May 1 2012 - June 30 2012

By: HadesGodWyvern , 12:46 AM GMT on May 01, 2012

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Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon 2012 season
=================================================

Information used for this blog are from

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

-----------------
Northwestern Pacific
-----------------
Japan Meteorological Agency: Tokyo
Hong Kong Observatory: China
Typhoon 2000: Philippines
PAGASA: Manila, Philippines

------------------
Northern Indian Ocean
--------------------
India Meteorological Department: New Delphi
Thailand Meteorological Department

------------------------
Northeastern Pacific Ocean
------------------------
National Hurricane Center: Miami, FL

-------------------------
Central Northeastern Pacific
----------------------------
Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Honolulu, Hawaii

---------------------------
Southern Indian Ocean
---------------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta: Indonesia
Mauritius Meteorological Service
Reunion Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

--------------------------
Southern Pacific Ocean
-----------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Fiji Meteorological Services: Nadi
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center: Wellington

=========================================

CURRENT ACTIVE STORMS IN THE WORLD



-------------------------------------------------


=======================
Northeast Pacific Ocean
========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Miami National Hurricane Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

May
EP012012.Aletta - 1003 hPa
EP022012.Bud - 960 hPa

June
EP032012.Carlotta - 976 hPa


------------------------------------------------- ---

=======================
North Central Pacific Ocean
========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Honolulu National Hurricane Center

Central Pacific Hurricane Center


========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

May
T022012.Sanvu - 975 hPa
T032012.Mawar/Ambo - 960 hPa

June
T042012.Guchol/Butchoy - 930 hPa
T052012.Talim/Carina - 985 hPa
T062012.Doksuri/Dindo - 992 hPa

-------------------------------------------------

========================
North Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

-------------------------------------------------

==========================
Southeastern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Center

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

"Jakarta" Tropical Depression - 1000 hPa

==========================
Southwestern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Mauritius Meteorological Services
Seychelles Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

14R.Kuena - 990 hPa

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204. HadesGodWyvern
5:53 AM GMT on June 10, 2012
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 PM PDT June 9 2012
====================================

Showers activity associated with the low pressure area about 650 miles south southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico continues to become better organized. Upper level winds are currently conducive for additional development and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two as the system moves westward at about 10 MPH.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================

There is a MODERATE chance of this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
203. HadesGodWyvern
8:11 PM GMT on June 09, 2012

WHXX01 KMIA 091835
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1835 UTC SAT JUN 9 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP932012) 20120609 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120609 1800 120610 0600 120610 1800 120611 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.4N 105.3W 9.9N 106.5W 10.6N 108.0W 11.5N 110.0W
BAMD 9.4N 105.3W 9.6N 107.4W 10.0N 109.7W 10.6N 112.1W
BAMM 9.4N 105.3W 9.6N 107.1W 10.0N 109.0W 10.5N 111.1W
LBAR 9.4N 105.3W 9.8N 107.3W 10.1N 109.8W 10.7N 112.7W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS 57KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS 57KTS



Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
202. HadesGodWyvern
8:07 PM GMT on June 09, 2012
National Hurricane Center Miami
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:00 AM PDT June 9 2012
==================================

Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Further development of this system is possible during the next couple of days as it moves west northwestward at 10-15 MPH

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================

There is a MODERATE chance of this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
201. HadesGodWyvern
6:42 AM GMT on June 07, 2012
no problem =)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
DEPRESSION SE COMBLANT, FORMER KUENA (14-20112012)
10:00 AM RET June 7 2012
========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Filling Depression, Former Kuena (1003 hPa) located at 9.1S 56.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The low is reported as moving northwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 8.2S 55.1E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)
24 HRS: 7.6S 53.8E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)
48 HRS: 5.2S 51.2E - se Dissipant

Additional Information
====================

Undergoing northerly wind shear, system has rapidly weaken and deep convective activity is now far in the south southeast of the low level circulation center. The residual low is expected to keep on shifting globally northwestwards within the next 48-60 hrs filling then dissipating.

A regeneration seems now very unlikely.

Residual deep convective activity should however concern Agalega within the next 24 hours.

Last warning related to this system unless regeneration.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
199. whitewabit (Mod)
HGW .. Hey just wanted to say Thank You for all you do in posting the Typhoon warnings !! Know its a lot of work ..

