September 1 2012 - October 31 2012

By: HadesGodWyvern , 11:32 PM GMT on August 31, 2012

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Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon 2012 season
=================================================
Information used for this blog are from

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

-----------------
Northwestern Pacific
-----------------
Japan Meteorological Agency: Tokyo
Hong Kong Observatory: China
Typhoon 2000: Philippines
PAGASA: Manila, Philippines

------------------
Northern Indian Ocean
--------------------
India Meteorological Department: New Delphi
Thailand Meteorological Department

------------------------
Northeastern Pacific Ocean
------------------------
National Hurricane Center: Miami, FL

-------------------------
Central Northeastern Pacific
----------------------------
Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Honolulu, Hawaii

---------------------------
Southern Indian Ocean
---------------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta: Indonesia
Mauritius Meteorological Service
Reunion Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

--------------------------
Southern Pacific Ocean
-----------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Fiji Meteorological Services: Nadi
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center: Wellington

=========================================

=======================
Northeast Pacific Ocean
========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Miami National Hurricane Center

National Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

September
EP092012.Ileana - 976 hPa
EP102012.John - 1001 hPa
EP112012.Kristy - 998 hPa
EP122012.Lane - 989 hPa
EP132012.Miriam - 958 hPa
EP142012.Norman - 1000 hPa

October
EP152012.Olivia - 998 hPa
EP162012.Paul - 960 hPa
EP172012.Rosa - 1002 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
=======================
North Central Pacific Ocean
========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Honolulu National Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================



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========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

September
T201216.Sanba/Karen - 900 hPa
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 hPa
T201217.Jelawat/Lawin - 905 hPa
T201218.Ewiniar - 985 hPa
T201219.Maliksi - 985 hPa

October
T201220.Gaemi/Marce - 990 hPa
T201221.Prapiroon/Nina - 940 hPa
T201222.Maria - 990 hPa
T201223.Son-Tinh/Ofel - 945 hPa


-------------------------------------------------
========================
North Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

October
BOB01-2012.NONAME - 1003 hPa
ARB01-2012.Murjan - 1000 hPa
BOB02-2012.Nilam - 992 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
Southwestern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Seychelles Meteorological Services
Mauritius Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

October
01R.Anais - 949 hPa

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Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #89
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
9:00 AM JST October 16 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon south of Minami daito

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (975 hPa) located at 21.8N 130.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
270 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 21.9N 127.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - southwest of Minami daito
48 HRS: 23.1N 127.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - south of Naha
72 HRS: 26.1N 129.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
6:00 AM JST October 16 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Ogasawara Shoto Waters

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maria (990 hPa) located at 25.0N 140.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 29.3N 139.8E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - west northwest of Chichi jima
45 HRS: 34.0N 145.9E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Sea East Of Japan
69 HRS: 36.5N 160.9E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #88
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
6:00 AM JST October 16 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon south of Minami daito

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (970 hPa) located at 22.0N 130.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
270 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.1N 127.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - southwest of Minami daito
45 HRS: 23.2N 127.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south of Naha
69 HRS: 26.1N 129.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
2:00 PM PDT October 15 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: "PAUL" Becomes A Major Hurricane But Expected To Weaken..

At 18:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Paul (960 hPa) located at 18.4N 114.2W or 360 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 23.0N 112.9W - 85 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 2)
48 HRS: 26.6N 113.5W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 29.0N 117.0W - 30 knots (Low Pressure Area)

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================


A HURRICANE WARNING is in effect for the western coast of the Baja California Peninsula from Santa Fe northward to Puerto San Andresito, Mexico

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for the western coast of Baja California Peninsula from north of Puerto San Andresito to Punta Abreojos, Agua Blanca to south of San Fe

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is in effect for the western coast of Baja California Peninsula from north of Punta Abreojos to El Pocito
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
3:00 AM JST October 16 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Ogasawara Shoto Waters

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maria (990 hPa) located at 24.3N 140.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 28.8N 139.2E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - west northwest of Chichi jima
48 HRS: 34.0N 145.9E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Sea East Of Japan
72 HRS: 36.5N 160.9E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #87
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
3:00 AM JST October 16 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon south of Minami daito

