January 1 2012 - March 1 2012

By: HadesGodWyvern , 8:12 PM GMT on December 31, 2011

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Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon 2012 season
=================================================
Information used for this blog are from

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

-----------------
Northwestern Pacific
-----------------
Japan Meteorological Agency: Tokyo
Hong Kong Observatory: China
Typhoon 2000: Philippines
PAGASA: Manila, Philippines

------------------
Northern Indian Ocean
--------------------
India Meteorological Department: New Delphi
Thailand Meteorological Department

------------------------
Northeastern Pacific Ocean
------------------------
National Hurricane Center: Miami, FL

-------------------------
Central Northeastern Pacific
----------------------------
Central Pacific Hurricane Center: Honolulu, Hawaii

---------------------------
Southern Indian Ocean
---------------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta: Indonesia
Mauritius Meteorological Service
Reunion Regional Specialized Meteorological Center

--------------------------
Southern Pacific Ocean
-----------------------
Bureau of Meteorology Australia
Fiji Meteorological Services: Nadi
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center: Wellington

=========================================

CURRENT ACTIVE STORMS IN THE WORLD



------------------------------------------------- --- ----

========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January

TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1008 hPa
TROPICAL DEPRESSION - 1006 hPa

February
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W - 1004 hPa



-------------------------------------------------

-------------------------------------------------
========================
North Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

Jaunary

Next ID BOB01/ARB01

------------------------------------------------- --

=======================
Southeastern Pacific Ocean
=======================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Nadi Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January
02F.NONAME - 1002 hPa
03F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
04F.NONAME - 1000 hPa
05F.NONAME - 1000 hPa
06F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
07F.NONAME - 994 hPa
08F.NONAME - 1001 hPa
09F.NONAME - 999 hPa

February
10F.NONAME - 991 hPa
11F.Cyril - 985 hPa
12F.Jasmine - 945 hPa (Within RSMC)
13F.NONAME - 1005 hPa

------------------------------------------------- --

==========================
Southwestern Pacific Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Bureau of Meteorology

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January
05U.NONAME

February
12U.Jasmine - 978 hPa (moved east of 160E)


------------------------------------------------- ---


==========================
Southeastern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Bureau of Meteorology

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January

06U.NONAME
07U.Heidi - 975 hPa
11U.Iggy - 970 hPa

------------------------------------------------- -----

==========================
Southwestern Indian Ocean
==========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Mauritius Meteorological Services
Seychelles Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

January
04R.Benilde - 968 hPa
05R.Chanda - 996 hPa
06R.Dando - 990 hPa
07R.Ethel - 988 hPa
08R.Funso - 936 hPa

February
09R.Giovanna - 932 hPa
10R.Hilwa - 993 hPa
11R.IRINA - 985 hPa
12R.NONAME - 996 hPa

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Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #42
CYCLONE TROPICAL GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 19 2012
================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (976 hPa) located at 25.7S 50.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 12 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===============
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
40 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
75 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
100 NM radius from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.5/W1.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.2S 52.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 25.1S 52.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 23.5S 51.7E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Loud pattern has degraded rapidly within the past six hours.

System is now undergoing a moderate upper level vertical wind shear and is moving in dry air in the mid-troposphere (cf. Recent water vapor imagery).

It is expected to keep on weakening rather rapidly and its steering flow is expected to move in the lower troposphere within the next 24 hours. On Monday, it is also forecast to adopt a slower, generally northward track, under the influence of the anticyclonic subtropical belt strengthening in its south.

Within the next 48 hours, environmental conditions will continue to deteriorate, with the strengthening of the vertical wind shear, due to an upper tropospheric trough transiting south-east of Madagascar. The residual low is forecast to fill up on Wednesday, within a broad area of low pressure over the Mascarene Islands.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
18:00 PM JST February 19 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.8N 112.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.5N 111.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 12:50 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #17
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
15:00 PM JST February 19 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.8N 112.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.5N 111.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 9:50 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
CYCLONE TROPICAL GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 19 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (962 hPa) located at 25.9S 49.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 14 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===============
20 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
35 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 110 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.2S 51.0E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 24.7S 51.8E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 23.3S 51.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 21.5S 52.1E - Depression se Comblant

Additional Information
=====================

Giovanna has reached briefly a DT of 6.0 at 0330z and 0400 AM UTC. Analyzed intensity (averaged over the past 6 hours) leads to a DT of 5.0. Last infrared and visible pictures depict degradation of the cloud features with a cloud a ragged eye and warming deep convection.

Giovanna shifts east northeastwards under the steering influence of a westerly to west-northwesterly flow on the southeastern border of the mid level highs located over South Africa and on the northern edge of the mid-latitudes westerlies. System is expected to keep on tracking east northeastwards up to Monday morning. Beyond, it should slow down and recurve northwards under the steering influence of the subtropical anticyclonic belt strengthening in its south, and of a broad area of low pressure growing over the Mascarene Islands (including system Tropical Disturbance 10).

