Sea of Cortez/Baja Weather for 10/20/13

By: Geary , 1:25 PM GMT on October 20, 2013

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Sunday, October 20, 2013

Voice to Text

Looking down into the Sea this morning I can see that again the Sea of Cortez has been cloud free for the past 24 hours.
Looking south to the west coast of Mexico and the Mexican Riviera where from just south of Cabo Corrienties the weather is being influenced by a “Gonna-Be”. Solid cloud cover along with several thunderbumpers close to shore all the way south to around Zihuatanejo.
AT 5pm yesterday a National Hurricane Center advisory indicated that invest 97E could be forming as a Tropical Depression about 225 miles south of Acapulco.
Five hours later at around 10pm yesterday the National Hurricane Center advised that a Tropical Depression had formed.
At 3am this morning the Tropical Depression was upgraded to tropical storm Raymond, our 17th named storm of the year. It is progged to become a himicane within 48 hours, but with the speed of it’s development I would not be surprised if that happened sooner. From invest to tropical storm in about 11 hours.
Raymond has been honking along at around 15 mph and has traveled around 300 miles in the past 24 hours. He is currently 296 miles West of Manzanillo and 701 miles south of the cape.
Early model tracks have it slowing down to around 6 knots and heading toward the mainland until tomorrow. The models get a little sketchy then with most have it turning back to the west but hanging in the vicinity briefly as a himicane.
In the meantime there will be either a strong tropical storm or a himicane meandering near the SW coast of Mexico for the next several days. Heavy rainfall from this system will likely spread northward into south-central Mexico during the next several days giving cause to life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides.
The government has initially posted storm advisories along the coast but will most likely upgrade these as Raymond moves closer to shore and intensifies.
That’s what is going on in our hood. Looking now north to the west coast of America where not much has changed or will change for at least the first half of the week. High pressure will bring warm and dry conditions to most of the west coast today.
The only possible fly in the ointment is a large low I can see swirling out in the Pacific. It is progged to move into southern California late in the week however no rain is currently forecast for the southland this week, just a thickening of the marine layer.
Looking now over to the southwest where the strong high pressure over the Great Basin will shift east into the plains states by the middle of next week. This will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderbumpers across the White Mountains on Thursday. Otherwise dry conditions will prevail this week. So low humidity in the 18/20% ranges and chilly nights. Daytime highs will be near normal and warm a few degrees into next weekend.
That’s what is happening to the north of us. Back on this side of the Fence in general it looks like very moderate winds today and Monday then picking up to the high teens on Tuesday.
Here are the wind details for the 3-day forecast period.
The northern Sea: low teens from the NE today and Sunday the around 17 from the NW on Tuesday.
The Guaymas side of the central Sea: NW for the next 3 days. Today and Monday mid teens, Tuesday around 20.
The Baja side of the central Sea: low teens from the NW today. Low teens tomorrow from the NE then high teens on Tuesday from the NW again.
Puerto Escondido: Low teens from the NE for the 3-day forecast period.
The southern Sea, the San Lorenzo Channel, and the nearby islands. Same thing Low teens from the NE for the 3-day forecast period.
La Paz: about the same but picking up to around 16 knots on Tuesday from the NW.
The East Cape: NW for the next 3 days. Today and tomorrow mid teens picking up to around 21 on Tuesday.
The Mexican Riviera: Mazatlan to Cabo Corrienties mostly light NW. South of the cape all bets are off with Raymond in the hood. Interests from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrienties should prepare for the possibility of this storm making landfall. This could be an ugly storm!

