Tropical Depression

By: HadesGodWyvern , 2:40 AM GMT on March 01, 2012

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Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

March
T201201.Pakhar - 998 hPa

April
Tropical Depression "90C" - 1004 hPa
Tropical Depression - 1008 hPa


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North Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department


Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================


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Southeastern Pacific Ocean
=======================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Nadi Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

March
14F.NONAME - 1005 hPa
15F.NONAME - 1005 hPa
16F.NONAME - 1003 hPa
17F.NONAME - 999 hPa
18F.NONAME - 1004 hPa
19F.Daphne - 985 hPa

April
20F.NONAME - 1009 hPa

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==========================
Southwestern Pacific Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Bureau of Meteorology

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

March
17U.NONAME - 991 hPa


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==========================
Southeastern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Bureau of Meteorology

Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
---------------------------------------------

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

March
15U.Koji - 993 hPa (moved west of 90E)
16U.LUA - 932 hPa

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==========================
Southwestern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Mauritius Meteorological Services
Seychelles Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

March
11R.Irina - 979 hPa
12R.NONAME - 996 hPa
13R.Joni - 980 hPa (Entered from TCWC Perth - TC Koji)


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Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST March 27 2012
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 9.0N 115.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 17F
9:00 AM FST March 27 2012
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 17F (1004 hPa) located at 15.0S 175.0E is reported as slow moving. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Convection has decreased slightly in the past 12 hours. Tropical disturbance 17 lies to the east of an upper trough in a low sheared environment and is expected to move into an area of increasing shear. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Most global models have picked up the system and are moving it southeast with little intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 16F
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 17F

18:00 PM FST March 26 2012
=================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 16F (1005 hPa) located at 16.2S 177.5W is reported as slow moving. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization remains poor. Convection persistent. Tropical disturbance 16 lies to the east of an upper trough in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Most global models have picked up the system and are moving it southeast with little intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.

System #2
--------

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 17F (1003 hPa) located at 13.0S 176.7E is reported as slow moving. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Low level circulation center partially exposed with convection mainly confined to the northeast quadrant of the system. Tropical disturbance 17 lies to the east of an upper trough in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Most global models have picked up the system and are moving it south with little intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 16F
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 17F

9:00 AM FST March 26 2012
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 16F (1005 hPa) located at 16.1S 177.4W is reported as slow moving. Position poor based on multisatellite visible imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization remains poor. Convection persistent. Tropical disturbance 16F lies to the east of an upper trough in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Most global models have picked up the system and are moving it southeast with little intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.

System #2
---------

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 17F (1004 hPa) located at 12.3S 176.2E is reported as slow moving. Position fair based on multisatellite visible imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Low level circulation center partially exposed with convection mainly confined to the northeast quadrant of the system. Tropical disturbance 17F lies to the east of an upper trough in a moderately sheared environment. cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA.

Most global models have picked up the system and are moving it south with little intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 16F
18:00 PM FST March 25 2012
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 16F (1003 hPa) located at 14.5S 179.1W is reported as slow moving. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection remains persistent and organization remains poor. Tropical disturbance lies to the east of an upper trough under an upper diffluent region in a low to moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Most global models have picked up the system and are moving it south with little intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
151. HadesGodWyvern
12:01 AM GMT on March 25, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 16F
9:00 AM FST March 25 2012
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 16F (1005 hPa) located at 13.9S 179.0W is reported as slow moving. Position fair based on multisatellite visible imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Low level circulation center exposed with deep convection displaced to northeast. Disturbance 16F lies to the east of an upper trough under an upper diffluent region and in a moderately sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Global models have picked up the system and are moving it south with little intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
150. HadesGodWyvern
1:37 PM GMT on March 24, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 16F
18:00 PM FST March 24 2012
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 16F (1005 hPa) located at 13.0S 178.0W is reported as slow moving. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization remains poor. Deep convection has increased near the system. Tropical disturbance 16F lies along a surface trough and to the east of an upper trough in a moderately sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Most global models have picked up the system and are moving it south with little intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 - 48 hours remains LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
149. HadesGodWyvern
12:26 AM GMT on March 24, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 16F
9:00 AM FST March 24 2012
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 16F (1007 hPa) located at 13.7S 177.6W is reported as slow moving. Position fair based on multisatellite visible imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization remains poor in the past 24 hours. The system has an exposed low level circulation center. Convection has not increased much in the past 24 hours. Tropical disturbance 16F lies along a surface trough and under an upper diffluent region in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Most global models have picked up the system and are moving it south with little intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours remains LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
148. HadesGodWyvern
5:22 PM GMT on March 23, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 16F
18:00 PM FST March 23 2012
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 16F (1007 hPa) located at 13.5S 177.0W is reported as slow moving. Position poor. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization remains poor in the last 24 hours. Convection has slightly increased. Tropical disturbance lies along a surface trough under an upper diffluent region in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Most global models have picked up the system and are moving it southeast with little intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 - 48 hours remains LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
147. HadesGodWyvern
7:32 AM GMT on March 23, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 16F
9:00 AM FST March 23 2012
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 16F (1009 hPa) located at 12.0S 178.0W is reported as slow moving. Position poor. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization remains poor in the last 24 hours. Convection has increased significantly. Tropical Disturbance 16F lies along a surface trough in a weak sheared environment. The system lies under an upper diffluent region. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.

Most global models have picked up the system and are moving it southeast with little intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
146. HadesGodWyvern
5:24 AM GMT on March 21, 2012
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
March 21 2012
============================

At 1:00 PM EST, a tropical low was situated approximately 85 km north northeast of Longreach and moving in a southeasterly direction at 17
km/h.

The low is expected to continue moving in a southeasterly direction today and into Thursday while weakening gradually over land.

No other significant lows are expected to develop in the region over the next three days.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
145. HadesGodWyvern
1:07 PM GMT on March 20, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 15F
18:00 PM FST March 20 2012
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 15F (1004 hPa) located at 24.0S 168.0E is reported as moving southeast at about 10 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery with animation and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Convection remains persistent and organization remains poor for past 12 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends to 700 HPA. System lies under a strong upper westerly wind flow in a moderate to high sheared environment.

Most global models have picked up the system and move it southeast with slight intensification.

Potential for this disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 remains LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
144. HadesGodWyvern
3:17 AM GMT on March 20, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 15F
9:00 AM FST March 20 2012
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 15F (1005 hPa) located at 20.8S 161.0E is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery with animation and surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 27C.

Convection remains persistent and organization remains poor for the past 12 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends to 700 HPA. System lies under a strong upper westerly wind flow in a moderate to high sheared environment.

Most global models have picked up the system and move it southeast with slight intensification.

Potential for this disturbance to develop into a cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
143. HadesGodWyvern
7:16 PM GMT on March 18, 2012
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #14
TROPICAL LOW 17U
4:00 AM EST March 19 2012
================================

At 3:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (992 hPa) located at 17.0S 141.0E or 55 km north northeast of Karumba and 195 km east of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southwest at 1 knot.

Dvorak Intensity: Overland

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

The Cyclone WARNING for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld Border to Pormpuraaw, including Mornington and Sweers Islands, has been cancelled.

The Cyclone WATCH for coastal areas from Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 17.6S 140.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 18.2S 140.9E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 20.6S 142.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 21.8S 144.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

The system is currently over land and the forecast track has a southerly movement for the next 24 hours before turning south-southeast across central Queensland. Movement back over water is considered unlikely and therefore the chances of this low developing into a tropical cyclone are considered low.

Convection has eased near the system centre in the last 3-5 hours with convective bands persisting, chiefly over water, well to the north. The 12:48UTC Ascat pass showed near gales to the west of the system and also along the convective band to the north.

No further advices will be issued for this system unless it moves over water
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
142. HadesGodWyvern
1:35 PM GMT on March 18, 2012
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #12
TROPICAL LOW 17U
11:00 PM EST March 18 2012
================================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (993 hPa) located at 16.8S 140.7E or 80 km north of Karumba and 160 km east of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving northwest at 1 knot.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

The low is expected to move to the southwest over the next 24 to 36 hours over Gulf of Carpentaria waters where it is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone during Monday morning.

GALES are expected to affect coastal areas between the NT/Qld border and Pormpuraaw during Monday morning. GALES may develop between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border, including Borroloola late Monday, only if the cyclone moves further westwards.

Heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding is expected about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and adjacent inland areas between NT/Qld border and Pormpuraaw.

Water levels on the high tide could also exceed the highest tide of the year about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and islands between the NT/Qld border and Pormpuraaw.

People between NT/Qld border and Pormpuraaw should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 2:00 am EST [1:30 am CST].
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

For people in the Northern Territory:
The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld Border to Pormpuraaw, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 17.0S 140.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 17.5S 140.2E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.9S 140.9E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 21.0S 143.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.6 degree wrap on log10 spiral, giving DT of 3.0. MET and PT suggest 2.5. Final Dvorak based on MET and PT.