On Sunday late and after, environmental conditions are expected to deteriorate undergoing a strengthening west northwesterly shear. System might rapidly weaken.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #16
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
12:00 PM JST February 19 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.8N 112.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.6N 111.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 6:50 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
9:00 AM JST February 19 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.8N 112.4Ehas 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.6N 111.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

Additional Information
===============

Tropical depression will move west at the same speed for the next 24 hours

Tropical depression will be upgraded to tropical storm within 24 hours

Tropical depression will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be 2.5 after 24 hours

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 3:50 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 10-20112012
4:00 AM RET February 19 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10 (1003 hPa) located at 17.0S 74.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 17 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/S0.0/0 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 17.7S 71.8E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 18.4S 69.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 19.8S 65.3E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.6S 63.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

Convective activity remains fluctuating and disorganized. System is expected to keep on tracking west southwestwards on the north-western edge of low to mid-level high pressures. On and after tuesday, system should take a southwestward then southward track and is expected to dissipate Wednesday late. In relationship with a lack of low level inflow, system is not expected to deepen significantly at short or medium range.

THIS SYSTEM DO NOT JUSTIFY ISSUE OF REGULAR WARNINGS
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #40
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 19 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (981 hPa) located at 26.5S 45.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
25 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM radius from the center extending extending up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 NM from the center extending up to 80 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 100 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/W0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.7S 49.5E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 25.4S 51.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 24.8S 51.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.4S 51.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Over the southern edge of the upper level ridge and in relationship with an approaching north-westerly upper level jet, Giovanna begins to undergo a northwesterly vertical wind shear.

Giovanna shift eastwards under the steering influence of a westerly to west northwesterly flow on the southeastern border of the mid level highs located over South Africa and on the northern edge of the mid-latitudes westerlies. System is expected to keep on tracking eastwards then east northeastwards up to Sunday late. Beyond, numerical weather prediction models are in rather agreement for a very clear slowing down and recurving track northwards toward southeastern coast of Madagascar.

On Sunday late and after, environmental conditions are expected to deteriorate undergoing a strengthening west northwesterly shear. System might rapidly weaken.

Inhabitants of south-eastern Malagasy areas are invited to closely follow the progress of this system. On the current forecast track, system is expected shifting away from the coastline but gusts up to 90 km/h and locally heavy rains should still occur over the southeastern Malagasy areas within the next 12 hours.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
6:00 AM JST February 19 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.7N 112.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.4N 111.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 0:50 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
3:00 AM JST February 19 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.7N 112.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.3N 111.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 21:50 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 18 2012
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (981 hPa) located at 26.5S 45.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM radius from the center extending extending up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 NM from the center extending up to 80 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 100 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T 3.5/4.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 26.0S 48.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 25.6S 50.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 24.9S 51.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 23.3S 50.3E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Over the southern edge of the upper level ridge and in relationship with an approaching north-westerly upper level jet, Giovanna begins to undergo a northwesterly vertical wind shear.

Giovanna shift eastwards under the steering influence of a westerly to west northwesterly flow on the south-eastern border of the mid level highs located over South Africa and on the northern edge of the mid-latitudes westerlies. System is expected to keep on accelerating eastwards then east northeastwards up to Sunday evening. Beyond, numerical weather prediction models are in rather agreement for a very clear slowing down and recurving track northwards toward southeastern coast of Madagascar.

On Sunday late and after, environmental conditions are expected to deteriorate undergoing a strengthening west northwesterly shear. System might rapidly weaken.

Inhabitants of southern Malagasy areas are invited to closely follow the progress of this system. On the current forecast track, system is expected transiting at more than 130 km away from the coastline , but we can not totally exclude that system approaches closer to the coast. Probability for landfall is very poor.

Gusts up to 90 km/h and locally heavy rains should still occur over the southern Malagasy areas within the next 12h to 18 hours.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
0:00 AM JST February 19 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 15:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.7N 112.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.3N 111.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 18:50 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #38
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 18 2012
================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (979 hPa) located at 26.5S 44.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving slowly.

Storm Force Winds
=============
25 NM radius from the center extending up to 50 NM in southern semi-circle and the northwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==================
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 40 NM in the northwest quadrant and up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 NM radius from the center extending up to 80 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 100 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T 3.5/4.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 26.2S 47.4E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 25.6S 49.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.2S 52.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 23.6S 50.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Dvorak signature has continued to deteriorate after 0600 AM UTC. 0841z 85ghz TRMM confirms this degradation. Very recently, pattern is a little better but DT 6 hours average is downgraded at 3.5. In relationship with maximum peak has occurred at 0300 AM UTC and as degradation has been very quick, current intensity has been downgraded at 60 kt despite Dvorak constraints.

