September 1 2012 - October 31 2012

By: HadesGodWyvern , 11:32 PM GMT on August 31, 2012

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Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon 2012 season
=================================================
Information used for this blog are from

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

-----------------
Northwestern Pacific
-----------------
Japan Meteorological Agency: Tokyo
Hong Kong Observatory: China
Typhoon 2000: Philippines
PAGASA: Manila, Philippines

------------------
Northern Indian Ocean
--------------------
India Meteorological Department: New Delphi
Thailand Meteorological Department

------------------------
Northeastern Pacific Ocean
------------------------
National Hurricane Center: Miami, FL

-------------------------
Central Northeastern Pacific
----------------------------
Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Honolulu, Hawaii

---------------------------
Southern Indian Ocean
---------------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta: Indonesia
Mauritius Meteorological Service
Reunion Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

--------------------------
Southern Pacific Ocean
-----------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Fiji Meteorological Services: Nadi
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center: Wellington

=========================================

=======================
Northeast Pacific Ocean
========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Miami National Hurricane Center

National Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

September
EP092012.Ileana - 976 hPa
EP102012.John - 1001 hPa
EP112012.Kristy - 998 hPa
EP122012.Lane - 989 hPa
EP132012.Miriam - 958 hPa
EP142012.Norman - 1000 hPa

October
EP152012.Olivia - 998 hPa
EP162012.Paul - 960 hPa
EP172012.Rosa - 1002 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
=======================
North Central Pacific Ocean
========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Honolulu National Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================



-------------------------------------------------
========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

September
T201216.Sanba/Karen - 900 hPa
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 hPa
T201217.Jelawat/Lawin - 905 hPa
T201218.Ewiniar - 985 hPa
T201219.Maliksi - 985 hPa

October
T201220.Gaemi/Marce - 990 hPa
T201221.Prapiroon/Nina - 940 hPa
T201222.Maria - 990 hPa
T201223.Son-Tinh/Ofel - 945 hPa


-------------------------------------------------
========================
North Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

October
BOB01-2012.NONAME - 1003 hPa
ARB01-2012.Murjan - 1000 hPa
BOB02-2012.Nilam - 992 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
Southwestern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Seychelles Meteorological Services
Mauritius Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

October
01R.Anais - 949 hPa

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National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
2:00 PM PDT October 13 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Storm Paul Forms Well South Southwest Of Baja California..

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Paul (1005 hPa) located at 14.0N 113.6W or 575 NM south southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 14.9N 115.3W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 18.2N 115.5W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
72 HRS: 23.0N 114.4W - 60 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
CYCLONE TROPICAL ANAIS (01-20122013)
22:30 PM RET October 13 2012
==========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Anais (977 hPa) located at 10.5S 67.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 with gusts of 90. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/6HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
40 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
160 NM radius from the center, extending up to 200 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 11.9S 65.6E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 13.2S 62.9E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 14.5S 59.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

System has evolved in an eye pattern since 1530 AM UTC. Therefore, the cyclone intensification rate is breaking Dvorak constraints. Last satellite fix suggest that system has slowed down and has tracked southwestward during the past 6 hours.

Environmental conditions are favorable with weak northeasterly upper level wind shear (1200 PM UTC CIMSS data, 020/7kt), and good upper level divergence southward. Currently, heat ocean content is favorable (Sea surface temperature is around 27C).

Until after 36 hours, lower and upper environmental conditions should remain favourable. On and after 36 hours (Monday), system should encounter cooler sea surface temperatures (south of 12S) and is expected to weaken. At the end of the forecast range (on and after Wednesday), upper level wind shear is expected to increase ahead of an upper tropospheric trough and system should keep on weakening rapidly. Available numerical weather prediction models are in rather good agreement with a regular track west southwestward until J+5. AVNO suggests that the system should recurve southeast ward after J+4.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #71
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
3:00 AM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 21.5N 130.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.2N 130.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 22.7N 130.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 23.7N 128.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 AM PDT October 13 2012
====================================