Convection has become more organize over the last 6 to 12 hours with the broad circulation clearly visible on radar. The low exists in a low to moderate shear environment with favorable upper divergence evident on the CIMMS satellite imagery. Favorable sea surface temperatures greater than 30 degrees also exist across the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The low will likely adopt a southwest track on Monday as a result of a mid-level trough over southern Queensland weakening, and a mid-level ridge over the Coral Sea developing slightly.

Overall, the low is in a favorable environment for further development and is expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone during Monday morning, though proximity to land could be a limiting factor.

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 17U from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 16:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
141. HadesGodWyvern
7:06 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
TROPICAL LOW 17U
5:00 PM EST March 18 2012
================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (993 hPa) located at 16.7S 140.6E or 90 km north northwest of Karumba and 150 km east of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

The TROPICAL LOW located over far southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria waters is moving slowly in a northwesterly direction. The low is expected to continue moving in a northwesterly direction over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters this evening, where it is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone during early Monday morning. The low is expected to adopt more of a southwesterly track during Monday.

GALES are expected to develop up to 185 kilometres from the low centre, affecting coastal areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer during Monday morning. GALES may possibly develop between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border, including Borroloola late Monday, only if the cyclone maintains an overall westward track during Monday.

Heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding is expected about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and adjacent inland areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer.

Water levels on the high tide could also exceed the highest tide of the year about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and islands between the NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer.

People between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 8:00 pm EST [7:30 pm CST].
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

For people in the Northern Territory:
The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.6S 140.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 17.0S 140.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.4S 140.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 20.6S 143.2E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.4 degree wrap on log10 spiral, giving DT of 2.5. MET and PT suggest 3.0 and 2.5 respectively. Final Dvorak based on DT as it is clear.

Low level convection has improved significantly over the last 6 hours and deep convection has developed near the center of the low. The low exists in a low to moderate shear environment with favorable upper divergence evident on the CIMMS satellite imagery. Favorable sea surface temperatures greater than 30 degrees also exist across the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The low will continue to move in a northwesterly direction this evening due to the influence of a mid level ridge across central Australia, though the low should adopt more of a southwesterly track during Monday. Overall, the low is in a favorable environment for further development and is expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone during early Monday morning.

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 17U from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 10:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
140. HadesGodWyvern
4:59 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #40
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER LUA (16U)
12:00 PM WST March 18 2012
===========================

At 11:00 AM WST, Tropical Low, Former Lua (989 hPa) located at 26.0S 120.3E or 65 km north of Wiluna has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 18 knots.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Lua has weakened below tropical cyclone intensity.

Damaging wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are possible near the centre in the eastern Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields during Sunday.

Heavy rainfall in the eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and far western interior should extend south into the remaining Goldfields during Sunday. Rainfall should ease in the northern Gascoyne during the day.

A Severe Weather Warning is active for this system. Please refer to warning [IDW28001] for more information.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT
People in or near Wiluna are advised that the Blue Alert has been lifted but there is still a Severe Weather Warning active for the area. Please refer to product IDW28001 for more information.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION
People in remaining parts of the eastern Gascoyne and inland areas of the Pilbara including Meekatharra, Nullagine, Newman, Jigalong, Woodie Woodie, Nifty Mine, Moly Mines, Telfer, Warralong, Yarrie and Yandeyarra are advised that the wind danger has passed.

The Cyclone WARNING has been cancelled for the eastern Gascoyne, far western Interior and far northern Goldfields including Three Rivers and Wiluna.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
139. HadesGodWyvern
4:53 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #9
TROPICAL LOW 17U
2:00 PM EST March 18 2012
================================

At 1:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (994 hPa) located at 16.8S 140.8E or 75 km north of Karumba and 170 km east of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.

The TROPICAL LOW located over far southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria waters is moving slowly in a northwesterly direction. The low is expected to continue moving in a northwesterly direction over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters today, where it may develop into a tropical cyclone during Monday morning.

GALES are expected to develop up to 185 kilometres from the low centre, affecting coastal areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer during Monday morning. GALES may possibly develop between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border, including Borroloola late Monday, only if the cyclone maintains an overall westward track.

Heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding is expected about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and adjacent inland areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer.

Water levels on the high tide could also exceed the highest tide of the year about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and islands between Port McArthur and Cape Keerweer.

People between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 5:00 pm EST [4:30 pm CST].
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

For people in the Northern Territory:
The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border.

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 17U from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
138. HadesGodWyvern
1:24 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #39
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY ONE (16U)
9:00 AM WST March 18 2012
===========================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category One (988 hPa) located at 24.6S 120.3E or 220 km north of Wiluna has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 16 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Lua crossed the east Pilbara coast just to the east of Pardoo Station around 3pm WST Saturday. Lua has moved southwards and steadily weekened since then. The system is expected to weaken below cyclone intensity by noon Sunday.

Gales are occurring in the northeast Gascoyne and adjacent far western Interior and expected to ease during the morning. Damaging wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are possible near the cyclone centre in the eastern Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields during Sunday and are expected to persist until evening. Refer Severe Weather Warning [IDW28001] for more information.

Heavy rainfall in the eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and far western Interior should extend south into the remaining Goldfields during Sunday. Rainfall should ease in the northern Gascoyne during the day.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Wiluna and all adjacent communities, pastoral stations and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION
People in remaining parts of the eastern Gascoyne and inland areas of the Pilbara including Meekatharra, Nullagine, Newman, Jigalong, Woodie Woodie, Nifty Mine, Moly Mines, Telfer, Warralong, Yarrie and Yandeyarra are advised that the wind danger has passed. People in coastal communities from Dampier to Broome, including the towns of Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson, Port and South Hedland, Marble Bar and Bidyadanga are advised that the wind danger has passed.

Remaining communities in the east Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for the eastern Gascoyne, far western Interior and the far northern Goldfields including Three Rivers and Wiluna.

The Cyclone WARNING has been cancelled for the southeast Pilbara including Nullagine, Newman and Jigalong.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 4:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
137. HadesGodWyvern
1:19 AM GMT on March 18, 2012
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
TROPICAL LOW 17U
11:00 AM EST March 18 2012
================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (995 hPa) located at 16.9S 140.8E or 65 km north of Karumba and 170 km east of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24 HRS

The TROPICAL LOW located over far southeastern Gulf of Carpentaria waters is moving slowly in a northwesterly direction. The low is expected to continue moving in a northwesterly direction over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters today, where it may develop into a tropical cyclone on Monday.

GALES are expected to develop up to 185 kilometres from the low centre, affecting coastal areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer during Monday morning. GALES may possibly develop between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border, including Borroloola late Monday, only if the cyclone maintains an overall westward track.

Heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding is expected about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and adjacent inland areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer.

Water levels on the high tide could also exceed the highest tide of the year about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and islands between Port McArthur and Cape Keerweer.

People between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 2 pm EST [1:30 pm CST].
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au) - For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

For people in the Northern Territory:
The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.5S 140.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 16.5S 140.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 17.6S 139.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 18.8S 139.5E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.25 degree wrap on log10 spiral and an added 0.5 for white band, giving DT of 2.0. MET and PT both suggest 1.5. FT based on DT as it is clear.

Mornington Island radar suggests that the low level center is now off the coast and that the low has adopted a northwesterly track. SSMI-S 37 GHz microwave image at 2231UTC also suggests that the low level center is now off the coast. The low exists in a moderate shear environment with favorable upper divergence evident on the CIMMS satellite imagery. Favorable sea surface temperatures greater than 30 degrees also exist across the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The low will continue to move in a northwesterly direction today as the low falls under the influence of a mid level ridge developing across central Australia. The low is expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone on Monday morning considering the favorable environment for development that the low exists in.

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 17U from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 4:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
136. HadesGodWyvern
11:13 PM GMT on March 17, 2012
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #7
TROPICAL LOW 17U
8:00 AM EST March 18 2012
================================

At 7:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (992 hPa) located at 17.1S 140.9E or 45 km north of Karumba and 185 km east southeast of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southhwest at 6 knots.

The TROPICAL LOW located north of Karumba is moving westwards. The low is expected to take a more northwesterly track over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters today, where it may develop into a tropical cyclone on Monday.

GALES are expected to develop up to 170 kilometres from the low centre, affecting coastal areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer Monday morning. GALES may develop between Port McArthur, including Borroloola and NT/Qld border late Monday, if the cyclone maintains a westward track.

Heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding is expected about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and adjacent inland areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer.

Water levels on the high tide could also exceed the highest tide of the year about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and islands between Port McArthur and Cape Keerweer.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for Heavy Rain and Abnormally High Tides for northern Cape York Peninsula and for Torres Strait Islands.

People between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 11 am EST [10:30 am CST].
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

For people in the Northern Territory: The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border.

