September 1 2012 - October 31 2012

By: HadesGodWyvern , 11:32 PM GMT on August 31, 2012

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Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon 2012 season
=================================================
Information used for this blog are from

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

-----------------
Northwestern Pacific
-----------------
Japan Meteorological Agency: Tokyo
Hong Kong Observatory: China
Typhoon 2000: Philippines
PAGASA: Manila, Philippines

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Northern Indian Ocean
--------------------
India Meteorological Department: New Delphi
Thailand Meteorological Department

------------------------
Northeastern Pacific Ocean
------------------------
National Hurricane Center: Miami, FL

-------------------------
Central Northeastern Pacific
----------------------------
Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Honolulu, Hawaii

---------------------------
Southern Indian Ocean
---------------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta: Indonesia
Mauritius Meteorological Service
Reunion Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

--------------------------
Southern Pacific Ocean
-----------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Fiji Meteorological Services: Nadi
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center: Wellington

=========================================

=======================
Northeast Pacific Ocean
========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Miami National Hurricane Center

National Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

September
EP092012.Ileana - 976 hPa
EP102012.John - 1001 hPa
EP112012.Kristy - 998 hPa
EP122012.Lane - 989 hPa
EP132012.Miriam - 958 hPa
EP142012.Norman - 1000 hPa

October
EP152012.Olivia - 998 hPa
EP162012.Paul - 960 hPa
EP172012.Rosa - 1002 hPa

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=======================
North Central Pacific Ocean
========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Honolulu National Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================



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========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

September
T201216.Sanba/Karen - 900 hPa
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 hPa
T201217.Jelawat/Lawin - 905 hPa
T201218.Ewiniar - 985 hPa
T201219.Maliksi - 985 hPa

October
T201220.Gaemi/Marce - 990 hPa
T201221.Prapiroon/Nina - 940 hPa
T201222.Maria - 990 hPa
T201223.Son-Tinh/Ofel - 945 hPa


-------------------------------------------------
========================
North Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

October
BOB01-2012.NONAME - 1003 hPa
ARB01-2012.Murjan - 1000 hPa
BOB02-2012.Nilam - 992 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
Southwestern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Seychelles Meteorological Services
Mauritius Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

October
01R.Anais - 949 hPa

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India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST October 27 2012
==================================

A Low Pressure Area has formed near 12.0N 91.0E over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighborhood. The associated upper air cyclonic circulation extends up to 3.1 km about mean sea level. The system would likely become more well marked during the next 24 hours.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #42
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
12:00 PM JST October 27 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (975 hPa) located at 16.8N 110.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 18.8N 106.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Gulf of Tonkin
45 HRS: 20.2N 104.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
69 HRS: 20.9N 103.9E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309


possible cyclone in the Arabian Sea.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
9:00 AM JST October 27 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (975 hPa) located at 16.5N 111.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 18.7N 106.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Gulf of Tonkin
48 HRS: 20.2N 104.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 20.9N 103.9E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #40
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
6:00 AM JST October 27 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (975 hPa) located at 16.4N 111.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 18.6N 107.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Gulf of Tonkin
45 HRS: 19.6N 105.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
69 HRS: 20.7N 102.6E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
3:00 AM JST October 27 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (975 hPa) located at 16.1N 112.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 18.1N 107.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Gulf of Tonkin
48 HRS: 19.6N 105.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 20.7N 102.6E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #16 (FINAL)
TROPICAL STORM OFEL (SON-TINH)
5:00 PM PhST, October 26 2012
==============================

Tropical Storm "OFEL" continues to move away and is now outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Ofel [991 hPa] located at 15.4°N 114.2°E or 570 km west of Iba, Zambales has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Additional Information
=========================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-20 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

With this development, this is the final bulletin for this weather disturbance.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
14:30 PM IST October 26 2012
====================================

a low pressure area would develop over south Andaman sea during next 24 hours.