Thank You !!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Japan Meteorological Agency
DEVELOPED LOW, FORMER MAWAR (T1203)
9:00 AM JST June 7 2012
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Low, Former Mawar (968 hPa) located at 39.0N 151.0E. The low is reported as moving northeast at 25 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE KUENA (14-20112012)
4:00 AM RET June 7 2012
========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Kuena (996 hPa) located at 9.9S 56.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/12 HRS

Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 80 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 160 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 9.8S 54.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 9.6S 53.1E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 8.4S 50.2E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant))
72 HRS: 7.6S 48.8E - se Dissipant

Additional Information
====================

Kuena begin a weakening phase. The system seem undergoing a northerly constraint, the center is located on the northern edge of convection. On and after 24 hours, divergence is expected to weaken then the easterly vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen in the same time. System should then quickly weaken and dissipate. System keeps on tracking globally westward on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressure belt.

In this month of June, environmental sea level pressures are high and system mean sea level pressure is therefore higher than average for a system with this intensity especially as the size remains small to medium.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services on TC Kuena will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
DEVELOPING LOW, FORMER MAWAR (T1203)
3:00 AM JST June 7 2012
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Developing Extratropical Low, Former Mawar (964 hPa) located at 38.0N 150.0E. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 30 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE KUENA (14-20112012)
22:00 PM RET June 6 2012
========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Kuena (992 hPa) located at 10.3S 56.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
45 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
55 NM radius from the center extending up to 180 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 10.0S 55.4E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 9.8S 54.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 8.9S 51.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 7.0S 49.6E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
====================

Kuena has probably reached it intensity peak during the morning. Since this maximum, cumulonimbus tops become being warmer and system probably begin a weakening phase. The system seem undergoing a little northerly constraint. On and after 24 hours, divergence is expected to weaken then the easterly vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen in the same time. System should then quickly weaken and dissipate. System keeps on tracking globally westward on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressure belt.

In this month of June, environmental sea level pressures are high and system mean sea level pressure is therefore higher than average for a system with this intensity especially as the size remains small to medium.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services on TC Kuena will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
DEVELOPING LOW, FORMER MAWAR (T1203)
21:00 PM JST June 6 2012
=================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Developing Extratropical Low, Former Mawar (968 hPa) located at 36.0N 147.0E. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 35 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
192. Skyepony (Mod)
TRMM pass of Mawar east of Japan. Click pic for movie.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
***Correction to advisory***

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Kuena (990 hPa) located at 10.3S 57.7E
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE KUENA (14-20112012)
16:00 PM RET June 6 2012
========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Kuena (990 hPa) located at 10.1S 58.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
45 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
55 NM radius from the center extending up to 180 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 10.4S 56.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 10.3S 54.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 9.5S 52.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 7.7S 49.9E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
====================

Kuena has probably reached it intensity peak during the morning. Since this maximum, cumulonimbus tops become being warmer and system probably begin a weakening phase. Easterly upper level jet existing northward of the system well sustains a good divergence aloft as showing by the cirrus in the meteosat7 visible channel. On and after 36 hours, divergence is expected to weaken and the easterly vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen in the same time. System should then quickly weaken and dissipate. System keeps on tracking globally westward on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressure belt.

In this month of june, environmental sea level pressures are high and system mean sea low pressure is therefore higher than average for a system with this intensity especially as the size remains small to medium.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services on TC Kuena will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #49
DEVELOPING LOW, FORMER MAWAR (T1203)
15:00 PM JST June 6 2012
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Developing Extratropical Low, Former Mawar (976 hPa) located at 34.0N 144.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 40 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
450 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
300 NM from the center in western quadrant

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the Japan Meteorological Agency
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE KUENA (14-20112012)
10:00 AM RET June 6 2012
========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Kuena (996 hPa) located at 10.1S 58.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/12 HRS

Gale Force Winds
================
40 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
60 NM radius from the center extending up to 180 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 10.6S 56.9E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 10.6S 55.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 10.0S 52.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 7.0S 49.6E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
====================

Storm has been named Kuena by Mauritius National Weather Service. SSMIS F16 02:15 UTC and F18 04:17 UTC microwave swaths show a well defined Curved band pattern. Low level circulation center (37ghz) is located at about 0.2 degrees north of the upper level circulation center (85ghz). Easterly upper level jet existing northward of the system well sustains a good divergence aloft as showing by the cirrus in the meteosat7 visible channel. On and after tau 36-48 hours, divergence is expected to weaken and the easterly vertical wind shear is expeted to strengthen in the same time.

