Sea of Cortez/Baja Weather for 09/04/13

By: Geary , 1:10 PM GMT on September 04, 2013

Share this Blog
0
+

The Sonrisenet: The premier source for Sea of Cortez weather including hurricanes during the season..
Click here for the Sonrisa Net Weather Webpage
Click here for the Satellite WunderMap view of the Sea of Cortez


After the Sonrisa Weather it’s back to work.


This summary and the daily postings are now posted on the Sonrisanet webpage usually by 8:30 MDT daily.

The following is from my daily ham radio Report
And is now available as a podcast.
Click the “Listen to” button on the webpage


Wednesday, September 04, 2013

Voice to Text

Looking down into the Sea this morning I can see the yesterday afternoon storms started building over in Sonora starting just north of Mazatlan to Hermosillo. The storms just got bigger and bigger developed into a MCS covering the entire state. Remember a (MCS), mesoscale convective system is a complex of thunderbumpers that becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms but smaller than a hurricane.
Late in the evening this system started moving across the Sea. This morning a strong cell is still parked over the cape region to La Paz. Another looks to be back in the mountains SW of Concepcion Bay.
In the 7th inning of the A’s game, at a little after 10 last night, here in the cove had few wind gusts to almost 30 knots and winds to around 18 knots until around 1 o’clock this morning along with lightning and thunder to the north albeit no rain.
This morning it looks like the skies are clearing from around Puerto Escondido north.
Looking south to the west coast of Mexico and the Mexican Riviera I can see solid thunderbumper activity from Puerto Vallarta, where there is a big honk’n cell over it this morning, to Acapulco this morning.
Again this morning the ITCZ/Monsoon trough is quite active this morning.
Looking into our Tropical Kitchen this morning there is a low, (invest 99) around a hundred miles west of Zihuatanejo this morning. As of right now not much is happening there with only some light showers and a few thunderbumpers. It is however in the birthing zone for our tropical storms. It needs to become better organized if wants to be a player though. The National Hurricane Center is giving it a 50% chance of developing into a Tropical Depression in the next couple of days and a 70% chance of becoming a named storm in the next 5 days. The early tracks show this system moving well west of the cape next weekend. Two of the three models I use show this system not developing past a weak tropical storm. With no real agreement on what will develop we will have to wait and see.
Regardless this system, with it’s proximity to land, (only 100 miles off shore), will be producing some heavy rains and gusterly winds along the mainland coast.
Tropical waves are lined up across the Atlantic with one bumping into the Yucatan this morning bringing with it lots of rain for that region.
That’s what is going on in our hood. Looking now north to the west coast of America where at the top of this image I can see a strong low that has been off the Washington coast for a few days begin to move east. The main impact will be to increase the potential for significant rain in the Great Northwest from tomorrow through Friday.
With that low to the north exiting to the east the threat of showers in northern California has diminished. The north state should see a warming trend into the weekend with lots of sunshine.
Yesterday afternoon in southern California thunderbumpers filled the mountain and desert skies with lightning and thunder along with drenching downpours that produced flash flooding and debris flows in burn scared areas. A debris flow filled a normally dry creek that runs through Palm Springs and Cathedral City.
The storms faded with the setting sun leaving behind another clear warm night for the southland.
There is still a lot of moisture in the air and thunderbumper are in the forecast for today but not quite a strong as yesterday.
Looking now over to the southwest where drier air moving in from the east will limit the thunderbumper activity today through the end of the week. Tropical moisture may return over the weekend for an increase in monsoonal activities. Sunday look like the best chance of showers and thunderbumper to return to the Tucson area.
Meantime only in the higher elevations in Arizona and on this side of the Fence will there be much in the way of thunderbumper activity.
That’s what is going on to the north of us. Back on this side of the Fence it looks like two more days of light northerlies then moderate southerlies on Friday.
Here are the wind details for the 3-day forecast period.
The northern Sea: less than 10 today and tomorrow and low teens on Friday.
The Guaymas side of the central Sea: light SW winds today and tomorrow and then low teens from the SE on Friday.
The Baja side of the central Sea: light to moderate NE today and tomorrow and then high teens on Friday from the SE.
The southern Sea, the San Lorenzo Channel, La Paz and the nearby islands. Light mostly SE for the 3-day forecast period.
The East Cape: light NW today, then light SE Thursday and Friday.
The Mexican Riviera: Cabo Corrienties north light NW. Cabo Corrienties south to light today from the SE then the possibility of strong winds from a wanna-be low moving along coast close to shore. Interests in the region be advised. Heavy rain will also be a probability.