A low pressure area may develop over southeast Arabian Sea around October 30th.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
21:00 PM JST October 26 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (980 hPa) located at 15.5N 113.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 17.4N 109.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 18.9N 105.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 20.0N 102.0E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
DEPRESSION, FORMER MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
8:30 AM IST October 26 2012
========================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Depression, Former Murjan over Somalia moved further westward and now lays near 9.5N 48.5E. The cyclone will likely move westward and weaken into a low pressure area during the next 12 hours.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the India Meteorological Department on this system.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
15:00 PM JST October 26 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (980 hPa) located at 14.7N 114.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.6N 109.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
48 HRS: 18.2N 105.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 19.6N 101.7E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos

Additional Information
=======================
Son-Tinh will move at west northwest for the next 72 hours

Son-Tinh will be upgraded to typhoon within 24 hours

Cyclone will develop because spiral cloud bands have become better organized and will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be 4.5 after 24 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #34
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
12:00 PM JST October 26 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (990 hPa) located at 14.6N 114.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.4N 110.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
45 HRS: 17.7N 106.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
69 HRS: 19.1N 101.9E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #15
TROPICAL STORM OFEL (SON-TINH)
11:00 AM PhST, October 26 2012
==============================

Tropical Storm "OFEL" has slightly gained strength as it continues to move away from the country and is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility this afternoon

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Ofel [991 hPa] located at 14.9°N 115.5°E or 440 km west of Iba, Zambales has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Additional Information
=========================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-20 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern and central Luzon due to the combined effect of Tropical Storm "Ofel" and surge of Northeast Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today or earlier.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
DEPRESSION, FORMER MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
5:30 AM IST October 26 2012
========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over coastal Somalia moved westward and weakened into a depression. Depression, Former Murjan now lies near 9.5N 49.5E. The system is likely to move west southwestward and weaken into a low pressure area during the next 12 hours.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
9:00 AM JST October 26 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (990 hPa) located at 14.6N 115.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.1N 110.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 17.7N 106.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 19.1N 101.9E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
DEEP DEPRESSION, FORMER MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
23:30 PM IST October 25 2012
========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Murjan moved westward and crossed Somalia coast near 9.5N between 17:00 - 18:00 PM UTC, today. The cyclone also weakened into a deep depression after it crossed the coast. Deep Depression, Former Murjan now lies near 9.5N 51.0E, overland Somalia. The deep depression will likely move west southwestward and weaken further.

Satellite imagery show associated broken intense convection over the Arabian Sea between 7.0N to 12.0N west of 53.0E and over northern Somalia and adjoining Ethiopia. Convection has split, indicating disorganization and weakening of the cyclone. The current cloud top temperature due to convection is around -50 to -60C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots gusting up to 40 knots. The state of the sea off Somalia coast will be very rough.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
6:00 AM JST October 26 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (996 hPa) located at 14.4N 116.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.0N 111.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
45 HRS: 17.7N 106.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
69 HRS: 18.9N 102.4E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #14
TROPICAL STORM OFEL (SON-TINH)
5:00 AM PhST, October 6 2012
==============================

Tropical Storm "OFEL" continuous to move away and is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility today

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Ofel [994 hPa] located at 15.0°N 116.7°E or 320 km west of Iba, Zambales has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Additional Information
=========================

Public storm warning signal elsewhere is now lowered.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-20 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern and central Luzon due to the surge of Northeast Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
3:00 AM JST October 26 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (996 hPa) located at 14.6N 116.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.2N 111.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 17.7N 106.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland Vietnam
72 HRS: 18.9N 102.4E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
CYCLONIC STORM MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
20:30 PM IST October 25 2012
========================================

At 15:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Murjan moved westward and now lays near 9.5N 51.0E or near Somalia coast. The cyclone is likely to move west southwestward and cross Somalia coast between 9.0N and 9.5N between 18:00 and 21:00 PM UTC, today.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of Murjan is T2.5 Associated broken moderate to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 6.0N to 11.5N and to the west of 54.0E and Somalia. Convection has split, indicating disorganization and weakening of the system. The cloud top temperature due to convection is in increasing trend between -50 to -60C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots gusting up to 45 knots. The central pressure of the cyclone is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea around the center of the cyclone is high.

At 15:00 PM UTC, Socotra Island, Yemen reported a 1008 hPa mean sea level pressure and 20 knots wind.

