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Prognostication for the rest of the summer
By: Grothar , 6:10 PM GMT on August 08, 2014
What to expect in the next few weeks?
I see a very marked increase of activity in the Atlantic basin. In the short term, the Bay of Campeche has been noted as area to watch by most of the models. It is a climatological area of development at this point in the season, so expecting something there is not that far out of the realm of possibility. However, I do not see that anything that develops will be very strong (at this time).
I have seen numerous posts of the large African wave which should be moving into the Atlantic in a few days. I even posted it the other night. This is usually the beginning of stronger impulses coming off of Africa at this time of year, so again nothing unusual.
It is a large cluster.
The feature over Africa and the SAL. I do not put as much emphasis on the SAL as some others. There are too many factors in determining the level at which the SAL affects development and looks can be deceiving. There will be a lot of dry air in the short term.
In the next few weeks, high pressures will begin building in the Northern Hemisphere, which I believe, tend to drop pressures in the Atlantic. The high over the Atlantic is expected to remain at much lower latitudes an be capable of steering some systems much longer to the west and west-northwest; putting the east coast at a higher risk of activity. This should lead to a short, but very active few weeks. With vigorous waves moving off of Africa and the Atlantic expected to become less dry, there should be a number of systems forming. I would not be surprised if they form very closely in time.
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