Tropical Depression

By: HadesGodWyvern , 2:40 AM GMT on March 01, 2012

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Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

March
T201201.Pakhar - 998 hPa

April
Tropical Depression "90C" - 1004 hPa
Tropical Depression - 1008 hPa


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North Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department


Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================


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Southeastern Pacific Ocean
=======================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Nadi Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

March
14F.NONAME - 1005 hPa
15F.NONAME - 1005 hPa
16F.NONAME - 1003 hPa
17F.NONAME - 999 hPa
18F.NONAME - 1004 hPa
19F.Daphne - 985 hPa

April
20F.NONAME - 1009 hPa

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Southwestern Pacific Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Bureau of Meteorology

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

March
17U.NONAME - 991 hPa


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Southeastern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Bureau of Meteorology

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
---------------------------------------------

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

March
15U.Koji - 993 hPa (moved west of 90E)
16U.LUA - 932 hPa

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Southwestern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Mauritius Meteorological Services
Seychelles Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

March
11R.Irina - 979 hPa
12R.NONAME - 996 hPa
13R.Joni - 980 hPa (Entered from TCWC Perth - TC Koji)


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Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #7
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
6:00 PM WST March 15 2012
===========================

At 5:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Two (970 hPa) located at 15.7S 113.4E or 670 km north northwest of Karratha 750 km northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Lua has moved slowly over the last few hours but will accelerate towards the east Pilbara coast during Friday. Lua is expected to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone tonight and remain severe through to landfall.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas overnight, but gales are expected to develop between Mardie and Bidyadanga by early Saturday. Very destructive winds with wind gusts in excess of 170 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal areas near the centre of the cyclone during Saturday. Gales are expected to extend to coastal areas between Cape Leveque and Bidayadanga during Saturday and then to inland eastern Pilbara areas later on Saturday.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara. During Saturday and Sunday areas of heavy rain are likely in the east Gascoyne and northern Goldfields.

Heavy surf conditions are expected along the west Kimberley coast during Friday and Saturday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Broome and Mardie including Karratha, Dampier, Roebourne, Wickham, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Pardoo, Wallal, Bidyadanga and Broome need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Remaining communities between Bidyadanga and Cape Leveque and in the inland eastern Pilbara should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Bidyadanga including Broome, and the eastern inland Pilbara including Newman and Telfer.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 13:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
3:00 PM WST March 15 2012
===========================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Two (970 hPa) located at 15.7S 113.4E or 670 km north northwest of Karratha 750 km northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 2 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Lua has moved slowly over the last few hours but should accelerate to the southeast during Friday and early morning Saturday, towards the east Pilbara coast. Lua is expected to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone tonight and remain severe through to landfall.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas today or overnight, but gales are expected to develop during Friday or early Saturday between Mardie and Bidyadanga as the cyclone approaches the coast . Very destructive winds with wind gusts in excess of 170 kilometres per hour are expected to develop in coastal areas near the centre of the cyclone during Saturday. Gales are expected to extend to coastal areas between Cape Leveque and Bidayadanga during Saturday and then to inland eastern Pilbara areas later on Saturday.

Heavy rainfall is expected in coastal areas of the east Pilbara and west Kimberley during Thursday and Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Bidyadanga including Broome, and the eastern inland Pilbara including Newman and Telfer.

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 16.1S 114.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 17.0S 116.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 20.4S 120.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 26.7S 120.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Position is based on visible imagery and some recent microwave passes.

Dvorak analysis Visible imagery yielded curved band wrap of around 0.8-0.9 giving a DT of 3.5. MET is 4.0 based on a trend of D, PAT is 4.0 and FT is set to 4.0. Final intensity estimate is set to 60 knots 10-min mean, with ASCAT showing some 50 knot winds to the north of the system.

The current moderate easterly shear is expected to reduce in the next 24 hours and become very favorable for development together with strong upper divergence as an upper trough approaches. This will be followed by unfavorable shear as upper northwesterlies increase over the system but this may not occur in time to weaken the cyclone prior to landfall on Saturday.

Movement has been very slow in the last few hours as the steering influence of the upper ridge to the southwest is balanced by the vigorous northwesterly monsoonal flow. By tonight the system should begin to move to the southeast and a faster southeasterly track is forecast for Friday as the ridge weakens and the monsoonal flow dominates. There is very good general agreement across model guidance for this scenario with a coastal crossing on Saturday, although the timing of this varies somewhat.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 10:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Severe Weather Warning
=======================================

9:30 AM CST, TROPICAL LOW (1000 hPa) was located over land near 16.6S 132.7E about 182 km east of Victoria River Downs and 245 km south of Katherine, moving southeast at 26 km/h. Strong and squally northwest monsoonal winds are affecting coastal and inland areas north of the low.

Damaging wind gusts up to 100 km/h are expected with squally monsoonal showers in the Darwin-Daly District, including the Tiwi Islands during today and tonight.

Heavy monsoonal rain currently falling over the Darwin-Daly District, including the Tiwi Islands, and northern Victoria River District may lead to flash flooding. Heavy rainfall may extend into the western Roper-McArthur District on Friday.

A wind gust to 85 km/h was recorded at Darwin Airport this morning.

24 hour rainfall totals to 9am this morning included Douglas River receiving 169 mm, Upper Adelaide River 137 mm and Batchelor 116 mm.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
9:00 AM WST March 15 2012
===========================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Two (973 hPa) located at 15.6S 113.3E or 680 km north northwest of Karratha 770 km northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 2 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
45 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Lua has begun to move slowly in an easterly direction over the last few hours which should continue today, before accelerating to the southeast during Friday and early morning Saturday, towards the east Pilbara coast. Lua is expected to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone tonight and remain severe as it approaches the coast.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas today, but gales are expected to develop during Friday or early Saturday as the cyclone approaches the coast. Destructive to very destructive winds with wind gusts in excess of 150 kilometres per hour are expected to develop in coastal areas near the centre of the cyclone during Saturday.

Heavy rainfall is expected in coastal areas of the east Pilbara and west Kimberley during Thursday and Friday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Mardie and Cape Leveque should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 15.8S 114.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 16.3S 115.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 19.0S 119.7E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
72 HRS: 24.9S 120.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================

Position is based on some very good microwave passes around 2200Z.

Dvorak analysis enhanced infrared imagery yielded curved band wrap of around 0.8 giving a DT of 3.5. MET is 4.0 based on a trend of D, PAT is 4.0 and FT is set to 4.0. SATCON 1800Z is estimating 60-65 knots 10-min mean. Final intensity estimate is set to 55 knots 10-min mean.

The current moderate easterly shear is expected to reduce in the next 24 hours and become very favorable for development together with strong upper divergence as an upper trough approaches. This will be followed by unfavorable shear as upper northwesterlies increase over the system.

Movement has begun to take a easterly direction in the last few hours as the steering influence of the upper ridge to the southwest reduces and is balanced by the vigorous northwesterly monsoonal flow. By tonight the system should begin to move to the southeast and a faster southeasterly track is forecast for Friday as the ridge weakens further and the monsoon intensifies. There is very good general agreement across model guidance for this scenario with a coastal crossing on Saturday, although the timing of this varies somewhat.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Severe Weather Warning
==================================

At 3:30 AM CST, TROPICAL LOW (997 hPa) was located over land near 15.8S 131.5E about 85 km northeast of Victoria River Downs and 175 km south southwest of Katherine, moving east southeast at 27 kilometres per hour. Strong and squally northwest monsoonal winds are affecting island and coastal areas north of the low.

Damaging wind gusts up to 100 km/h are possible with squally monsoonal showers in the Darwin-Daly District, including the Tiwi Islands during today.