Satellite images indicate that a tropical depression or tropical storm is forming about 550 miles south southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula (Mexico). Advisories will likely be initiated on this system later today
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #12
TYPHOON NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 PM PhST October 13 2012
========================================

Typhoon "NINA" has maintained its strength as it continues to moves away from the country

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Nina [967 hPa] located at 21.5°N 130.0°E or 750 km east of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast slowly.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

Typhoon "NINA" is still far to directly affect any part of the country.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern and western Seaboards of northern Luzon and the eastern Seaboard of Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by Typhoon "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:00 AM PDT October 13 2012
==============================

Satellite data indicate that the low pressure area located about 550 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico is becoming better defined. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for a tropical depression to form during the next day or so as the low moves westward at 10 to 15 MPH.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================================

There is a HIGH chance of this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ANAIS (01-20122013)
16:30 PM RET October 13 2012
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Anais (990 hPa) located at 10.1S 68.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 with gusts of 65. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/12HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 90 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 11.5S 65.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 12.6S 63.0E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 13.7S 59.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

Anais shows a curved band pattern wrapping on 0.8 wrap around the center. On infrared imagery, convection seems fluctuating near the center, but 0805 AM UTC TRMM shows an irregular closed eye on 85 GHZ and 37 GHZ. So current intensity is estimated at 45 kt. Anais has a little accelerated in keeping a west southwestward track on the northern edge of the subtropical low-mid level high pressures.

Environmental conditions are favorable with good low level inflow and a east northeasterly wind shear that is still decreasing (06:00 AM UTC CIMSS data, 020/7kt), system being located beneath the western extremity of an upper level ridge. Currently, heat ocean content is favourable (sea surface temperature is around 27C).

Within the next days, Anais is expected to keep on tracking regularly west southwestward under the steering influence of the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressures. Upper level environmental conditions should few evolve. System is expected to stay beneath the western edge of the ridge. A significant uncertainty remains for maximum intensity expected. ECMWF and ARPEGE clearly deepen the system considering that system stays on western extremity of the ridge with a weak wind shear and a very good poleward outflow. However, heat ocean content is limited during that time of the season. RSMC intensity forecast is enhanced in regard of the previous forecast.

On and after 48-60 hours, system is expected to encounter cooler sea surface temperatures and undergoing strengthening upper level wind shear. So, it should fairly quickly weaken.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #69
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
21:00 PM JST October 13 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 21.4N 129.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 21.9N 130.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 22.6N 130.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 22.6N 130.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #68
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
18:00 PM JST October 13 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 21.3N 129.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 21.9N 130.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
45 HRS: 22.5N 130.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
69 HRS: 23.3N 130.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 PM PDT October 12 2012
==============================

A large area of disturbed weather associated with a broad low pressure system is centered about 450 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Upper-level winds are forecast to become conducive for development during the next couple of days. As it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 MPH.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================================

There is a MODERATE chance of this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ANAIS (01-20122013)
10:30 AM RET October 13 2012
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Anais (993 hPa) located at 9.5S 69.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 with gusts of 60. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/6HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant due to gradient effect

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 10.9S 65.6E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 12.1S 63.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 13.0S 60.0E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

After a break yesterday evening, system has intensified and has been named Anais by Meteorological Service of Mauritius. 0455 AM UTC ASCAT pass seems to confirm that gale force winds extend up to 50 NM. 0326 AM UTC F18 microwave imagery shows a consolidating configuration. Anais continues to move west southwestward on the northern edge of the subtropical low-mid level high pressures.

Environmental conditions are fairly favorable with good low level inflow and weak east northeasterly wind shear (cf midnight CIMSS data, 030/8kt), system being located beneath the western extremity of an upper level ridge. Currently, heat ocean content is favorable (Sea surface temperature in the order of 27C).