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 17U from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
135. HadesGodWyvern
11:10 PM GMT on March 17, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #37
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY ONE (16U)
6:00 AM WST March 18 2012
===========================

At 5:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category One (988 hPa) located at 23.7S 120.3E or 70 km east southeast of Newman has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 15 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Lua crossed the east Pilbara coast just to the east of Pardoo Station around 3pm WST Saturday. Lua will continue weakening and moving south through the NE Gascoyne during Sunday morning.

Gales are occurring over far northeastern parts of the Gascoyne and adjacent far southeast Pilbara, and gales may reach the adjacent Interior and possibly the far northern Goldfields during Sunday morning as the cyclone moves further south and continues to weaken.

Damaging wind gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are possible close to the cyclone centre during Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall over the southeast Pilbara and eastern Gascoyne and will extend to the western Interior and northern Goldfields during Sunday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in inland areas of the Pilbara including Nullagine, Newman, Jigalong, Woodie Woodie, Nifty and Moly Mines and all other adjacent mining and pastoral leases need to remain in shelter or go to shelter immediately.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Wiluna, Meekatharra and all adjacent communiites, pastoral stations and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION
People in coastal communities from Dampier to Broome, including the towns of Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson, Port and South Hedland, Marble Bar and Bidyadanga are advised that the wind danger has passed. People in Telfer, Warralong, Yarrie and Yandeyarra are also advised that the wind danger has passed.

Remaining communities in the inland eastern Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for The southeast Pilbara, including Nullagine, Newman and Jigalong, the eastern Gascoyne and the far northern Goldfields including Wiluna.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
134. HadesGodWyvern
7:37 PM GMT on March 17, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #36
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
3:00 AM WST March 18 2012
===========================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Two (982 hPa) located at 22.9S 120.3E or 150 km north northeast of Newman has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 15 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Lua crossed the east Pilbara coast just to the east of Pardoo Station around 3pm WST Saturday. Lua will continue weakening and moving south through the inland Pilbara during Sunday morning.

Gales are occurring in inland areas near Newman and Jigalong. Destructive wind gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour are possible close to the cyclone centre for the next few hours.

As the cyclone moves further south, gales may reach the eastern Gascoyne areas, adjacent Interior and possibly the far northern Goldfields during Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall in inland parts of the east Pilbara is expected to extend into the eastern Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields during Sunday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in inland areas of the Pilbara including Nullagine, Newman, Jigalong, Woodie Woodie, Nifty and Moly Mines and all other adjacent mining and pastoral leases need to remain in shelter or go to shelter immediately.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Wiluna, Meekatharra and all adjacent communiites, pastoral stations and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION
People in coastal communities from Dampier to Broome, including the towns of Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson, Port and South Hedland, Marble Bar and Bidyadanga are advised that the wind danger has passed. People in Telfer, Warralong, Yarrie and Yandeyarra are also advised that the wind danger has passed.

Remaining communities in the inland eastern Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for inland parts of the east Pilbara, including Nullagine, Newman and Jigalong, the eastern Gascoyne and the far northern Goldfields including Wiluna.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 22:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
133. HadesGodWyvern
7:30 PM GMT on March 17, 2012
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #6
TROPICAL LOW 17U
5:00 AM EST March 18 2012
================================

At 4:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (991 hPa) located at 17.1S 141.0E or 65 km north of Normanton and 195 km east southeast of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southhwest at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

The TROPICAL LOW located near Karumba is moving westwards. The low is expected to take a more northwesterly track over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters during the morning, where it may develop into a tropical cyclone on Monday.

GALES are expected to develop up to 170 kilometres from the low centre, affecting coastal areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer Monday morning. GALES may develop between Port McArthur, including Borroloola and NT/Qld border late Monday, if the cyclone maintains a westward track.

Heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding is expected about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and adjacent inland areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer.

Water levels on the high tide could also exceed the highest tide of the year about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and islands between Port McArthur and Cape Keerweer.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for Heavy Rain and Abnormally High Tides for northern Cape York Peninsula and for Torres Strait Islands.

People between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 8 am EST [7:30 CST].
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au) - For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

For people in the Northern Territory: The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.7S 140.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 16.4S 140.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 17.4S 139.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 18.4S 139.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.3 degree wrap on log10 spiral, giving DT of 2.0, MET=PT=2.0.

Radar signatures showing system moving westwards in the last 6 hrs. Deep circulation evident on satellite but organization remains poor. The low exists in a moderate shear environment with favorable upper divergence evident on the CIMMS satellite imagery. Favorable sea surface temperatures greater than 30 degrees also exist across the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The low will most likely adopt a northwesterly track during the day as the low falls under the influence of a mid level ridge developing across central Australia, taking the center back over the waters of southern Gulf of Carpentaria.

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 17U from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 22:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
132. HadesGodWyvern
4:11 PM GMT on March 17, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #35
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
11:00 PM WST March 17 2012
===========================

At 11:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Two (983 hPa) located at 22.1S 120.3E or 150 km north northeast of Newman has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 15 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Lua crossed the east Pilbara coast just to the east of Pardoo Station around 3pm WST Saturday. Overnight Lua will continue weakening and moving south through the inland Pilbara.

Gales are occurring in inland areas near Newman and Jigalong and Destructive wind gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour are possible close to the cyclone centre until early Sunday morning.

As the cyclone moves further south, gales may reach the eastern Gascoyne areas, adjacent Interior and possibly the far northern Goldfields on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall in inland parts of the east Pilbara is expected to extend into the eastern Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields overnight and during Sunday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in inland areas of the Pilbara including Nullagine, Newman, Jigalong, Woodie Woodie, Nifty and Moly Mines and all other adjacent mining and pastoral leases need to remain in shelter or go to shelter immediately.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Wiluna, Meekatharra and all adjacent communiites, pastoral stations and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION
People in coastal communities from Dampier to Broome, including the towns of Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson, Port and South Hedland, Marble Bar and Bidyadanga are advised that the wind danger has passed. People in Telfer, Warralong, Yarrie and Yandeyarra are also advised that the wind danger has passed.

Remaining communities in the inland eastern Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for inland parts of the east Pilbara, including Nullagine, Newman and Jigalong, the eastern Gascoyne and the far northern Goldfields including Wiluna.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
131. HadesGodWyvern
3:58 PM GMT on March 17, 2012
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
TROPICAL LOW 17U
1:00 AM EST March 18 2012
================================

At 1:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (991 hPa) located at 17.1S 141.2E or 65 km north northeast of Normanton and 220 km east southeast of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

The TROPICAL LOW over southwestern Cape York Peninsula has began moving southwestwards and is located near Karumba. The low is expected to take a more northwesterly track over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters during Sunday morning, where it may develop into a tropical cyclone overnight on Sunday.

GALES are expected to develop up to 170 kilometres from the low centre, affecting coastal areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer overnight on Sunday. GALES may develop between Port McArthur, including Borroloola and NT/Qld border on Monday, if the cyclone maintains a westward track.

Heavy rain that may lead to flash flooding is expected about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and adjacent inland areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer.

Water levels on the high tide could also exceed the highest tide of the year about the Gulf of Carpentaria coast and islands between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for Heavy Rain and Abnormally High Tides for northern Cape York Peninsula and for Torres Strait Islands.

People between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 5 am EST [4:30 CST].
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

For people in the Northern Territory:
The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border.

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 17U from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
130. seflagamma
3:49 PM GMT on March 17, 2012
Hello HGW,

Happy St Patti's Day!!!

Rainbow image
St Patricks Day Graphics
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40917
129. HadesGodWyvern
1:03 PM GMT on March 17, 2012
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #4
TROPICAL LOW 17U
11:00 PM EST March 17 2012
================================

At 10:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (991 hPa) located at 16.8S 141.5E or 105 km north northeast of Normanton and 245 km east of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving northwest at 1 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

The centre of the TROPICAL LOW is located over land on southwestern Cape York Peninsula. However, the low is expected to move westwards over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters during Sunday, where it may develop into a tropical cyclone overnight on Sunday.

GALES are expected to develop up to 170 kilometres from the low centre, affecting coastal areas between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer overnight on Sunday. GALES may develop between Port McArthur, including Borroloola and NT/Qld border on Monday, if the cyclone maintains a westward track.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for Heavy Rainfall and Abnormally High Tides for parts of the Gulf Country and Peninsula districts.

People between NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should take precautions and listen to the next advice at 2 am EST [1:30 CST].
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

For people in the Northern Territory:
The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal and island communities from NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Port McArthur to NT/Qld Border, including Borroloola.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.4S 140.7E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 16.2S 140.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.8S 138.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 18.1S 138.7E -

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.3 degree wrap on log10 spiral, giving DT of 2.0, MET=1.5 and PT suggest 2.0. FT based DT and PT.

The low exists in a moderate shear environment with favorable upper divergence evident on the CIMMS satellite imagery. Favorable sea surface temperatures greater than 30 degrees also exist across the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The low is located overland on southwestern Cape York Peninsula. However, it is most likely to adopt a westerly track during Sunday as the low falls under the influence of a mid level ridge developing across central Australia, taking the center back over the waters of southern Gulf of Carpentaria.