The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude >1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to continue to be in phase 2 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 26-28º c. Over southwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over Somalia coast and adjoining seas. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 16.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence as well as lower level relative vorticity and upper level divergence show no significant change during past six hrs. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hPA levels is moderate (05-15 knots) around system center and there has been fall in wind shear by 5-10 knots. The system is interacting with land surface.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
9 HRS: 8.8N 49.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
21 HRS: 7.8N 47.5E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #13
TROPICAL STORM OFEL (SON-TINH)
11:00 PM PhST, October 25 2012
==============================

Tropical Storm "OFEL" has maintained its strength and is now traversing the West Philippine Sea away from the country

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Ofel [994 hPa] located at 14.7°N 117.8°E or 240 km west of Bataan has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon Region
==============
1. Zambales
2. Bataan

Additional Information
=========================

Public storm warning signal elsewhere is now lowered.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-20 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern Luzon and over the eastern seaboard of central Luzon due to the surge of Northeast Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
CYCLONIC STORM MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
17:30 PM IST October 25 2012
========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Murjan moved southwestward and now lays near 9.5N 51.5E or about 2300 km west southwest of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep) 430 km south southwest of Socotra Island, Yemen and 160 km east of Scusciuban, Somalia. Cyclone is likely to move west southwestward and cross Somalia coast near 9.0N between 18:00 and 21:00 PM UTC, today.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of Murjan is T2.5. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -70C. Associated broken to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 7.0N to 14.0N and to the west of 54.5E and adjoining Somalia.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots gusting up to 45 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea around the center of the cyclone is high.

At 12:00 PM UTC, Socotra Island, Yemen reported a 1006 hPa mean sea level pressure and 30 knot winds.

The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude > 1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to continue to be in phase 2 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 26-28C Over southwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over Somalia coast and adjoining seas. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 16.0º n and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence as well as lower level relative vorticity and upper level divergence show no significant change during past six hrs. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (05-15 knots) around system center and there has been fall in wind shear by 5-10 knots. The system is interacting with land surface

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
12 HRS: 8.5N 49.5E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 7.5N 47.5E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Not surprisingly news from on the ground in Somalia is hard to find.

BBC News - Somalia profile - Overview
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
21:00 PM JST October 25 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (998 hPa) located at 14.4N 117.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 18 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.4N 111.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 17.8N 107.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Gulf of Tonkin
72 HRS: 19.4N 103.2E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #28
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
18:00 PM JST October 25 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (998 hPa) located at 14.3N 118.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 20 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 16.4N 112.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
45 HRS: 17.2N 109.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
69 HRS: 18.5N 104.4E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
CYCLONIC STORM MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
14:30 PM IST October 25 2012
========================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Murjan moved westward and now lays near 10.0N 52.5E or 2200 km west southwest of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep) 330 km south southwest of Socotra Island, Yemen and 250 km east of Scusciuban, Somalia. The cyclone is likely to move west southwestward and cross Somalia coast near 9.5 at around 21:00 PM UTC, today (October 25th).

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of Murjan is T2.5. the lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -70C. Associated moderate to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 7.0N to 14.0N and to the west of 54.5E and adjoining Somalia. The maximum intense convection lies to the southwest sector.

3 minute sustained winds near the center of Murjan is 35 knots gusting up to 45 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea around the center of the cyclone is high.

At 8:00 AM UTC, Socotra Island reported a 1008 hPa mean sea level pressure and winds of 25 knots.

The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude >1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to continue to be in phase 2 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 26-28C. Over southwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system centre. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over somalia coast and adjoining seas. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence as well as lower level relative vorticity show no significant change during past six hrs. However, upper level divergence shows increase during the same period. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hpa levels is moderate (05-15 knots) around system center and there has been no significant change during past 24 hrs.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
9 HRS: 9.6N 51.0E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
15 HRS: 9.4N 50.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
21 HRS: 8.5N 48.5E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #12
TROPICAL STORM OFEL (SON-TINH)
5:00 PM PhST, October 25 2012
==============================

Tropical Storm "OFEL" has accelerated while maintaining its strength and continues to move towards the West Philippine Sea.

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Ofel [994 hPa] located at 14.2°N 119.1°E or 40 km west of Mamburao, Occidental Mindoro has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon Region
==============
1. Metro Manila
2. Bataan
3. Zambales
4. Cavite
5. Batangas
6. Northern part of Mindoro
7. Lubang Island

Additional Information
=========================

Public storm warning signal elsewhere is now lowered.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-20 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 400 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern Luzon and over the eastern seaboard of central Luzon due to the combined effect of Tropical Storm "OFEL" and the surge of Northeast Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM tonight.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
CYCLONIC STORM MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
11:30 AM IST October 25 2012
========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC. Cyclonic Storm Murjan moved southwestward and now lays near 10.0N 53.0E or about 2150 km west southwest of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep) 300 km south southwest of Socotra Island, Yemen, and 300 km east of Scusciuban, Somalia. Cyclone will likely move west southwestward and cross Somalia coast near 9.5N around 21:00 PM UTC, today (October 25th).