System should then quickly weaken and dissipate. System keeps on tracking globally westward on the northern edge of The subtropical high pressure belt. The actual track is close to the last ECMWF run.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services on TC Kuena will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #48
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (T1203)
12:00 PM JST June 6 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Mawar (980 hPa) located at 32.2N 142.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 35 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
250 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
160 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 39.3N 151.4E - Extratropical Low East of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (T1203)
9:00 AM JST June 6 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Mawar (980 hPa) located at 31.0N 140.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 35 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
250 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
160 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 39.0N 151.0E - Extratropical Low East of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE (14-20112012)
4:00 AM RET June 6 2012
========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm (996 hPa) located at 9.4S 59.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Gale Force Winds
================
20 NM radius from the center extending up to 40 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 200 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 9.5S 58.0E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 9.5S 56.7E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 9.2S 54.0E - 20 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
====================

System has held its central dense overcast pattern over the past six hours. The 21:58 UTC NOAA19 picture(channel 3) confirms that the low level circulation center is now located under the convection, and displays very good polar outflow.

ASCAT data at 17:20 UTC depict a very asymmetrical wind field structure with stronger winds in the southern semi-circle, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical anticyclone, that will continue to strengthen south of the system during the next 24 hours. In the upper levels, the positive impact of the diminishing upper vertical wind shear within the next 24-30 hours, should be outbalanced by the weakening of the poleward upper divergence. So, intensification should slow down during the next 24-30 hours. On and after 36 hours, vertical wind shear should strengthen clearly and system is forecast to weaken rapidly. System tracks globally westward on the northern face of the subtropical high pressure belt. The actual track is close to the last ECMWF outcome.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #46
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (T1203)
6:00 AM JST June 6 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 21:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Mawar (980 hPa) located at 30.1N 138.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 30 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
250 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
160 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 37.5N 149.6E - Extratropical Low East of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 14-20112012
22:00 PM RET June 5 2012
========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 14 (999 hPa) located at 9.4S 60.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
====================

rough sea and locally gale force winds of 35 knots and high seas in the southern semi-circle, within a 50 NM radius from the center extending up to 200 NM from the center in southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 9.5S 58.4E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 9.4S 56.6E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 9.0S 54.3E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
====================

Last available animated infrared pictures depict a burst of deep convection. System keeps on deepening. The low level circulation center is difficult to locate accurately. The wind field structure should remain assymetric with stronger winds in the southern semi-circle, due to the gradient effect with the subtropical strengthening anticyclone south of the system.

In the upper levels, the positive impact of the diminishing upper vertical wind shear within the next 36 hours, should be outbalanced by the weakening of the poleward upper divergence forecast within the next 18-24 hours... So, environmental conditions are rather favourable for the next 18-24 hours and system should keep on deepening while tracking globally westward on the north face of the subtropical high pressure belt.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (T1203)
3:00 AM JST June 6 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Mawar (980 hPa) located at 29.3N 136.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 25 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
250 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
160 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 36.2N 148.0E - Extratropical Low East of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #43
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (T1203)
21:00 PM JST June 5 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Mawar (980 hPa) located at 28.1N 133.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
220 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
130 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 33.9N 144.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) southeast of Kanto
48 HRS: 39.5N 151.0E - Extratropical Low East of Hokkaido
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 14-20112012
16:00 PM RET June 5 2012
========================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 14 (1000 hPa) located at 9.4S 61.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.1/2.1/D0.5/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 9.7S 59.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 9.5S 57.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 8.9S 54.7E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
====================

Strong winds are expected to increase in the southern semi-circle due to gradient effect, during the trade wind surge. The system has a shear pattern, but the center has become closer from convection. Vertical wind shear is expected to weaken during the next two days, so the system may deepen while tracking generally westward on the northern edge of the subtropical ridge.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #42
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (T1203)
18:00 PM JST June 5 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 9:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Mawar (975 hPa) located at 27.6N 131.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
220 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
130 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 32.7N 142.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Southeast of Hachijo-jima
45 HRS: 38.4N 149.3E - Extratropical Low East of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Perturbation Tropicale 14-20112012
10:00 AM RET June 5 2012
========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 14 (1003 hPa) located at 9.0S 62.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 9.3S 60.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 9.4S 58.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 9.0S 55.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 8.4S 53.1E - 20 knots (Low Pressure Area)

Additional Information
====================

Strong winds are expected to increase in the southern semi-circle due to gradient effect, during the trade wind surge. Vertical wind shear is forecast to weaken during the next two days.. so system may deepen as is tracks generally westward.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (T1203)
15:00 PM JST June 5 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Mawar (975 hPa) located at 27.1N 131.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
220 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
130 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 31.9N 141.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Southeast of Hachijo-jima
48 HRS: 38.4N 149.3E - Extratropical Low East of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #40
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
12:00 PM JST June 5 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (970 hPa) located at 26.5N 130.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
65 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
280 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
130 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 31.0N 139.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South southwest of Hachijo-jima
45 HRS: 37.0N 148.3E - Extratropical Low East of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #17
TYPHOON AMBO (MAWAR) FINAL
5:00 AM PhST June 5 2012
=======================================

Typhoon "AMBO" continues to move away from the country in a northeast direction

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ambo (Mawar) was located at 24.8N 128.8E or 740 km northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gust of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 12 knots

Additional Information
=======================

With this development, this is the final bulletin on this weather disturbance.

