Prognostication for the rest of the summer

By: Grothar , 6:10 PM GMT on August 08, 2014

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What to expect in the next few weeks?

I see a very marked increase of activity in the Atlantic basin. In the short term, the Bay of Campeche has been noted as area to watch by most of the models. It is a climatological area of development at this point in the season, so expecting something there is not that far out of the realm of possibility. However, I do not see that anything that develops will be very strong (at this time).

I have seen numerous posts of the large African wave which should be moving into the Atlantic in a few days. I even posted it the other night. This is usually the beginning of stronger impulses coming off of Africa at this time of year, so again nothing unusual.

It is a large cluster.



The feature over Africa and the SAL. I do not put as much emphasis on the SAL as some others. There are too many factors in determining the level at which the SAL affects development and looks can be deceiving. There will be a lot of dry air in the short term.




In the next few weeks, high pressures will begin building in the Northern Hemisphere, which I believe, tend to drop pressures in the Atlantic. The high over the Atlantic is expected to remain at much lower latitudes an be capable of steering some systems much longer to the west and west-northwest; putting the east coast at a higher risk of activity. This should lead to a short, but very active few weeks. With vigorous waves moving off of Africa and the Atlantic expected to become less dry, there should be a number of systems forming. I would not be surprised if they form very closely in time.






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17. Grothar
6:45 PM GMT on August 09, 2014
Quoting 12. Astrometeor:

Can you do lottery forecasts, too?


Yes, I do. But they always draw the wrong numbers.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26390
16. barbamz
11:17 AM GMT on August 09, 2014




Thanks Gro! Exciting to watch which expectations will pan out lol.

Forecasters Lower Hurricane Season Expectations
Climate Central, Published: August 7th, 2014
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 55 Comments: 5993
15. Patrap
3:23 AM GMT on August 09, 2014
It's Hotsui.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
14. Grothar
3:22 AM GMT on August 09, 2014
Quoting 13. RTLSNK:



Wrong grasshopper. Amadeus, 1984, Emperor Joseph II said it many times during the movie. LOL


Well Jeff Goldblum said it in Jurassic Park. My memory doesn't go back after 1990. Everything is a blur. Almost like the 1960's/ :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26390
13. RTLSNK
12:31 AM GMT on August 09, 2014
Quoting 5. Grothar:



Jurassic Park. It was on Wednesday.


Wrong grasshopper. Amadeus, 1984, Emperor Joseph II said it many times during the movie. LOL
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 21088
12. Astrometeor
9:59 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Can you do lottery forecasts, too?
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10317
11. LakeWorthFinn
9:39 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Love you and your blog Gro, you crack me up, make my day, put a smile on my face and remind me to rotf every now and then. Glad att du är här ...
~~~~♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥~~~~
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7341
10. Grothar
8:08 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Quoting 6. Envoirment:

I was thinking we'd see another couple storms, so nice to see you also think that way! I honestly don't think the latest SAL outburst is much to be worried about in terms of development. The current wave coming off of Africa will likely clear out some of it. Also, it seems that there's some convection starting to fire off into the SAL which is acossicated with the monsoon trough. Not to mention we've seem storms develop in the midst of SAL and fight it off. Exciting stuff to watch out for in the coming couples weeks!


The season active season may be short, but I think there will be quite a bit of activity through September. I wish I could show you the MJO, baroclinic lows and DMZ's and HERP's, but I'll leave those for others. Right now, it looks like systems may be strong coming from the east, but might run into a little trouble developing further in the Atlantic until the atmosphere will be more favorable. It appears it will in a few weeks.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26390
9. Grothar
8:03 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Quoting 8. drs2008:

I think your blog was good. I agree with you assessment of the ambiguity of the SAL component of the multivariable equation,regarding cyclogenesis.


I wish I could take credit for the thinking on that, but most of the models are in agreement that the Atlantic will moisten up soon.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26390
8. drs2008
7:57 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
I think your blog was good. I agree with you assessment of the ambiguity of the SAL component of the multivariable equation,regarding cyclogenesis.
Member Since: July 4, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 193
7. PedleyCA
7:28 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Time Will Tell, you are right most if not all of the time.... Good Day Sensei....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5885
6. Envoirment
7:26 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
I was thinking we'd see another couple storms, so nice to see you also think that way! I honestly don't think the latest SAL outburst is much to be worried about in terms of development. The current wave coming off of Africa will likely clear out some of it. Also, it seems that there's some convection starting to fire off into the SAL which is acossicated with the monsoon trough. Not to mention we've seem storms develop in the midst of SAL and fight it off. Exciting stuff to watch out for in the coming couples weeks!
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 857
5. Grothar
7:08 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Quoting 1. RTLSNK:

Well, there it is then.

(Name that Movie)


Jurassic Park. It was on Wednesday.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26390
4. Greg01
7:00 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Thank you - keep them coming.
Member Since: July 13, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 143
3. K8eCane
6:53 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Thanks Gro! I value your perception of the situation. I like this situation room because its much quieter than the other situation room
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3188
2. FOREX
6:45 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Very good Blog. I feel your forecast will be very accurate.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
1. RTLSNK
6:24 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Well, there it is then.

(Name that Movie)
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 21088

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