Heavy monsoonal rain currently falling over the Darwin-Daly District, including the Tiwi Islands, and northern Victoria River District may lead to flash flooding.

Between 9am yesterday and 4am today, Douglas River recorded 149 mm, Upper Adelaide River 121mm, The Chase in Palmerston 104 mm and Stokes Hill 99 mm.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
3:00 AM WST March 15 2012
===========================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Two (975 hPa) located at 15.6S 113.0E or 700 km northwest of Karratha 790 km northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 2 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
45 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Lua's movement has slowed over the last 6 hours, and it is likely to turn back towards the Pilbara coast during Thursday. Lua is expected to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone during Thursday and remain intense as it approaches the coast.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas during Thursday. Gales are expected to develop during Friday or early Saturday as the cyclone approaches the coast. Destructive to very destructive winds are expected to develop in coastal areas near the centre of the cyclone during Saturday.

Heavy rainfall is expected in coastal areas of the east Pilbara and west Kimberley during Thursday and Friday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Mardie and Cape Leveque should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie, as well as adjacent inland parts

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 15.5S 113.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 15.8S 114.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 18.2S 118.9E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
72 HRS: 23.3S 120.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================

Position is based on microwave passes at 1048Z and 1413Z.

Dvorak analysis on late afternoon visible imagery yielded curved band wrap of 0.8-1.0 giving a DT of 3.5. The low level circulation center is clearly embedded deeply into the overcast. MET is 4.0 based on a trend of Dvorak, PAT is 4.0 and FT is set to 4.0. SATCON 13Z is estimating 55-60 knots 10-min mean. Final intensity estimate is set to 55 knots 10-min mean.

Ocean heat content is very favorable and shear conditions are generally expected to be favorable over the next 48 hours. A period of very favorable shear conditions with strong upper divergence is expected as an upper trough approaches, followed by unfavorable shear as upper northwesterlies increase over the system.

Movement has been to the north with the steering under the influence of an upper ridge to the southwest, but this has started to slow. During Thursday the system should begin to move to the southeast and a faster southeasterly track is forecast for Friday as the ridge weakens and the monsoon intensifies. There is very good general agreement across model guidance for this scenario, although speed of movement varies somewhat.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
9:00 PM WST March 14 2012
===========================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Two (981 hPa) located at 15.7S 113.0E or 690 km northwest of Karratha 780 km northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 5 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
45 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/12 HRS

Although Lua is currently moving north it is likely to turn back towards the Pilbara coast during Thursday. Lua is expected to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone during Thursday and remain intense as it approaches the coast.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas during the remainder of Wednesday or on Thursday. Gales are expected to develop during Friday or early Saturday as the cyclone approaches the coast.

Heavy rainfall is expected in coastal areas of the east Pilbara and west Kimberley during Thursday and Friday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Mardie and Cape Leveque should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie.

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 15.5S 113.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 15.8S 114.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 17.6S 118.3E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
72 HRS: 22.3S 121.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================

Position is based on microwave passes at 0715Z and 1048Z.

Dvorak analysis on late afternoon visible imagery yielded curved band wrap of 0.8-1.0 giving a DT of 3.5. The low level circulation center is clearly embedded deeply into the overcast. MET is 4.0 based on a trend of D, PAT is 3.5 and FT is set to 3.5. SATCON 09Z is estimating 55 knots 10-min mean but was previously at around 50 knots 10-min mean. Final intensity estimate is set to 50 knots 10-min mean.

Ocean heat content is very favorable and shear conditions are generally expected to be favorable over the next 48 hours. A period of very favorable shear conditions with strong upper divergence is expected as an upper trough approaches, followed by unfavorable shear as upper northwesterlies increase
over the system.

Movement has been to the north with the steering under the influence of an upper ridge to the southwest. During Thursday the system should begin to move to the southeast and a faster southeasterly track is forecast for Friday as the ridge weakens and the monsoon intensifies. There is very good general agreement across model guidance for this scenario, although speed of movement varies somewhat.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW 17U
5:00 PM CST March 14 2012
=======================

At 3:30 PM CST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 14.8S 129.0E or 1122 km northeast of Wyndham and 86 km southwest of Port Keats has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southeast at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 15.9S 130.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 17.0S 132.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 17.6S 135.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 17.8S 138.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

The tropical low has been located using a combination of surface observations and radar near the southern coast of the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. The circulation appears to have become near vertical in low to mid-levels, and curved bands are evident on radar north of the low level circulation center. There is limited deep convection near the center, so Dvorak analysis is not possible. Model forecasts are consistent in steering the low towards the southeast, across the VRD and Barkly regions during the next two days. It is no longer expected to develop into a tropical cyclone, but it may continue to deepen overland as an associated monsoonal burst continues over seas to the west.

TC warnings have been cancelled, but Severe Weather Warnings have been issued for land areas for heavy rainfall and damaging winds. Wind gusts to 120 km/h are possible in coastal areas south of Daly River Mouth overnight, associated with rainbands and embedded thunderstorms.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY ONE (16U)
3:00 PM WST March 14 2012
===========================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category One (989 hPa) located at 16.1S 112.6E or 680 km northwest of Karratha 790 km northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
40 NM from the center in the northeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in the southeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in the southwestern quadrant
70 NM from the center in the northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Although Lua is currently moving north, it is likely to take a more southeasterly track towards the east Pilbara coast and intensify during Thursday and Friday.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas during the remainder of Wednesday or Thursday. Gales could develop during Friday morning between Mardie and Port Hedland, extending east to Cape Leveque later on Friday ahead of the cyclone crossing the coast.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 15.4S 112.7E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 15.3S 113.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 16.6S 117.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 20.5S 120.7E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
=======================

Lua remains at category 1 intensity at 45 knots.

Latest Visible imagery has shown improvement in the inner band, with banding 0.6 to 0.9. Shear has increased slightly to 15-20 knots shown on DVORAK as a sharp boundary on the southeast side of the deep convection. Dvorak DT is a strong 3.0 with a PAT of 3.5, and FT/CI =3.0.

Movement has been to the north with the steering under the influence of an upper ridge to the southwest. A slow motion to the north is forecast through 12 to 18 hours then a faster southeasterly track is forecast for the following days towards the east Pilbara coast as the ridge weakens and the monsoon intensifies. There is very good general agreement across model guidance for this scenario, although speed of movement varies from the EC [slow] to JMA [fast] changing the coastal impact time by around 12 hours.

Steady intensification is forecast under the influence of moderate wind shear and strong upper level outflow. A broad area of monsoonal gales is expected to develop north and east of the center during Thursday and continue on Friday. Gales may develop along the Pilbara coast on Friday morning owing to a strong easterly pressure gradient with the ridge to the south.

There is some uncertainty as to how strong Lua will get to prior to landfall. Having a broad and asymmetric wind field from the monsoon burst, and likely ongoing moderate shear, would suggest rapid intensification is less likely, however a severe impact seems the most probable scenario at this range.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #14
TROPICAL LOW 17U
1:48 PM CST March 14 2012
=======================

At 12:30 PM CST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 14.8S 128.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25-30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south southeast at 8 knots.

The tropical low is located on the coast and is expected to move inland. It is no longer expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES are no longer expected between Dundee Beach and Kalumburu.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Dundee Beach and Kalumburu, during today or tonight. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas around the time of highest tides.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and possible flooding of low lying areas in the Darwin-Daly and northern Victoria River Districts and the Kimberley region.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

The Cyclone WARNING from Kalumburu to Dundee Beach has been cancelled.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #13
TROPICAL LOW 17U
10:39 AM CST March 14 2012
=======================

At 9:30 AM CST, Tropical Low (997 hPa) located at 14.4S 128.4E or 120 km west of Port Keats and 190 km east of Kalumburu has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south southeast at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

The tropical low has moved into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. The low may develop into a tropical cyclone this morning before it crosses the coast between Wyndham and the NT/WA Border late morning or early this afternoon.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Dundee Beach and Kalumburu during today.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Dundee Beach and Kalumburu, during today or tonight. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and possible flooding of low lying areas in the Darwin-Daly and northern Victoria River Districts and Kimberley.