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (970 hPa) located at 22.3N 130.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
270 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.2N 128.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - southwest of Minami daito
48 HRS: 23.2N 127.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south of Naha
72 HRS: 26.1N 129.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
CYCLONE TROPICAL ANAIS (01-20122013)
22:30 PM RET October 15 2012
==========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Anais (975 hPa) located at 13.4S 62.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/5.0/W2.0/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
55 NM radius from the center, extending up to 65 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 85 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 130 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 150 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 160 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 15.1S 59.2E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 16.6S 55.9E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)
72 HRS: 17.9S 53.5E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
======================

The satellite presentation of Anais continues to deteriorate under increasing vertical wind shear and poor oceanic heat contain. Pattern is now embedded center. Microwave imagery of this evening and sat imagery show a 15-20 NM southwards tilt between the low level circulation center and the sporadic hot point seen on infrared imagery. Present intensity estimation is on the low side of the available estimation (Advanced Dvorak Technique at 5.1 at 1730z and SAB at 5.5 at 1800z) but appear to reflect the poor organization seen on microwave imagery.

Mx fix also shown that Anais moved westwards this evening with smooth motion now towards the west southwest.

Atmospheric environmental conditions has begun to deteriorate with increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear (cf CIMSS analysis). On Wednesday, upper level northwesterly wind shear is expected to increase sharply ahead of an upper tropospheric trough and system should weaken more rapidly. Winds should remain strong temporarily in the southern semi-circle, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical anticyclone.

Tonight and tomorrow, Anais should be still steered by the mid-level ridge located to its southeast and follow a southwestwards to west southwestwards track. Wednesday, the steering flow should pass to the low level as the system weakens further with still some low level ridge located to the southeast of the system (at the 850-700 MB level). Thursday night, a mid lat trough that should deepen to the south of the Mozambique channel may weaken the subtropical ridge that could allow a southwestwards turn of the remnant low. The high spread shown by the ECMWF ensemble forecast system for thursday and beyond suggest that there is still some significant uncertainty for this scenario.

For Thursday/Friday, the U.S. models still show a recurvature track occurring west of Réunion. European models (including the very last output from ECMWF) are on a more zonal track, in better agreement with the climatological track of early tropical cyclones. The current forecast is closer of this option.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
8:00 AM PDT October 15 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: "PAUL" Strenthens Some More..

At 12:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Paul (979 hPa) located at 17.3N 114.7W or 430 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 21.6N 113.4W - 75 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
48 HRS: 26.0N 114.0W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 28.4N 116.2W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for the western coast of Baja California from Santa Fe northward to Puerto San Andresito, Mexico

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is in effect for north of Puerto San Andresito to El Pocito, Mexico
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
21:00 PM JST October 15 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Ogasawara Shoto Waters

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maria (990 hPa) located at 22.7N 141.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 27.8N 139.1E - 55 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - west of Chichi jima
48 HRS: 32.4N 142.7E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - east southeast of Hachijo jima
72 HRS: 35.8N 157.2E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #85
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
21:00 PM JST October 15 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon south of Minami daito

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (960 hPa) located at 22.4N 131.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
270 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 21.8N 129.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south southwest of Minami daito
48 HRS: 23.0N 127.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south of Naha
72 HRS: 25.3N 129.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
CYCLONE TROPICAL ANAIS (01-20122013)
16:30 PM RET October 15 2012
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Anais (965 hPa) located at 13.4S 63.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.5/W1.5/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
40 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
55 NM radius from the center, extending up to 65 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 95 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 110 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 14.9S 60.5E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.4S 57.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 17.6S 54.6E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION TROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

During the last 6 hours, Anais maintained an eye pattern although a significant deterioration has taken place specially the last hour (eye almost disappeared on ir imagery) ... current intensity is on line with the 08z SATCON estimate at 93 kt (1 min wind).

Atmospheric environmental conditions has begun to deteriorate with increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear (cf CIMSS analysis). The northern eyewall appeared eroded in its northern side on AMSUB imagery of 0901z. Oceanic heat contain is now very limited and continues to gradually weaken the system. On Wednesday, upper level northwesterly wind shear is expected to increase sharply ahead of an upper tropospheric trough and system should weaken more rapidly. Winds should remain strong in the southern semi-circle, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical anticyclone.

