September 1 2012 - October 31 2012

By: HadesGodWyvern , 11:32 PM GMT on August 31, 2012

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Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon 2012 season
=================================================
Information used for this blog are from

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

-----------------
Northwestern Pacific
-----------------
Japan Meteorological Agency: Tokyo
Hong Kong Observatory: China
Typhoon 2000: Philippines
PAGASA: Manila, Philippines

------------------
Northern Indian Ocean
--------------------
India Meteorological Department: New Delphi
Thailand Meteorological Department

------------------------
Northeastern Pacific Ocean
------------------------
National Hurricane Center: Miami, FL

-------------------------
Central Northeastern Pacific
----------------------------
Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Honolulu, Hawaii

---------------------------
Southern Indian Ocean
---------------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta: Indonesia
Mauritius Meteorological Service
Reunion Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

--------------------------
Southern Pacific Ocean
-----------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Fiji Meteorological Services: Nadi
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center: Wellington

=========================================

=======================
Northeast Pacific Ocean
========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Miami National Hurricane Center

National Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

September
EP092012.Ileana - 976 hPa
EP102012.John - 1001 hPa
EP112012.Kristy - 998 hPa
EP122012.Lane - 989 hPa
EP132012.Miriam - 958 hPa
EP142012.Norman - 1000 hPa

October
EP152012.Olivia - 998 hPa
EP162012.Paul - 960 hPa
EP172012.Rosa - 1002 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
=======================
North Central Pacific Ocean
========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Honolulu National Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================



-------------------------------------------------
========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

September
T201216.Sanba/Karen - 900 hPa
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 hPa
T201217.Jelawat/Lawin - 905 hPa
T201218.Ewiniar - 985 hPa
T201219.Maliksi - 985 hPa

October
T201220.Gaemi/Marce - 990 hPa
T201221.Prapiroon/Nina - 940 hPa
T201222.Maria - 990 hPa
T201223.Son-Tinh/Ofel - 945 hPa


-------------------------------------------------
========================
North Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

October
BOB01-2012.NONAME - 1003 hPa
ARB01-2012.Murjan - 1000 hPa
BOB02-2012.Nilam - 992 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
Southwestern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Seychelles Meteorological Services
Mauritius Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

October
01R.Anais - 949 hPa

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Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
12:00 PM JST October 18 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maria (996 hPa) located at 31.7N 151.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 20 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 32.0N 157.8E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Sea Far East Of Japan
45 HRS: 32.2N 162.8E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Sea Far East Of Japan
69 HRS: 32.9N 168.0E - Tropical Depression In Sea Far East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #106
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
12:00 PM JST October 18 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (985 hPa) located at 27.7N 132.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 20 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center in southern quadrant
240 NM from the center in northern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 31.5N 142.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - south southeast of Hachijo jima
45 HRS: 33.3N 151.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of Japan
69 HRS: 33.7N 161.2E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
9:00 AM JST October 18 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maria (996 hPa) located at 31.4N 150.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 18 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 31.7N 157.5E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Sea Far East Of Japan
48 HRS: 32.2N 162.8E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Sea Far East Of Japan
72 HRS: 32.9N 168.0E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #105
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
9:00 AM JST October 18 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (985 hPa) located at 27.3N 131.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 18 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 31.4N 140.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - south southeast of Hachijo jima
48 HRS: 33.3N 151.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of Japan
72 HRS: 33.7N 161.2E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER ANAIS (01-20122013)
0:30 AM RET October 18 2012
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Anais (1004 hPa) located at 15.9S 54.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: No Report

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.6S 52.1E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
======================

Anais move now in the strong northwesterly wind shear area and keeps on rapidly weakening.

Deep convective activity exists now only far in the southeastern quadrant. Convective bursts could however temporarily appear near the center within night-time.

Available numerical guidance are in good agreement for the forecast track. Anais should remain under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge located in the southeast and so should follow a west southwestward track.