The Territory Controller advises residents from Dundee Beach to the NT Border that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

Residents from Dundee Beach to the NT Border are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Kalumburu to Dundee Beach, including Wyndham.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 15.8S 129.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 16.7S 130.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 18.4S 133.7E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 19.5S 136.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

The tropical low has been located using a combination of surface observations and persistence near the coast in the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. The circulation appears to be tilted, with the mid-level center of rotation to the west of the low level circulation center, although the system is moving into an area of decreasing shear. A middle level ridge to the east and approaching middle level trough from the southwest will cause the system to move towards the south southeast but it is now close enough to the coast that the chance of it becoming a cyclone is diminishing.

A band of 30kt winds was evident to the north of the low in the 12:54UTC ASCAT pass. Dvorak analysis DT is undetermined, with MET=2.5. FT was held to 2.5. A central cold cover appears to have developed overnight, impending development.

The low is expected to slowly develop over the next six hours by which time it is likely to have crossed the coast and will weaken into a rain depression.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin will be issued at 4:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY ONE (16U)
9:00 AM WST March 14 2012
===========================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category One (993 hPa) located at 16.9S 112.7E or 610 km northwest of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
40 NM from the center in the northeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in the southeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in the southwestern quadrant
70 NM from the center in the northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Although Lua is currently moving north northwest, it is likely to take a more southeasterly track towards the east Pilbara coast and intensify during Thursday and Friday.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas during today or Thursday, however gales could develop during Friday well ahead of the cyclone crossing the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for coastal areas from Mardie to Cape Leveque.

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 16.1S 112.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.9S 112.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.0S 116.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 20.7S 120.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
=======================

Lua remains at category 1 intensity at 40 knots. Dvorak DT is around 2.5 with a PAT of 2.5, so FT=2.5 but CI held at 3.0.

It has been difficult to assign wrap on the last few IR images but applying Dvorak techniques to latest microwave images would suggest a wrap of around 0.6. ASCAT also indicates gales about the center.

Movement has been to the north northwest with the steering under the influence of an upper ridge to the southwest. A slow motion to the north is forecast through 12 to 18 hours then a faster southeasterly track is forecast for the following days towards the east Pilbara coast as the ridge weakens and the monsoon intensifies. There is general agreement across model guidance for this scenario, although speed of movement varies from the EC [slow] to GFS [fast] changing the coastal impact time by around 12 hours.

Steady intensification is forecast under the influence of low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Numerical weather prediction models indicate a broad system which would indicate rapid intensification is less likely. A broad area of monsoonal gales is expected to develop north and east of the center by Thursday and continue on Friday.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #12
TROPICAL LOW 17U
7:49 AM CST March 14 2012
=======================

At 6:30 AM CST, Tropical Low (997 hPa) located at 14.0S 128.3E or 130 km west of Port Keats and 180 km east of Kalumburu has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south southeast at 8 knots.

The tropical low is taking a south to southeasterly track into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. The low may develop into a tropical cyclone this morning and is likely to cross the coast between Port Keats and the NT/WA border later today.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may develop between Dundee Beach and Kalumburu during today.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Dundee Beach and Kalumburu, during today or tonight. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and possible flooding of low lying areas in the Darwin-Daly District.

The Territory Controller advises residents from Dundee Beach to the NT Border that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

Residents from Dundee Beach to the NT Border are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between the WA/NT Border and Kalumburu, including Wyndham, should start taking precautions.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Kalumburu to Dundee Beach. Beach, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, has been cancelled.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #11
TROPICAL LOW 17U
5:15 AM CST March 14 2012
=======================

At 3:30 AM CST, Tropical Low (997 hPa) located at 13.5S 128.2E or 160 km west northwest of Port Keats and 190 km east northeast of Kalumburu has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

The tropical low appears to be taking a south to southeasterly track into the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf. The low may develop into a tropical cyclone this morning and is likely to cross the coast between Port Keats and the NT/WA border later today or tonight.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop between Dundee Beach and Kalumburu during today. GALES are no longer expected to develop between Cape Hotham and Dundee Beach.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Dundee Beach and Kalumburu, during today or tonight. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and possible flooding of low lying areas in the Darwin-Daly District.

The Territory Controller advises residents from Dundee to the NT Border that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

Residents are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
================================

A Cyclone WARNING now continues for coastal and island communities from Kalumburu to Dundee Beach. The Cyclone WARNING from Cape Hotham to Dundee Beach, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
======================

12 HRS: 14.4S 129.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 15.7S 129.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 18.0S 132.4E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 20.1S 134.1E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
================

The tropical low has been located using a combination of surface observations, radar and a recent scatterometer pass, in the southern Timor Sea, southwest of Darwin. The circulation appears to be tilted by vertical wind shear, with the mid-level center of rotation to the west of the low level circulation center, although the system is moving into an area of decreasing shear.

A band of 30 knots winds was evident to the north of the low in the 12:54UTC ASCAT pass.

Dvorak analysis DT is undetermined, with MET=PT=2.5. FT was held to 2.5. A central cold cover appears to have developed, impeding development. The development rate has been slow but the low is moving under the upper ridge axis, decreasing the deep layer shear. Model track forecasts are consistent, indicating movement towards the southeast, reaching the southwest Top End coast later today.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin will be issued at 22:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY ONE (16U)
3:00 AM WST March 14 2012
===========================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category One (993 hPa) located at 17.8S 113.6E or 470 km northwest of Karratha and 465 km north of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
40 NM from the center in the northeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in the southeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in the southwestern quadrant
30 NM from the center in the northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 17.0S 113.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 16.6S 113.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.3S 115.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 20.2S 119.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=================

Tropical Cyclone Lua lies well northwest of Karratha.

Dvorak DT is around 2.5 with a PAT of 2.0, the FT is constrained to 3.0, thus CI of 3.0. ASCAT imagery at 1433UTC showed the marginal gales in the southern quadrants and hence max winds have been set at 35 knots [10 min].

Movement has been to the west northwest with the steering under the influence of an upper ridge to the southwest. A slow motion to the north is forecast through 24 hours then a faster southeasterly track is forecast for the following days towards the east Pilbara coast as the ridge weakens and the monsoon intensifies. There is general agreement across model guidance for this scenario.

Steady intensification is forecast under the influence of low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. Numerical weather prediction models indicate a broad system which would indicate rapid intensification is less likely. A broad area of monsoonal gales is expected to develop north of the center by Thursday.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #9
TROPICAL LOW 17U
10:57 PM CST March 13 2012
=======================

At 9:30 PM CST, Tropical Low (997 hPa) located at 12.9S 128.0E or 315 km west of Darwin and 215 km northwest of Port Keats has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

The tropical low appears to be taking a slow southerly track but is expected to curve southeast towards the western Top End coast early Wednesday. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday morning and is likely to cross the southwest coast of the Top End on Wednesday night.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop between Cape Hotham and Kalumburu, including the Tiwi Islands, on Wednesday morning. Winds may increase further with gusts to 120 km/h in coastal areas between Cape Hotham and Kalumburu, including Darwin and the rural area, during Wednesday afternoon and evening. GALES with gusts to 100 km/hr may extend further inland to Batchelor, Adelaide River and Daly River later on Wednesday or early Thursday.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Hotham and Wyndham, including the Tiwi Islands during Wednesday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and possible flooding of low lying areas in the Darwin-Daly District during Wednesday.