However, this disturbance will continue to enhance the southwest monsoon and bring occasional rains over Luzon particularly over the western section.

Meanwhile, an Low Pressure Area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 450 km east of Mindanao 7.0N 130.0E.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
9:00 AM JST June 5 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (970 hPa) located at 26.0N 130.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
65 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
================
280 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
130 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 30.4N 138.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South southwest of Hachijo-jima
48 HRS: 37.0N 148.3E - Extratropical Low East of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #38
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
6:00 AM JST June 5 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (965 hPa) located at 25.3N 129.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
65 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
280 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
130 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 29.9N 136.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Japan
45 HRS: 34.6N 145.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) East of Japan
69 HRS: 40.7N 151.8E - Extratropical Low East of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
3:00 AM JST June 5 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (965 hPa) located at 24.5N 128.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
280 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
130 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 29.1N 135.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Japan
48 HRS: 34.6N 145.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) East of Japan
72 HRS: 40.7N 151.8E - Extratropical Low East of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #16
TYPHOON AMBO (MAWAR)
11:00 PM PhST June 4 2012
=======================================

Typhoon "AMBO" continues to move away from the country in a northeast direction

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Ambo (Mawar) was located at 23.6°N 128.0°E or 630 km northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gust of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 10 knots

Additional Information
=======================

Typhoon "AMBO" " is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring rains over central and southern Luzon and Visayas especially over the western section which may trigger flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 20-30 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards Luzon and the western seaboard of Visayas due to the combined effects of Typhoon "AMBO" and the Southwest Monsoon.

Meanwhile, an Active Low Pressure Area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 450 km east of Mindanao 7.0°N, 130.0°E.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
21:00 PM JST June 4 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (960 hPa) located at 23.2N 127.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
325 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 27.4N 132.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Japan
48 HRS: 31.9N 141.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Southeast of Kanto
72 HRS: 37.6N 150.3E - Extratropical Low East of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #34
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
18:00 PM JST June 4 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (960 hPa) located at 23.0N 127.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
325 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 27.0N 131.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Northwest of Minami Daito
45 HRS: 30.1N 137.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan
69 HRS: 34.3N 146.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) East of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
15:00 PM JST June 4 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (960 hPa) located at 22.6N 126.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
325 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 26.5N 130.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Northwest of Minami Daito
48 HRS: 30.1N 137.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan
72 HRS: 34.3N 146.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) East of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
12:00 PM JST June 4 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (960 hPa) located at 22.1N 126.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
280 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 25.9N 130.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) East southeast of Naha
45 HRS: 29.2N 135.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan
69 HRS: 32.7N 143.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) East of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #15
TYPHOON AMBO (MAWAR)
11:00 AM PhST June 4 2012
=======================================

Typhoon "AMBO" has maintained its strength and continues to move away from the country

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ambo (Mawar) was located at 21.7°N 126.4°E or 400 km east northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gust of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots

Additional Information
=======================

Typhoon "AMBO" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over Southern Luzon and Visayas especially the western section which may trigger flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 20-30 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards Luzon and the western seaboard of Visayas due to the combined effects of Typhoon "AMBO" and the southwest monsoon.

Meanwhile, an Active Low Pressure Area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 810 km east of southern Mindanao 6.5°N, 133.5°E.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
9:00 AM JST June 4 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (960 hPa) located at 21.6N 126.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
280 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 25.3N 129.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) East southeast of Naha
48 HRS: 29.2N 135.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan
72 HRS: 32.7N 143.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) East of Japan

Additional Information
=======================

Typhoon will move north northeast for the next 12 hours then move gradually east northeast.