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is 2.5. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -70C. Associated broken moderate to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 7.0N to 13.5N and to the west of 55.0E and adjoining Somalia coast. The maximum convection lies to the southwest sector.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots gusting up to 45 knots. The central pressure of the cyclone is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclone.

Socotra Island, Yemen reported a 1009 hPa mean sea level pressure

The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude >1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to continue to be in phase 2 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 26-28C. Over southwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over Somalia coast and adjoining seas. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0º n and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence as well as lower level relative vorticity show no significant change during past six hrs. However, upper level divergence shows increase during the same period. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (05-15 knots) around system center and there has been no significant change during past 24 hrs.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 9.6N 51.0E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 8.5N 48.5E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
CYCLONIC STORM MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
8:30 AM IST October 25 2012
========================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm, MURJAN over southwest Arabian Sea moved westwards and lay centered near 10.5N 53.5E, or about 2100 km west southwest of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep) about 240 km south of Socotra Island, Yemen and 350 km east of Scusciuban, Somalia.

It would move west-southwestwards and cross Somalia coast near 9.5N at around 21:00 PM UTC, (today) October 25th)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
15:00 PM JST October 25 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (998 hPa) located at 14.0N 119.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 15.9N 114.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 17.2N 109.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 18.5N 104.4E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
CYCLONIC STORM MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
5:30 AM IST October 25 2012
========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Murjan moved further westward and now lays near 10.5N 54.0E or about 2050 km west southwest of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep), about 250 km south southeast of Socotra Island, Yemen and about 400 km east of Scusciuban, Somalia. Cyclone is likely to move west southwestward and cross Somalia coast near 5.0N around 21:00 PM UTC, Today (October 25th).

According to satellite imagery the Dvorak intensity of the cyclone is 2.5. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -70C. Associated broken moderate to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 7.0N to 13.5N and to the west of 55.5E and adjoining Somalia coast. The convection shows curved band features disappearing. However, the maximum intense convection lies to the southwest sector.

3 minute sustained winds of Murjan is 35 knots gusting up to 45 knots near the center. The central pressure of the system is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the system.

The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude >1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to continue to be in phase 2 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 26-28C. Over southwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over Somalia coast and adjoining seas. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 15.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence shows slight decrease during past six hrs. However, upper level divergence shows no significant change as well as lower level relative vorticity. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (5-15 knots) around system center and there has been no significant change during past 24 HRS.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 10.1N 52.0E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 9.5N 50.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
36 HRS: 8.6N 48.5E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
12:00 PM JST October 25 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (998 hPa) located at 13.4N 120.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 15.2N 114.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
45 HRS: 16.2N 109.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
69 HRS: 17.7N 105.2E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
TROPICAL STORM OFEL (SON-TINH)
11:00 AM PhST, October 25 2012
==============================

Tropical Storm "OFEL" has crossed the southern part of Mindoro Island and is now moving towards the West Philippine Sea

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Ofel [994 hPa] located at 13.1°N 120.3°E or 40 km west of Mamburao, Occidental Mindoro has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #2
-------------------

Luzon Region
=============
1. Batangas
2. Lubang Island
3. Marinduque
4. Occidental Mindoro
5. Oriental Mindoro
6. Romblon

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon Region
==============
1. Metro Manila
2. Bataan
3. Southern Quezon
4. Burias Island
5. Masbate

Visayas Region
=============
1. Aklan
2. Capiz
3. Iloilo
4. Calamian Group of Islands

Additional Information
=========================

Public storm warning signal elsewhere is now lowered.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal (PSWS) #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides likewise those living in coastal areas under signal #2 are alerted of possible storm surges.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-25 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 350 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of Luzon and over the eastern seaboard of central Luzon due to the combined effect of Tropical Storm "Ofel" and the surge of Northeast Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
CYCLONIC STORM MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
2:30 AM IST October 25 2012
========================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Murjan moved further westward and now lays near 10.5N 54.5E or 2000 km west southwest of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep) and about 280 km south southeast of Socotra Island, Yemen. Cyclone is likely to move west southwestward and cross Somalia coast between 8.0N and 9.5N at around 0:00 AM UTC October 26th.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the cyclone is 2.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -65C. Associated broken moderate to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 7.0N to 14.0N and 48.0E to 55.0E. The convection shows curved band features disappearing

3 minute sustained winds near the center of Murjan is 35 knots gusting up to 45 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclone.