73s Y’all



Sunday, October 20, 2013
Don't chisel these forecasts in stone. This is an Amateur Endeavor.
………...DAILYS………...
ALL winds are in Knots.
NORTHERN CROSSING FORECAST:
TODAY : Sunday, October 20, 2013
Baja Side : Afternoon Winds: NNW 11-14
CENTER : Afternoon Winds: WNW 10-13
Guaymas Side : Afternoon Winds: WNW 13-17
TOMORROW: Monday, October 21, 2013
Baja side : Afternoon Winds: N 10-13
Center : Afternoon Winds: NW 8-10
Guaymas side : Afternoon Winds: WNW 12-15
.
SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST:
TODAY : Sunday, October 20, 2013
East Cape : Afternoon Winds: NNW 11-14
Center : Afternoon Winds: N 5-6
Mazatlan : Afternoon Winds: SSW 6-7
TOMORROW : Monday, October 21, 2013
East Cape : Afternoon Winds: NW 12-15
Center : Afternoon Winds: NW 7-9
Mazatlan : Afternoon Winds: WNW 6-7
.
….. 3 DAY FORECAST (OUTSIDE)…...
Ensenada
Sunday 10/20 Afternoon Winds: WNW 9-12
Seas: W 3 feet at 18 seconds
Monday 10/21 Afternoon Winds: WNW 9-12
Seas: WNW 3 feet at 22 seconds
Tuesday 10/22 Afternoon Winds: WNW 10-13
Seas: WNW 4 feet at 18 seconds

Point San Quintin
Sunday 4/21 Afternoon Winds: NW 14-18
Seas: Seas: W 4 feet at 13 seconds
Monday 10/21 Afternoon Winds: NW 13-17
Seas: WNW 4 feet at 16 seconds
Tuesday 10/22 Afternoon Winds: WNW 13-17
Seas: WNW 6 feet at 19 seconds

Turtle Bay
Sunday 10/20 Afternoon Winds: WNW 14-18
Seas: NW 2 feet at 10 seconds
Monday 10/21 Afternoon Winds: WNW 12-15
Seas: NW 2 feet at 14 seconds
Tuesday 10/22 Afternoon Winds: WNW 13-17
Seas: NW 3 feet at 19 seconds

Cedros Island
Sunday 10/20 Afternoon Winds: NW 12-15
Seas: WSW 2 feet at 13 seconds
Monday 10/21 Afternoon Winds: NW 10-13
Seas: WNW 2 feet at 23 seconds
Tuesday 10/22 Afternoon Winds: WNW 11-14
Seas: WNW 3 feet at 19 seconds

ABREOJOS
Sunday 10/20 Afternoon Winds: WNW 15-20
Seas: SSW 3 feet at 15 seconds
Monday 10/21 Afternoon Winds: WNW 12-16
Seas: SW 3 feet at 17 seconds
Tuesday 10/22 Afternoon Winds: WNW 14-18
Seas: WNW 4 feet at 20 seconds

Mag Bay
Sunday 10/20 Afternoon Winds: WNW 11-14
Seas: SSW 3 feet at 14 seconds
Monday 10/21 Afternoon Winds: WNW 12-15
Seas: SW 3 feet at 16 seconds
Tuesday 10/22 Afternoon Winds: WNW 13-17
Seas: WNW 5 feet at 20 seconds

*CABO FALSO (Pedregal)
Today's Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 0

Sunday 10/20 Morning Winds: NW 2 to 2 knots
Afternoon Winds: W 9-11
Seas: Seas: WSW 3 feet at 12 seconds
Monday 10/21 Afternoon Winds: WNW 10-13
Seas: SW 3 feet at 16 seconds
Tuesday 10/22 Afternoon Winds: WNW 12-15
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 15 seconds


. SEA OF CORTEZ
* indicates WeatherUnderground Station


*Puerto Penasco Casa Weez:
Morning Winds: NW 4 to 5 knots
Afternoon Winds: W 11-14
Sunrise Temp.: 57 °
Daily High Temperature: 84 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: Calm
Sunrise Bar: 1014

*Bahia Kino Nuevo :
Morning Winds: WNW 6 to 8 knots
Afternoon Winds: NW 10-13
Sunrise Temp.: n/a °
Daily High Temperature: °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1012


*San Filepe:
Morning Winds: NNE 4 to 5 knots
Afternoon Winds: ENE 6-8
Sunrise Temp.: 60 °
Daily High Temperature: 83 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1014

*Gonzoga Bay Pappa Fernandez Landing. :
Morning Winds: NW 5 to 7 knots
Afternoon Winds: ENE 9-11
Sunrise Temp.: 68 °
Daily High Temperature: 84 °
Yesterday's Rainfall:
#VALUE!