Tonight and tomorrow, Anais should be still steered by the mid-level ridge located to its southeast and follow a southwestwards to west southwestwards track. Wednesday, the steering flow should pass to the low level as the system weakens further with still some low level ridge located to the southeast of the system (at the 850-700 MB level). Thursday night, a mid lat trough that should deepen to the south of the Mozambique channel may weaken the subtropical ridge that could allow a southwestwards turn of the remnant low. The high spread shown by the ECNWF ensemble forecast system for Thursday and beyond suggest that there is still some significant uncertainty for this scenario. Compared to yesterday, the available tracks shifted northwards a bit.. and so is the present forecast.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7A
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
5:00 AM PDT October 15 2012
==========================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Paul (986 hPa) located at 16.8N 114.8W or 460 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #16
TYPHOON NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 PM PhST October 15 2012
========================================

Typhoon "NINA" has slightly weakened as it remains over the Philippine Sea

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Nina [976 hPa] located at 22.5°N 130.9°E or 840 km northeast of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern Seaboard of northern Luzon and the eastern Seaboard of northern and central Luzon due to big waves generated by "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
2:00 AM PDT October 15 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: "PAUL" Becomes A Hurricane..

At 6:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Paul (988 hPa) located at 16.2N 114.9W or 490 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 20.2N 113.9W - 75 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
48 HRS: 24.8N 113.8W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 27.5N 116.0W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is in effect for Santa Fe to Puerto San Andresito, Mexico
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE ANAIS (01-20122013)
10:30 AM RET October 15 2012
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Anais (957 hPa) located at 12.9S 64.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 85 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 110 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 180 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 14.5S 61.0E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.1S 57.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 17.7S 55.5E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION TROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

During the last 6 hours, Anais has maintained an eye pattern with again some raw T-numbers at 6.0 around 0200 - 0300 AM UTC. At 06:00 AM UTC, 3 hour mean T-numbers is at 5.4 in line with Advance Dvorak Technique. Consequently, the system is maintained in strength.

Microwave data of last night and this morning suggest the occurrence of a quick eyewall replacement cycle. Accordingly, the radius of maximum winds has double up compared to yesterday evening and the eye diameter seen on infrared imagery is now around 45 NM.

The tropical cyclone are still within favorable atmospheric environmental conditions today in relationship with persistent good upper level divergence (although it appears slightly weaker on water vapor imagery) and weak vertical wind shear. However oceanic heat contain is now very limited and should gradually weaken the system.

On Wednesday, upper level north-westerly wind shear is expected to increase sharply ahead of an upper tropospheric trough and system should weaken more rapidly. Winds should remain strong in the southern semi-circle, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical anticyclone.

Except UKMO numerical weather prediction model that keeps on forecasting a zonal westwards track, most of the other available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement about a southwestwards track within the next 48 hours. Available tracks guidance is close to previous one used in the 0:00 AM UTC forecast cycle, just a little bit to the right. The present forecast has been adjusted accordingly. It is worth to note that the 14/1200z ECMWF ensemble forecast depicts a high spread beyond J+3.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
15:00 PM JST October 15 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Ogasawara Shoto Waters

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maria (990 hPa) located at 21.0N 141.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 26.5N 139.4E - 55 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - west of Chichi jima
48 HRS: 30.2N 140.9E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - south southeast of Hachijo jima
72 HRS: 34.9N 152.7E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #83
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
15:00 PM JST October 15 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon south of Minami daito

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (955 hPa) located at 22.6N 131.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
270 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 21.9N 129.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south southwest of Minami daito
48 HRS: 22.7N 127.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south of Naha
72 HRS: 24.1N 127.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
12:00 PM JST October 15 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Ogasawara Shoto Waters

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maria (990 hPa) located at 20.1N 141.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 25.9N 139.6E - 55 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - southwest of Chichi jima
48 HRS: 28.7N 140.2E - 55 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - northwest of Chichi jima
72 HRS: 32.8N 149.6E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - Sea East of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #82
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
12:00 PM JST October 15 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon south of Minami daito

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (955 hPa) located at 22.7N 131.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
270 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.0N 129.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south southwest of Minami daito
45 HRS: 22.5N 128.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south of Naha
69 HRS: 23.9N 127.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #15
TYPHOON NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 AM PhST October 15 2012
========================================

Typhoon "NINA" has maintained its strength as it remains over the Philippine Sea

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Nina [972 hPa] located at 22.8°N 131.1°E or 880 km northeast of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern and western Seaboard of northern Luzon and the eastern Seaboards of Luzon due to big waves generated by "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
8:00 PM PDT October 14 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: "PAUL" Nearing Hurricane Strength..