The Territory Controller advises residents from Cape Hotham to the NT Border, including the Tiwi Islands, Batchelor, Adelaide River and Daly River, that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Hotham to Kalumburu, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, and inland to Batchelor, Adelaide River and Daly River.

Forecast and Intensity
==============

12 HRS: 13.6S 128.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 14.5S 129.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.3S 132.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 17.4S 134.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
================

The tropical low has been located using surface observations and a recent scatterometer pass, in the Timor Sea, southwest of Darwin. A mid-level center of rotation is evident from satellite animations just to the west of the low level circulation center, indicating that the circulation is tilted by vertical wind shear. Convective structure is improving with deep convection developing close to the low level circulation center and peripheral banding to the east, suggesting that the system is moving into an area of decreasing shear. A band of 25 to 30kt winds was evident to the north of the low's center in the 00:25UTC ASCAT pass. This vigorous monsoonal flow is expected to interact with the low tonight, possibly leading to its intensification.

Dvorak analysis yields an unrepresentative DT=3.0 based on a shear pattern, with MET=PT=2.5. FT was held to 2.5, based on the PT, due to the improving structure and central convection. The development rate has been slow but the low is moving under the upper ridge axis, decreasing the deep layer shear. A standard development is forecast in a favourable environment with a divergent upper pattern. Model track forecasts are consistent, indicating an acceleration towards the southeast, reaching the southwest Top End coast later on Wednesday.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin will be issued at 16:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY ONE (16U)
9:00 PM WST March 13 2012
===========================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category One (992 hPa) located at 18.5S 114.6E or 340 km northwest of Karratha and 385 km north of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Gale Force Winds
=============
40 NM from the center in the northeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in the southeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in the southwestern quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 17.7S 114.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 17.1S 114.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.9S 115.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 19.9S 119.0E - 80 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=================

Tropical Cyclone Lua lies well north of the west Pilbara coast.

Dvorak DT is hovering around 3.0 with a CI of 3.0m supported by MET. ASCAT imagery from earlier in the day showed marginal gales in the SE quadrant and hence max winds have been set at 35 knots [10 min].

Movement is very slight with the steering balanced between an upper ridge to the southwest and strengthening monsoonal northwesterlies to the north. A slow motion to the north is forecast through 24 hours then a faster southeasterly track is forecast for the following days towards the east Pilbara coast as the ridge weakens and the monsoon intensifies. There is general agreement across model guidance for this scenario.

Steady intensification is forecast under the influence of low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, although sea surface temperatures may cool owing to upwelling with the slow motion. numerical weather prediction models indicate a broad system which would indicate rapid intensification is less likely. A broad area of monsoonal gales is expected to develop north of the center by Thursday.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
TROPICAL LOW 17U
7:58 PM CST March 13 2012
=======================

At 6:30 PM CST, Tropical Low (998 hPa) located at 12.7S 128.0E or 315 km west of Darwin and 235 km northwest of Port Keats has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

The tropical low has slowed and appears to be taking a southerly track but is expected to slowly curve southeast towards the western Top End coast. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone early on Wednesday morning and is likely to cross the west coast of the Top End on Wednesday night.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between Cape Hotham and Kalumburu, including the Tiwi Islands, early Wednesday morning. Winds may increase further with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour in coastal areas between Cape Hotham and Kalumburu, including Darwin and the rural area, during Wednesday afternoon and evening. GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may extend further inland to Batchelor, Adelaide River and Daly River later on Wednesday or early Thursday.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Hotham and Wyndham, including the Tiwi Islands during Wednesday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and possible flooding of low lying areas in the Darwin-Daly District during Wednesday.

The Territory Controller advises residents from Cape Hotham to the NT Border, including the Tiwi Islands, Batchelor, Adelaide River and Daly River, that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal communities between the WA/NT Border and Kalumburu, including Wyndham, should start taking precautions.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Hotham to Kalumburu, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, and inland to Batchelor, Adelaide River and Daly River.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #7
TROPICAL LOW 17U
4:49 PM CST March 13 2012
=======================

At 3:30 PM CST, Tropical Low (998 hPa) located at 12.5S 128.0E or 315 km west of Darwin and 250 km northwest of Port Keats has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

The tropical low has slowed and appears to be turning southeast towards the Top End coast. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone early on Wednesday morning and is likely to cross the west coast of the Top End later on Wednesday.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between Cape Hotham and Port Keats, including the Tiwi Islands, early Wednesday morning. Winds may increase further with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour in coastal areas between Cape Hotham and Port Keats, including Darwin and the rural area, during Wednesday afternoon and evening. GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may extend further inland to Batchelor, Adelaide River and Daly River later on Wednesday or early Thursday. GALES may also develop between Port Keats and Kalumburu in Western Australia if the developing cyclone takes a more southerly track.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Hotham and Port Keats, including the Tiwi Islands during Wednesday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and possible flooding of low lying areas in the Darwin-Daly District during Wednesday.

The Territory Controller advises residents from Cape Hotham to the NT Border, including the Tiwi Islands, Batchelor, Adelaide River and Daly River, that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Area are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================

A Cyclone WARNING continues for coastal and island communities from Cape Hotham to Kalumburu, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, and inland to Batchelor, Adelaide River and Daly River.

Forecast and Intensity
==============

12 HRS: 12.9S 128.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 13.7S 129.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 15.3S 131.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 16.9S 133.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
================

The tropical low has been located using surface observations and a scatterometer pass, in the Timor Sea, west of Darwin. A mid-level center of rotation is evident from satellite animations about 90nm to the WSW of the low level circulation center, indicating that the circulation is tilted by vertical wind shear. Convective structure has improved with a comma-shaped cloud pattern and peripheral banding. A band of 25kt winds is evident to the north of the low's center in the 00:25UTC ASCAT pass.

Dvorak analysis yields DT=2.0 based on a shear pattern, with MET=2.5. FT was held to 2.0 due to the strongly sheared structure. The development rate has been slow but the low is moving under the upper ridge axis, decreasing the deep layer shear. A standard development is forecast in a favorable environment with a divergent upper pattern and a low-level monsoonal wind surge expected to interact with the low tonight. Model track forecasts are consistent, indicating an acceleration towards the southeast, reaching the southwest Top End coast later on Wednesday.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin will be issued at 10:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY ONE (16U)
3:00 PM WST March 13 2012
===========================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category One (993 hPa) located at 18.5S 115.0E or 315 km northwest of Karratha and 430 km west northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as nearly stationary.

Gale Force Winds
=============
40 NM from the center in the northeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in the southeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in the southwestern quadrant
30 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 18.0S 114.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 17.2S 114.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.2S 114.8E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 18.9S 117.6E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=================

Tropical Cyclone Lua has formed off the Pilbara coast. The system intensified overnight with very deep convection persisting near the low level center during the day. Curvature has improved in an environment of low vertical wind shear.

Dvorak DT has hovered around 2.5 to 3.0 during the morning with a CI of 3.0 supported by MET. Recent ASCAT imagery showed marginal gales in the SE quadrant and hence max winds have been set at 35 knots [10 min].

Movement is very slight with the steering balanced between an upper ridge to the southwest and strengthening monsoonal northwesterlies to the north. A slow motion to the north is forecast through 48 hours then a southeasterly track is forecast for the following days towards the east Pilbara coast as the ridge weakens and the monsoon intensifies. There is general agreement across model guidance for this scenario.