Environmental conditions are very unfavorable (strong northwesterly wind shear and sea surface temperature too fresh) and Anais should progressively fill in and dissipate Saturday over the eastern Malagasy coastline.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #104
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
6:00 AM JST October 18 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (980 hPa) located at 26.6N 131.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 31.2N 138.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Japan
45 HRS: 33.2N 145.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of Japan
69 HRS: 35.5N 157.1E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER PAUL (EP162012)
2:00 PM PDT October 17 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: "PAUL" Now A Remnant Low

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Paul (1004 hPa) located at 27.7N 115.3W or 15 NM west southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The low is reported as moving northwest at 6 knots.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the National Hurricane Center..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
3:00 AM JST October 18 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maria (996 hPa) located at 30.7N 148.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 32.0N 156.5E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Sea Far East Of Japan
48 HRS: 31.4N 161.5E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #103
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
3:00 AM JST October 18 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (980 hPa) located at 25.9N 130.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 30.3N 136.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 33.2N 145.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of Japan
72 HRS: 35.5N 157.1E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER ANAIS (01-20122013)
22:30 PM RET October 17 2012
==========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Anais (1003 hPa) located at 15.6S 55.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: No Report

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.0S 52.8E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION TROPICALE)
48 HRS: 16.9S 50.2E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
======================

Anais move now in the strong northwesterly wind shear area and is rapidly weaken.

Deep convective activity exists now only far in the southeastern quadrant. Convective bursts could however temporarily appear near the center within night time.

Low level totally exposed central vortex remains however well defined.

Available numerical guidance are in good agreement for the forecast track. Anais should remain under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge located in the southeast and so should follow a west southwestward track.

Environmental conditions are very unfavorable (strong north-westerly wind-shear and sea surface temperatures too fresh) and Anais should progressively fill in and dissipate Friday over the eastern Malagasy coastline.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER PAUL (EP162012)
8:00 AM PDT October 17 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: "PAUL" Weakens Into A Tropical Depression As It Moves Along The Baja California Del Sur

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Paul (1001 hPa) located at 27.0N 114.1W or 70 NM southeast of Punta Eugenia, Mexico has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 29.3N 117.9W. - (Low Pressure Area)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #20 (FINAL)
TROPICAL STORM NINA (PRAPIROON)

11:00 PM PhST October 17 2012
========================================

Tropical Storm "NINA" has accelerated and is now outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility.

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Nina [991 hPa] located at 25.4°N 129.3°E or 800 km northeast of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 48 knots.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate -to heavy) within the 600 km diameter of the tropical storm.

With this development, this is the final bulletin for this weather disturbance.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
21:00 PM JST October 17 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maria (996 hPa) located at 30.1N 145.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 32.3N 154.1E - 40 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Sea Far East Of Japan
48 HRS: 34.3N 160.3E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #101
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
21:00 PM JST October 17 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (980 hPa) located at 24.9N 129.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 28.6N 134.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Japan
48 HRS: 32.3N 142.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Southeast of Kanto
72 HRS: 35.8N 155.7E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #22
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ANAIS (01-20122013)
16:30 PM RET October 17 2012
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Anais (1000 hPa) located at 15.6S 56.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W1.0/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
25 NM radius from the center, extending up to 30 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 15.9S 53.3E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION TROPICALE)
48 HRS: 16.4S 50.3E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
======================

Anais move now in the strong northwesterly wind shear area and is forecast to rapidly weaken.

Deep convective activity exists now only far in the southeastern quadrant. Convective bursts could however temporarily appear near the center within night-time. Low level totally exposed central vortex remains however well defined.

Available numerical guidance are in good agreement for the forecast track. Anais should remain under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge located in the southeast and so should follow a west southwestward track.

Environmental conditions are very unfavorable (strong northwesterly wind shear and sea surface temperatures too fresh) and Anais should lose tropical storm status within the next hours and dissipate Friday in the vicinity of eastern coasts of Madagascar.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
2:00 AM PDT October 17 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: "PAUL" Skirting The Southwestern Coast Of Baja California

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Paul (997 hPa) located at 26.4N 113.3W or 105 NM west northwest of Loreto, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 28.6N 117.0W - (Low Pressure Area)

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect from Santa Fe to El Pocito

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for San Evaristo to Bahia San Juan Bautista

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is in effect from north of El Pocito to Punta Eugenia
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15A
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
11:00 PM PDT October 16 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: "PAUL" Continues To Weakening Rapidly..