The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude >1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to continue to be in phase 2 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 26-28º c. Over southwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over Somalia coast and adjoining seas. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence has increased during past six hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (05-15 knots) around system center.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
9 HRS: 10.0N 53.5E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 9.7N 52.5E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
33 HRS: 9.3N 50.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
9:00 AM JST October 25 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (998 hPa) located at 12.9N 120.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 14.6N 115.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 16.2N 109.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 17.7N 105.2E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos

Additional Information
========================
Tropical Storm Son-Tinh will move west northwest for the next 72 hours

Son-Tinh will be upgraded to a severe tropical storm within hours

Cyclone will develop because system will move into higher sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be 3.5 after 24 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
6:00 AM JST October 25 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Central Philippines

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (996 hPa) located at 12.3N 122.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 14.1N 116.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
45 HRS: 15.0N 111.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
69 HRS: 16.5N 105.6E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #10
TROPICAL STORM OFEL (SON-TINH)
5:00 AM PhST, October 25 2012
==============================

Tropical Storm "OFEL" has made landfall over the southwestern part of Masbate and over Sibuyan Island.

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Ofel [997 hPa] located at 12.4°N 122.5°E or over Sibuyan Island, Romblon has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #2
-------------------

Luzon Region
=============
1. Masbate
2. Ticao Islands
3. Romblon
4. Oriental and Occidental Mindoro
5. Lubang Island
6. Marinduque
7. Batangas

Visayas Region
=============
1. Aklan
2. Antique
3. Iloilo
4. Capiz
5. Guimaras
6. Northern part of Negros Occidental

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon Region
==============
1. Metro Manila
2. Bataan
3. Zambales
4. Pampanga
5. Bulacan
6. Rizal
7. Cavite
8. Laguna
9. Southern part of Quezon Province
10. Camarines Norte
11. Camarines Sur
12. Catanduanes
13. Albay
14. Sorsogon
15. Burias Island
16. Calamian Group of Island
17. Cuyo Island

Visayas Region
=============
1. Leyte Provinces
2. Samar Provinces
3. Cebu
4. Camotes Island
5. Rest of Negros Occidental
6. Negros Oriental

Additional Information
=========================

Public storm warning signal elsewhere is now lowered.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal (PSWS) #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides likewise those living in coastal areas under signal #2 are alerted of possible storm surges.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-25 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 450 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of Luzon and Visayas due to the combined effect of Tropical Storm "OFEL" surge of Northeast Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
CYCLONIC STORM MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
23:30 PM IST October 24 2012
========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Murjan has moved further westward and lays near 10.5N 55.5E or 1850 km west southwest of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep) and 290 km southeast of Socotra Island, Yemen. Cyclone will likely move west southwestward and cross Somalia coast between 8.0N and 9.5N around 0:00 AM UTC October 26th.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -75C. Associated broken moderate to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea betwwen 7.0N to 15.0N and 49.0E to 56.0E. The convection shows curved band pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots and gusting up to 45 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1000 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the center of the cyclone.

The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude >1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to continue to be in phase 2 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 26-28C. Over southwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over Somalia coast and adjoining seas. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence has increased during past six hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 hpa levels is moderate (10-20 knots) around system center.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 9.9N 53.5E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 9.5N 51.5E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
42 HRS: 8.6N 48.5E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
3:00 AM JST October 25 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Central Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (996 hPa) located at 11.9N 122.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 14 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 14.1N 116.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 15.0N 111.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 16.5N 105.6E - Tropical Depression Overland Laos
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #9
TROPICAL STORM OFEL (SON-TINH)
11:00 PM PhST, October 24 2012
==============================

Tropical Storm "OFEL" is now over the Visayan Sea and moving towards Jintotolo Channel (Roxas-Masbate Area)

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Ofel [997 hPa] located at 11.5°N 124.0°E or 40 km Northwest of Tabango, Leyte has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #2
-------------------