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 17U from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 16:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
128. HadesGodWyvern
12:41 PM GMT on March 17, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #33
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
8:00 PM WST March 17 2012
===========================

At 8:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Three (971 hPa) located at 21.5S 120.3E or 170 km south southeast of Pardoo 220 km southeast of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 15 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua crossed the east Pilbara coast just to the east of Pardoo Station around 3pm WST Saturday. Overnight Lua will continue weakening and moving south through the inland Pilbara.

Gales are occurring in inland areas south east of Marble Bar.

Very Destructive wind gusts in excess of 165 kilometres per hour are possible near the cyclone centre during the next hour.

As the cyclone moves further inland, gales should reach the eastern Gascoyne areas, adjacent Interior and far northern Goldfields on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall in inland parts of the east Pilbara is expected to extend into the eastern Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields overnight and during Sunday.

Heavy surf conditions along the west Kimberley coast are expected to ease during Sunday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in inland areas of the Pilbara including Marble Bar, Nullagine, Woodie Woodie, Nifty and Moly Mines and all other adjacent mining and pastoral leases need to remain in shelter or go to shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT: People in remaining inland Pilbara communities in and near Newman, Jigalong and adjacent communities, pastoral stations and mining leases need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in or near Wiluna, Meekatharra and all adjacent communiites, pastoral stations and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION
People in coastal communities from Dampier to Broome, including the towns of Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson, Port and South Hedland, Bidyadanga are advised that the wind danger has passed. People in Telfer, Warralong, Yarrie and Yandeyarra are also advised that the wind danger has passed.

Remaining communities in the inland eastern Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for inland parts of the east Pilbara, including Nullagine, Newman and Jigalong, the eastern Gascoyne including Meekatharra and the far northern Goldfields including Wiluna.

The Cyclone Warning for areas near Marble Bar and Yarrie has been cancelled.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
127. HadesGodWyvern
12:30 PM GMT on March 17, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #30
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
6:00 PM WST March 17 2012
===========================

At 6:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Three (962 hPa) located at 20.6S 120.3E or 95 km southeast of Pardoo 180 km east of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 12 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua crossed the east Pilbara coast just to the east of Pardoo Station around 3pm WST Saturday. Overnight Lua will move south through the inland Pilbara as it gradually weakens.

Gales are occurring in coastal areas between De Grey and Bidyadanga and south to inland areas near Marble Bar.

Very Destructive wind gusts in excess of 165 kilometres per hour are likely near the cyclone centre over the next hour or two. Gusts to 180 kilometres per hour are possible over the inland eastern Pilbara, including Marble Bar this evening.

As the cyclone moves further inland, gales should reach the eastern Gascoyne areas, adjacent Interior and far northern Goldfields on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall is expected in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara extending into the eastern Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields later today or on Sunday.

Heavy surf conditions are also expected along the west Kimberley coast.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in coastal communities between Bidyadanga and De Grey, and adjacent inland areas including Marble Bar, Nullagine, Yandeyarra and Warralong, Mining leases at Yarrie, Woodie Woodie, Nifty, Moly Mines, and Telfer and all other adjacent Mining and Pastoral leases need to remain in shelter or go to shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT: People in remaining inland Pilbara communities in and near Newman, Telfer and Jigalong need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION
People in coastal communities between De Grey and Whim Creek, including the towns of Port and South Hedland, and coastal communities between Broome and Bidyadanga are advised that wind danger has passed.

Remaining communities in the inland eastern Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to De Grey, and inland parts of the east Pilbara, including Telfer, Newman and Jigalong, the eastern Gascoyne including Meekatharra and the far northern Goldfields including Wiluna.

The Cyclone warning for coastal areas between Port Hedland and De Grey has been cancelled.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 11:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
126. HadesGodWyvern
7:28 AM GMT on March 17, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #27
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY FOUR (16U)
3:00 PM WST March 17 2012
===========================

At 2:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Four (940 hPa) located at 19.8S 120.0E or 45 km east northeast of Pardoo 150 km east northeast of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 13 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
30 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
170 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
160 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua has now crossed the east Pilbara coast just to the east of Pardoo Station and will move further inland and gradually weaken.

Gales are occurring in coastal areas between Port Hedland and Cape Leveque and will extend further inland during today, and possibly west to Whim Creek.

Destructive winds to 150 kilometres per hour are possible to the east of Port Hedland to Bidyadanga and across the inland eastern Pilbara. Very Destructive winds to 250 kilometres per hour are forecast near the cyclone centre near the coast with gusts to 180 kilometres per hour possible over the inland eastern Pilbara, including Marble Bar this evening.

As the cyclone moves further inland, gales should reach the eastern Gascoyne areas, adjacent Interior and far northern Goldfields on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall is expected in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara extending into the eastern Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields later today or on Sunday.

Residents of the east Pilbara and 80 Mile Beach area, east of but NOT including Port Hedland, are specifically warned of the very dangerous storm tide expected this afternoon. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and very dangerous flooding.

Heavy surf conditions are also expected along the west Kimberley coast.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in coastal communities between Bidyadanga to Port Hedland, including the towns of Port and South Hedland, Marble Bar, Nullagine, and Communities at Yandeyarra and Warralong, Mining leases at Yarrie, Woodie Woodie, Nifty, Moly Mines, and Telfer and all other adjacent Mining and Pastoral leases need to remain in shelter or go to shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT: People in remaining communities between Broome to Bidyadanga and Port Hedland to Whim Creek including the town of Broome, the Town of Newman and the Community at Jigalong, and all adjacent Communities, Pastoral stations and Mining leases need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

ALL CLEAR WITH CAUTION
Dampier to Whim Creek, including the towns of Dampier, Karratha, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Sampson and adjacent Communities and Pastoral and Mining leases are advised that wind danger has passed.

Remaining communities between Broome and Cape Leveque and in the inland eastern Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.


Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Whim Creek, including Port Hedland and Broome, as well as inland parts of the east Pilbara and far west Kimberley, including Telfer, Newman and Jigalong, the eastern Gascoyne including Meekatharra, the far northern Goldfields including Wiluna and the far western Interior.

The Cyclone WARNING from Dampier to Whim Creek has been cancelled.

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 22.9S 120.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 26.3S 120.0E - 35knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
=======================

Severe TC Lua is currently crossing the east Pilbara coast near Pardoo as shown on the Port Hedland radar.

Intensity is estimated at 95 knots [category 4] at the top of the Dvorak 5.5 range although DT is at 5.0 based on IR embedded center pattern [in white] and MET is now at 5.0 as well. The high intensity estimate is also influenced by Rowley Shoals observations earlier today: 938.8hPa at 1am and 75 knot mean winds at 3am. As these are hourly reports, stronger intensities are probable, hence the central pressure is estimated at 932hPa.

Lua has a very large wind field with storm force winds extending about 2 degrees in the northern sector augmented by the strong monsoonal flow. This is generating significant waves north and east of the system.

Lua will weaken as it moves on a general southerly track inland but could still be at cyclone intensity until Sunday afternoon. The system will still cause heavy rain and gusty conditions through parts of southern WA after it weakens below tropical cyclone intensity.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
125. HadesGodWyvern
7:08 AM GMT on March 17, 2012
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
TROPICAL LOW 17U
5:00 PM EST March 17 2012
================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (991 hPa) located at 16.9S 141.6E or 255 km east of Mornington Island and 160 km south of Kowanyama has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving northeast at 1 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D/24 HRS

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours.

The centre of the TROPICAL LOW is located over land on southwestern Cape York Peninsula. However, the low is expected to move back to the west over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters over the next day or two, and may develop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES are expected to develop out to 170 kilometres out from the centre and are possible between the Port McArthur in the NT and Cape Keerweer by Monday morning.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for Heavy Rainfall and Abnormally High Tides for parts of the Gulf Country and Peninsula districts.

People between the Port McArthur in the Northern Territory and Cape Keerweer Queensland should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

For people in the Northern Territory: The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and commence home shelter preparations.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WATCH is current for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from Port McArthur to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.8S 141.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 16.6S 140.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 16.7S 139.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 18.1S 139.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.5 degree wrap on log10 spiral, giving DT of 2.5, MET and PT suggest 2.5. Final Dvorak based DT.

The low exists in a moderate shear environment with favorable upper divergence evident on the CIMMS satellite imagery. Favorable sea surface temperatures greater than 30 degrees also exist across the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The low is located over land on southwestern Cape York Peninsula. However, it is most likely to adopt a westerly track by Sunday as the low falls under the influence of a mid level ridge developing across central Australia, taking the center back over the waters of southern Gulf of Carpentaria. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone by early Monday if this track change occurs.

