Vwry Quick update on Alex

By: Gorty , 5:12 AM GMT on June 29, 2010

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Tuesday, June 29, 2010 at 12:45 am EDT.

Just as I feared... the track models had split. A batch of them keeps Alex on a more norherly course, and another bath of them has him going on a southernly course. Because of this split, and the fact Alex had been going due north, I shifted my forecast track a little north from my blog entry last night. With the GFNL still my out-lier model.





Intensity wise, well, I am with the NHC, being puzzled as to why the HWRF and the GFDL continues to not intsnsify Alex into a hurricane. I do believe Alex will go into a hurricane. The HWARF, GFDL, and a lesser extent, the SHIPS are the out-lier models here. I think it can become a very weak cat-3 hurricane if it stays in the water for a nother 3 and a half days. Shortly there after, I agree with the other models, excluding the SHIPS of rapid weakening; one, due to the shallow cool water of the coast; two, landfall. I still think it will be a Cat 2 at landfall.



What are my closing comments? Well, South Texas and North east Mexico still needs to watch this, as well as the upper coast of Texas. Alex should be a hurricane at landfall. Probably 100 MPH.

BTW, the images are down on my previous blog, I will try to put them ack up ASAP,

Gorty

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About Gorty

Hey all! I live in New England and I love tropical cyclones.