Now, Giovanna seems to be steered by a westerly to west-northwesterly flow on the south-eastern border of the mid level highs located over south Africa and on the northern edge of the mid-latitudes westerlies. It is expected that it continues to accelerate on an eastwards to east-northeastwards track within the next hours and keep on this track up to Sunday evening. Beyond, numerical weather prediction models are in rather agreement for a very clear deceleration and recurve northward toward south-eastern coast of Madagascar. Latest ECMWF ensemble output seems to confirm this solution. So, current RSMC forecast has been re-adjusted.

Now, environmental conditions are still rather good but proximity of southern coast of Madagascar do not might allow a re-intensification. Monday and after, environmental conditions are expected to deteriorate with mainly a strengthening west-northwesterly shear. System might rapidly weaken.

Inhabitants of southern Malagasy areas are invited to closely follow the progress of this system. If the current forecast bring the system at the end of the day at about 100 km from the coast. We can not totally exclude that system transits closer to the coast. Now, probability for landfall is very poor.

Within the next hours, weather conditions might deteriorate over the southern coast of Madagascar (gusts up to 100 km/h and some heavy rains).

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
21:00 PM JST February 18 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.7N 112.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.2N 110.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 15:50 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
18:00 PM JST February 18 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at9.7N 112.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.0N 110.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 12:50 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 10-20112012
10:00 AM RET February 18 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10 (1001 hPa) located at 16.4S 76.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.9S 75.0E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 17.7S 72.3E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

THIS SYSTEM DO NOT JUSTIFY ISSUE OF REGULAR WARNINGS
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
CYCLONE TROPICAL GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 18 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (972 hPa) located at 26.3S 43.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===============
25 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
45 NM radius from the center extending up to 50 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
==================
75 NM radius from the center extending up to 80 NM in the southwestern and northeastern quadrants and up to 85 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
90 NM radius from the center extending up to 100 NM in the southwestern and northeastern quadrants and up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.4/4.4/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 26.4S 45.7E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 26.0S 47.8E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.3S 51.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.0S 52.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

DT 6 hours average has reached 4.5- at 0300 AM UTC. After this maximum, pattern is clearly deteriorating. 0209 AM UTC TRMM and 0428 AM UTC F18 show this recent deterioration. System is classified tropical cyclone due to 0300 AM UTC intensity peak. Giovanna seems undergo the influence of the coast of south Madagascar.

Giovanna is still located between two mid level highs generating contradictory steering flows over the system. Within the next hours, the eastern ridge might shift gradually eastward and Giovanna should be steered by a westerly to west northwesterly flow on the southeastern border of the mid level highs located over South Africa and on the northern edge of the mid-latitudes westerlies. So, system should gradually accelerate on an eastwards to east northeastwards track. Beyond Sunday evening, numerical weather prediction models are still in poor agreement with two possibilities: a continuing eastwards track or a rather sharp northwards turn along the southeastern coasts of Madagascar or over a southwards turn. Latest ECMWF ensemble output give a stronger weight to the eastwards solution. So, is the current RSMC forecast.

Now, environmental conditions should continue to be good with a good divergence and a very weak vertical winds hear, but the proximity of southern coast of Madagascar might continue to inflict the system. Monday and after, environmental conditions are expected to deteriorate with a less good upper level divergence, a strengthening west northwesterly shear and a low to mid-level dry air intrusion from the southwest associated to a surge of subtropical high pressure.

Inhabitants of southern Malagasy areas are invited to closely follow the progress of this system. If the current forecast bring the system at about 100 km from the coast this evening, a landfall is not totally excluded (mainly over coastal areas between Cape Sainte-Marie and Fort-Dauphin) on Saturday evening or Sunday. Regardless of this potential landfall, weather conditions might deteriorate over this area later today or tonight with strong winds (gusts up to 100 km/h) and heavy rains spells.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
15:00 PM JST February 18 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.8N 112.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.1N 110.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

Additional Information
==============

tropical depression will move west southwest at the same speed for the next 24 hours

Tropical depression will be upgraded to tropical storm within 24 hours

Tropical depression will develop because cyclone will stay in high sea surface temperature area

Final initial Dvorak number will be T2.5 after 24 hours

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 9:50 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
12:00 PM JST February 18 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.9N 112.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.1N 110.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

Additional Information
==================

Tropical depression will move west southwest at the same speed for the next 24 hours

Tropical depression will be upgraded to tropical storm within 24 hours

Tropical depression will develop because cyclone within stay in high sea surface temperate area

Final Dvorak number will be T2.5 after 24 hours

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 6:50 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F
6:00 AM FST February 18 2012
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 13F (1009 hPa) located at 20.5S 160.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization remains poor. Convection has not increased in past 12 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 hpa. Td13f lies to the south of 250hpa ridge axis in a moderate to high sheared environment.