Within the next days, Anais is expected to keep on tracking regularly west southwestward under the steering influence of the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressures. Upper level environmental conditions should few evolve. System is expected to stay beneath the western edge of the ridge. Monday seems to be the most favorable day for intensification, but uncertainty is high enough for maximum intensity expected. Last ECMWF run (0000 AM UTC) deepens the system more. However, rsmc intensity forecast is maintained in regard of the previous forecast.

On and after after 60, system is expected to encounter cooler sst and undergoing strengthening upper level wind shear. So, it should fairly quickly weaken.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #67
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
15:00 PM JST October 13 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 21.1N 129.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 21.7N 130.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 22.5N 130.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 23.3N 130.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #66
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
12:00 PM JST October 13 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 21.0N 129.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 21.6N 130.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
45 HRS: 22.2N 130.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
69 HRS: 23.0N 130.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
TYPHOON NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 AM PhST October 13 2012
========================================

Typhoon "NINA" has maintained its strength as it continues to move in a northeast direction

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Nina [967 hPa] located at 21.0°N 129.9°E or 735 km east of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast slowly.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

Typhoon "NINA" is still far to directly affect any part of the country.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern and western Seaboards of northern Luzon and the eastern Seaboard of Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by Typhoon "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #65
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
9:00 AM JST October 13 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 20.7N 129.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 21.5N 130.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 22.2N 130.7E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 23.0N 130.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 01-20122013
4:30 AM RET October 13 2012
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (998 hPa) located at 8.8S 70.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 with gusts of 45. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/12HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 10.4S 66.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 11.6S 63.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 12.7S 60.8E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

For the latest hours, cloud tops are clearly cooling and convection has re-organized. The system keeps on tracking west southwestward to southwestward, on the northern edge of the subtropical low-mid level high pressures.

Environmental conditions are fairly favorable with good low level inflow and weak to moderate east northeasterly wind shear (cf CIMSS data), system being located beneath the western extremity of an upper level ridge. Currently, heat ocean content is favorable (Sea surface temperature around 27C),

Within the next days, system is expected to keep on tracking regularly west southwestward under the steering influence of the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressures. Upper level environmental conditions should few evolve. System is expected to stay beneath the western edge of the ridge. Monday seems to be the most favorable day for intensification, but uncertainty is high enough for maximum intensity expected.

On and after 72 hours, system is expected to encounter cooler sea surface temperatures and undergoing strengthening upper level wind shear it should fairly quickly weaken.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #64
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
6:00 AM JST October 13 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 20.7N 129.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 21.5N 130.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
45 HRS: 21.8N 130.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
69 HRS: 22.5N 130.3E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 01-20122013
22:30 PM RET October 12 2012
==========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (999 hPa) located at 8.5S 70.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 with gusts of 45. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 10.5S 66.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 11.7S 63.0E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 12.6S 60.6E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Within the last 6 hours, cloud tops have little warmed and system intensification seem marking a pause. The system still tracking west southwestward to southwestward on the northern edge of the subtropical low-mid level high pressures.

Environmental conditions are favorable with good low level inflow and weak upper level wind shear, system being located beneath the western extremity of an upper level ridge. Currently, heat ocean content is favorable (sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Within the next 3 days, system is expected to keep on tracking regularly west southwestward on the steering influence of the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressures. Upper level environmental conditions should improve; system expected to move beneath the ridge axis and an outflow channel is expected to build south of the system during this period. Therefore, the system should intensify.

