Grothar's WunderBlog

94L 95L 96L

Posted by: Grothar, 8:27 AM GMT on August 20, 2012

+16

How this will affect the course o 94L will be interesting. The FIM7 model earlier runs had 94L moving into the Caribbean and moving WNW. Almost all the models have consistently been moving 94L into the Caribbean since yesterday morning. The little more Southerly track should not have come as a surprise to anybody, since there was pretty good model agreement and discuss of the other Lows preceding 94L since it left Africa. Most of these discussions were dismissed.

So far, the 00z models move 94L towards Florida. It is possible a track could miss a lot of land interaction and be in the Southern Bahamas.

Other models seem to agree at this time as well

However, the intensity forecasts will remain tricky until the system consolidates and how much land interaction will occur.

The FIM8 model, which had originally been moving 94L to the NW too early is now coming into agreement with the FIM7 which I think I had a better handle on 94L from the beginning.

This last image is still a good possibility at this time.

96L looks pretty good already. Although the early tracks move it more to the WNW and NW. As we all know things change.

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1. RTLSNK (Mod) 9:08 AM GMT on August 20, 2012
Wow, nice weather blog dude! heh heh heh Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 15199

2. Grothar 9:16 AM GMT on August 20, 2012
Quoting RTLSNK: Wow, nice weather blog dude! heh heh heh What the hell are you doing up? Guys our age need our sleep. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19542

3. RTLSNK (Mod) 9:29 AM GMT on August 20, 2012
Quoting Grothar: What the hell are you doing up? Guys our age need our sleep. Thunderstorm at 0400 hours. Bolt of lightning must have hit somewhere close to the house. Thunder roll had me on my feet in an instant. Amazing how that still happens after forty years. At least I don't head for the door anymore. Would set off the alarm system. :) Member Since: September 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 15199

4. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 1:04 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
am i allow to post music here Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40565

5. icmoore 1:40 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
I don't like your blog one bit! Now you get busy changing all those models and graphics and I'll check back later :)) I've heard mention it could be an RNC jinx but I might start wondering if it's me soon! My first summer here...no way...but then maybe Debby was my warning shot :) I can appreciate your insight but you can't make me like it :) Member Since: July 18, 2005 Posts: 9 Comments: 4062

6. Some1Has2BtheRookie 2:27 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Great analysis, Grothar! Dr. Masters asked a good question the other day. I will paraphrase, "What are the odds of the Republican National Convention being hit by a tropical system this year?" .... August ... Florida ... "home growns" and Cape Verdi systems. ... Well, you just can't rule it out. Did you get any rain over the weekend? Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102

7. Some1Has2BtheRookie 2:34 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Quoting RTLSNK: Wow, nice weather blog dude! heh heh heh Snake, they put the buttons too close together again and I hit the wrong one. ...I'll get you some new handlebar streamers for your Vespa, for my mistake. .... Yes, it will be awhile before you live that one down. .... There are some things that you are supposed* to take to the grave with you.* Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102

8. Grothar 2:51 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE: am i allow to post music here Not during an active system watch. That would be quite inappropriate. You know how I always stay on topic. when I post the OK, then you can post what you want. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19542

9. Grothar 2:52 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie: Great analysis, Grothar! Dr. Masters asked a good question the other day. I will paraphrase, "What are the odds of the Republican National Convention being hit by a tropical system this year?" .... August ... Florida ... "home growns" and Cape Verdi systems. ... Well, you just can't rule it out. Did you get any rain over the weekend? You notice how the Doc always comes out with his blog after mine and they are almost identical. I think he reads mine first. :) I nailed another one :P Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19542

10. Grothar 2:53 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Quoting RTLSNK: Thunderstorm at 0400 hours. Bolt of lightning must have hit somewhere close to the house. Thunder roll had me on my feet in an instant. Amazing how that still happens after forty years. At least I don't head for the door anymore. Would set off the alarm system. :) I know what you're talking about! Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19542

11. Some1Has2BtheRookie 3:47 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Quoting Grothar: You notice how the Doc always comes out with his blog after mine and they are almost identical. I think he reads mine first. :) I nailed another one :P I would not become too worried about this. We all have to get our information from some place. Dr. Maters is no dummy and will use the best sources available to him. ... Now, if Joe Bastardi starts linking to your blog for his forecasts, I would begin to worry. LOL Yes, you did nail another one. Debbie will never forgive you for knowing her so well. ;-) ... Well, since she could not make up her own mind, someone had to do it for her! Great job! Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4102

12. Greg01 5:17 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Thank you - nice blog. Member Since: July 13, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 35

13. FtMyersgal 5:18 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Thanks for the new Blog Grothar. Glad we things to track, but I definately do not want the "I" storm in the GOM.... Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 995

14. PRweathercenter 5:45 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Great blog!! Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 58 Comments: 916

15. PedleyCA 6:24 PM GMT on August 20, 2012
Nice Blog Sensei.... stay safe... Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2147

16. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod) 12:15 AM GMT on August 21, 2012
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 143 Comments: 40565

17. HurricaneHunterJoe 1:49 AM GMT on August 21, 2012
As always,thank you very much for your wise inputs old wise one. Looking forward to more as we get closer to seeing where it will be at his final destination. Keep up the good work! Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2690

18. tstormtime 2:41 AM GMT on August 21, 2012
Nice blog Grothar. Love all the graphics! Member Since: June 18, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 92

19. goosegirl1 4:34 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
In reference to a convo last night about Japanese: I didn't want to take up main blog space with trivialites, but I guess I don't scruple at using your space. My daughter tells me there are more than 20 works for "I" in common use in Japanese, but many more are used rarely or in older lterary works. There is a specific for boys, men, girls, women, "girly" men, "manly" women, military, friends, formal, concubines, wives, husbands, ... on and on. Makes "le" and "la" sound simple to me :) Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 859

20. Grothar 7:08 PM GMT on August 21, 2012
Quoting goosegirl1: In reference to a convo last night about Japanese: I didn't want to take up main blog space with trivialites, but I guess I don't scruple at using your space. My daughter tells me there are more than 20 works for "I" in common use in Japanese, but many more are used rarely or in older lterary works. There is a specific for boys, men, girls, women, "girly" men, "manly" women, military, friends, formal, concubines, wives, husbands, ... on and on. Makes "le" and "la" sound simple to me :) That is why I asked you to ask her. A little bit of trivia. Only the Emperor is allowed to use the actual word "I". Their culture reflects their deference for the Emperor by being so specific in the first person usage of the word. Also,there are words exclusively used by men and others only by women. Not odd really, we also have that in English. Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 56 Comments: 19542

21. LakeWorthFinn 2:08 AM GMT on August 23, 2012
Dr. Master's blog is a jungle so I'll repeat the question I left you there: Hei {{Gro}}, what is FIM8 short for? Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 6962

22. GeorgiaStormz 6:29 PM GMT on August 23, 2012
Thanks Grothar Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7163

23. AwakeInMaryland 3:53 AM GMT on August 27, 2012
Quoting Grothar: Not during an active system watch. That would be quite inappropriate. You know how I always stay on topic. when I post the OK, then you can post what you want. ROFLMTushieO!!! Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 32 Comments: 1918

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