Prognostication for the rest of the summer

By: Grothar , 6:10 PM GMT on August 08, 2014

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What to expect in the next few weeks?

I see a very marked increase of activity in the Atlantic basin. In the short term, the Bay of Campeche has been noted as area to watch by most of the models. It is a climatological area of development at this point in the season, so expecting something there is not that far out of the realm of possibility. However, I do not see that anything that develops will be very strong (at this time).

I have seen numerous posts of the large African wave which should be moving into the Atlantic in a few days. I even posted it the other night. This is usually the beginning of stronger impulses coming off of Africa at this time of year, so again nothing unusual.

It is a large cluster.



The feature over Africa and the SAL. I do not put as much emphasis on the SAL as some others. There are too many factors in determining the level at which the SAL affects development and looks can be deceiving. There will be a lot of dry air in the short term.




In the next few weeks, high pressures will begin building in the Northern Hemisphere, which I believe, tend to drop pressures in the Atlantic. The high over the Atlantic is expected to remain at much lower latitudes an be capable of steering some systems much longer to the west and west-northwest; putting the east coast at a higher risk of activity. This should lead to a short, but very active few weeks. With vigorous waves moving off of Africa and the Atlantic expected to become less dry, there should be a number of systems forming. I would not be surprised if they form very closely in time.






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24. Grothar
10:30 PM GMT on November 18, 2014
Link
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27107
23. DonnieBwkGA
3:25 AM GMT on November 01, 2014
Rikki Tiki Tavi, a story by Ruyard Kipling, as an animated short film from the Soviet Union, 1965.

Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 35 Comments: 2511
22. vis0
3:39 AM GMT on October 16, 2014
U might have most of these already but just in case.

Preferred to send it to u & Sar ONLY but don't use WxU mail so i axe, that you delete this after coping it otherwise the links will be overused and might have to be  then "privatized" as happened with NOAA, which BTW one can get STILL via a SAmerican wxSite and a far north Eur-Asain site.

Psssst, hey buddy want the good stuff..


URLS needed to understand (somewhat) the message below:

youtube clip:: http://youtu.be/jih8PzuNgWI

http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/index.html?MODEL=mrf

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukmo/pression/6h.htm

Select Puerto Rico for REGION, if you want the Atlantic to be modeled.

At the 2nd link (University of Wyoming) select MRF, then try the many combinations i tried the ones you see at the top of the youtube clip,
First colour fill
(wind speeds),
Second colour fill
(wind speeds),
First Contour
(ETA Sea Level Pressure) though i though the Contour was extinct...oh wrong spelling.. 
Second Contour
(ETA Sea Level Pressure) &
Vector
(Wind Arrows),

set to 375° F for 20 mins (or 3 days in the Easy Bake Oven) i mean press GET DATA, this opens another page so the settings remain untouched, SAVE them for future use.

Though sea level pressure comes up when 1000 - 500 hPa Thickness is also used at times settings become mixed up.

EXPLANATION OF YOUTUBE CLIP::
MRF (medium range models) was as close as to on the dot one can get and the model went to 10+ days out.
(on the capture (youtube clip) ,was posted on Masters blog the next day i think Oct 10th 2014) you can see the ends of what became Fay, Gonzalo & the genesis of a GoMx Low. its not the complete 20 day forecast as i joined 2-10day models yet being i'm on 49-56k connections i edited down to just the latest 10 day MRF model cause its too big MB wise to upload at a 56k rate. The first 10-day run (not in VIDEO) shows a Low from the north of Puerto Rico heading NE over Bermuda blends with the Low you see to the extreme upper right ...

(984mb, its the big Low i posted last Sunday & Monday on another wxu members blog, i think Mondays was on the official WxU Extreme weather blog.)

...of this MRF animation. It shows another Low near Puerto Rico whuich blends with a cold front that is vertically (N-S) tilting, the Low you see at the start on the top middle of the screen (992MB), then you see the GoMx low develope ~ Oct 18th 2014 at the end of the model animation. If it has an error its that all storms developed 2-3 days later or where slower in their forward motion by 2 to 3 days.

i wish i had saved the model that should 10 days before Edouard developing again 3 days faster but it had the correct track just 25 mi more westward but that's very good for 10 days out.

BTW i purposely highlight (make clickable) only words of links it helps lower malware, as they go for fully highlighted links to follow not just words.
Member Since: December 15, 2006 Posts: 262 Comments: 582
21. DonnieBwkGA
11:17 PM GMT on October 10, 2014
Grothar, this is Solaris (1972), the best Soviet science-fiction film ever made. In two parts, uncut, in the original Russian. Embedding is disabled but the links should work. Title sequence is 3 minutes.

