Sea of Cortez Weather 09/15/09
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After the Sonrisa Weather it’s back to work.
The following is from my daily ham radio Report
Voice to Text……….
.Looking down into the Sea this morning it is virtually cloud free. Over on the mainland it looks like not a cloud in the sky from Sonora to the Border for the past 24 hours.
Looking south to the Riviera: If you drew a east west line from the cape crossing the Sea into Mexico, to the south of this line it is thunderbumper city all the way south to central America. And again, to the north it is pretty much thunderbumper free.
Now this morning we do have something cooking in our tropical kitchen. That area of convection I mentioned yesterday that was off to the west of Manzanillo. It has a tropical wave in front as well as one to the east of it. . Well yesterday afternoon it became an Invest. An Invest is an area of potential tropical development that has drawn the attention of the National Hurricane Center and they start collecting data in specialized data sets. Once a system has been designated as an Invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites. Of note, the designation of a system as an Invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone.
So this morning I am looking at Invest 97. It is still about 400 miles west of Manzanillo. It looks like the thunderbumper activity has diminished a bit in the past 24 hours. However the data collectors are saying that environmental conditions appear to be favorable for development and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two as this system moves slowly west-northwest at about 12mph. They are further saying that there is about a 50-50 chance of this system becoming Himicane Kevin during the next 48 hours.
Looking now at the computer tracking models: I’m looking at five different models, all showing a far different tracks. Jimena has shown us that with all their sophisticated modeling, sometimes THEY ARE WRONG.
I noted that in Stan’s Forecast this morning, the models he is using are taking this storm north along 115, and moving it off shore before it reaches land. Three of the models I’m looking as show this as well, and two do not and I’m a bit reluctant to pick one right now. Tomorrow’s data will probably give me a better idea of what is going to happen.
Leaving the tropical kitchen now and looking north to the west coast of America where there is not much going on weather-wise up there. Mostly clearing skies for California as that low that brought light rain to northern California as moved over into the Great Basin. Pretty much sunshine for the rest of the western conus. It looks like the monsoonal season is drying up for the southwest. Temps will cool again today for the southwest Tucson about 98 and Yuma around 101.
Back down here in Baja we will be have a day just like we have had for the past week. Moderate to light winds most likely with a southern flavor along with lots of sun. Heat indexes will be close to the century mark.
73s Y’All
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Don't chisel these forecasts in stone. This is an Amateur Endeavor. They, however, are normally very close.
DAILYS
NORTHERN CROSSING FORECAST:
TODAY : Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Baja side : Afternoon Winds: E 11-14
Center : Afternoon Winds: ESE 4-5
Guaymas side : Afternoon Winds: SE 6-7
TOMORROW: Wednesday, September 16, 2009
Baja side : Afternoon Winds: ENE 9-12
Center : Afternoon Winds: N 5-6
Guaymas side : Afternoon Winds: WNW 4-5
.
SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST:
TODAY : Tuesday, September 15, 2009
East Cape : Afternoon Winds: ESE 7-9
Center : Afternoon Winds: S 9-11
Mazatlan : Afternoon Winds: SSW 6-8
TOMORROW : Wednesday, September 16, 2009
East Cape : Afternoon Winds: ENE 5-6
Center : Afternoon Winds: SSW 6-8
Mazatlan : Afternoon Winds: WSW 6-8
.
….. 3 DAY FORECAST
Cedros Island to Cabo Falso
Cedros Island
Tuesday 9/15 Afternoon Winds: NW 16-21
Seas: Seas: WNW 4 feet at 12 sec.
Wednesday 9/16 Afternoon Winds: WNW 14-18
Seas: Seas: W 3 feet at 11 sec.
Thursday 9/17 Afternoon Winds: WNW 12-16
Seas: Seas: SSW 3 feet at 10 sec.
ABREOJOS
Tuesday 9/15 Afternoon Winds: WNW 15-19
Seas: Seas: WNW 5 feet at 12 sec.
Wednesday 9/16 Afternoon Winds: W 15-19
Seas: Seas: WSW 5 feet at 11 sec.
Thursday 9/17 Afternoon Winds: WSW 12-16
Seas: Seas: S 4 feet at 10 sec.
Mag Bay
Tuesday 9/15 Afternoon Winds: WNW 11-14
Seas: Seas: WNW 6 feet at 13 sec.
Wednesday 9/16 Afternoon Winds: WNW 12-15
Seas: Seas: WSW 6 feet at 11 sec.
Thursday 9/17 Afternoon Winds: SE 10-13
Seas: Seas: SSW 5 feet at 10 sec.
Cabo Falso
Tuesday 9/15 Afternoon Winds: NW 6-7
Seas: Seas: WNW 7 feet at 13 sec.
Wednesday 9/16 Afternoon Winds: SW 5-6
Seas: Seas: WNW 7 feet at 12 sec.
Thursday 9/17 Afternoon Winds: ENE 7-9
Seas: Seas: SW 5 feet at 11 sec.
. *STATION LISTINGS
* Weather Underground Stations
Legend: oc-Over Cast r-Rain t-Thunderstorm f-Fog
*Puerto Peanaco Casa Weez:
Morning Winds: SW 5 to 7 knots
Afternoon Winds: SSW 8-10
Sunrise Temp.: 84 °
Daily High Temperature: 92 °
Yesterday's Rainfall:
Sunrise Bar: 1010
*San Filepe, Campo Diamante :
Morning Winds: E 5 to 7 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 9-12
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature:
Yesterday's Rainfall:
Sunrise Bar: 0
Gonzoga Bay Pappa Fernandez Landing. :
Morning Winds: NW 1 to 2 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 12-15
Sunrise Temp.: 77 °
Daily High Temperature: 103°
Yesterday's Rainfall:
Sunrise Bar: 1012
*Bay of LA. :
Morning Winds: W 3 to 5 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 11-14
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: °
Yesterday's Rainfall:
Sunrise Bar: 0
San Franciscito Bay :
Morning Winds: SW 1 to 1 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 10-13
Santa Rosalia :
Morning Winds: ENE 3 to 4 knots
Afternoon Winds: E 10-13
Sunrise Temp.: 79 °
Daily High Temperature: 95°
Yesterday's Rainfall: n/a
Sunrise Bar: 1012
*Mulegé : Hurricane Damage to station
Morning Winds: ENE 4 to 6 knots
Afternoon Winds: E 11-14
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: n/a°
Yesterday's Rainfall:
Sunrise Bar: 0
*San Carlos
Morning Winds: WSW 1 to 2 knots
Afternoon Winds: WNW 4-5
Sunrise Temp.: 80 °
Daily High Temperature: 93°
Yesterday's Rainfall:
Sunrise Bar: 1010
Pt Concepcion :
Morning Winds: NE 5 to 7 knots
Afternoon Winds: ENE 9-12
Punta Chivato :
Morning Winds: ENE 3 to 4 knots
Afternoon Winds: E 12-15
*El Burro Cove in Concepcion Bay
Morning Winds: ENE 4 to 6 knots
Afternoon Winds: E 11-14
Sunrise Temp.: 82 °
Daily High Temperature: 94°
Yesterday's Rainfall:
Sunrise Bar: 1012
Sunrise Sea Temperature: 83°
Loreto :
Morning Winds: E 3 to 3 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 11-14
Sunrise Temp.: 82 °
Daily High Temperature: 94°
Yesterday's Rainfall:
Sunrise Bar: 1012
San Lorenzo Channel :
Morning Winds: N 2 to 3 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 8-10
La Paz: 12K Cormwells forecast this evening
Morning Winds: NNE 3 to 5 knots
Afternoon Winds: E 9-12
Sunrise Temp.: 79 °
Daily High Temperature: °
Yesterday's Rainfall:
Sunrise Bar: 1014
*La Ventana Baja Joe's :
Morning Winds: ENE 3 to 4 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 7-9
Sunrise Temp.: 81 °
Daily High Temperature: 90°
Yesterday's Rainfall:
Sunrise Bar: 1010
*Los Barriles Helmut's World : T&H Data not available at this time
Morning Winds: ESE 3 to 4 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 6-8
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: °
Yesterday's Rainfall:
Sunrise Bar: 0
Cabo Pulmo : Morning Winds: SSE 4 to 6 knots
Afternoon Winds: SSE 7-9
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 11 sec.
*Cabo San Lucas El Medano:
Morning Winds: SSE 5 to 7 knots
Afternoon Winds: SW 4-5
Sunrise Temp.: 79 °
Daily High Temperature: 92°
Yesterday's Rainfall:
Sunrise Bar: 1010
*Mazatlan, El Cid
Morning Winds: ESE 5 to 7 knots
Afternoon Winds: SSW 6-8
Sunrise Temp.: 79 °
Daily High Temperature: 90°
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0.01 in
Sunrise Bar: 0
*Puerta Vallarta , Café Roma
Morning Winds: ESE 6 to 9 knots
Afternoon Winds: SSE 8-10
Sunrise Temp.: 80 °
Daily High Temperature: 92°
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0.43 in
Sunrise Bar: 1014
Manzanillo :
Morning Winds: ESE 1 to 1 knots
Afternoon Winds: S 7-9
Sunrise Temp.: 79 °
Daily High Temperature: 91
Sunrise Bar: 1010
Ixtapa Zihuatanejo :
Morning Winds: WNW 2 to 3 knots
Afternoon Winds: W 9-11
Sunrise Temp.: 79 °
Daily High Temperature: 87
Sunrise Bar: 1014
Cabo Corrienties :
Morning Winds: ESE 8 to 11 knots
Afternoon Winds: SSE 11-14
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