Global models are yet to pick the system.

At this stage TD 13F is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone, there will be no more forecast for TD 13F
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
9:00 AM JST February 18 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.9N 112.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.2N 110.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 3:50 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #36
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 18 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Giovanna (978 hPa) located at 26.5S 43.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 4 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
45 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
70 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
90 NM radius from the center extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 26.6S 47.8E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 26.2S 46.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.5S 50.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.2S 51.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Giovanna keeps on intensifying and now show a ragged eye pattern with a rauw manual DT at 4.5. Present intensity estimation is based on DT 6 hours average (DT interpolated during met7 eclipse period according to msg imagery). Upper level divergence is excellent to the south with enhanced outflow on the northern edge of the subtropical ridge but rather limited to the north.

Giovanna is still located between two mid level highs generating contradictory steering flows over the system. Tomorrow, the eastern ridge is likely to shift gradually eastwards and Giovanna should be steered by an westerly to west northwesterly flow on the southeastern border of the mid level highs located over south Africa and on the northern edge of the mid-lat westerlies. On this pattern, the system should gradually accelerate on a eastwards to east northeastwards track. Beyond Sunday night, guidance are still in poor agreement with two possibilities: a continuing eastwards track or a rather sharp northwards turn along the southeastern coasts of Madagascar. Latest ECMWF ensemble output give a stronger weight to the eastwards solution ... so is the current forecast.

Environmental conditions should continue to improve today with a better outflow equatorward. The intensity forecast is a little bit more agressive but could be somewhat conservative as it remains below the ALDIN and ECMWF solution that bring Giovanna to the tropical cyclone level ... Monday and after, environmental conditions are expected to deteriorate with lower upper level divergence, stronger shear and a low to mid-level dry air intrusion from the southwest associated to a surge of subtropical high pressure.

Inhabitants of southern Malagasy areas are invited to closely follow the progress of this system: if the current forecast leave the system more offshore than previously, a landfall of Giovanna, mainly over coastal areas between cap Sainte-Marie and Fort-Dauphin , still cannot be ruled out Saturday night or Sunday! Regardless of this potential landfall, weather conditions should deteriorate over this area later today or tonight with strong winds (gusts up to 100 km/h) and heavy rains spells.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
6:00 AM JST February 18 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.6N 113.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 8.9N 111.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 0:50 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
3:00 AM JST February 18 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.5N 114.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.0N 111.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 21:50 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 17 2012
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (988 hPa) located at 26.3S 42.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
60 NM radius from the center extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 26.3S 43.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 26.1S 45.2E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.1S 47.5E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 23.9S 48.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=====================

Giovanna is intensifying ... overall pattern is slightly better than 24 hours ago and recently a curved band at 0.8 has developed around the center.

Giovanna is still located between two mid level highs generating contradictory steering flows over the system.

Latest available guidance are now in better agreement on the forecast track: tomorrow, the eastern ridge is likely to shift gradually eastwards and Giovanna should be steered by an westerly to west northwesterly flow on the southeastern border of the mid level highs located over South Africa and on the northern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. On this pattern, the system should gradually accelerate towards the east northeast.

System is expected to intensify again gradually: within the next 36 hours, Giovanna is expected to remain oversea and should reach back severe tropical storm stage.On and after this range, track uncertainty impact strongly the intensity forecast, depending on an oversea or inland track. Current RSMC forecast track is close to the previous one and offer an oversea track very close to the southern Malagasy coastline then a weakening due to a westerly sheared constraint and dissipation inland over the the southeastern Malagasy coastline. The 12z run from ECMWF, partly included in this forecast process, bring the system on a more faster and easterly track than previously.

Inhabitants of southern Malagasy areas are invited to closely follow the progress of this system: current forecast bring the system close to the southern coast of Madagascar Sunday between cap Sainte-Marie and Fort-Dauphin. Given the current uncertainty, a landfall between Itampolo (150 km south of Tulear) and Fort-Dauphin in the time frame from Saturday night and Sunday night is likely.

The option of a threat to Mozambique coastline is now excluded.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
0:00 AM JST February 18 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 15:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.4N 114.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.0N 112.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 18:50 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
21:00 PM JST February 17 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.4N 115.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 8.9N 112.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 15:50 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #34
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 17 2012
================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (993 hPa) located at 26.0S 42.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
55 NM radius from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 26.0S 43.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 25.9S 43.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.2S 46.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 24.1S 48.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=====================

Giovanna shows now a curved band feature. This morning 0546 AM UTC ASCAT swath covers partially the circulation but confirms that the maximum winds radii is extending at about 75 km away from the center. Track forecast keeps a rather strong uncertainty despite last numerical weather prediction models become in a better agreement for a globally eastwards motion. Last night upper level constraint is currently relaxing and system is therefore expected to intensify again gradually. Within the next 36 hours, Giovanna is expected to remain oversea and should reach back severe tropical storm stage. On and after this range, track uncertainty impact strongly the intensity forecast, depending on an oversea or inland track. Current RSMC forecast track is close to the 0000 AM UTC ECMWF's one and offer an oversea track very close to the southern Malagasy coastline then a weakening in relationship with a westerly sheared constraint and dissipation inland over the the southeastern Malagasy coastline.

Inhabitants of southern Malagasy areas are invited to closely follow the progress of this system.

The option of a threat to Mozambique coastline becomes less and less likely.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F
18:00 PM FST February 17 2012
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 13F (1007 hPa) located at 20.0S 161.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization remains poor. Convection has not increased in past 12 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 hpa. Td13f lies to the south of 250 hpa ridge axis in a moderate to high sheared environment.

Global models are yet to pick the system.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is low.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
18:00 PM JST February 17 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 09:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 9.4N 115.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.3N 113.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 12:50 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
15:00 PM JST February 17 2012
==================================

SUBJECT: TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN SOUTH CHINA SEA

At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.4N 116.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
========================

24 HRS: 9.4N 114.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 9:50 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 17 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (996 hPa) located at 25.5S 42.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM radius from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 100 in the northeastern quadrant and up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.7S 42.7E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 25.6S 43.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.6S 45.1E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.1S 46.3E - Depression sur Terre

Additional Information
=====================

Deep convective activity is very fluctuating and ASCAT 1832 PM UTC shows a strong winds crown rather far from the center. Last 0546 AM UTC ASCAT swath covers partially the circulation but confirms this maximum winds radii at about 75 km away from the center.

Track forecast keeps a large uncertainty despite last numerical weather prediction models become in a better agreement for a globally eastwards motion. Last night upper level constraint (refer to cirrus arc in the west on infrared imagery) is expected to progressively relax, system should therefore intensify again. Within the next 36 hours, Giovanna is expected to remain oversea and should reach back severe tropical storm stage. On and after this range, track uncertainty impact strongly intensity forecast, depending on an oversea or inland track. Despite last ECMWF numerical weather prediction run shows an oversea track, RSMC's one forecast a landfall in the region of Sainte-Marie Cape and then a weakening to dissipation.

Inhabitants of southern Malagasy areas are invited to closely follow the progress of this system.

Given the current high spread amongst the guidance, inhabitants of the Mozambican coasts should continue to follow the progress of Giovanna.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 10-20112012
4:00 AM RET February 17 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10 (1002 hPa) located at 15.0S 80.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/W0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 15.1S 79.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.2S 77.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.8S 73.2E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 17.0S 67.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

Overall presentation of the system remain always fluctuating. With the has deterioration of the convection last afternoon, end despite of a new small nightly burst of convection, the system remains into a unfavorable environment. No low level humidity inflow equatorward seems to be the main limitant factor for the development of this low. Moreover, as the upper level trough located south of the system will move away, the system is still expected to be more or less under a east-north-easterly upper level wind shear, on the northern edge of the high level ridge.

Monday, upper level conditions could become more conducive for further development with a better divergence south of the system.

System should continue to track west southwestward on the northern side of the subtropical high pressure that are building in its south. At the end of the forecast period, the track should take a more southwestwards component as the system should round the subtropical ridge located to its southeast.

Last warning about this system unless re-intensification
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #32
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 17 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (996 hPa) located at 25.3S 42.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
In the western semi-circle up to 70 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 to 150 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.4S 42.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 25.4S 42.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 25.2S 42.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 24.7S 44.8E - Depression sur Terre

Additional Information
=====================

The system seems to undergo a west northwesterly constraint, micro-waves data at 1722 PM UTC suggest a tilt between convection and low level circulation. However, the system should find more favorable upper level conditions and intensify again.

Giovanna is located within a barometric col situation between 2 sub highs located over austral Africa and south of Réunion.

Available guidance remains in poor agreement even at short term (tomorrow!!) with 2 possibles tracks: towards the northwest and a heading towards the Mozambican coasts (NOGAPS, GFDN, ALADIN) or quite stationary during the next 12-24 hours then east northeastwards track (ECMWF, GFS, UKMO) towards the Malagasy coasts

However, the last ECMWF ensemble still gives a quite equal weight to the two scenario ... for the moment the current forecast remains close to the ECMWF/GFS/UKMO consensus.

On this track, Giovanna could make a landfall on the south of Madagascar beyond tau60. Inhabitants of this area are invited to closely follow the progress of this system.

Given the current high spread amongst the guidance, inhabitants of the Mozambican coasts should continue to follow the progress of Giovanna.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F
11:00 AM FST February 17 2012
=================================

At 23:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 13F (1007 hPa) located at 18.0S 163.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization remains poor. Convection has not increased in past 12 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends upto 700 hpa. Td13f lies under 250 hpa ridge axis in a moderate sheared environment.