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Paul (991 hPa) located at 15.8N 115.3W or 525 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 19.6N 114.7W - 75 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
48 HRS: 24.2N 114.2W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 27.0N 117.0W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)

Interest along the western coast of Baja California Mexico should monitor the progress of this cyclone
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
9:00 AM JST October 15 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon Near The Marianas

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maria (990 hPa) located at 19.3N 141.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 25.2N 139.7E - 55 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - southwest of Chichi jima
48 HRS: 28.7N 140.2E - 55 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - northwest of Chichi jima
72 HRS: 32.8N 149.6E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - Sea East of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #81
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
9:00 AM JST October 15 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon south of Minami daito

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (955 hPa) located at 22.8N 131.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
270 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.1N 130.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south southwest of Minami daito
48 HRS: 22.5N 128.0E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south of Naha
72 HRS: 23.9N 127.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE ANAIS (01-20122013)
4:30 AM RET October 15 2012
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Anais (957 hPa) located at 12.5S 64.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.5/W1.5/6HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
40 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
60 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
90 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 180 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 14.3S 61.8E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.2S 58.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 17.7S 56.2E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

Anais has began to weaken as it shift now over over marginal sea surface temperature and weakening oceanic heat potential. Winds extension has been recalibrated thanks to 1948 PM UTC ASCAT swath.

On this west southwestwards track, tropical cyclone will however undergo favorable atmospheric environmental conditions within the next 24 hours in relationship with persistent good upper level divergence and weak vertical wind shear. System should consequently weaken slowly in a first time then quickly on and after Tuesday.

On Wednesday, upper level northwesterly wind shear is expected to increase sharply ahead of an upper tropospheric trough and system should weaken more rapidly.

Winds should remain strong in the southern semi-circle, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical anticyclone.

Except UKMO numerical weather prediction model that keeps on forecasting a zonal westwards track, most of the other available numerical weather prediction are in good agreement about a southwestwards track within the next 48 hours. IFS, ALADIN and GFS are very close one from each other until 18/00z. Then GFS recurves southwards and track the residual low between Réunion and Mauritius. Ifs stays consistent since several successive runs and forecasts a scenario with a filling low tracking north of the both sister islands.

RSMC Réunion keeps on privileging this scenario.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
6:00 AM JST October 15 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near The Marianas

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Maria (992 hPa) located at 18.9N 142.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 23.4N 140.3E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - Ogasawara waters
48 HRS: 26.7N 139.4E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - Ogasawara waters
72 HRS: 30.0N 141.1E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - Ogasawara waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #80
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
6:00 AM JST October 15 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon south of Minami daito

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (955 hPa) located at 22.8N 131.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
270 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.2N 130.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south of Minami daito
45 HRS: 22.5N 128.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
69 HRS: 23.7N 127.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
2:00 PM PDT October 14 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: "PAUL" Turns Northwestward And Strengthens A Little..

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Paul (999 hPa) located at 15.4N 115.2W or 540 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
70 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 18.4N 115.1W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
48 HRS: 23.2N 114.1W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 26.5N 115.3W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
3:00 AM JST October 15 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near The Marianas

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Maria (992 hPa) located at 18.6N 142.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
150 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 22.7N 140.6E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Ogasawara waters
48 HRS: 26.7N 139.4E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - Ogasawara waters
72 HRS: 30.0N 141.1E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - Ogasawara waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #79
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
3:00 AM JST October 15 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon south of Minami daito

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (955 hPa) located at 22.8N 131.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
270 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.3N 130.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south of Minami daito
48 HRS: 22.5N 128.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 23.7N 127.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE ANAIS (01-20122013)
22:30 PM RET October 14 2012
==========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Anais (949 hPa) located at 11.9S 65.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 with gusts of 140. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/12HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
40 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 65 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the southeeastern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 13.8S 63.1E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 15.8S 60.0E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 17.2S 57.0E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)

Additional Information
======================

Anais intensifies gradually and becomes the historical earlier knew intense tropical cyclone over the southwest Indian Ocean and the first one for October.

On this west southwestwards track, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable within the next 12 to 24 hours in relationship with a good low level inflow on the both sides and good upper level context (efficient upper level divergence and weak vertical wind shear).