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 17U from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
124. HadesGodWyvern
4:32 AM GMT on March 17, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #24
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY FOUR (16U)
11:00 AM WST March 17 2012
===========================

At 11:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Four (932 hPa) located at 19.1S 119.8E or 185 km northeast of Port Hedland 285 km west southwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 13 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is approaching the east Pilbara coast, with an expected crossing in the vicinity of Pardoo Station around 2-3pm this afternoon.

Gales are occurring in coastal areas between Port Hedland and Bidyadanga and will extend to adjacent inland areas later today, possibly north to Cape Leveque including Broome and west to Dampier.

Destructive winds to 150 kilometres per hour are possible between Port Hedland and Bidyadanga extending to the inland eastern Pilbara later in the day. Very Destructive winds to 250 kilometres per hour are forecast near the cyclone centre as it crosses the coast.

As the cyclone moves further inland, gales should reach the eastern Gascoyne areas, adjacent Interior and far northern Goldfields on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall is expected in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara, west Kimberley extending into the eastern Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields later today and during Sunday.

Residents of the east Pilbara and 80 Mile Beach area, east of but NOT including Port Hedland, are specifically warned of the very dangerous storm tide expected this afternoon. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and very dangerous flooding.

Heavy surf conditions are also expected along the west Kimberley coast.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in coastal communities between Bidyadanga and Port Hedland, including Wallal, 80 Mile Beach, Sandfire, Pardoo, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Warralong, Yandeyarra and surrounding Pastoral and Mining leases need to go to shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT: People in remaining communities between Broome and Whim Creek including the Town of Broome, Marble Bar, Telfer, Nullagine, Woodie Woodie, and adjacent pastoral and mining leases need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Whim Creek and Dampier including Karratha, Dampier, Roebourne, Wickham and Point Samson as well as inland communities including Newman and Jigalong and surrounding pastoral and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Remaining communities between Broome and Cape Leveque and in the inland eastern Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Dampier, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as inland parts of the east Pilbara and far west Kimberley, including Telfer, Newman and Jigalong, the eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and the far western Interior including Three Rivers and Wiluna.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for parts of the eastern Gascoyne and the northern Goldfields including Meekatharra and Leinster.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
123. HadesGodWyvern
1:46 AM GMT on March 17, 2012
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
9:00 AM FST March 16 2012
=======================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 14F (1005 hPa) located at 24.2S 169.7E is reported as slow moving. Position fair based on multisatellite visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Low level circulation center partially exposed with deep convection displaced to the east. Cyclonic circulation extends to 700 HPA. TD 14F lies to the east of an upper trough in a high sheared environment.

Most global models have picked up this system and are moving it in a southeasterly direction with slight intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is LOW.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
122. HadesGodWyvern
1:29 AM GMT on March 17, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #22
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY FOUR (16U)
9:00 AM WST March 17 2012
===========================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Four (932 hPa) located at 18.6S 119.6E or 215 km north northeast of Port Hedland 290 km west southwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 13 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
160 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
110 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
130 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is intensifying as it moves steadily towards the east Pilbara coast, with an expected crossing during Saturday afternoon in the vicinity of Pardoo Station.

Gales are occurring in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Bidyadanga including Port Hedland, and may extending to adjacent inland areas and north to Cape Leveque including Broome, and possibly west to Dampier later this morning.

Destructive winds to 150 kilometres per hour are possible between Port Hedland and Bidyadanga from late this morning extending to the inland eastern Pilbara later in the day. Very Destructive winds to 270 kilometres per hour are forecast near the cyclone centre as it crosses the coast.

As the cyclone moves further inland, gales should reach the eastern Gascoyne areas, adjacent Interior and far northern Goldfields on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall is expected in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara, west Kimberley extending into the eastern Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields later on Saturday and during Sunday.

Residents of the east Pilbara and 80 Mile Beach area, east of but NOT including Port Hedland, are specifically warned of the very dangerous storm tide expected this afternoon. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and very dangerous flooding.

Heavy surf conditions are also expected along the west Kimberley coast during Saturday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in coastal communities between Bidyadanga and Port Hedland, including Wallal, 80 Mile Beach, Sandfire, Pardoo, Port Hedland and South Hedland need to go to shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT: People in remaining communities between Broome and Whim Creek including Broome, Telfer, Nullagine, Warralong, Yande Yarra, Marble Bar and adjacent pastoral and mining leases need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Whim Creek and Dampier including Karratha, Dampier, Roebourne, Wickham and Point Samson as well as inland communities including Woodie Woodie, Newman and Jigalong and surrounding pastoral and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Remaining communities between Broome and Cape Leveque and in the inland eastern Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Dampier, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as inland parts of the east Pilbara and far west Kimberley, including Telfer, Newman and Jigalong, the eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and the far western Interior including Three Rivers and Wiluna.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for parts of the eastern Gascoyne and the northern Goldfields including Meekatharra and Leinster.

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 21.4S 120.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 24.8S 120.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 30.6S 121.5E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 31.2S 127.3E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Severe TC Lua continues to intensify as it tracks southeast towards an expected crossing on the east Pilbara coast this afternoon in the vicinity of Pardoo Station. Position is based on Port Hedland radar.

Intensity is estimated of 95 knots [category 4]. Inputs to this decision are Dvorak embedded center pattern [in white] on enhanced IR to give DT=5.0 while MET=5.5 and FT/CI=5.5 considering an eye is almost discernible on enhanced infrared. Microwave imagery shows the eye wall has consolidated and with shear remaining on the order of 10kn [and now shifting to the NE]. Also, Rowley Shoals reported 938.8hPa at 1am and 75 kn mean winds at 3am and as these are hourly reports, stronger intensities are probable, hence the central pressure is estimated at 932hPa.

Lua has a very large wind field with storm force winds extending about 2 degrees in the northern sector augmented by the strong monsoonal flow. This is generating significant waves north and east of the system.

Lua may intensify further to landfall as it takes a more south southeast track to landfall, and then weaken overland. The system is likely to maintain TC intensity into Sunday as it moves south over inland parts of WA, and even after it weakens technically below cyclone intensity later on Sunday, the remains will still cause heavy rain and gusty conditions through the Goldfields of southeastern Western Australia.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 4:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
121. HadesGodWyvern
1:18 AM GMT on March 17, 2012
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
TROPICAL LOW 17U
11:00 AM EST March 17 2012
================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (994 hPa) located at 17.0S 141.5E or 245 km east of Mornington Island and 170 km south of Kowanyamahas 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east southeast at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.5/24 HRS

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours.

The centre of the TROPICAL LOW has been relocated further east, over land on southwestern Cape York Peninsula. However, the low is expected to move back to the west over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters over the next day or two, and may develop into a tropical cyclone.

GALES are expected to develop out to 170 kilometres out from the centre and are possible between the NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer by Monday morning.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for Heavy Rainfall and Abnormally High Tides for parts of the Gulf Country and Peninsula districts.

People between the NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's DisasterManagement Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands.

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.8S 141.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 16.2S 141.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS: 16.2S 140.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 17.3S 139.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
======================

REMARKS:
Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with 0.7 degree wrap on log10 spiral, giving DT of 3.0. MET and PT suggest 2.5. Final Dvorak based on constraints.

The low exists in a low to moderate shear environment with favorable upper divergence evident on the CIMMS satellite imagery. Favorable sea surface temperatures greater than 30 degrees also exist across the Gulf of Carpentaria.

The low has been relocated further east over land on southwestern Cape York Peninsula. However, it is most likely to adopt a northwesterly track by Sunday as the low falls under the influence of a mid level ridge developing across central Australia, taking the center back over the waters of southern Gulf of Carpentaria. The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone by early Monday if this track change occurs.

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low 17U from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
120. HadesGodWyvern
10:23 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #1
TROPICAL LOW 17U
7:58 AM EST March 17 2012
================================

At 7:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (994 hPa) located at 16.6S 140.8E or 170 kilometres east of Mornington Island and 160 kilometres southwest of Kowanyama has 10 minute sustained winds of 25-30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east northeast at 8 knots.

The low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours.

The TROPICAL LOW is expected to develop further over the next couple of days and become slow moving over southern Gulf of Carpentaria waters today.

GALES are expected to develop out to 170 kilometres out from the centre and are possible between the NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer by Monday morning.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for Heavy Rainfall and Abnormally High Tides for parts of the Gulf Country and Peninsula districts.

People between the NT/Qld border and Cape Keerweer should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster

Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for a developing tropical low for coastal areas from NT/Qld Border to Cape Keerweer, including Mornington and Sweers Islands

Next tropical cyclone advice on Tropical Low from Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
119. HadesGodWyvern
10:16 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #21
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY FOUR (16U)
6:00 AM WST March 17 2012
===========================

At 5:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Four (942 hPa) located at 18.0S 119.1E or 260 km north northeast of Port Hedland 330 km west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 10 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is intensifying as it moves steadily towards the east Pilbara coast, with an expected crossing during Saturday afternoon.

Gales are expected in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Bidyadanga including Port Hedland, extending during Saturday morning to adjacent inland areas and north to Cape Leveque including Broome, and possibly west to Dampier.