On and after 72 hours, system is expected to encounter cooler sea surface temperatures and undergo strengthening upper level wind shear, weakening the system.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #63
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
3:00 AM JST October 13 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 20.4N 129.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 21.1N 130.2E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 21.8N 130.4E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 22.5N 130.3E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #10
TYPHOON NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 PM PhST October 12 2012
========================================

Typhoon "NINA" continous to move north notheastward slowly

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Nina [958 hPa] located at 20.5°N 129.4°E or 670 km east of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast slowly.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

Typhoon "NINA" is still far to directly affect any part of the country.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern and western Seaboards of northern Luzon and the eastern Seaboard of Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by Typhoon "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #61
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
21:00 PM JST October 12 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (940 hPa) located at 20.1N 129.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 20.8N 129.9E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 21.2N 130.1E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 21.9N 130.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 01-20122013
16:30 PM RET October 12 2012
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (999 hPa) located at 7.9S 71.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 with gusts of 45. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/6HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 09.2S 68.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 10.7S 64.5E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 11.9S 61.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Within the last 6 hours, the convection has slightly organized in a curved band. System is tracking west southwestward to southwestward on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressure.

Environmental condition are favorable, with good low level inflow, upper level wind shear is weak, system being located beneath the western extremity of an upper level ridge. Current heat ocean content is favorable (sea surface temperature is around 27C).

Within the next 3 days, system is expected to keep on tracking regularly west southwestward over the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressure. Upper level environmental conditions should improve: System is expected to move beneath the ridge axis, an outflow channel is expected to build south of the system during this period. System is also expected to intensify until after 72 hours.

On and after 72 hours, system should arrive over cooler sea surface temperatures and begin to weaken. Upper level wind shear is expected to strengthen at the end of the forecast period.

Last available numerical weather prediction models suggest a slowest and more south track than the previous runs. RSMC official track is close to the last available ECMWF run.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #60
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
18:00 PM JST October 12 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (940 hPa) located at 20.0N 129.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 20.4N 129.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
45 HRS: 20.7N 129.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
69 HRS: 21.3N 129.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 PM PDT October 11 2012
=================================

A weak low pressure area located about 450 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While upper-level winds are currently only marginally favorable for development...they are forecast to become more favorable in a day or two as generally westward At 10 to 15 MPH.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================================

There is a MODERATE chance of this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 01-20122013
10:30 AM RET October 12 2012
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1002 hPa) located at 7.5S 71.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 with gusts of 40. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D 1.0/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 8.2S 66.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 9.2S 63.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
72 HRS: 9.9S 60.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)

Additional Information
======================

System located 70 NM west of Diego Garcia has tracked west southward at about 11 knots the past 6 hours. Last animated satellite imagery depicts a blow up of convection persisting close to the center and a good upper level divergence south of the system.

Environmental conditions are good with good trade inflow and improving inflow equatorward. Upper level wind shear is weak, system being located beneath the western part of an upper level ridge and the divergence is favorable southward. Sea surface temperature is currently favorable near 27C,

Within the next 3 days, system is expected to keep on tracking regularly west southwestward over the northwestern edge of the subtropical high pressure. Environmental conditions should remain favorable. System is expected to intensify during this period.

On an after 72 hours, system should keep on tracking west southwestward. Ocean heat content should become unfavorable for further deepening of the system.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #59
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
15:00 PM JST October 12 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (940 hPa) located at 19.9N 128.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 20.3N 129.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 20.7N 129.2E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 21.3N 129.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #58
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
12:00 PM JST October 12 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (940 hPa) located at 19.7N 128.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 20.1N 128.7E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
45 HRS: 20.5N 128.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
69 HRS: 21.0N 128.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #9
TYPHOON NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 AM PhST October 12 2012
========================================

Typhoon "NINA" has maintained its strength as it moves northward slowly

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Nina [958 hPa] located at 19.8°N 128.7°E or 630 km east of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 650 km diameter of the typhoon.