Monday , system is expected to begin weakening over marginal sea surface temperature and weakening oceanic heat potential. As atmospheric environment remains however favorable, system should weakening slowly in a first time then quickly on and after Tuesday. Winds should remain strong in the southern semi-circle, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical anticyclone. On Wednesday, upper level northwesterly wind shear is expected to increase sharply ahead of an upper tropospheric trough and system should weaken more rapidly. Several numerical weather prediction models (IFS ,ALADIN, and NOGAPS) are in good agreement and forecast a southwestwards track and a recurving movement on and after Thursday.

0:00 AM UTC ensemble EPS spread is now larger than the previous one with several members that forecast this southwards recurving track at medium range. RSMC Réunion privileges now this scenario.

Some available numerical weather prediction models (GFS, ARGEGE) forecast however a more meridian and southern track and UKMO and GFDN keeps on tracking the system globally westwards.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #14
TYPHOON NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 PM PhST October 14 2012
========================================

Typhoon "NINA" has slightly weakened as it moves northward slowly

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Nina [972 hPa] located at 22.6°N 131.3°E or 880 km northeast of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern Seaboard of Luzon and the eastern Seaboards of central and southern of Luzon due to big waves generated by "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
8:00 AM PDT October 14 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: "PAUL" Starting The Northward Turn...

At 12:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Paul (1001 hPa) located at 14.8N 115.1W or 570 NM south southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 17.6N 115.3W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
48 HRS: 22.1N 114.3W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 26.0N 114.9W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
21:00 PM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near The Marianas

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Maria (1002 hPa) located at 17.9N 143.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 20.2N 141.4E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Ogasawara waters
48 HRS: 22.4N 140.6E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Ogasawara waters
72 HRS: 24.6N 140.2E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Ogasawara waters
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #77
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
21:00 PM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon south of Minami daito

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 22.6N 131.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.6N 131.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - south of Minami daito
48 HRS: 22.6N 128.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 23.8N 127.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE ANAIS (01-20122013)
16:30 PM RET October 14 2012
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Anais (953 hPa) located at 11.4S 65.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 with gusts of 130. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.5/18HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
35 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 65 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 13.3S 63.7E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 15.3S 60.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 17.0S 57.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

Anais intensifies gradually since 0:00 AM UTC and becomes the historical earlier intense tropical cyclone over the southwest Indian Ocean.

On this west southwestwards track, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable within the next 12 to 24 hours in relationship with a good low level inflow on the both sides and good upper level context (efficient upper level divergence and weak vertical wind shear).

Monday , system is expected to begin weakening over marginal sea surface temperature and weakening oceanic heat potential. As atmospheric environment remains however favorable, system should weakening slowly in a first time then quickly on and after Tuesday. Winds should remain strong in the southern semi-circle, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical anticyclone. On Wednesday, upper level northwesterly wind shear is expected to increase sharply ahead of an upper tropospheric trough and system should weaken more rapidly.

13/0000z deterministic numerical weather prediction ifs is in agreement with ALADIN and forecast a more southern track than previously and a southwards recurving movement at the ending term of its forecast track.

Its 0:00 AM UTC ensemble EPS spread is now larger than the previous one with several members that forecast this southwards recurving track at medium range. RSMC Réunion privileges now this scenario.

Some available numerical weather prediction models (GFS, ARGEGE) forecast however a more meridian and southern track as UKMO numerical weather prediction models keeps on tracking globally westwards.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
2:00 AM PDT October 14 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: "PAUL" Slowing Down.. Forecast To Turn Northward By Monday

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Paul (1001 hPa) located at 14.3N 114.5W or 580 NM south southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.6N 115.2W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
48 HRS: 21.1N 114.5W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
72 HRS: 25.7N 114.4W - 50 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24
18:00 PM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near The Marianas

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 17.6N 143.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 19.8N 141.7E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Marianas
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #76
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
18:00 PM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 22.5N 131.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.7N 131.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
45 HRS: 22.4N 128.8E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
69 HRS: 23.6N 126.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24
15:00 PM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near The Marianas

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 17.5N 143.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 19.2N 142.0E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Marianas
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near The Marianas

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 17.4N 144.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #75
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
15:00 PM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 22.4N 130.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.7N 130.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 22.4N 128.8E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 23.6N 126.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
CYCLONE TROPICAL ANAIS (01-20122013)
10:30 AM RET October 14 2012
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Anais (975 hPa) located at 11.1S 66.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 with gusts of 105. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 40 NM radius from the center in the western semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 80 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
110 radius from the center, extending up to 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 260 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 12.7S 64.0E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 14.0S 60.5E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 15.4S 56.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

Anais re-intensifies gradually since 0000 AM UTC. On this west southwestwards track, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable within the next 24 to 36 hours in relationship with a good low level inflow on the both sides and good upper level context (efficient upper level divergence and weak vertical wind shear).