Steady intensification is forecast under the influence of low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, although sea surface temperatures may cool owing to upwelling with the slow motion. Numerical weather prediction models indicate a broad system which would indicate rapid intensification is less likely. A broad area of monsoonal gales is expected to develop north of the center by Thursday.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #6
TROPICAL LOW 17U
1:55 PM CST March 13 2012
=======================

At 12:30 PM CST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 12.3S 128.0E or 315 km west of Darwin and 265 km northwest of Port Keats has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

The tropical low has slowed and appears to be turning southeast towards the Top End coast. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone early on Wednesday morning and is likely to cross the west coast of the Top End later on Wednesday.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between Cape Hotham and Port Keats, including the Tiwi Islands, early Wednesday morning. Winds may increase further with gusts to 120 kilometres per hour in coastal areas between Cape Hotham and Port Keats, including Darwin and the rural area, during Wednesday afternoon and evening. GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour may extend further inland to Batchelor, Adelaide River and Daly River later on Wednesday or early Thursday. GALES may also develop between Port Keats and Kalumburu in Western Australia if the developing cyclone takes a more southerly track.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Hotham and Port Keats, including the Tiwi Islands during Wednesday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and possible flooding of low lying areas in the Darwin-Daly District during Wednesday.

The Territory Controller advises residents from Cape Hotham to the NT Border, including the Tiwi Islands, that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

The Territory Controller advises residents of Darwin and Rural Area that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at present. Communities between Kalumburu and NT Border should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities from Cape Hotham to Kalumburu, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands, and inland to include Batchelor, Adelaide River and Daly River .

The next tropical cyclone advice from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW 16U
9:00 AM WST March 13 2012
===========================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (996 hPa) located at 18.7S 115.2E or 285 km northwest of Karratha and 400 km west northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as nearly stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 18.4S 115.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 17.3S 115.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.0S 115.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 18.4S 117.9E - 80 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
=================

The low has intensified in the past 24 hours with very deep convection about the low level center and improving curvature under light vertical wind shear. Strong easterlies to the south of the low level center off the Pilbara coast have been enhanced overnight although these may ease slightly during today. Dvorak CI held to 2.5 and is supported by MET, although current DT=3.0 based on 0.6 curved band wrap on recent visible imagery, suggesting cyclone intensity is imminent.

Movement is very slight with the steering balanced between an upper ridge to the southwest and strengthening monsoonal northwesterlies to the north. A slow motion to the north is forecast through 48 hours then a southeasterly track is forecast for the following days towards the Pilbara coast as the ridge weakens and the monsoon intensifies.

Steady intensification is forecast under the influence of low wind shear and warm sea surface temperature, although sea surface temperature may cool owing to upwelling with the slow motion. numerical weather prediction show a broad system which would indicate rapid intensification is less likely. A broad area of monsoonal gales is expected to develop north of the center by Thursday.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Low 16U from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
TROPICAL LOW 17U
10:57 AM CST March 13 2012
=======================

At 9:30 AM CST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 12.0S 127.8E or 340 km west of Darwin and 305 km northwest of Port Keats has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

The tropical low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday morning as it turns towards the southeast and moves closer to the coast. It is likely to cross the west coast of the Top End later on Wednesday.

GALES with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are expected to develop between Cape Hotham and Port Keats early Wednesday morning. Gales may develop between Port Keats and Kalumburu in Western Australia if the developing cyclone continues on its southerly track.

Tides will be HIGHER THAN NORMAL between Cape Hotham and Port Keats, including the Tiwi Islands during Wednesday. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING of low-lying coastal areas.

HEAVY RAIN is expected to cause significant stream rises and possible flooding of low lying areas in the Darwin-Daly District during Wednesday.

The Territory Controller advises residents from Cape Hotham to the NT Border, including the Tiwi Islands, that now is the time to make final preparations to your home shelter or identify which public emergency shelter to use.

The Territory Controller advises residents of Darwin and Rural Area that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should decide which public emergency shelter to use. You should now have your emergency kit complete and ready. DO NOT PROCEED TO PUBLIC EMERGENCY SHELTERS UNTIL ADVISED TO DO SO.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities from Cape Hotham to Kalumburu, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

Forecast and Intensity
==============

12 HRS: 12.4S 128.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 12.9S 129.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 14.6S 131.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 15.9S 134.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
================

The tropical low has slowed and appears to be drifting slowly toward the south in the Timor Sea west of the Tiwi Islands. Position fix remains poor, based on infrared animation, microwave and peripheral radar and surface observations. The structure has improved with a weakly curved band evident in the western sectors. Dvorak analysis yields FT=2.0 based on MET and PAT. Development rate has been slow under the influence of easterly vertical wind shear north of the subtropical ridge. The environment appears to be favorable for continuing development at the standard rate with a divergent upper pattern and a low-level monsoonal wind surge evident in the Banda Sea. Model track forecasts are consistent, indicating an acceleration towards the southeast later today, reaching the coast later on Wednesday.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #4
TROPICAL LOW 17U
4:44 AM CST March 13 2012
=======================

At 3:30 AM CST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 11.8S 127.6E or 260 km west of Cape Fourcroy and 365 km west of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop as early as Wednesday morning.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Areas are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal and island communities from Cape Hotham to Kalumburu, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

Forecast and Intensity
==============

12 HRS: 12.3S 127.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 13.1S 128.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 14.9S 129.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 17.3S 131.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
================

The tropical low has slowed but continues to move steadily towards the southwest, west of the Tiwi Islands. Position fix is poor, based on satellite animation and peripheral radar and surface observations. The structure is poor however some deep convection has developed in the last 6 hours. Dvorak analysis yields FT=2.0 based on a curved band pattern. The low level circulation center has been difficult to locate and is thought to be close to the eastern edge of the cloud mass. The development rate has been slow under the influence of easterly vertical wind shear north of the subtropical ridge. The environment becomes favorable for continuing development at the standard rate as the low moves closer to the ridge axis, with a divergent upper pattern and a low-level monsoonal wind surge from the west during Tuesday. Model track forecasts are consistent, indicating a slowing and sharp turn towards the southeast during Tuesday with movement towards the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE, FORMER JONI (13-20112012)
16:00 PM RET March 12 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Joni (989 hPa) located at 29.2S 82.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 17 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==========
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 170 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 210 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
105 NM radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 200 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 255 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 30.9S 84.6E - 35 knots (Depression Extratropicale)
24 HRS: 30.6S 86.0E - 30 knots (Depression Extratropicale)
48 HRS: 31.5S 85.0E - Depression se Comblant
72 HRS: 35.7S 86.1E - se Dissipant

Additional Information
======================

The system, still extratropical, show a low level vortex avoid from deep convection and associated with a small frontal boundary in its northeast quadrant. Max winds are extrapolated from ASCAT pass of 0407 AM UTC.

Tomorrow and Wednesday, the system should slow down as high pressures should rebuilt temporarily in its south. Thursday, the system should resume an accelerating southwards track.

On this track, ex-Koji-Joni should continue to generate gale force winds until tomorrow morning. After that, the system is expected to rapidly fill-up.