Typhoon will move at same speed for next 24 hours then accelerate

Typhoon will keep present intensity for next 24 hours

Final initial Dvorak number will be 4.5 after 24 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #14
TYPHOON AMBO (MAWAR)
5:00 AM PhST June 4 2012
=======================================

Typhoon "AMBO" has intensified and no longer poses any threat to the country

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ambo (Mawar) was located at 21.1°N 126.0°E or 380 km east of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gust of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots

Additional Information
=======================

Typhoon "AMBO" " is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over Southern Luzon and Visayas especially the western section which may trigger flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 20-30 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards Luzon and the western seaboard of Visayas due to the combined effects of Typhoon "AMBO" and the southwest monsoon.

Meanwhile, an Active Low Pressure Area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 870 km East of southern Mindanao 6.0°N, 134.0°E.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
6:00 AM JST June 4 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (960 hPa) located at 21.3N 125.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
280 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 24.9N 128.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South southeast of Naha
45 HRS: 28.3N 133.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Japan
69 HRS: 30.9N 140.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
3:00 AM JST June 4 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (960 hPa) located at 20.9N 125.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
280 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 24.3N 128.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South southeast of Naha
48 HRS: 28.3N 133.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Japan
72 HRS: 30.9N 140.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #13
TYPHOON AMBO (MAWAR)
11:00 PM PhST June 3 2012
=======================================

Typhoon "AMBO" has maintained its strength as it continues to move away from the country

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Ambo (Mawar) was located at 20.2°N 125.8°E or 430 km east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gust of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 7 knots

Additional Information
=======================

Typhoon "AMBO" " is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring rains over southern Luzon and Visayas especially the western section which may trigger flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 20-30 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards Luzon and the western seaboard of Visayas due to the combined effects of Typhoon "AMBO" and the southwest monsoon.

Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 980 km east of southern Mindanao 5.0°N 135.0°E.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TYPHOON MAWAR (T1203)
21:00 PM JST June 3 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Mawar (970 hPa) located at 19.7N 125.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 23.3N 127.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Okinawa
48 HRS: 27.3N 132.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Minami daito waters
72 HRS: 30.3N 138.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (T1203)
18:00 PM JST June 3 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 9:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Mawar (980 hPa) located at 19.7N 125.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 22.7N 127.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Okinawa
45 HRS: 26.0N 130.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Minami daito waters
69 HRS: 29.4N 136.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #12
TYPHOON AMBO (MAWAR)
5:00 PM PhST June 3 2012
=======================================

Typhoon "AMBO" continues to move north northeast away from the country

At 4:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Ambo (Mawar) was located at 19.6°N 125.5°E or 390 km east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gust of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 7 knots

Additional Information
=======================

All Public Storm Warning Signals are now lowered

Typhoon "AMBO" is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over Luzon and Visayas especially the western section which may trigger flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 20-30 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards Luzon and the western seaboard of Visayas due to the combined effects of Typhoon "AMBO" and the southwest monsoon.

Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 1,190 km east of southern Mindanao (5.0°N 137.0°E)

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (T1203)
15:00 PM JST June 3 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Mawar (980 hPa) located at 19.3N 125.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 22.0N 126.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Okinawa
48 HRS: 26.0N 130.1E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Minami daito waters
72 HRS: 29.4N 136.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (T1203)
12:00 PM JST June 3 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Mawar (980 hPa) located at 18.8N 125.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 21.5N 126.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Okinawa
45 HRS: 25.4N 128.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Okinawa
69 HRS: 29.3N 134.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
TYPHOON AMBO (MAWAR)
11:00 AM PhST June 3 2012
=======================================

"AMBO" has intensified into a typhoon and continues to move in a north northeastward direction

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Ambo (Mawar) was located at 19.0°N 125.1°E or 320 km east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gust of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 7 knots

Signal Warnings
===================

Signal Warning #1

Luzon Region
============
1. Batanes Group of Islands
2. Calayan Islands

Additional Information
=======================

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas, under public storm warning signal #1, are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 20-30 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the typhoon.

Typhoon "Ambo" " is expected to enhance the southwest monsoon that will bring rains over the whole country especially the western section.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of southern Luzon and Visayas and the eastern seaboard of northern and central Luzon due to the combined effect of Typhoon "Ambo" and the southwest monsoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MAWAR (T1203)
9:00 AM JST June 3 2012
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Mawar (980 hPa) located at 18.6N 124.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================

24 HRS: 21.2N 125.8E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Okinawa
48 HRS: 25.4N 128.7E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South of Okinawa
72 HRS: 29.3N 134.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South of Japan

Additional Information
=====================

Severe tropical storm will move at same speed for next 24 hours then accelerate

Severe tropical storm will move north northeast for next 48 hours then move northeast

Severe tropical storm will be upgraded to typhoon within 12 hours

Severe tropical storm will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be 4.5 after 24 hours
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45614

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