*Bay of LA. :
Morning Winds: NW 7 to 10 knots
Afternoon Winds: NNE 9-11
Sunrise Temp.: 63 °
Daily High Temperature: 91 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1012

San Franciscito Bay :
Morning Winds: NNW 4 to 6 knots
Afternoon Winds: NNE 8-10

Santa Rosalia :
Morning Winds: NW 7 to 10 knots
Afternoon Winds: NNW 10-13
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
#VALUE!

*Mulegé : WU Station closed 8/1/13
Morning Winds: NW 8 to 11 knots
Afternoon Winds: NNW 11-14
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 0

*San Carlos
Morning Winds: NW 4 to 6 knots
Afternoon Winds: WNW 12-15
Sunrise Temp.: 70 °
Daily High Temperature: 86 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1012

Pt Concepcion :
Morning Winds: NNW 6 to 8 knots
Afternoon Winds: N 10-13

Punta Chivato :
Morning Winds: NW 6 to 9 knots
Afternoon Winds: NNW 9-12

*El Burro Cove in Concepcion Bay
Morning Winds Winds: NW 8 to 11 knots
Afternoon Winds: NNW 11-14
Sunrise Temp.: 69 °
Daily High Temperature: 83 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1014
Sunrise Sea Temperature: 0

Puerto Escondido Juncalitoville
Morning Winds: NNW 6 to 8 knots
Afternoon Winds: NE 10-13
Sunrise Temp.: 73 °
Daily High Temperature: 86 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1012

San Lorenzo Channel :
Morning Winds: NNE 5 to 7 knots
Afternoon Winds: NE 9-11

La Paz:
Morning Winds: N 7 to 10 knots
Afternoon Winds: N 10-13
Sunrise Temp.: 71 °
Daily High Temperature: 90 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1014

*La Ventana Baja Joe's :
Morning Winds: NNW 8 to 10 knots
Afternoon Winds: NNW 11-14
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 0


*Los Barriles :
Morning Winds: N 8 to 10 knots
Afternoon Winds: N 12-15
Sunrise Temp.: 70 °
Daily High Temperature: 84 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1018

Cabo Pulmo :
Morning Winds: N 7 to 10 knots
Afternoon Winds: N 11-14
Seas: SSE 2 feet at 9 seconds

*Cabo San Lucas :
Morning Winds: NE 1 to 2 knots
Afternoon Winds: WSW 6-7
Sunrise Temp.: 72 °
Daily High Temperature: 91 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1012

MEXICAN RIVIERA
*Mazatlan,
Morning Winds: NNE 3 to 3 knots
Afternoon Winds: SSW 6-7
Sunrise Temp.: 79 °
Daily High Temperature: 86 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1012

*Puerta Vallarta:
Morning Winds: NE 3 to 4 knots
Afternoon Winds: WNW 6-7
Sunrise Temp.: 76 °
Daily High Temperature: 88 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1010

Manzanillo :
Morning Winds: NE 1 to 2 knots
Afternoon Winds: WSW 8-10
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 0
Ixtapa Zihuatanejo :
Morning Winds: SW 7 to 9 knots
Afternoon Winds: ENE 7-9
Sunrise Temp.: 73 °
Daily High Temperature: 87 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1008
Cabo Corrienties :
Morning Winds: ENE 3 to 4 knots
Afternoon Winds: WSW 5-6
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 15 seconds


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About Geary

I broadcast a daily Sea of Cortez weather forecast on 3.968mh. My window to the world is a satellite Antenna hung on a palm tree next to my palapa.

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Personal Weather Stations

El Burro Cove
Bahia Concepcion, BAJA SUR
Elevation: 0 ft
Temperature: 89.7 °F
Dew Point: 75.9 °F
Humidity: 64%
Wind: 2.0 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 5.0 mph
Updated: 9:29 AM MDT on August 23, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations