Gorty's Tropical/New England Weather Blog

Forecast Model help

By: Gorty, 3:38 AM GMT on October 07, 2013

I want to further my knowledge on forecast models, and if you anybody doesnt mind, can you answer some of my questions? Thanks in advance to whoever helped!

1. Of the EURO, GFS and NAM, which models has a cool and warm bias?

2a. When mets say energy is separated, what does the energy look like on the model and how can you tell when they combine? And at what level do they look at?

2b. What does the energy tell us?

3. Is it important to look at the temps at the 500 mb level?

4. What is the difference between vorticity at the 500 mb level and the 850 mb level?

5. What does the 500 mb and 850 mb vorticity tell me? Does the 500 mb level only show the upper level lows?

6. What does blocking look like on the models?

7. At the 850 mb level, what does it look like when it shows a wave and cant you see a wave on the 1000-500 mb charts?

8. Not model related but will still help: In the summer, what kind of weather is associated with upper level lows and surface lows?

9. When a met says "I dont think the GFS (or another model) is right". How does a met know to think that?

10. For the NAO and AO, is it still important for temps and tracks of storms for non-winter months (lets say for April-Nov.)? Again, not 100% model related, but knowing this will still be useful.

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About Gorty

Hey all! I live in New England and I love tropical cyclones.