Destructive winds to 160 kilometres per hour are possible between Port Hedland and Bidyadanga extending to the inland eastern Pilbara later in the day. Very Destructive winds up to 230 kilometres per hour are forecast near the cyclone centre.

As the cyclone moves further inland, gales should reach eastern Gascoyne areas, adjacent Interior and far northern Goldfields on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara, extending into the east Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields later on Saturday and during Sunday.

Residents of Port Hedland and east to Bidyadanga are specifically warned of the very dangerous storm tide expected as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and very dangerous flooding.

Heavy surf conditions are also expected along the west Kimberley coast during Saturday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in coastal communities between Wallal and Port Hedland, including Wallal, 80 Mile Beach, Sandfire, Pardoo, Port Hedland and South Hedland need to go to shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT: People in remaining communities between Broome and Whim Creek including Bidyadanga, Warralong, Yande Yarra, Marble Bar and adjacent pastoral and mining leases need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Whim Creek and Dampier including Karratha, Dampier, Roebourne, Wickham and Point Samson as well as inland communities including Telfer, Woodie Woodie, Nullagine, Newman and Jigalong and surrounding pastoral and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Remaining communities between Broome and Cape Leveque and in the inland eastern Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Dampier, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as inland parts of the east Pilbara and far west Kimberley, including Telfer, Newman and Jigalong.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for parts of the central and eastern inland Pilbara, the eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and the far western Interior including Three Rivers, Meekatharra and Wiluna.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
118. HadesGodWyvern
7:22 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #20
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
3:00 AM WST March 17 2012
===========================

At 2:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Three (954 hPa) located at 17.6S 118.8E or 300 km north of Port Hedland 365 km west of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 11 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
240 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
240 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is intensifying as it moves steadily towards the east Pilbara coast, with an expected crossing during Saturday afternoon.

Gales are expected in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Bidyadanga including Port Hedland, extending during Saturday morning to adjacent inland areas and north to Cape Leveque including Broome, and possibly west to Dampier.

Destructive winds to 160 kilometres per hour are possible between Port Hedland and Bidyadanga after sunrise extending to the inland eastern Pilbara later in the day. Very Destructive winds up to 230 kilometres per hour are forecast near the cyclone centre.

As the cyclone moves further inland, gales should reach eastern Gascoyne areas, adjacent Interior and far northern Goldfields on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara, extending into the east Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields later on Saturday and during Sunday.

Residents of Port Hedland and east to Bidyadanga are specifically warned of the very dangerous storm tide expected as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and very dangerous flooding.

Heavy surf conditions are also expected along the west Kimberley coast during Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Dampier, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as inland parts of the east Pilbara and far west Kimberley, including Telfer, Newman and Jigalong.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for parts of the central and eastern inland Pilbara, the eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and the far western Interior including Three Rivers, Meekatharra and Wiluna.


Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 19.6S 120.2E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 22.6S 120.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 28.3S 120.7E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 31.0S 128.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Severe TC Lua has remained steady at 80 knots for the last 3 hours as it continues to track east southeast towards the east Pilbara coast. Position is based on recent IR and microwave imagery, with indications on Port Hedland RADAR, albeit at extreme range.

Dvorak analysis of embedded center yields DT of 5.0, MET is 5.5 based on a trend of D, PAT of 4.5 resulting in an Final Dvorak of 5.0. SATCON at 12Z indicates 1min winds of 93 knots with AMSU estimates running at 100 knots 1 min mean.

Microwave imagery from TMI at 1515Z is indicating improved convective structure with a well defined eye at 85-89 GHz. Final intensity estimate 80 knots 10 min mean but is expected to increase further in the short term.

SSMIS imagery indicates intensification, and this trend is expected to continue. The system could reach 90 knots prior to landfall. The system is likely to maintain TC intensity until Sunday afternoon as it moves over inland parts of Western Australia.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 22:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
117. HadesGodWyvern
4:26 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #19
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
11:00 PM WST March 16 2012
===========================

At 11:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Three (954 hPa) located at 17.2S 118.4E or 345 km north of Port Hedland 415 km west northwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 12 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is intensifying as it moves steadily towards the east Pilbara coast, with an expected crossing during Saturday.

Gales are expected to develop early Saturday morning in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Bidyadanga including Port Hedland, extending during the morning to adjacent inland areas and north to Cape Leveque including Broome, and possibly west to Dampier.

Destructive winds to 160 kilometres per hour are possible between Port Hedland and Bidyadanga after sunrise extending to the inland eastern Pilbara later in the day. Very Destructive winds up to 230 kilometres per hour are forecast near the cyclone centre.

As the cyclone moves further inland, gales should reach eastern Gascoyne areas, adjacent Interior and far northern Goldfields on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara, extending into the east Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields later on Saturday and during Sunday.

Residents of Port Hedland and east to Bidyadanga are specifically warned of the very dangerous storm tide expected as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and very dangerous flooding.

Heavy surf conditions are also expected along the west Kimberley coast during Saturday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in coastal communities between Wallal and Port Hedland, including Wallal, 80 Mile Beach, Sandfire, Pardoo, Port Hedland and South Hedland need to go to shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT: People in remaining communities between Broome and Whim Creek including Bidyadanga, Warralong, Yande Yarra, Marble Bar and adjacent pastoral and mining leases need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Whim Creek and Dampier including Karratha, Dampier, Roebourne, Wickham and Point Samson as well as inland communities including Nullagine, Newman and Jigalong and surrounding pastoral and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Remaining communities between Broome and Cape Leveque and in the inland eastern Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua at 11:00 pm WST

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Dampier, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as inland parts of the eastern Pilbara and far western Kimberley, including Telfer, Newman and Jigalong.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for parts of the central and eastern inland Pilbara, the eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and the far western Interior including Three Rivers, Meekatharra and Wiluna.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 19:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
116. HadesGodWyvern
4:20 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #18
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
10:00 PM WST March 16 2012
===========================

At 8:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Three (958 hPa) located at 16.9S 117.7E or 390 km north northwest of Port Hedland 495 km west northwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 10 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is intensifying as it moves steadily towards the east Pilbara coast, with an expected crossing during Saturday.

Gales are expected to develop early Saturday morning in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Bidyadanga including Port Hedland, extending during the morning to adjacent inland areas and north to Cape Leveque including Broome, and possibly west to Dampier.

Destructive winds to 160 kilometres per hour are possible between Port Hedland and Bidyadanga after sunrise extending to the inland eastern Pilbara later in the day. Very Destructive winds up to 230 kilometres per hour are forecast near the cyclone centre.

As the cyclone moves further inland, gales should reach eastern Gascoyne areas, adjacent Interior and far northern Goldfields on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara, extending into the east Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields later on Saturday and during Sunday.

Residents of Port Hedland and east to Bidyadanga are specifically warned of the very dangerous storm tide expected as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and very dangerous flooding.

Heavy surf conditions are also expected along the west Kimberley coast during Saturday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

RED ALERT: People in coastal communities between Wallal and Port Hedland, including Wallal, 80 Mile Beach, Sandfire, Pardoo, Port Hedland and South Hedland need to go to shelter immediately.

YELLOW ALERT: People in remaining communities between Broome and Whim Creek including Bidyadanga, Warralong, Yande Yarra, Marble Bar and adjacent pastoral and mining leases need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Whim Creek and Dampier including Karratha, Dampier, Roebourne, Wickham and Point Samson as well as inland communities including Nullagine, Newman and Jigalong and surrounding pastoral and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Remaining communities between Broome and Cape Leveque and in the inland eastern Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.

This FLASH advice issued to update WA State Emergency Service Community Alerts.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Dampier, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as inland parts of the eastern Pilbara and far western Kimberley, including Telfer, Newman and Jigalong.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for parts of the central and eastern inland Pilbara, the eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and the far western Interior including Three Rivers, Meekatharra and Wiluna.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 16:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
115. HadesGodWyvern
4:14 PM GMT on March 16, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #16
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
9:00 PM WST March 16 2012
===========================

At 8:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Three (958 hPa) located at 16.9S 117.7E or 390 km north northwest of Port Hedland 495 km west northwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
90 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
240 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
240 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is intensifying as it moves steadily towards the east Pilbara coast, with an expected crossing during Saturday.

Gales are expected to develop early Saturday morning in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Bidyadanga including Port Hedland, extending during the morning to adjacent inland areas and north to Cape Leveque including Broome, and possibly west to Dampier.

Destructive winds to 160 kilometres per hour are possible between Port Hedland and Bidyadanga after sunrise extending to the inland eastern Pilbara later in the day. Very Destructive winds up to 230 kilometres per hour are forecast near the cyclone centre.

As the cyclone moves further inland, gales should reach eastern Gascoyne areas, adjacent Interior and far northern Goldfields on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara, extending into the east Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields later on Saturday and during Sunday.

Residents of Port Hedland and east to Bidyadanga are specifically warned of the very dangerous storm tide expected as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and very dangerous flooding.

Heavy surf conditions are also expected along the west Kimberley coast during Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Dampier, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as inland parts of the eastern Pilbara and far western Kimberley, including Telfer, Newman and Jigalong.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for parts of the central and eastern inland Pilbara, the eastern Gascoyne, far northern Goldfields and the far western Interior including Three Rivers, Meekatharra and Wiluna.

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 18.0S 119.5E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 20.7S 120.4E - 65 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 27.0S 120.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 30.2S 125.9E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Severe TC Lua has remained steady at 75 knots for the last 6 hours as it continues to track east southeast towards the east Pilbara coast. Position is based on recent IR and microwave imagery.

Dvorak analysis of embedded centre yields DT of 5.0, MET is 4.5 based on a trend of D-, PAT of 4.5 resulting in an FT of 4.5. SATCON at 08Z indicates 1min winds of 91 knots with AMSU estimates running at over 90 knots 1 min mean.

Microwave imagery from SSMIS at 1030Z is indicating improved convective structure with a well defined eye at 89 GHz. Final intensity estimate remains at 75 knots 10 min mean but is expected to increase in the short term.

SSMIS imagery indicates intensification, and this trend is expected to continue. The system could reach 90 knots prior to landfall. The system is likely to maintain TC intensity until Sunday afternoon as it moves over inland parts of WA.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
114. HadesGodWyvern
11:28 AM GMT on March 16, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #15
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
6:00 PM WST March 16 2012
===========================

At 5:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Three (960 hPa) located at 16.8S 117.2E or 440 km north of Karratha 415 km north northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 10 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is intensifying as it moves steadily towards the east Pilbara coast, with an expected crossing during Saturday.

Gales are expected to develop early Saturday morning in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Bidyadanga including Port Hedland, extending during the morning to adjacent inland areas and north to Cape Leveque including Broome, and possibly west to Dampier.

Destructive winds to 160 kilometres per hour are possible between Whim Creek and Bidyadanga after sunrise extending to the inland eastern Pilbara later in the day, while Very Destructive winds up to 230 kilometres per hour are forecast near the cyclone centre.

As the cyclone moves further inland, gales should reach eastern Gascoyne areas and adjacent Interior on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara, extending into the east Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields later on Saturday and during Sunday.

Residents of Port Hedland and east to Bidyadanga are specifically warned of the very dangerous storm tide expected as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and very dangerous flooding.

Heavy surf conditions are also expected along the west Kimberley coast during Saturday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

YELLOW ALERT: People in communities between Broome and Whim Creek including Bidyadanga, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Warralong, Yande Yarra, Marble Bar and adjacent pastoral and mining leases need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Whim Creek and Dampier including Karratha, Dampier, Roebourne, Wickham and Point Samson as well as inland communities including Nullagine, Newman and Jigalong and surrounding pastoral and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Remaining communities between Broome and Cape Leveque and in the inland eastern Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Dampier, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as inland parts of the eastern Pilbara and far western Kimberley.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for the central and eastern inland Pilbara including Telfer, Newman and Paraburdoo, the western inland Kimberley, the eastern Gascoyne including Meekatharra, and the far western Interior.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 13:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
113. HadesGodWyvern
11:21 AM GMT on March 16, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #14
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
3:00 PM WST March 16 2012
===========================

At 2:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Three (960 hPa) located at 16.6S 116.8E or 460 km north of Karratha 455 km north northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 11 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
110 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
230 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is intensifying as it moves steadily towards the east Pilbara coast, with an expected crossing during Saturday.

Gales are expected to develop early Saturday morning in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Bidyadanga including Port Hedland, extending during the morning to adjacent inland areas and north to Cape Leveque including Broome, and possibly west to Dampier.

Destructive winds to 160 kilometres per hour are possible between Whim Creek and Bidyadanga after sunrise extending to the inland eastern Pilbara later in the day, while Very Destructive winds in excess of 200 kilometres per hour are forecast near the cyclone centre.

As the cyclone moves further inland, gales should reach eastern Gascoyne areas and adjacent Interior on Sunday morning.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara, extending into the east Gascoyne, western Interior and northern Goldfields later on Saturday and during Sunday.

Residents of Port Hedland and east to Bidyadanga are specifically warned of the very dangerous storm tide expected as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and very dangerous flooding.

Heavy surf conditions are also expected along the west Kimberley coast during Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Dampier, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as inland parts of the eastern Pilbara and far western Kimberley.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for the central and eastern inland Pilbara including Telfer, Newman and Paraburdoo, the western inland Kimberley, the eastern Gascoyne including Meekatharra, and the far western Interior.

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 17.7S 118.5E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 19.9S 119.9E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 26.2S 119.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 30.1S 123.1E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Severe TC Lua continues to intensify as it tracks southeast towards an expected crossing on the east Pilbara coast on Saturday. Position is based on recent visible imagery combined with earlier microwave passes.

Intensity of 75 knots based on Dvorak analysis based on a ragged eye on visible imagery [3/4 deg sized central dense overcast] DT=4.5 and embedded center in white on IR [DT=5.0] give a DT of 4.5 consistent with MET 4.5 based on a trend of D-. Intensity is consistent with ADT although latest AMSU estimate is higher.

Lua has a very large wind field with storm force winds extending about 2 degrees in the northern sector augmented by the strong monsoonal flow. This is generating significant waves north and east of the system.

Lua should take a general southeast track towards the coast becoming more southerly upon landfall, however being such a strong and asymmetric system, short term fluctuations in the track are likely [known as trachoidal oscillations].

A period of further intensification is forecast with low wind shear [-10 knots at 00Z]. As the systems nears landfall on Saturday the shear increases as upper northwesterlies increase but this is not expected to weaken the cyclone prior to landfall. The system is likely to maintain TC intensity into Sunday morning as it moves over inland parts of WA.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 10:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
112. HadesGodWyvern
5:31 AM GMT on March 16, 2012
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
FORECAST NORTHERN TERRITORY AREA BETWEEN 125E-142E
2:15 pm CST March 16 2012
================================================= ===

A Tropical Low, 1000 hPa, is located near 16.9S 136.0E, about 100 km south southwest of Borroloola at 9:30am CST on 16th March, moving to the east at approximately 15 km/h. The low is expected to continue moving east and may develop into a tropical cyclone as it moves into the southeast Gulf of Carpentaria.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=======================

Saturday: Low
Sunday: Moderate
Monday: Moderate
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
111. HadesGodWyvern
4:23 AM GMT on March 16, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #13
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
12:00 PM WST March 16 2012
===========================

At 11:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Three (963 hPa) located at 16.2S 115.9E or 475 km north of Karratha 490 km north northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 11 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua is moving steadily towards the east Pilbara coast.

Gales are currently being experienced in offshore Pilbara waters and are expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Bidyadanga late Friday night. Very destructive winds with wind gusts in excess of 200 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal areas near the centre of the cyclone during Saturday. Gales are expected to extend to remaining coastal areas between Cape Leveque and Mardie and to inland eastern Pilbara areas during Saturday.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara. During Saturday and Sunday areas of heavy rain are likely in the east Gascoyne and northern Goldfields.

Residents of Port Hedland and east to Bidyadanga are specifically warned of the very dangerous storm tide expected as the cyclone centre approaches the coast. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with damaging waves and very dangerous flooding.

Heavy surf conditions are also expected along the west Kimberley coast during Saturday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

YELLOW ALERT: People in coastal communities between Wallal and Whim Creek including Port Hedland, South Hedland, Warralong, Marble Bar and adjacent pastoral and mining leases need to take action and get ready to shelter from a cyclone.

BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Broome and Wallal and between Whim Creek and Mardie including Karratha, Dampier, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Bidyadanga and Broome as well as inland communities including Nullagine, Newman and Jigalong and surrounding pastoral and mining leases need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Remaining communities between Broome and Cape Leveque and in the inland eastern Pilbara, east Gascoyne and western Interior should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as adjacent inland parts of the eastern Pilbara.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for the central and eastern inland Pilbara including Telfer, Newman and Paraburdoo, the far western inland Kimberley, the eastern Gascoyne including Meekatharra, and the far western Interior.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
110. HadesGodWyvern
1:24 AM GMT on March 16, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #12
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY THREE (16U)
9:00 AM WST March 16 2012
===========================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Three (968 hPa) located at 16.2S 115.9E or 515 km north northwest of Karratha 540 km north northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 11 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Lua has intensified to a severe tropical cyclone and is now moving towards the east Pilbara coast.

Gales are currently being experienced in offshore Pilbara waters and are expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Bidyadanga late Friday night. Very destructive winds with wind gusts in excess of 170 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal areas near the centre of the cyclone during Saturday. Gales are expected to extend to remaining coastal areas between Cape Leveque and Mardie during Saturday and then to inland eastern Pilbara areas later on Saturday.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara. During Saturday and Sunday areas of heavy rain are likely in the east Gascoyne and northern Goldfields.