This is the final advisory on this system
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
TROPICAL LOW 17U
10:53 PM CST March 12 2012
=======================

At 9:30 PM CST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 11.3S 128.2E or 205 km west northwest of Cape Fourcroy and 315 km west northwest of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24 HRS

There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop as early as Wednesday morning.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Areas are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal and island communities from Cape Hotham to Kalumburu, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

Forecast and Intensity
==============

12 HRS: 11.5S 127.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 12.3S 128.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 14.4S 129.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 16.6S 131.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
================

The tropical low has slowed but continues to steadily towards the southwest, west of the Tiwi Islands. Position fix is poor, based on satellite animation and peripheral radar and surface observations. The structure is poor with the deep convection sheared to the southwest indicative of a sheared environment. Dvorak analysis yields FT=1.5 based on a shear pattern and cloud-band curvature. The low level circulation center has been difficult to locate and is thought to be close to the eastern edge of the cloud mass. The development rate has been slow under the influence of easterly vertical wind shear north of the subtropical ridge. The environment becomes favorable for continuing development at the standard rate as the low moves closer to the ridge axis, with a divergent upper pattern and a low-level monsoonal wind surge from the west during Tuesday. Model track forecasts are consistent, indicating a slowing and sharp turn towards the southeast during Tuesday with movement towards the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
TROPICAL LOW 17U
4:49 PM CST March 12 2012
=======================

At 3:30 PM CST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 11.0S 128.5E or 185 km west northwest of Cape Fourcroy and 305 km west northwest of Darwin has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop as early as Wednesday morning.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Areas are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal and island communities from Cape Hotham to Kalumburu, including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands.

The next tropical cyclone advice from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE, FORMER JONI (13-20112012)
10:00 AM RET March 12 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Extratropical Low, Former Joni (987 hPa) located at 27.7S 81.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==========
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 170 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 210 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
105 NM radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 200 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 255 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 30.0S 83.0E - 40 knots (Depression Extratropicale)
24 HRS: 30.7S 85.1E - 35 knots (Depression Extratropicale)
48 HRS: 30.7S 85.7E - Depression se Comblant
72 HRS: 34.7S 85.8E - Depression se Comblant

Additional Information
======================

ASCAT data from last night and this morning along with AMSU-A brightness temperature cross profiles show that Koji-Joni is now an extratropical system. Max winds is calibrated according to latest ASCAT pass of 0407 AM UTC.

Until tomorrow morning, Ex-Koji-Joni should go on tracking south southeastward under the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge in its east. After that and until Wednesday, the system should slow down as high pressures should rebuilt temporarily in its south. Thursday, the system should resume an accelerating southwards track.

On this track, Ex-Koji-Joni should continue to generate gale force winds until tomorrow morning. After that, the system is expected to rapidly fill-up.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Joni from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
12:27 PM WST March 12 2012
=========================

A tropical low [16U] lies off the Pilbara coast approximately 320 kilometres northwest of Karratha in the vicinity of 18.7S 114.7E. It is possible that it will develop into a tropical cyclone during Tuesday but it is more likely to reach tropical cyclone intensity later in the week. This system is not expected to cause gales in Pilbara communities during Tuesday or Wednesday but a coastal impact is likely on Friday or Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================

Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: High
Thursday: High
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL LOW 17U
11:27 AM CST March 12 2012
=======================

At 9:30 AM CST, Tropical Low (1001 hPa) located at 10.3S 129.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop later.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Areas are advised that if you DO NOT have accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Cape Hotham to Kalumburu including Darwin and the Tiwi Islands
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE JONI (13-20112012)
4:00 AM RET March 12 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Joni (992 hPa) located at 26.4S 80.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==========
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle, and up to 80 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 300 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 28.8S 81.4E - 35 knots (Depression Extratropicale)
24 HRS: 30.5S 82.6E - 35 knots (Depression Extratropicale)
48 HRS: 31.5S 83.8E - Depression se Comblant
72 HRS: 33.0S 86.3E - Depression se Comblant

Additional Information
======================

Koji-Joni clearly undergoes the north-westerly strengthening vertical wind shear ahead an upper tropospheric trough, with residual convection far from the center in its south. Cc satellite picture at 11MAR/2206 PM UTC suggests a broad, almost totally exposed low level vortex. Dvorak analysis is not relevant any more.

Within the next 24 hours, Koji-Joni should go on tracking south southeastward under the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge in its east. From tau 36-60 hours, system should slow down as high pressures should rebuilt temporarily in its south, and accelerate again at the end of the forecast range.

On this track, degradation of the environmental conditions will go on, with strong northwesterly vertical wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperature (under 25C). So, Koji-Joni is expected to weaken rather rapidly. On and after 48 hours, system should begin to fill up within the mid-latitudes.

Actual RSMC forecast is a consensus of available numerical weather prediction models which are in tight agreement for the track for the next 24 hours, but are more spread beyond, but the general trend is the evacuation of the system towards the mid-latitudes.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Joni from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE JONI (13-20112012)
22:00 PM RET March 11 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Joni (992 hPa) located at 25.2S 80.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 13 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==========
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle, and up to 80 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 300 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 27.7S 81.0E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 29.7S 81.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 30.9S 82.8E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 33.0S 84.1E - Depression se Comblant

Additional Information
======================

Koji-Joni clearly undergoes the northwesterly strengthening vertical wind shear ahead an upper tropospheric trough, with convection far from the center in the southeastern semi-circle, and despite a burst of convection depicted on the last animated infrared pictures.

Within the next 24 hours, Koji-Joni should keep on tracking south southeastward under the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge situated in its east. From tau 24-72 hours, the system should slow down as high pressures should rebuilt temporarily in its south.

On this track, degradation of the environmental conditions will go on, with strong northwesterly vertical wind-shear and decreasing sea surface temperature (under 25C). So, Koji-Joni is expected to weaken rather rapidly. After 48 hours, system should begin to fill up within the mid-latitudes.

Actual RSMC forecast is a consensus of available numerical weather prediction models which are in tight agreement for the track for the next 24-36 hours, but are more and more spread beyond, but the general trend is the evacuation of the system towards the mid-latitudes.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Joni from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE JONI (13-20112012)
16:00 PM RET March 11 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Joni (989 hPa) located at 23.7S 79.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 11 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==========
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 280 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.5/W1.0/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 26.2S 79.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 28.5S 79.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 30.3S 80.5E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 31.9S 81.4E - Depression se Comblant

Additional Information
======================

Koji-Joni more and more clearly undergoes the northwesterly strengthening vertical wind shear ahead an upper tropospheric trough. Cc satellite pictures show that convection is slowly shifting toward the south-east from the low level center. Low level circulation center is more and more exposed. DT is at 3.0 in sheared configuration but met is at 2.5. Current intensity is downgraded at 45 knots.

Within the next 24 hours, Koji-Joni should keep on tracking southward under the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge situated in its east. From tau 24-72 hours, it is expected that system will slow down south southeastward as the ridge a little going away toward the northwest.

On this track, environmental conditions continue to degrade with strong northwesterly vertical wind shear and sea surface temperature rapidly decreasing. So, Koji-Joni is expected to weaken rather rapidly on. After 72 hours, system should begin to fill up within the mid-latitudes.

Actual RSMC forecast is a consensus of available numerical weather prediction models which are in tight agreement for the track for the next 24-36 hours, but are more and more spread beyond, but the general trend is the evacuation of the system towards the mid-latitudes.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Joni from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
12:34 PM WST March 11 2012
=========================

A tropical low lies off the Pilbara coast approximately 470 kilometres northwest of Karratha in the vicinity of 18S 113.5E. It is possible that it will develop into a tropical cyclone during Monday but it is more likely to reach tropical cyclone intensity later in the week. This system is not expected to cause gales in Pilbara communities during Monday or Tuesday but the risk of a coastal impact increases during the week.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================

Monday: Moderate
Tuesday: High
Wednesday: High
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST NORTHERN TERRITORY AREA BETWEEN 125E-142E
2:15 pm CST March 11 2012
================================================= ===

A weak tropical low is located in the Arafura Sea north of Cobourg Peninsula. The low is expected to slowly deepen as it moves west or southwest towards the Timor Sea, and may take a more southerly track from Tuesday. There is a moderate risk of a tropical cyclone forming in the Timor Sea around the middle of the week.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================

Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate
Wednesday: Moderate
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE JONI (13-20112012)
4:00 AM RET March 11 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Joni (986 hPa) located at 21.4S 794E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
==========
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 250 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 23.1S 79.2E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 25.2S 79.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 28.7S 80.1E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 30.3S 80.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Convection has rebuilt into a regular central dense overcast pattern, with the benefit of an efficient polar outflow helping it to resist to a weak to moderate north-easterly vertical wind shear under the western edge of an upper tropospheric anticyclonic cell axed along 21.0S.

Within the next 36 hours, Koji-Joni should go on globally southwards under the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge in its east. From tau 36-72 hours, it is forecast to slow down southward with the rebuilding of the low-tropospheric subtropical high pressures.


On this track, environmental conditions should begin to degrade as vertical wind shear should increase sharply on Sunday ahead an upper tropospheric trough. Ocean heat content is insufficient south of 22.0S. So system is expected to weaken rapidly on. After 72 hours, system should begin to fill up as it tracks around the western side of the aforementioned low-tropospheric high pressures.

Actual RSMC forecast is a consensus of the available numerical weather prediction models which are in tight agreement for the track for the next 48 hours, but are more and more spread beyond, but the general trend is the evacuation of the system towards the mid-latitudes.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Joni from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE JONI (13-20112012)
22:00 PM RET March 10 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Joni (986 hPa) located at 20.5S 79.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
==========
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 250 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 22.1S 78.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 23.9S 78.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 28.3S 79.4E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 30.0S 78.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Convection has rebuilt into a regular central dense overcast pattern, with the benefit of an efficient polar outflow helping it to resist to a weak to moderate north-easterly vertical wind shear under the western edge of an upper tropospheric anticyclonic cell axed along 20.0S.

Within the next 36 hours, Koji-Joni should recurve globally south southwestward under the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge in its east. From tau 48-84 hours, it is forecast to slow down southward with the rebuilding of the low-tropospheric subtropical high pressures.

On this track, environmental conditions should begin to degrade during the next hours. Indeed, vertical wind shear should increase sharply ahead an upper tropospheric trough. Ocean heat content is insufficient south of 22.0S. So system is expected to weaken rapidly on and after next night. After 84 hours, system should begin to fill up as it tracks around the western side of the aforementioned low-tropospheric high pressures.

Actual RSMC forecast is a consensus of the available numerical weather prediction models which are in tight agreement for the track for the next 48 hours, but are more and more spread beyond, but the general trend is the evacuation of the system towards the mid-latitudes.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Joni from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE JONI (13-20112012)
16:00 PM RET March 10 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Joni (986 hPa) located at 20.3S 80.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 11 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
==========
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant, up to 250 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 21.8S 78.8E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 23.5S 77.9E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 26.4S 77.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 28.8S 77.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

T=3.0 AND CI=3.5

Within the past few hours, convection has became fluctuating. System is struggling against a weak to moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear under the western edge of an upper tropospheric anticyclonic cell axed along 18.0S.

Within the next 24 hours, Koji-Joni should recurve globally south southwestward under the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric ridge in its east. From 24-72 hours, it is forecast to slow down southward with the rebuilding of the low-tropospheric subtropical high pressures.

On this track, on and after 12 hours, environmental conditions should degrade rapidly . Indeed, vertical wind shear should increase sharply ahead an upper tropospheric trough. Ocean heat content is insufficient south of 22.0S. System is also expected to weaken rapidly on and after next night.

After 72 hours, system should fill up as it should track around the western side of the aforementioned low-tropospheric high pressures.

Actual RSMC forecast is a consensus of the available numerical weather prediction models which are in tight agreement for the track for the next 48 hours, but are more and more spread beyond, but the general trend is the evacuation of the system towards the mid-latitudes.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Joni from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #49
PERTURBATION TROPICALE, FORMER IRINA (11-20112012)
16:00 PM RET March 10 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance, Former Irina (1005 hPa) located at 28.8S 35.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 26.9S 35.3E - Depression se Comblant
24 HRS: 24.9S 34.6E - Depression se Comblant
48 HRS: 21.4S 34.3E - Depression sur Terre

Additional Information
=======================

Low level vortex is now very bad defined. Near gale force winds should persist in the southwestern quadrant due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures.

The residual low of ex-irina is filling up and should be very weak when it will approach the mozambican coast on sunday.

This is the last warning on this system unless re-intensification.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE JONI (13-20112012)
10:00 AM RET March 10 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Joni (986 hPa) located at 19.8S 80.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 15 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
==========
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 250 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 21.1S 79.4E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 23.1S 78.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 27.5S 78.4E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 28.9S 79.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Recent microwave imagery (SSMIS 0047 AM UTC) depicts convection in phase with the low level circulation center. Multispectral imagery shows radial outflow in the western sector. Latest CIMSS analysis confirm the weakening of the vertical wind shear.

Koji-Joni is expected within the next 24 hours to progressively recurve south southwestwards under the steering influence of a weakness in the subtropical high pressures belt. Sunday 11th and Monday 12th, system should keeps on tracking globally southwards then south southeastwards. System lies under an upper level ridge with a good upper level poleward outflow. There is a short window for intensification today. For tonight (by 12 hours), northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to regularly strengthen and system would therefore rapidly weaken over unfavorable oceanic heat content south of 21.0S.

Tuesday 13th, system is expected to clearly slow down under the influence of a subtropical high pressures cell transiting in its south then to accelerate Wednesday 14th as the aforementioned cell move away eastwards.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Joni from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #48
PERTURBATION TROPICALE, FORMER IRINA (11-20112012)
10:00 AM RET March 10 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance, Former Irina (1002 hPa) located at 29.0S 36.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 27.6S 35.7E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 25.2S 35.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 21.4S 34.3E - Depression sur Terre

Additional Information
=======================

Low level vortex is totally exposed in the north of the deep convective activity. Strongest winds exist in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures.

The system is expected to recurve north northwestwards today, under the steering influence of the high pressures rebuilding over South Africa.

Throughout the forecast period, sea surface temperature remain marginal (25 to 26C). The northwesterly wind shear still participates to the current weakening trend.

Ex-Irina should be a filling up low by the time it will make landfall on Mozambican coasts.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Irina from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
12:03 PM WST March 10 2012
=========================

A low is developing off the Pilbara coast approximately 600 km north northwest of Karratha in the vicinity of 16S 114E. It is possible that it will develop into a tropical cyclone during Sunday but it is more likely to reach tropical cyclone intensity during the week. This system is not expected to cause gales in Pilbara communities during Sunday or Monday but the risk of a coastal impact increases during the week

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================

Sunday: Moderate
Monday: High
Tuesday: High
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST NORTHERN TERRITORY AREA BETWEEN 125E-142E
2:15 pm CST March 10 2012
================================================= ===

A weak tropical low has formed in the Arafura Sea well north of the Arnhem coast. The low is expected to slowly deepen as it moves west or southwest towards the Timor Sea. There is an increasing risk of a tropical cyclone developing in the Timor Sea during the week, which could affect the Kimberley coast from Wednesday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================

Sunday: Low
Monday: Low
Tuesday: Moderate
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE JONI (13-20112012)
4:00 AM RET March 10 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Joni (986 hPa) located at 19.2S 82.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 17 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
==========
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 250 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 20.7S 80.2E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 22.4S 79.2E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 26.2S 79.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 29.2S 80.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Both microwave TRMM 09MAR/1958 PM UTC and SSMI F15 09MAR/2216 PM UTC swaths keep on showing a low level circulation center (37 ghz) de-phased at about 20 NM northeastward with the upper level circulation center one(85 ghz). Despite a clearly accelerating motion, northeasterly vertical wind shear remains obvious on the northern edge of the upper level ridge.