Global models are yet to pick the system.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is low.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 16 2012
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (993 hPa) located at 25.1S 41.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
Eastern semi-circle and up to 50 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 to 150 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.2S 41.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 25.3S 41.9E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.1S 42.2E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 24.8S 43.4E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

The system seems to undergo a west northwesterly constraint, SSMIS date of 1458 PM UTC suggest a tilt between convection and low level circulation. However, the system should find more favorable upper level conditions and intensify again.

Giovanna is located within a barometric col situation between 2 sub highs located over austral Africa and south of Réunion.

Available guidance remains in poor agreement even at short term (tomorrow!!) with 2 possibles tracks: towards the northwest and a heading towards the Mozambique coasts (NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMO, ALADIN) or a southeastwards very slowly and then east northeastwards track (ECMWF, GFS)

However, the ECMWF ensemble still gives a strong weight to the southeastwards and eastwards scenario...and the current forecast remains close to the ECMWF/GFS consensus.

On this track, Giovanna could make a landfall on the south of Madagascar beyond 72 hours. Inhabitants of this area are invited to closely follow the progress of this system.

Given the current high spread amongst the guidance, inhabitants of the Mozambican coasts between Beira and Maputo should continue to follow the progress of Giovanna.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #31
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER JASMINE (12F)
0:00 AM FST February 17 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Jasmine (999 hPa) located at 24.2S 175.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25-30 knots. The depression is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation.

Low level circulation exposed with deep convection displaced to the far east of low level circulation. System lies just to the south of an upper ridge axis with strong northwest winds aloft over the system. Vertical shear is moderate to high. System is being steered to the southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly into an area of high shear. Sea surface temperature around 26C.

Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern with low level circulation center about 85 nautical miles from edge of deep convection, yields DT=2.0, PT=2.0 and MET=2.0, final Dvorak based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a south southeast movement with no cyclone strength by 16FEB/1200 PM UTC.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC JASMINE BY THE FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
16:00 PM RET February 16 2012
================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (988 hPa) located at 25.1S 41.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
In the eastern semi-circle and up to 105 NM from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 120 to 150 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.6S 41.6E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 25.9S 42.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 26.3S 44.0E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 25.8S 48.1E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================

The curved band pattern of this morning has deteriorated during the last 6 hours ... Moreover, ASCAT data of this morning (0606 AM UTC) suggest that the current intensity may be a little bit generous

Giovanna is located within a barometric col situation between 2 sub highs located over austral Africa and south of Réunion.

Available guidance remains in poor agreement even at short term (tomorrow!!) with 2 possibles tracks: towards the northwest and a heading towards the Mozambique coasts (NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMO, ALADIN) or a southeastern and then eastern track (ECMWF, GFS).

However, the ECMWF ensemble still give a strong weight to the southeastwards and eastwards track ... And the current forecast remains close to the ECMWF/GFS consensus.

On this track, Giovanna could threaten the south of Madagascar. Inhabitants of this area are invited to closely follow the progress of this system.

Given the current high spread amongst the guidance, inhabitants of the Mozambique coasts between Beira and Maputo should continue to follow the progress of Giovanna.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 10-20112012
16:00 PM RET February 16 2012
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10 (1002 hPa) located at 15.0S 81.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 15.2S 80.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.4S 78.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.2S 74.3E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 17.8S 69.5E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

Overall presentation of the system has deteriorated once again this afternoon as thunderstorms activity close to the center collapsed. Undergoing a northwesterly constraint, the low level circulation center located is now exposed.

Intensity forecast confidence remains lower than usual with such a small system:

No low level humidity inflow equatorward seems to be the main limitant factor for the development of this low. Moreover, as the upper level trough located south of the system will move away, the system is still expected to be less or more under a north-easterly upper level wind shear, on the northern edge of the high level ridge.

Monday, upper level conditions could become more conducive for further development with a better divergence south of the system.

System should continue to track west southwestward on the northern side of the subtropical high pressure that are building in its south. At the end of the forecast period, the track should take a more southwestwards component as the system should round around the subtropical ridge located to its south east.

CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR ADVISORIES
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F
18:00 PM FST February 16 2012
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 13F (1007 hPa) located at 18.0S 164.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observation. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization remains poor. Convection has not increased in past 12 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends upto 700 hpa. Td13f lies under 250 hpa ridge axis in a moderate sheared environment.

Global models are yet to pick the system.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is low.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #30
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
18:00 PM FST February 16 2012
===================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (995 hPa) located at 23.5S 176.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 6 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS visible/enhanced infrared imagery with animation.

Gale Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Low level circulation center partially exposed with deep convection displaced to the east of low level circulation center. System lies just to the south of an upper ridge axis with good divergence aloft. Vertical shear is moderate to high. System is being steered to the southeast by deep layer mean northwesterly into an area of high shear. Sea surface temperature around 26C.

Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern with low level circulation center about 60 nautical miles from edge of deep convection, yields DT=2.0, PT=2.5 and MET=2.0, final Dvorak based on DT but due to final Dvorak constraint final Dvorak would be 2.5 as past 6 hour Final Dvorak was 3.0.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a south southeast movement with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 24.6S 176.0W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 25.6S 175.2W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 14:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20112012
10:00 AM RET February 16 2012
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 10 (1000 hPa) located at 15.0S 81.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center in southwestern quadrant and up to 130 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 15.1S 80.7E - 30 knots (Depresssion Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.4S 79.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.7S 76.2E - 30 knots (Depresssion Tropicale)
72 HRS: 18.3S 71.0E - 30 knots (Depresssion Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

Intensity estimate at 0000 AM UTC has been corrected. Latest ascat pass clearly shows near gale to locally gale force winds in the southern semi-circle (but not in the northern semi-circle). As an upper level trough is located to the southwest of the system, a northwesterly constraint is evident with a low level circulation center located to the northwestern edge of the cloud mass.

No major changes in the forecast philosophy, but a lower than usual confidence for the intensity forecast with such a small system:

No feeding equatorward seems to be the main limitant factor for the development of this low. Monsoon inflow should improve slightly at 48 hours.

System is expected to be less or more under the north-easterly upper level wind shear, on the northern edge of the high level ridge, trough the forecast period.

System should continue to track west southwestward on the northern side of the subtropical high pressure that are building in its south.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
10:00 AM RET February 16 2012
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (988 hPa) located at 24.6S 41.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 25.0S 41.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 25.4S 41.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 26.1S 42.0E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 26.6S 43.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Convection has organized on a 0.8ao log 10 curved band pattern during the last 6 hours.

Environmental conditions remain favorable for the deepening of the system within the next 3 days. Indeed, oceanic heat content is sufficient, low level feeding is good equatorward and is progressively improving poleward, upper level wind shear is weak below the upper ridge axis and two good outflow channels are expected to develop north and south of the system. On Sunday and after, system should begin to weaken under the strengthening of the upper level constraint.

System is forecast to move slowly generally southward for the next 48 to 60 hours under the influence of opposite steering flows in mid-troposphere (a ridge in its west and another one in its east). Beyond, although there are still some spread amongst the various guidance, system should track eastwards, under the probable influence in the mid-troposphere ridge that rebuilt north of the system.

Most of the members of the last ensemble forecast of the ECMWF (15FEB/1200 PM UTC run) are now in agreement with the recurvement eastward in the direction of the south of Madagascar and only a few members (less than 5 amongst the 51) show a westwards motion towards the Mozambique coasts.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #29
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
12:00 PM FST February 16 2012
===================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (990 hPa) located at 22.8S 176.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 4 knots. Position fair based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization remains same in past 24 hours. Convection has increased slightly in the last 24 hours. Low level circulation center partially exposed to the west of the primary convective band past three hours. The system lies to the south of an upper ridge axis with good divergence aloft. Vertical shear is moderate. Sea surface temperatures around 26C. System is being steered south southeastwards into an area of increasing shear and
Cooler Sea surface temperatures.

Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern less 0.75 degrees, yields a DT of 3.0, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

The consensus of global models suggest a south-southeast movement with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 24.0S 176.1W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 25.0S 175.5W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 26.6S 173.3W - 25 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 10-20112012
4:00 AM RET February 16 2012
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 10 (1002 hPa) located at 15.6S 83.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.0S 81.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 16.1S 80.3E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 16.6S 77.7E - 30 knots (Depresssion Tropicale)
72 HRS: 18.3S 72.8E - 30 knots (Depresssion Tropicale)

Additional Information
=======================

The pattern in little central dense overcast has degrade over the past hours, and convection remains fluctuating.

No feeding equatorward seems to be the main limitant factor for the development of this low. Monsoon inflow should improve slightly at 48 hours.

System is expected to be less or more under the northeasterly upper level wind shear, on the northern edge of the high level ridge, trough the forecast period.

Intensity has also been revised and lowered.

System should continue to track west southwestward on the northern side of the subtropical high pressure that are building in its south.

CURRENT INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #28
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 16 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (994 hPa) located at 24.3S 40.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
25 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
80 NM radius from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 24.9S 40.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 24.9S 40.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.7S 38.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 26.2S 41.1E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================

Convection has slowly organized around the broad low level circulation, but remains fluctuating.

