system. The low level convergence and relative vorticity have increased during past 24 hrs as well as upper level divergence. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (10-20 knots) around system center. However, it increases towards north Tamil Nadu and adjoining sea areas
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
755. HadesGodWyvern
7:35 AM GMT on October 28, 2012
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 PM October 28 27 2012
=====================================

Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with an area of low pressure located about 600 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Although upper-level winds are only marginal conducive...slow development of this low is possible as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 MPH.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================
There is a MODERATE chance of this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
754. HadesGodWyvern
7:04 AM GMT on October 28, 2012
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
753. HadesGodWyvern
6:55 AM GMT on October 28, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #51
TYPHOON SON-TINH (T1223)
15:00 PM JST October 28 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Gulf Of Tonkin

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Son-Tinh (970 hPa) located at 19.2N 107.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 21.0N 106.0E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
752. HadesGodWyvern
5:16 AM GMT on October 28, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST October 28 2012
=======================================

The low pressure area over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighborhood now lies as a well marked low pressure area over central parts of south Bay of Bengal and neighborhood. The system may concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours.

A low pressure area may develop over southeast Arabian Sea around 30th October.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
751. HadesGodWyvern
3:45 AM GMT on October 28, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #50
TYPHOON SON-TINH (T1223)
12:00 PM JST October 28 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Gulf Of Tonkin

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Son-Tinh (965 hPa) located at 18.8N 107.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 20.7N 105.9E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
750. HadesGodWyvern
1:03 AM GMT on October 28, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #49
TYPHOON SON-TINH (T1223)
9:00 AM JST October 28 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Gulf Of Tonkin

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Son-Tinh (965 hPa) located at 18.3N 107.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 20.6N 106.0E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
749. HadesGodWyvern
12:22 AM GMT on October 28, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #48
TYPHOON SON-TINH (T1223)
6:00 AM JST October 28 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Gulf Of Tonkin

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Son-Tinh (950 hPa) located at 18.3N 107.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 20.4N 105.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
45 HRS: 21.1N 105.9E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
748. HadesGodWyvern
8:13 PM GMT on October 27, 2012
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 AM PDT October 27 2012
===================================

Showers and thunderstorms have persisted today in association with a weak area of low pressure located about 650 miles south southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Slow development of this system may occur in the next couple of days as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 MPH.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================

There is a MODERATE chance of this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
747. HadesGodWyvern
7:14 PM GMT on October 27, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
TYPHOON SON-TINH (T1223)
3:00 AM JST October 28 2012
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SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Gulf Of Tonkin

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Son-Tinh (950 hPa) located at 18.1N 107.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 20.1N 106.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
48 HRS: 21.1N 105.9E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
746. HadesGodWyvern
1:47 PM GMT on October 27, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
TYPHOON SON-TINH (T1223)
21:00 PM JST October 27 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Gulf Of Tonkin

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Son-Tinh (945 hPa) located at 17.5N 108.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 19.3N 105.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
48 HRS: 20.4N 105.3E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
745. HadesGodWyvern
6:57 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
TYPHOON SON-TINH (T1223)
15:00 PM JST October 27 2012
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SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Son-Tinh (965 hPa) located at 17.0N 109.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 19.0N 106.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Gulf of Tonkin
48 HRS: 20.3N 105.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 21.2N 104.7E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
744. HadesGodWyvern
6:54 AM GMT on October 27, 2012
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST October 27 2012
==================================

A Low Pressure Area has formed near 12.0N 91.0E over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighborhood. The associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends up to 3.1 km about mean sea level. The system would likely become more well marked during the next 24 hours.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235

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