Monday, system is expected to begin weakening over marginal sea surface temperature and weakening oceanic heat potential. As atmospheric environment remains however favorable, system should weakening slowly in a first time then quickly on and after Tuesday. Winds should remain strong in the southern semi-circle, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical anticyclone.

On Wednesday, upper level northwesterly wind shear is expected to increase sharply ahead of an upper tropospheric trough and system should weaken more rapidly. 13/1200 PM UTC, deterministic numerical weather prediction ifs purpose a slight southwards recurving movement at the ending term of its forecast track. Its ensemble EPS members spread is however rather thin around its mean tracking westwards towards northeastern Malagasy coastline. NOGAPS, UKMO and GFDN numerical weather prediction tracker are in good agreement with the ifs scenario.

Current RSMC forecast track is close to this zonal west southwestwards scenario. Some available numerical weather prediction models (GFS, ARPEGE) forecast however a more meridian and southern track.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #74
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
12:00 PM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 22.2N 130.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.7N 131.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
45 HRS: 22.7N 129.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
69 HRS: 23.7N 128.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #13
TYPHOON NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 AM PhST October 14 2012
========================================

Typhoon "NINA" continues to move away slowly from the country

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Nina [967 hPa] located at 22.3°N 130.8°E or 830 km east of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast slowly.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

Typhoon "NINA" is too far to directly affect any part of the country.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern and western Seaboards of northern Luzon and the eastern Seaboard of Luzon due to big waves generated by Typhoon "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. tonight.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
8:00 PM PDT October 13 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: "PAUL" intensifying south southwest of Baja California

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Paul (1001 hPa) located at 14.2N 114.1W or 575 NM south southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 15.8N 115.1W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
48 HRS: 19.9N 114.9W - 75 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
72 HRS: 24.6N 114.2W - 60 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
CYCLONE TROPICAL ANAIS (01-20122013)
4:30 AM RET October 14 2012
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Anais (977 hPa) located at 10.9S 66.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 with gusts of 90. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
====================
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 40 NM radius from the center in the western semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center extending up to 60 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 260 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 12.6S 64.5E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 13.9S 61.4E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 15.2S 58.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

The eye has temporarily disappeared on the last satellite infra-red animated pictures.

Environmental conditions are still favorable with weak northeasterly upper level wind-shear (18:00 PM UTC CIMSS data, 030/10kt), and good upper level divergence southward. Currently, heat ocean content is favorable (Sea surface temperature is around 27C).

System is expected to keep on tracking up to Wednesday west southwestward on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures in the mid-troposphere.

For the next 24 hours, environmental conditions should remain good, in the lower and upper levels. System should hold its outflow channel southward. According to recent evolution of intensity, the intensity forecast for the next 24 hours has been revised downward, but intensity should fluctuate within this forecast period.

On and after Monday, system should encounter cooler sea surface temperatures (south of 12S). Monday and Tuesday, system is expected to weaken rather slowly, and winds should remain strong in the southern semi-circle, due to the gradient efect with the subtropical anticyclone. On Wednesday, upper level northwesterly wind shear is expected to increase sharply ahead of an upper tropospheric trough and system should weaken more rapidly.

At the end of the forecast range, on Thursday, the residual low should recurve southward, at the western extremity of the subtropical anticyclone.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #73
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
9:00 AM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 22.0N 130.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.5N 131.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 22.7N 129.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
72 HRS: 23.7N 128.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #72
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (T1221)
6:00 AM JST October 14 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Prapiroon (950 hPa) located at 21.7N 130.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.3N 130.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
45 HRS: 22.7N 130.2E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Japan
69 HRS: 23.7N 128.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
2:00 PM PDT October 13 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Storm Paul Forms Well South Southwest Of Baja California..

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Paul (1005 hPa) located at 14.0N 113.6W or 575 NM south southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 14.9N 115.3W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 18.2N 115.5W - 65 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 1)
72 HRS: 23.0N 114.4W - 60 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44911

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