Environmental conditions remain favorable for the deepening of the system within the next 3 days. Indeed, oceanic heat content is sufficient, low level feeding is good equatorward and is progressively improving poleward, upper level wind shear is weak below the upper ridge axis and two good outflow channels are expected to develop north and south of the system. On Sunday and after, system should begin to weaken under the combined effect of the weakening of the equatorward feeding (approaching of the southern coast of Madagascar) and strengthening of the upper level constraint.

System is forecast to move slowly generally southward for the next 48 to 60 hours under the influence of opposite steering flows in mid-troposphere (a ridge in its west and another one in its east). Beyond, system should track eastward, under the probable influence in the mid-troposphere of the westerly mid-latitude circulation, combined with the strengthening of the anticyclonic cell over South Africa and the shifting eastward of the anticyclonic cell located over the Indian ocean.

Most of the members of the last ensemble forecast of the ECMWF (15/1200 PM UTC) are now in agreement with the recurvement eastward in the direction of the south of Madagascar. Actual forecast of the RSMC Réunion is close the ECMWF one (deterministic model).

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F
9:00 AM FST February 16 2012
=================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 13F (1007 hPa) located at 18.0S 165.0E is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots. Position good based on multisatellite visible/infrared imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 28C.

Organization remains poor. Convection has not increased in past 12 hours. Cyclonic circulation extends upto 700 hpa. Td13f lies under 250 hpa ridge axis in a moderate sheared environment.

Global models are yet to pick the system.

The potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is low.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #28
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
6:00 AM FST February 16 2012
===================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (990 hPa) located at 21.9S 177.3W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 4 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
==================
20 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization remains same in past 24 hours. Convection has slightly increased in the last 24 hours. System lies just to the south of an upper ridge axis with good divergence aloft. Vertical wind shear is moderate, system is moving south towards a high shear environment. Sea surface temperature around 26C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.5 wrap on log10 spiral, yielding DT=2.5, PT=3.0 and MET=3.0, final Dvorak based on MET.

T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a southward movement with gradual
Weakening.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 22.9S 177.4W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 24.0S 177.1W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 26.0S 175.4W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 2:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 15 2012
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Giovanna (994 hPa) located at 24.1S 41.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
20 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
40 NM radius from the center extending up to 60 NM in the western semi-circle and up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 24.9S 40.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 25.2S 40.1E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 25.9S 38.7E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 26.4S 40.2E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=====================

Convection has organized in a curved band feature west and south of the broad low level circulation during the past six hours. Microwave picture TRMM 1511 PM UTC (37ghz) depict a broad but well defined low level circulation.

System is expected to keep on tracking south south-westward within the next 12 hours. Beyond, it is forecast to adopt a slow hook shape track westward and after eastward on and after 48 hour. System should indeed remain under the influence of weak and opposite steering flows in the middle troposphere between 12-48 hours. Beyond 48 hours, a mid troposphere ridge should rebuilt in its northeast and lead the system eastward.

System might rapidly intensify with good environmental conditions (weak vertical wind shear, ocean heat content very high and good low level inflow). Intensity should level off between day 2 and day 3/day 4 due to the slow movement of the system.

The present RSMC official forecast track is close to ECMWF model. However, deterministic models and ECMWF ensemble forecast are also highly dispersed.

This important differences seem to be product by intensity forecasts that are more or less strong by different models

On Sunday, landfall over Mozambique is not excluded. But now, that is not the RSMC option for official forecast track.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 10-20112012
22:00 PM RET February 15 2012
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 10 (1000 hPa) located at 14.7S 83.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
30 NM radius from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 16.2S 82.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 16.3S 80.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 17.5S 78.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 18.6S 74.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
=======================

According to the very last available satellite pictures, the little central dense overcast pattern is degrading. The ASCAT swath at 1534 PM UTC suggests a poorly defined low level circulation reaching near gale force wind at least in the southern semi-circle.

The low level environment is not favorable, with a very poor polar inflow and quite not existing monsoon flow, and despite of quite correct upper level conditions during the next 24 to 36 hours with a good polar outflow, intensification may remain slow. Beyond this hour, the increasing vertical wind shear should limit the development of the system despite of the improving of both trades and monsoon flows.

System might continue to track west-south-westward on the northern edge of the subtropical high pressures rebuilding in the south.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Service will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #27
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
0:00 AM FST February 16 2012
===================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (990 hPa) located at 21.5S 177.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. The cyclone is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
==================
20 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
20 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Organization remains same in past 24 hours. Convection has increased in the last 24 hours. System lies just to the south of an upper ridge axis with good divergence aloft. Vertical shear is moderate, system is moving towards a high shear environment to the south. Sea surface temperature around 26C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.5 wrap on log10 spiral, yielding DT=2.5, PT=3.0 and MET=3.0, final Dvorak based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Most global models agree on a south-southwest movement with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 22.4S 177.4W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 23.5S 177.3W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 20:30 PM UTC..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 51 Comments: 46158

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