Tropical Storm Alex Update

By: Gorty , 4:29 AM GMT on June 28, 2010

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Sunday 11:48 PM EDT June 27th 2010.

Alex back to TS status

Well, Alex made landfall as a 65 MPH storm. I know, old news! I am thinking, the NHC may raise its strength upon landfall to 70 MPH in post-season analysis. I can make theat claim by looking at plenty of warm water right up to the coast and the amazing structure it had. And wow. Alex may have weakened crossing the Yukatan, but he remained very impressive on satalite. He had kept a very nice and tight inner core through the passing; and now, it is about half over water and half over land. Still looking impressive. Infact, as of the 11:00 PM EDT advisory, winds are at 45 MPH and pressure is down 991 mb. The 991 mb indicates that Alex's winds will soon increase.

The future track of Alex

Models as of the 0000 UTC update on June 28th, 2010

With models slowly agreeing with one another, I am a little more confident with giving a track forecast. Look below a the image. The red path is where I think Alex could go. The GFNL continues to be an outlier since the other models does not show Alex going that way. However, the GFNL has been going up north with the other models. It is also important to note, the models have been gradually been shifting northward. The AVNI (GFS) is another outlier. As of right now, I don't belive Alex will travel the GFS' path, but I do have my track close the GFS. My track forecast is based on the models, my own analysis of the situation, and what other METs have been saying. My track has extreme South Texas and extreme North eastern Mexico in the path of the storm. The models may shift again to the north in the coming daysm or they may split. If they do shift north again, I don't think LA will be getting the full brunt but, Alex could head up to the
Mid-Upper Texas coast. I am 55% confident with my track forecast.




Intensity

The strength of Alex is somewhat becmomming more clear as well. With the envirnoment very favorable for development, I don't see how Alex cannot become a low end Cat 3 hurricane. However, as it is making its last landfall, it may weaken to a Cat 2 because the water temps along the coast there are cooler, than where ti made his first landfall. I do think gradual strenghting at first and then have a short burst of rapid intesfication. By 72 hours, it should peak at 115 MPH and then weakn to a Cat 2 hurricane 12 hours after that. By landfall, it should be low-mid Cat 2 range, and I a forecasting it to make landfall, the 96th hour. After landfall, I am pretty much in agreement with the other models of rapid weakening. For steady strengthening, I am inbetween the ICON and the LGEM models. The red line is my forecast.




I should have an update Monday.

Gorty

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4. Gorty
5:00 AM GMT on June 28, 2010
@CCkidoo

Alex is a big system. So you may get clouds and some showers from his outer bands. Can't rule out the possibility of a pssing Thunder strom as well.
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
3. Gorty
4:58 AM GMT on June 28, 2010
Quoting ajcamsmom2:
Thanks for putting this blog together for us...Very informative


Thank you so much!
Member Since: November 8, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 1058
2. CCkid00
4:57 AM GMT on June 28, 2010
according to your track.....i live near Baton Rouge, La.....would we get anything off of this?
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 322
1. ajcamsmom2
4:55 AM GMT on June 28, 2010
Thanks for putting this blog together for us...Very informative
Member Since: March 15, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 2492

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About Gorty

Hey all! I live in New England and I love tropical cyclones.