Luzon Region
=============
1. Masbate
2. Burias
3. Ticao Islands
4. Romblon
5. Oriental and Occidental Mindoro
6. Marinduque

Visayas Region
=============
1. Aklan
2. Antique
3. Iloilo
4. Capiz
5. Guimaras
6. Biliran
7. Northern part of Negros Occidental
8. Leyte
9. Southern Leyte
10. Western and Eastern Samar
11. Camotes Island
12. Northern part of Cebu

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon Region
==============
1. Metro Manila
2. Bataan
3. Cavite
4. Laguna
5. Batangas
6. Lubang Island
7. Calamian group of Island
8. Cuyo Island
9. Southern part of Quezon Province
10. Camarines Norte
11. Camarines Sur
12. Catanduanes
13. Albay
14. Sorsogon

Visayas Region
=============
1. Rest of Negros Occidental
2. Negros Oriental
3. Rest of Cebu
4. Bohol
5. Siquijor
6. Northern Samar

Mindanao Region
--------------
1. Dinagat Island
2. Camiguin
3. Siargao Island
4. Surigao Del Norte

Additional Information
=========================

Public storm warning signal elsewhere is now lowered.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal (PSWS) #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides likewise those living in coastal areas under signal #2 are alerted of possible storm surges.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-20 mm per hour (moderate to- intense) within the 450 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of Luzon due to the surge of Northeast Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
CYCLONIC STORM MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
20:30 PM IST October 24 2012
========================================

At 15:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Murjan has moved westward and lays centered near 10.5N 56.0E, or about 1800 km west southwest of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep) and about 330 km southeast of Socotra Island, Yemen. Cyclone will move west southwestward and cross Somalia coast between 8.0N and 9.5N around 0:00 AM October 26th.

According to satellite imagery, The Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.5. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80C. Associated broken moderate to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 7.5N to 16.0N and 49.0E to 56.0E. The convection shows curved band pattern.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots winds gusting up to 45 knots. The central pressure of the cyclone is 1000 hPa.
The state of the sea is high around the cyclone.

The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude >1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to continue to be in phase 2 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 26-28C. Over southwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 square around the system center. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over Somalia coast and adjoining seas. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence has increased during past six hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (10-20 knots) around system center.

Forecast and Intensity
===================

12 HRS: 10.1N 54.5E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 9.7N 52.5E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 8.6N 48.5E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
CYCLONIC STORM MURJAN (ARB01-2012)
17:30 PM IST October 24 2012
=====================================

The Deep Depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved west southwestwards, intensified into a cyclonic storm. Cyclone Storm Murjan lays near 10.5N 56.5E, about 1750 km west southwest of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep) and about 370 km southeast of Socotra Island, Yemen.

It would move west southwestwards and cross Somalia coast between 8.0N and 9.5N around morning of October 26th.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
21:00 PM JST October 24 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Central Philippines

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (998 hPa) located at 11.6N 123.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 14.2N 118.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 15.3N 113.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 16.5N 107.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
TROPICAL STORM OFEL (SON-TINH)
5:00 PM PhST, October 24 2012
==============================

Tropical Storm "OFEL" has slightly accelerated and is now crossing Leyte Province

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Ofel [997 hPa] located at 11.0°N 124.6°E or in the vicinity of Ormoc City, Leyte has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #2
-------------------

Luzon Region
=============
1. Masbate
2. Romblon

Visayas Region
=============
1. Eastern Samar
2. Western Samar
3. Leyte
4. Southern Leyte
5. Biliran Island
6. Camotes Island
7. Capiz
8. Aklan
9. Boracay Island
10. Northern Cebu
11. Bantayan Island
12. Northern Negros

Mindanao Region
================
1. Dinagat Island

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon Region
==============
1. Camarines Sur
2. Albay
3. Sorsogon
4. Burias Island
5. Southern Quezon
6. Marinduque
7. Oriental Mindoro
8. Occidental Mindoro
9. Calamian Group of Island
10. Batangas
11. Lubang Island
12. Cuyo Island

Visayas Region
=============
1. Northern Samar
2. Antique
3. Iloilo
4. Southern Negros
5. Southern Cebu
6. Bohol