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Paul (999 hPa) located at 26.1N 112.9W or 55 NM southeast of Punta Abreojos, Mexico has sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 10 knots.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* SANTA FE TO EL POCITO
* SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
15:00 PM JST October 17 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Ogasawara Shoto Waters

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maria (996 hPa) located at 29.5N 144.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 33.0N 152.7E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Sea East Of Japan
48 HRS: 34.5N 161.0E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #99
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
15:00 PM JST October 17 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (975 hPa) located at 24.2N 128.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 27.1N 132.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - north northeast of Minami daito
48 HRS: 30.8N 138.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 34.0N 149.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ANAIS (01-20122013)
10:30 AM RET October 17 2012
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Anais (998 hPa) located at 15.4S 57.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
35 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.3S 54.2E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)
48 HRS: 16.7S 51.1E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
======================

Deep convective activity exists now only in the southeastern quadrant. Low level central vortex totally exposed remains however well defined.

Anais is going to penetrate in the strong northwesterly wind shear area and is forecast to rapidly weaken.

Available numerical guidance are in good agreement for the forecast track. Anais should remain under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge located in the southeast and so should follow a west southwestward track.

Environmental conditions are very unfavorable (strong northwesterly wind shear and sea surface temperatures too fresh) and Anais should lose tropical storm status within the next hours and dissipate Friday in the vicinity of eastern coasts of Madagascar.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
12:00 PM JST October 17 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Ogasawara Shoto Waters

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maria (996 hPa) located at 29.1N 143.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 33.0N 151.2E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Sea East Of Japan
45 HRS: 36.0N 162.0E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #98
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
12:00 PM JST October 17 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (975 hPa) located at 23.8N 128.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 26.6N 131.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - west of Minami daito
46 HRS: 29.5N 136.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Japan
69 HRS: 33.0N 146.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #19
TROPICAL STORM NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 AM PhST October 17 2012
========================================

Tropical Storm "NINA" has weakened and is now moving in a north northeast direction

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Nina [991 hPa] located at 23.5°N 128.4°E or 620 km northeast of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 4 knots.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 600 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern Seaboard of northern Luzon and the eastern Seaboard of northern and central Luzon due to big waves generated by Tropical Storm "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
8:00 PM PDT October 16 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: "PAUL" Weakening Rapidly..

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Paul (992 hPa) located at 25.6N 112.7W or 75 NM west southwest of Loreto, Mexico has sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 28.0N 115.6W - (Low Pressure Area)

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect from Santa Fe to El Pocito

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect from San Evaristo to Juan Bautista

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is in effect from north of El Pocito to Punta Eugenia
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
9:00 AM JST October 17 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Ogasawara Shoto Waters

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maria (996 hPa) located at 28.5N 143.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 32.7N 150.0E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Sea East Of Japan
48 HRS: 36.0N 162.0E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #97
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
9:00 AM JST October 17 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (975 hPa) located at 23.2N 128.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 25.8N 130.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - west of Minami daito
48 HRS: 29.5N 136.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 33.0N 146.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ANAIS (01-20122013)
4:30 AM RET October 17 2012
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Anais (997 hPa) located at 15.0S 58.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W1.0/12 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 15.9S 54.9E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)
48 HRS: 16.6S 51.7E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
======================

Convection has still decreased and now is totally rejected in the southeastern quadrant of the system. Anais is penetrating in the strong northwesterly wind shear area and is rapidly weakening.

Available numerical guidance are in good agreement for the forecast track. Anais should remain under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge located in the southeast and so should follow a west southwestward track.

Environmental conditions are very unfavorable (strong northwesterly wind shear and sea surface temperature too fresh) and Anais should lose tropical storm status within the next hours and dissipate Friday in the vicinity of eastern coasts of Madagascar.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14A
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
5:00 PM PDT October 16 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: "PAUL" Weakens Into A Tropical Storm Just Off The Western Coast Of Baja Peninsula..

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Paul (986 hPa) located at 25.2N 112.5W or 30 NM north northwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico has sustained winds of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 12 knots.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* SANTA FE TO EL POCITO
* SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #96
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
6:00 AM JST October 17 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (975 hPa) located at 22.9N 128.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 25.2N 129.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - west southwest of Minami daito
45 HRS: 27.8N 132.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Japan
69 HRS: 31.2N 141.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
2:00 PM PDT October 16 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: "PAUL" Slowing Down And Weakening Rapidly..

At 18:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Paul (980 hPa) located at 24.7N 112.4W or 8 NM southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico has sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 28.0N 113.8W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone Overland)
48 HRS: 29.5N 117.5W - (Low Pressure Area)

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A HURRICANE WARNING is in effect for western coast of Baja California from Santa Fe northward to Punta Abreojos

A HURRICANE WARNING is in effect from San Evaristo to Mulege in the eastern coast of Baja California

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for western coast of Baja California north of Punta Abreojos to El Pocito

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING for western coast of Baja California south of Santa Fe to Agua Blanca

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING for eastern coast of Baja California from La Paz to south of San Evaristo

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING for eastern coast of Baja California from north of Mulege to Bahia San Jua Buatista

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is in effect for western coast of Baja California north of El Pocito to Punta Eugenia
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13A
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
11:00 AM PDT October 16 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: "PAUL" Weakening As It Approaches Cabo San Lazaro On The Western Coast of Baja California Peninsula

Hurricane Paul (975 hPa) located at 24.3N 112.2W or 40 NM south of Cabo San Lazaro has sustained winds of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 10 knots.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* EVARISTO TO MULEGE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
3:00 AM JST October 17 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Ogasawara Shoto Waters

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maria (996 hPa) located at 28.3N 142.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 33.1N 147.8E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Sea East Of Japan
48 HRS: 37.4N 161.7E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #95
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
3:00 AM JST October 17 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (975 hPa) located at 22.5N 128.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 24.5N 129.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - west southwest of Minami daito
48 HRS: 27.8N 132.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Japan
72 HRS: 31.2N 141.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ANAIS (01-20122013)
22:30 PM RET October 16 2012
==========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Anais (994 hPa) located at 14.6S 59.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 45 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 70 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 85 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 130 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 15.9S 55.8E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)
48 HRS: 16.4S 52.4E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
======================

For the last 6 hours, convection has decreased and is rejected more and more toward southeast of the llcc (45 NM from the center, DT 2.5 in wind shear pattern). 1800zCIMSS data still suggest a 300/18kt wind shear. Latest microwave pictures confirm this evolution. Consequently, current intensity has been downgraded at 45 kt. Winds extensions have been calibrated with 1806z ASCAT pass that confirms this intensity also.

Available numerical guidance are in good agreement for the forecast track. 1200z ECMWFf run is closer that American models, ARPEGE, and ALADIN. RSMCforecast track is more north that previous forecast. Anais should remain under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge located in the southeast and so should follow a west-southwestward track.

Environmental conditions remains very unfavorable over the forecast period, especially vertical wind shear that will increase more clearly tonight, and anais should lose tropical storm status within the next 24 hours and dissipate after 72 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
8:00 AM PDT October 16 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: "PAUL" Rapidly Moving Towards Baja California..

At 12:00 PM UTC, Hurricane Paul (970 hPa) located at 23.8N 112.2W or 60 NM south of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico has sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 27.0N 112.8W -55 knots (Tropical Cyclone Overland)
48 HRS: 29.5N 116.5W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)
72 HRS: 31.3N 121.4W - (Low Pressure Area)

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A HURRICANE WARNING is in effect for western coast of Baja California from Santa Fe northward to Punta Abreojos

A HURRICANE WARNING is in effect from San Evaristo to Mulege in the eastern coast of Baja California

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for western coast of Baja California north of Punta Abreojos to El Pocito

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING for western coast of Baja California south of Santa Fe to Agua Blanca

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING for eastern coast of Baja California from La Paz to south of San Evaristo

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING for eastern coast of Baja California from north of Mulege to Bahia San Jua Buatista