Koji-Joni is expected within the next 24 hours to progressively recurve south southwestwards under the steering influence of a weakness in the subtropical high pressures belt. Over this forecast track, system will cross under the aforementioned upper level ridge (axed along 20.0S) and environmental conditions should therefore temporarily improve aloft and limit the system current weakening trend. Sunday 11th and Monday 12th, system should keeps on tracking globally southwards then south southeastwards. Northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to regularly strengthen and system would therefore rapidly weaken over unfavorable oceanic heat content south of 21s. Tuesday 13th, system is expected to clearly slow down under the influence of a subtropical high pressures cell transiting in its south then to accelerate Wednesday 14th as the aforementioned cell move away eastwards.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Joni from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #47
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER IRINA (11-20112012)
4:00 AM RET March 10 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Irina (999 hPa) located at 29.4S 36.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 4 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle and locally reaching gale force winds and very rough seas within 50 NM radius from the center in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 28.6S 35.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 26.8S 35.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 22.2S 35.1E - Depression se Comblant

Additional Information
=======================

Low level vortex keeps on being partially exposed in the northwest of the deep convective activity. Strongest winds exist in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures.

The system is now expected to recurve north northwestwards under the steering influence of the high pressures rebuilding over South Africa.

Throughout the forecast period, sea surface temperature remain marginal (25 to 26C). The northwesterly wind-shear still participates to the current weakening trend.

Ex-Irina should be a filling up low by the time it will make landfall on Mozambican coasts.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Irina from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE JONI (13-20112012)
22:00 PM RET March 9 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Joni (982 hPa) located at 18.1S 83.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 13 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
==========
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 170 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 250 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 19.2S 81.7E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 20.5S 80.2E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 23.3S 79.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 27.0S 80.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
======================

Microwave SSMIS F18 1450 PM UTC reveals a deep convective activity close to the center but organized in a small curved band feature. Infrared meteosat7 imagery shows however a very cold ccc, sign of an almost stationary intensity. T number has been slightly reduced to take in account the convective inner structure revealed by the aforementioned SSMIS.

The track forecast philosophy has not changed within the next three days: Koji-Joni is expected to keep on tracking globally west southwestwards on the northern edge of the subtropical mid-level ridge. This ridge is expected to gradually weaken tomorrow with a weakness located along 80.0E. On this track, easterly wind shear is expected to keep on existing aloft but is expected to gradually relax Saturday and allow some little strengthening.

Saturday and Sunday, the system is expected to recurve southwards in the weakness and towards a transiting mid-latitude trough. Late Saturday, environmental conditions should be at their best for the system as it should lie along the upper level ridge..However some northerly shear is likely to still exist by that time. sea surface temperature and oceanic heat contain favorable up to around 21.0S, may contribute to the weakening of the system on Sunday.

Sunday and beyond, the system will move over cooler waters and undergo an increase in northerly shear ... so a weakening trend is expected at that time.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Joni from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #46
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER IRINA (11-20112012)
22:00 PM RET March 9 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Irina (999 hPa) located at 29.7S 37.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 80 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant, but reaching gale force winds and very rough to high seas within 30 to 50 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 29.4S 35.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 27.8S 35.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 22.4S 34.1E - Depression sur Terre

Additional Information
=======================

Low level vortex keeps on being partially exposed in the northwest of the deep convective activity. Strongest winds exist in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressures.

The system is expected to keep on shifting slowly globally westwards until Saturday morning on the northern edge of a weak mid level ridge. Beyond, high pressures located over South Africa will steer the system north northwestwards.

Throughout the forecast period, sea surface temperature remain marginal (25 to 26C). The wind shear is still rather low but is expected to strengthen this afternoon and maintain the current weakening trend.

Ex-Irina should be a filling up low by the time it will make landfall on Mozambican coasts.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Irina from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE JONI (13-20112012)
16:00 PM RET March 9 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Joni (980 hPa) located at 17.1S 85.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
==========
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant, and up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 260 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 270 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 18.2S 82.6E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 19.6S 80.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 22.1S 79.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 26.2S 79.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=======================

AMSU pass of 0742 AM UTC show that convection has difficulties to resist to the northeasterly upper level constraint, it remains only the western part of the convection around the eye existing at the end of the night in the mid level. The center is always not vertically in phase with convection.

The track forecast philosophy has not changed much within the next three days: Koji-Joni is expected to keep on tracking globally west southwestwards on the northern edge of the subtropical mid-level ridge. This feature is expected to gradually weaken tomorrow with a weakness located along 80.0E. On this track, easterly wind shear is expected to keep on existing aloft but is expected to gradually relax Saturday and allow some little strengthening.

Saturday and Sunday, the system is expected to recurve southwards in the weakness and towards a transiting mid-latitude trough. Late Saturday, environmental conditions should be at their best for the system as it should lie along the upper level ridge ... However some northerly shear is likely to maintain a bit by that time. sea surface temperature and oceanic heat contain favorable up to around 21.0S, may contribute to the weakening of the system on Sunday.

Sunday and beyond, the system will move over cooler waters and undergo an increase in northerly shear... so a weakening trend is expected at that time.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Joni from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER IRINA (11-20112012)
16:00 PM RET March 9 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Irina (999 hPa) located at 29.4S 37.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 80 NM in the southwestern quadrant, but reaching gale force winds and very rough to high seas within 30 to 50 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 29.0S 36.5E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 28.3S 35.7E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 23.5S 34.6E - Depression sur Terre
72 HRS: 17.2S 35.8E - Depression sur Terre

Additional Information
=======================

Convection remains quite weak, and the center is completely exposed northwest to the convection. Stronger winds are located in the southern semi-circle due to the gradient of pressure.

The system still drifts slowly globally westwards. It is expected to keep on shifting slowly globally west northwestwards until Saturday morning on the northern edge of a weak mid level ridge. Beyond, high pressures located over South Africa will steer the system north northwestwards.

Throughout the forecast period, sea surface temperature remain marginal (25 to 26C). The wind-shear is still rather low but is expected to strengthen this afternoon and maintain the current weakening trend.

Irina should be a filling up low by the time it will make landfall on Mozambican coasts.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Irina from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #44
DEPRESSION TROPICALE, FORMER IRINA (11-20112012)
10:00 AM RET March 9 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Irina (998 hPa) located at 29.2S 38.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=============
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 85 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 105 NM in the southwestern quadrant, but reaching gale force winds and very rough to high seas within 60 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 29.1S 37.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 28.7S 36.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.1S 35.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

Convection remains quite weak near the center.

The system still drifts slowly globally westwards. It is expected to keep on shifting slowly globally west northwestwards until Saturday morning on the northern edge of a weak mid level ridge. Beyond, high pressures located over South Africa will steer the system north northwestwards.

Throughout the forecast period, sea surface temperature remain marginal (25 to 26C). The wind-shear is still rather low but is expected to strengthen this afternoon and maintain the current weakening trend.

Irina should be a filling up low by the time it will make landfall near Inhambane. Consequently Irina should not be considered any more as a threat for Mozambique

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC Irina from Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST WESTERN AUSTRALIA REGION BETWEEN 90E-125E SOUTH OF 10S
12:47 PM WST March 9 2012
=========================

A low is developing south southwest of Bali in the vicinity of 13S 112E. It is possible that it will develop into a tropical cyclone as early as Sunday but it is more likely to reach tropical cyclone intensity during next week. This low is expected to move generally southwards and may be located off the Pilbara coast for much of next week. The risk of a coastal impact increases during the week. Pilbara and Kimberley coastal communities are advised to keep up to date with weather forecasts over the coming days.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================

Saturday: Low
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: High
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45223

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