Mindanao Region
--------------
1. Surigao del Norte
2. Siargao Island

Additional Information
=========================

Public storm warning signal elsewhere is now lowered.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal (PSWS) #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides likewise those living in coastal areas under signal #2 are alerted of possible storm surges.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-20 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 500 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Seaboards of Luzon due to the surge of Northeast Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM tonight.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
15:00 PM JST October 24 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Central Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (996 hPa) located at 10.8N 124.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 13.4N 119.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 15.3N 114.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 16.0N 109.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB01-2012
8:30 AM IST October 24 2012
=====================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Deep Depression ARB01-2012 over southwest Arabian Sea moved west southwestward and now lays near 11.0N 59.0E or 1500 km west of Amini Divi, India (Lakshadweep) and 600 km east southeast of Socotra Island, Yemen. The deep depression is likely to move west southwestward and cross Somalia coast between 9.0N and 10.5N at around 18:00 PM, October 25th. However the deep depression may weaken into a depression during the next 24 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -73C. Associated broken moderate to intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 7.5N to 16.0N and 51.5E to 61.0E. Convection is more intense to the southwest sector of the deep depression.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots. The central pressure of the system is 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is rough to very rough around the center.

The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 2 with amplitude > 1. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to continue to be in phase 2 during next 3 days. The sea surface temperature is about 26-28C. Over southwest and adjoining west central Arabian Sea. The ocean thermal energy is 50 -80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less than 50 kj/cm2 over Somalia coast and adjoining seas. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 14.0N and hence lies to the north of the system center. The low level convergence shows decreasing trend during past six hrs as well as upper level divergence and lower level relative vorticity. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (10-20 knots) around system center. It increases towards Somalia coast.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
9 HRS: 10.6N 56.7E - 25 knots (Depression)
21 HRS: 10.2N 54.0E - 25 knots (Depression)
45 HRS: 9.6N 50.0E - Low Pressure Area
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
5:30 AM IST October 24 2012
===========================

A trough of low over Gulf of Siam and neighborhood persists. Under its influence, a low pressure area would develop over south Andaman sea during next 48 hours. Numerical Weather Prediction Models are indicating its further intensification and initial west northwestwards movement
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
12:00 PM JST October 24 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Overland Southern Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (996 hPa) located at 10.3N 125.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 12.8N 121.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Philippines
45 HRS: 14.1N 116.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
69 HRS: 15.6N 111.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
TROPICAL STORM OFEL (SON-TINH)
11:00 AM PhST, October 24 2012
==============================

"OFEL" is now in the vicinity of Siargao Island and has accelerated while moving towards Southern Leyte

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Ofel (SON-TINH) [997 hPa] located at 10.1°N 126.0°E or vicinity of Siargao, Surigao del Norte has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #2
-------------------

Visayas Region
=============
1. Bohol
2. Cebu including Camotes Island
3. Leyte Provinces

Mindanao Region
================
1. Dinagat Island
2. Surigao del Norte
3. Surigao del Sur
4. Agusan Del Norte
5. Northern part of Agusan Del Sur
6. Camiguin Island

Signal Warning #1
----------------

Luzon Region
==============
1. Masbate
2. Romblon

Visayas Region
=============
1. Northern Samar
2. Eastern Samar
3. Western Samar
4. Biliran
5. Capiz
6. Antique
7. Aklan including Boracay Island
8. Iloilo
9. Guimaras Island
10. Negros Oriental
11. Negros Occidental
12. Siquijor Island

Mindanao Region
--------------
1. Misamis Oriental
2. Rest of Agusan Del Sur
3. Northern part of Bukidnon

Additional Information
=========================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal (PSWS) #2 and #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides likewise those living in coastal areas under signal #2 are alerted of possible storm surges.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-20 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 500 km diameter of the tropical storm.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Eastern Seaboards of southern Luzon, seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao due to the combined effect of the Tropical Storm "Ofel" and the Northeast Monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
9:00 AM JST October 24 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of Mindanao

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (996 hPa) located at 10.0N 126.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 12.3N 121.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Philippines
48 HRS: 14.1N 116.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
72 HRS: 15.6N 111.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
TROPICAL STORM SON-TINH (T1223)
6:00 AM JST October 24 2012
====================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea East Of Mindanao

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Son-Tinh (998 hPa) located at 9.5N 126.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 11.2N 123.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Philippines
45 HRS: 12.8N 118.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
69 HRS: 14.6N 113.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45309

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