Typhoon "NINA" is still far to directly affect any part of the country.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern and western Seaboards of northern Luzon and the eastern Seaboard of Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by Typhoon "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #57
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
9:00 AM JST October 12 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (940 hPa) located at 19.6N 128.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 20.0N 128.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 20.5N 128.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 21.0N 128.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #56
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
6:00 AM JST October 12 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (940 hPa) located at 19.5N 128.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 20.0N 128.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
45 HRS: 20.7N 128.5E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
69 HRS: 21.6N 128.7E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #55
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
3:00 AM JST October 12 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (940 hPa) located at 19.5N 128.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 20.0N 128.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 20.7N 128.5E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 21.6N 128.7E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
TYPHOON NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 PM PhST October 11 2012
========================================

Typhoon "NINA" has intensified as it moves northwestward slowly

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Nina [958 hPa] located at 19.5N 128.5E or 660 km east of Calayan Island, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

Typhoon "NINA" is still far to directly affect any part of the country.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern and western Seaboards of northern Luzon and the eastern Seaboard of Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by Typhoon "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #53
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
21:00 PM JST October 11 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (940 hPa) located at 19.5N 128.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 20.1N 128.1E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 20.7N 128.5E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 21.6N 128.7E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Reunion Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 PM RET October 11 2012
======================================

Convective activity is moderate to strong, but fluctuating, and concentrated between 65.0E and 85.0E
north of 12.0S. In this area, multispectral satellite imagery suggests a broad clockwise circulation whose the center can be localized very approximately near 6.7S 74.5E at 0900 AM UTC. The central pressure is estimated at 1007 hPa (observation Diego-Garcia at 0900 AM UTC). 0355 AM UTC ASCAT pass shows winds at about 10-15 knots, reaching 20-25 kt in the southern semi-circle.

The low is currently well supplied poleward. Equatorward low level inflow is weaker, but should
improve within the next days. Upper level vertical wind shear is moderate on the western edge of
high pressures located in the east. Within the next 72 hours, available numerical weather prediction models forecast that this low will keep a fast enough movement west southwestward, and should slowly deepen with fairly good environmental conditions. Saturday and especially Sunday, it is expected that vertical wind shear will decrease and so the low should more clearly deepen.

For the next 36 hours, development of a tropical depression is not expected. Beyond, potential becomes fair to good.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:00 AM PDT October 11 2012
===============================

A broad area of low pressure located about 450 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this disturbance over the next few days as it moves slowly westward.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook
==========================

There is a MODERATE chance of this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #52
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
18:00 PM JST October 11 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 19.5N 128.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 20.1N 128.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
45 HRS: 20.9N 128.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
69 HRS: 21.8N 129.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE, FORMER BOB01-2012
11:30 AM IST October 11 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, The depression over Bangladesh and adjoining Tripura moved northeastwards and weakened into a well marked low pressure area over Tripura and adjoining Mizoram and Bangladesh.

The is the last bulletin for this system
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #51
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
15:00 PM JST October 11 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 19.5N 128.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 20.1N 128.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 20.9N 128.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 21.8N 129.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION BOB01-2012
8:30 AM IST October 11 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Depression Overland Bangladesh

At 3:00 AM UTC The depression over northeast Bay of Bengal moved northeastward and crossed Bangladesh coast near Hatia between 0000-0100 AM UTC today. Depression BOB01-2012 now lays centered over Bangladesh and adjoining Tripura near 23.0N 91.5E, or 100 km south of Agartala.

The system is likely to move northeastwards and weaken gradually into a well marked low pressure area during next 24 hrs.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #50
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
12:00 PM JST October 11 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 19.2N 128.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 19.8N 128.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 20.6N 128.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
69 HRS: 21.4N 129.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
TYPHOON NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 AM PhST October 11 2012
========================================

SUBJECT: Typhoon "NINA" continues to move northwestward slowly

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Nina [967 hPa] located at 19.3°N 128.9°E or 790 km east of Calayan Island, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 4 knots.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

Typhoon "NINA" is still far to directly affect any part of the country.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern and western Seaboard of northern Luzon and the eastern Seaboards of Luzon and Visayas due to big waves caused by by Typhoon "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION BOB01-2012
5:30 AM IST October 11 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Depression Close To Bangladesh