Part 1

Part 2
Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 35 Comments: 2511
20. DonnieBwkGA
3:10 AM GMT on October 10, 2014
Hope you like these Grothar.
Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 35 Comments: 2511
19. DonnieBwkGA
3:08 AM GMT on October 10, 2014
The Inhabited Island (Russia) from 2008. The most expensive Russian sci-fi movie ever made. Subtitled in Arabic.

Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 35 Comments: 2511
18. DonnieBwkGA
2:50 AM GMT on October 10, 2014
More Communist Sci-Fi!

Eolomea (East Germany, released September 1972)

The robot (1)



Interrogating the robot



Opening



Ending

Member Since: June 29, 2013 Posts: 35 Comments: 2511
17. Grothar
6:45 PM GMT on August 09, 2014
Quoting 12. Astrometeor:

Can you do lottery forecasts, too?


Yes, I do. But they always draw the wrong numbers.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27107
16. barbamz
11:17 AM GMT on August 09, 2014




Thanks Gro! Exciting to watch which expectations will pan out lol.

Forecasters Lower Hurricane Season Expectations
Climate Central, Published: August 7th, 2014
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 62 Comments: 6514
15. Patrap
3:23 AM GMT on August 09, 2014
It's Hotsui.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129439
14. Grothar
3:22 AM GMT on August 09, 2014
Quoting 13. RTLSNK:



Wrong grasshopper. Amadeus, 1984, Emperor Joseph II said it many times during the movie. LOL


Well Jeff Goldblum said it in Jurassic Park. My memory doesn't go back after 1990. Everything is a blur. Almost like the 1960's/ :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27107
13. RTLSNK
12:31 AM GMT on August 09, 2014
Quoting 5. Grothar:



Jurassic Park. It was on Wednesday.


Wrong grasshopper. Amadeus, 1984, Emperor Joseph II said it many times during the movie. LOL
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 21961
12. Astrometeor
9:59 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Can you do lottery forecasts, too?
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10449
11. LakeWorthFinn
9:39 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Love you and your blog Gro, you crack me up, make my day, put a smile on my face and remind me to rotf every now and then. Glad att du är här ...
~~~~♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥~~~~
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7411
10. Grothar
8:08 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Quoting 6. Envoirment:

I was thinking we'd see another couple storms, so nice to see you also think that way! I honestly don't think the latest SAL outburst is much to be worried about in terms of development. The current wave coming off of Africa will likely clear out some of it. Also, it seems that there's some convection starting to fire off into the SAL which is acossicated with the monsoon trough. Not to mention we've seem storms develop in the midst of SAL and fight it off. Exciting stuff to watch out for in the coming couples weeks!


The season active season may be short, but I think there will be quite a bit of activity through September. I wish I could show you the MJO, baroclinic lows and DMZ's and HERP's, but I'll leave those for others. Right now, it looks like systems may be strong coming from the east, but might run into a little trouble developing further in the Atlantic until the atmosphere will be more favorable. It appears it will in a few weeks.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27107
9. Grothar
8:03 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Quoting 8. drs2008:

I think your blog was good. I agree with you assessment of the ambiguity of the SAL component of the multivariable equation,regarding cyclogenesis.


I wish I could take credit for the thinking on that, but most of the models are in agreement that the Atlantic will moisten up soon.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27107
8. drs2008
7:57 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
I think your blog was good. I agree with you assessment of the ambiguity of the SAL component of the multivariable equation,regarding cyclogenesis.
Member Since: July 4, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 197
7. PedleyCA
7:28 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Time Will Tell, you are right most if not all of the time.... Good Day Sensei....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6092
6. Envoirment
7:26 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
I was thinking we'd see another couple storms, so nice to see you also think that way! I honestly don't think the latest SAL outburst is much to be worried about in terms of development. The current wave coming off of Africa will likely clear out some of it. Also, it seems that there's some convection starting to fire off into the SAL which is acossicated with the monsoon trough. Not to mention we've seem storms develop in the midst of SAL and fight it off. Exciting stuff to watch out for in the coming couples weeks!
Member Since: June 16, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 1019
5. Grothar
7:08 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Quoting 1. RTLSNK:

Well, there it is then.

(Name that Movie)


Jurassic Park. It was on Wednesday.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27107
4. Greg01
7:00 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Thank you - keep them coming.
Member Since: July 13, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 160
3. K8eCane
6:53 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Thanks Gro! I value your perception of the situation. I like this situation room because its much quieter than the other situation room
Member Since: April 26, 2006 Posts: 5 Comments: 3222
2. FOREX
6:45 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Very good Blog. I feel your forecast will be very accurate.
Member Since: August 17, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2335
1. RTLSNK
6:24 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
Well, there it is then.

(Name that Movie)
Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 21961

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