Heavy surf conditions are expected along the east Pilbara and west Kimberley coast during Friday and Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as adjacent inland parts of the eastern Pilbara.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for the central and eastern inland Pilbara including Telfer, Newman and Paraburdoo, the far western inland Kimberley, the eastern Gascoyne including Meekatharra, and the far western Interior.

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 17.3S 117.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 19.0S 119.4E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 24.7S 119.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 30.6S 121.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Position is based on recent microwave passes.

Dvorak analysis based on embedded center give a DT of 4.5 consistent with MET 4.5 based on a trend of D-. Final intensity estimate is 65 knots 10-min mean while ADT/AMSU intensity estimate is 70 knots.

Shear has begun to decrease [-10 knots at 18Z] and the system is heading into an area of lighter shear during the day. Conditions are favorable for further development during Friday with the system expected to remain a severe tropical cyclone until landfall along the east Pilbara coast during Saturday. Shear increases as upper northwesterlies increase over the system during Saturday but this may not occur in time to weaken the cyclone prior to landfall. The system is likely to maintain TC intensity into Sunday morning as it moves over inland parts of Western Australia.

There is very good general agreement across model guidance for a coastal crossing on Saturday, although the timing of this varies somewhat.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 4:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
109. HadesGodWyvern
11:35 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #11
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
6:00 AM WST March 16 2012
===========================

At 5:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Two (970 hPa) located at 15.8S 115.0E or 580 km north northwest of Karratha 630 km northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 11 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Lua has begun to move towards the southeast and it is expected to accelerate towards the east Pilbara coast during Friday. Lua is expected to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone during this morning and remain severe through to landfall.

Gales are expected to develop between Mardie and Cape Leveque by late Friday or early Saturday. Very destructive winds with gusts in excess of 170 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal areas near the centre of the cyclone during Saturday. Gales are expected to extend inland through the central and eastern Pilbara and into the northeast Gascoyne and far northwest Interior during Saturday and early Sunday.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara. During Saturday and Sunday areas of heavy rain are likely in the east Gascoyne and northern Goldfields.

Heavy surf conditions are expected along the east Pilbara and west Kimberley coast during Friday and Saturday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Broome and Mardie including Karratha, Dampier, Roebourne, Wickham, Point Samson, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Pardoo, Wallal, Bidyadanga and Broome need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Remaining communities between Broome and Cape Leveque and in the inland eastern Pilbara should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as adjacent inland parts of the eastern Pilbara.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for the central and eastern inland Pilbara including Telfer, Newman and Paraburdoo, the far western inland Kimberley, the eastern Gascoyne including Meekatharra, and the far western Interior.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
108. HadesGodWyvern
7:33 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
3:00 AM WST March 16 2012
===========================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Two (970 hPa) located at 15.6S 114.5E or 620 km north northwest of Karratha 680 km northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 9 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: TT4.0/4.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Lua has begun to move towards the southeast and it is expected to accelerate towards the east Pilbara coast during Friday. Lua is expected to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone during this morning and remain severe through to landfall.

Gales are expected to develop between Mardie and Cape Leveque by late Friday or early Saturday. Very destructive winds with gusts in excess of 170 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal areas near the centre of the cyclone during Saturday. Gales are expected to extend inland through the central and eastern Pilbara and into the northeast Gascoyne and far northwest Interior during Saturday and early Sunday.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara. During Saturday and Sunday areas of heavy rain are likely in the east Gascoyne and northern Goldfields.

Heavy surf conditions are expected along the east Pilbara and west Kimberley coast during Friday and Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier and Broome, as well as adjacent inland parts of the eastern Pilbara.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for the central and eastern inland Pilbara including Telfer, Newman and Paraburdoo, the far western inland Kimberley, the northeastern Gascoyne and the far northwestern Interior.

Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 16.8S 116.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 18.1S 118.4E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 23.1S 120.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 29.5S 120.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Position is based on 1352 AM UTC AMSUB and 1610 AM UTC microwave pass as well as enhanced infrared satellite imagery.

Dvorak analysis on late afternoon visible imagery yielded curved band wrap of around 1.2 giving a DT of 4.0. Recent enhanced infrared imagery have shown a possible ragged eye, but this still yields a DT of 4.0. MET is 4.0 based on a trend of D-, PAT is 4.0 and FT is set to 4.0. ADT is running low at T3.2 with a relatively poor final position. CIMMS AMSU is estimating 72 knot 1-min mean winds, which seems a little high given the microwave still does not show a closed eye feature.

Final intensity estimate remains at 60 knots 10-min mean.

At 12Z CIMMS shear analysis indicated the shear had increased slightly to 15 knots. Shear is expected to reduce during Friday and become very favorable for development together with strong upper divergence as an upper trough approaches. This will be followed by unfavorable shear as upper northwesterlies increase over the system but this may not occur in time to weaken the cyclone prior to landfall on Saturday.

There is very good general agreement across model guidance for a coastal crossing on Saturday, although the timing of this varies somewhat.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 22:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
107. HadesGodWyvern
1:06 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
9:00 PM WST March 15 2012
===========================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Two (970 hPa) located at 15.3S 113.6E or 700 km north northwest of Karratha 770 km northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east northeast at 3 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
180 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
180 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Lua has moved slowly over the last few hours but will accelerate towards the east Pilbara coast during Friday. Lua is expected to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone overnight and remain severe through to landfall.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas overnight, but gales are expected to develop between Mardie and Bidyadanga by early Saturday. Very destructive winds with wind gusts in excess of 170 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal areas near the centre of the cyclone during Saturday. Gales are expected to extend to coastal areas between Cape Leveque and Bidayadanga during Saturday and then to inland eastern Pilbara areas later on Saturday.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara. During Saturday and Sunday areas of heavy rain are likely in the east Gascoyne and northern Goldfields.

Heavy surf conditions are expected along the east Pilbara and west Kimberley coast during Friday and Saturday.


Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Bidyadanga including Broome, and the eastern inland Pilbara including Newman and Telfer.


Forecast and Intensity
===============

12 HRS: 16.2S 115.1E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 17.4S 117.1E - 85 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 21.6S 120.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 28.4S 119.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================

Position is based on 10:41 AM UTC SSMIS microwave pass.

Dvorak analysis on late afternoon visible imagery yielded curved band wrap of around 1.2 giving a DT of 4.0. MET is 4.0 based on a trend of D-, PAT is 4.0 and FT is set to 4.0. ADT is running low at T3.2 with a relatively poor final position. Both CIMMS and CIRA AMSU are estimating over 80 knot 1-min mean winds, which seems high given the microwave still does not show a closed eye feature.

Final intensity estimate is set to 60 knots 10-min mean.

At 06Z CIMMS shear analysis indicated the shear had dropped slightly to 12 knots. Shear is expected to further reduce during Friday and become very favorable for development together with strong upper divergence as an upper trough approaches. This will be followed by unfavorable shear as upper northwesterlies increase over the system but this may not occur in time to weaken the cyclone prior to landfall on Saturday.

There is very good general agreement across model guidance for a coastal crossing on Saturday, although the timing of this varies somewhat.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 16:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583
106. HadesGodWyvern
12:55 PM GMT on March 15, 2012
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Advice #7
TROPICAL CYCLONE LUA, CATEGORY TWO (16U)
6:00 PM WST March 15 2012
===========================

At 5:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Lua, Category Two (970 hPa) located at 15.7S 113.4E or 670 km north northwest of Karratha 750 km northwest of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary.

Lua has moved slowly over the last few hours but will accelerate towards the east Pilbara coast during Friday. Lua is expected to intensify into a severe tropical cyclone tonight and remain severe through to landfall.

Gales are not expected in coastal areas overnight, but gales are expected to develop between Mardie and Bidyadanga by early Saturday. Very destructive winds with wind gusts in excess of 170 kilometres per hour are likely to develop in coastal areas near the centre of the cyclone during Saturday. Gales are expected to extend to coastal areas between Cape Leveque and Bidayadanga during Saturday and then to inland eastern Pilbara areas later on Saturday.

Heavy rainfall is expected near the west Kimberley coast and in coastal and inland parts of the east Pilbara. During Saturday and Sunday areas of heavy rain are likely in the east Gascoyne and northern Goldfields.

Heavy surf conditions are expected along the west Kimberley coast during Friday and Saturday.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:

BLUE ALERT: People in coastal communities between Broome and Mardie including Karratha, Dampier, Roebourne, Wickham, Port Hedland, South Hedland, Pardoo, Wallal, Bidyadanga and Broome need to prepare for cyclonic weather and organise an emergency kit including first aid kit, torch, portable radio, spare batteries, food and water.

Remaining communities between Bidyadanga and Cape Leveque and in the inland eastern Pilbara should listen for the next advice.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=================================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Bidyadanga to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Bidyadanga including Broome, and the eastern inland Pilbara including Newman and Telfer.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin on Tropical Cyclone Lua from the Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at 13:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 45583

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