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is in effect for western coast of Baja California north of El Pocito to Punta Eugenia
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #18
TROPICAL STORM NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 PM PhST October 16 2012
========================================

Tropical Storm "NINA" has maintained its strength as it continues to linger over the Philippine Sea

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Nina [984 hPa] located at 22.2°N 128.8°E or 650 km northeast of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern Seaboard of northern Luzon and the Eastern Seaboard of northern and central Luzon due to big waves generated by Tropical Storm "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
21:00 PM JST October 16 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Ogasawara Shoto Waters

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maria (994 hPa) located at 27.4N 141.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 32.6N 145.4E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - Sea East Of Japan
48 HRS: 37.4N 159.0E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #93
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
21:00 PM JST October 16 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (975 hPa) located at 21.7N 128.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 23.4N 128.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - south of Naha
48 HRS: 25.4N 129.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - west southwest of Minami daito
72 HRS: 29.3N 135.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ANAIS (01-20122013)
16:30 PM RET October 16 2012
==========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Anais (992 hPa) located at 14.2S 60.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/18 HRS

Storm Force Winds
====================
35 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 55 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 100 NM In the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 180 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 15.8S 57.2E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION TROPICALE)
48 HRS: 17.1S 54.0E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
======================

For the last 6 hours, Anais configuration has few evolved. Classical satellite imagery still shows an exposed low level circulation center located just the northwestern limit of convection (DT slightly increased at 3.0). North-westerly shear is moderate to rather strong (0600z CIMSS data 300/18 kt), and ocean heat content is poor (sea surface temperatures at 24-25C). Current intensity is maintained at 50 kt according to this little break of weakening.

Available numerical guidance are in rather good agreement for the forecast track. American models and ARPEGE suggest a more north track that ECMWF. RSMC forecast track remains close to ECMWF. Anais should remain under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge located in the southeast and so should follow a west southwestward track.

Environmental conditions remains very unfavorable over the forecast period, especially vertical wind shear that will increase more clearly tonight, and Anais should lost tropical storm status within the next 24 hours and dissipate at 72 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
2:00 AM PDT October 16 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: "PAUL" Moving Faster North Northeastward

At 6:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Paul (967 hPa) located at 21.9N 112.7W or 175 NM south of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico has sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 25.9N 112.7W - 70 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 2)
48 HRS: 28.6N 115.1W - 35 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 31.0N 120.5W - (Low Pressure Area)

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A HURRICANE WARNING is in effect for the western coast of Baja California from Santa Fe northward to Punta Abreojos

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for the western coast of Baja California north of Punta Abreojos to El Pocito

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for western coast of Baja California south of Santa Fe to Agua Blanca

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for eastern coast of Baja California from La Paz to Bania San Juan Bautista

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is in effect for the western coast of Baja California north of El Pocito to Punta Eugenia
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
15:00 PM JST October 16 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Ogasawara Shoto Waters

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maria (990 hPa) located at 26.7N 140.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 31.1N 142.6E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - southeast of Hachijo jima
48 HRS: 37.4N 154.0E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ANAIS (01-20122013)
10:30 AM RET October 16 2012
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Anais (992 hPa) located at 13.9S 61.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/12 HRS

Storm Force Winds
====================
35 NM in the southern semi-circle and the northeastern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=================
55 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 180 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 15.5S 58.0E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 16.5S 55.0E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
======================

Anais continues to rapidly weaken under the influence of increasing northwesterly shear and due to low oceanic heat contain (sea surface temperatures at 24-25C). Classical satellite imagery shows an exposed low level circulation center located 20-30 NM to the northwest of the convection.

Available numerical guidances are in rather good agreement for the forecast track. American models and ARPEGE suggest a more north track that the previous run. Anais should remain under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge located in the southeast and so should follow a west southwestward track.

Environmental conditions remains very unfavorable over the forecast period and Anais should lose tropical storm status within the next 24-36 hours and dissipate after 72 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
602. whitewabit (Mod)
Suppose to be up around 73 degrees later today .. might be one of the last warm days of the year ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 368 Comments: 32392
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #91
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
15:00 PM JST October 16 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon south southwest of Minami daito

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (975 hPa) located at 21.4N 129.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.4N 127.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - south of Naha
48 HRS: 24.0N 128.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - south southeast of Naha
72 HRS: 27.0N 131.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
12:00 PM JST October 16 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Ogasawara Shoto Waters

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maria (990 hPa) located at 26.0N 140.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 30.2N 141.6E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - north northwest of Chichi jima
45 HRS: 35.2N 150.1E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Sea East Of Japan
69 HRS: 36.8N 164.3E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #90
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
12:00 PM JST October 16 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon south southwest of Minami daito

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (975 hPa) located at 21.6N 129.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 22.1N 127.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - south of Naha
45 HRS: 23.1N 127.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - south of Naha
69 HRS: 26.1N 129.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #17
TROPICAL STORM NINA (PRAPIROON)
11:00 AM PhST October 16 2012
========================================

"NINA" has weakened into a tropical storm as it continues to linger over the Philippine Sea

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Nina [980 hPa] located at 22.0°N 130.0°E or 740 km northeast of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Additional Information
=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-20 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 600 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern Seaboard of northern Luzon and the eastern Seaboard of northern and central Luzon due to big waves generated by Tropical Storm "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL (EP162012)
8:00 PM PDT October 15 2012
==========================================

SUBJECT: "PAUL" Weakens Into A Category Two Hurricane..

At 0:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Paul (967 hPa) located at 20.0N 113.6W or 270 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula, Mexico has sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 24.8N 112.5W - 80 knots (Severe Tropical Cyclone/CAT 2)
48 HRS: 28.1N 113.9W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone Overland)
72 HRS: 30.5N 119.0W - (Low Pressure Area)

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A HURRICANE WARNING is in effect for the western coast of Baja California from Santa Fe northward to Punta Abreojos

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for the western coast of Baja California north of Punta Abreojos to El Pocito

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for western coast of Baja California south of Santa Fe to Agua Blanca

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING is in effect for eastern coast of Baja California from La Paz to Bania San Juan Bautista

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is in effect for the western coast of Baja California north of El Pocito to Punta Eugenia
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ANAIS (01-20122013)
4:30 AM RET October 16 2012
==========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Anais (988 hPa) located at 13.8S 62.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/4.0/W1.0/6 HRS

Storm Force Winds
====================
from the center, extending up to 45 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 10 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 95 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 165 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 15.5S 58.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 16.7S 55.4E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
======================

Anais is weakening rapidly under increasing north to northwesterly shear and low oceanic heat contain. N18 AMSUB imagery of 2245z show an exposed low level circulation center located 20-30 NM to the north of the residual convection that appears shapeless. Consequently the Dvorak constraints are broken for the present intensity estimate. It remains in the lower side of the other available estimate (PGTW at 4.5, Advance Dvorak Techneque at 4.5 but displaced the center, SATCON at 81 kt at 2200z, 1 min wind)

Available numerical guidance (1200z) are now in better agreement for the long term track forecast. The recurvature scenario appear less likely and anais should remain under the steering influence of a low to mid-level ridge located to its southeast and follow a general west southwards track.

Environmental conditions are expected to remain unfavorable over the forecast period and Anais should be below tropical storm strength within the next 24 to 36 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MARIA (T1222)
9:00 AM JST October 16 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Ogasawara Shoto Waters

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Maria (990 hPa) located at 25.4N 140.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
=================
180 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================

24 HRS: 29.4N 140.8E - 50 knots (Severe Tropical Storm/CAT 2) - north northwest of Chichi jima
48 HRS: 35.2N 150.1E - 45 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) - Sea East Of Japan
72 HRS: 36.8N 164.3E - Extratropical Cyclone In Sea Far East Of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #89
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM PRAPIROON (T1221)
9:00 AM JST October 16 2012
================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon south of Minami daito

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Prapiroon (975 hPa) located at 21.8N 130.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
300 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
270 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 21.9N 127.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - southwest of Minami daito
48 HRS: 23.1N 127.6E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - south of Naha
72 HRS: 26.1N 129.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) - Sea South Of Okinawa
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46908

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