At 0:00 AM UTC, The depression over northeast Bay of Bengal moved northward and lays centered near 22.5N 91.0E, close to Hatia (Bangladesh). The system is likely to move northward and cross Bangladesh coast near Hatia within a few hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #49
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
9:00 AM JST October 11 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 19.1N 129.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 19.8N 128.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 20.6N 128.6E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 21.4N 129.1E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 AM PDT October 10 2012
====================================

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a trough of low pressure that extends offshore of the coast of Central America and southern Mexico for several hundred miles. Conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system during the next few days as it moves slowly westward.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================================

There is a MODERATE chance of this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #48
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
6:00 AM JST October 11 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 19.0N 129.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 19.6N 128.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
45 HRS: 20.3N 128.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
69 HRS: 21.2N 128.4E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1A
DEPRESSION BOB01-2012
23:30 PM IST October 10 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over Northeast Bay Of Bengal

At 18:00 PM UTC, The depression over northeast bay of bengal moved northward and lays centered near 21.5N 91.0E, or about 320 km east southeast of Kolkata(India), 100 km southeast of Khepupara
(Bangladesh), and 100 km south of Hatia(Bangladesh). Tthe system is likely to intensify further, move northwards and cross bangladesh coast near Hatia tomorrow morning.

According to satellite imagery, the intensity of the system is T1.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is
About -70C. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal north of lat 20.5N east of 89.5E and south Bangladesh adjoining Myanmar coast.

3 minutes sustained maximum surface wind speed is estimated to be about 25 knots gusting to 35 knots with a central pressure of 1003 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system center. The 24 hrs pressure tendency is negative and about 1 hpa along Bangladesh coast.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
3:00 AM JST October 11 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 18.9N 129.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 19.4N 128.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 20.3N 128.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 21.2N 128.4E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION BOB01-2012
20:30 PM IST October 10 2012
=====================================

SUBJECT: Depression Over Northeast Bay Of Bengal

At 15:00 PM UTC, Latest satellite imagery indicates that a depression has formed over northeast Bay of Bengal and lays centered near 21.0N 91.0E or about 350 km southeast of Kolkata (India), 150 km southeast of Khepurara (Bangladesh), and 150 km south of Hatia (Bangladesh). The system is likely to intensify further, move northward, and cross Bangladesh coast near Hatia tomorrow..

According to satellite imageries, the intensity of the System is T1.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -70C. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal north of 18.5N east 90.5E

3 minutes sustained maximum surface wind speed is estimated to be about 25 knots gusting to 35 knots and central pressure is about 1003 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the system center. The 24 hrs pressure tendency is negative and about 1 hpa along Bangladesh coast.

Considering the environmental features, the Madden
Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 6 with Amplitude of 1. As per statistical and nwp model predictions, It is expected to lie in phase 7 during next 2-3 days with decrease in amplitude. Hence it is not favourable for further intensification. The sea surface temperature is about 29-30C over north bay of bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 50-60 kj/cm2 around the system center it decreases towards bangladesh coast. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 20.0N and hence close to system center. A trough in mid-tropospheric westerlies roughly runs along 80.0E to the north of 18.0N. It is likely to steer the system northeastwards. The low level convergence has increased during past 12 hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hpa levels is low to moderate (10-20 knots) around system center. However, it increases towards bangladesh coast. Considering the nwp model guidance, most of the models do not suggest further intensification of the system.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
TYPHOON NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 PM PhST October 10 2012
========================================

SUBJECT: Typhoon "NINA" has maintained its intensity as it moves northwestward

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Nina (Prapiroon) [967 hPa] located at 19.0°N 130.0°E or 780 km east of Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 4 knots.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

Typhoon "NINA" is still far to directly affect any part of the country.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern and western Seaboard of northern Luzon and the eastern Seaboards of Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by Typhoon "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
21:00 PM JST October 10 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 18.6N 130.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 18.9N 128.4E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
48 HRS: 19.5N 128.1E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea East Of The Philippines
72 HRS: 20.6N 128.1E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45593
494. whitewabit (Mod)
HGW .. Why is NINA/PRAPIROON names being interchanged on the bulletins ??
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