73s Y’all

Wednesday, September 04, 2013
Don't chisel these forecasts in stone. This is an Amateur Endeavor.
………...DAILYS………...
ALL winds are in Knots.
NORTHERN CROSSING FORECAST:
TODAY : Wednesday, September 04, 2013
Baja Side : Afternoon Winds: ENE 7-9
CENTER : Afternoon Winds: ESE 9-11
Guaymas Side : Afternoon Winds: WSW 7-9
TOMORROW: Thursday, September 05, 2013
Baja side : Afternoon Winds: E 9-12
Center : Afternoon Winds: S 6-7
Guaymas side : Afternoon Winds: WSW 7-9
.
SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST:
TODAY : Wednesday, September 04, 2013
East Cape : Afternoon Winds: NNW 3-4
Center : Afternoon Winds: SW 3-4
Mazatlan : Afternoon Winds: WSW 9-12
TOMORROW : Thursday, September 05, 2013
East Cape : Afternoon Winds: SE 8-10
Center : Afternoon Winds: NNW 3-3
Mazatlan : Afternoon Winds: W 9-11
.
….. 3 DAY FORECAST (OUTSIDE)…...
Ensenada
Wednesday 9/4 Afternoon Winds: NW 13-17
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 12 seconds
Thursday 9/5 Afternoon Winds: NW 13-17
Seas: S 5 feet at 13 seconds
Friday 9/6 Afternoon Winds: WNW 9-11
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 12 second

Point San Quintin
Sunday 4/21 Afternoon Winds: WNW 15-19
Seas: Seas: WNW 5 feet at 11 seconds
Thursday 9/5 Afternoon Winds: WNW 13-17
Seas: WNW 5 feet at 9 seconds
Friday 9/6 Afternoon Winds: WNW 12-15
Seas: WNW 5 feet at 8 seconds

Turtle Bay
Wednesday 9/4 Afternoon Winds: WNW 13-17
Seas: NW 3 feet at 11 seconds
Thursday 9/5 Afternoon Winds: WNW 13-17
Seas: NW 3 feet at 9 seconds
Friday 9/6 Afternoon Winds: WNW 14-18
Seas: WNW 3 feet at 8 second

Cedros Island
Wednesday 9/4 Afternoon Winds: NW 12-15
Seas: W 2 feet at 11 seconds
Thursday 9/5 Afternoon Winds: WNW 10-13
Seas: WNW 2 feet at 9 seconds
Friday 9/6 Afternoon Winds: WNW 10-13
Seas: WNW 2 feet at 8 seconds

ABREOJOS
Wednesday 9/4 Afternoon Winds: WNW 15-20
Seas: WSW 4 feet at 11 seconds
Thursday 9/5 Afternoon Winds: W 12-16
Seas: SSW 3 feet at 13 seconds
Friday 9/6 Afternoon Winds: W 12-16
Seas: SW 3 feet at 15 second

Mag Bay
Wednesday 9/4 Afternoon Winds: WNW 14-18
Seas: SW 4 feet at 12 seconds
Thursday 9/5 Afternoon Winds: WNW 10-13
Seas: WNW 3 feet at 11 seconds
Friday 9/6 Afternoon Winds: SW 4-5
Seas: SW 3 feet at 15 second

*CABO FALSO (Pedregal)
Today's Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 0

Wednesday 9/4 Morning Winds: NW 9 to 12 knots
Afternoon Winds: NW 11-14
Seas: Seas: SSW 4 feet at 12 seconds
Thursday 9/5 Afternoon Winds: SE 3-4
Seas: W 3 feet at 11 seconds
Friday 9/6 Afternoon Winds: E 20-26
Seas: SE 7 feet at 8 seconds


. SEA OF CORTEZ
* indicates WeatherUnderground Station


*Puerto Penasco Casa Weez:
Morning Winds: S 3 to 4 knots
Afternoon Winds: WSW 12-16
Sunrise Temp.: 83 °
Daily High Temperature: 94 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: Calm
Sunrise Bar: 1010

*Bahia Kino Nuevo :
Morning Winds: SE 3 to 4 knots
Afternoon Winds: WSW 7-9
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1012


*San Filepe:
Morning Winds: S 0 to 0 knots
Afternoon Winds: SE 7-9
Sunrise Temp.: 90 °
Daily High Temperature: 98 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1010

*Gonzoga Bay Pappa Fernandez Landing. :
Morning Winds: ENE 4 to 5 knots
Afternoon Winds: NNE 9-12
Sunrise Temp.: 86 °
Daily High Temperature: 97 °
Yesterday's Rainfall:
#VALUE!

*Bay of LA. :
Morning Winds: ENE 1 to 1 knots
Afternoon Winds: N 7-9
Sunrise Temp.: 81 °
Daily High Temperature: 99 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1012

San Franciscito Bay :
Morning Winds: ESE 2 to 2 knots
Afternoon Winds: E 9-12

Santa Rosalia :
Morning Winds: E 4 to 6 knots
Afternoon Winds: E 6-7
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
#VALUE!

*Mulegé : WU Station closed 8/1/13
Morning Winds: E 6 to 9 knots
Afternoon Winds: ENE 7-9
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 0

*San Carlos
Morning Winds: SSW 4 to 5 knots
Afternoon Winds: WSW 7-9
Sunrise Temp.: 79 °
Daily High Temperature: 94 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0.24 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1010

Pt Concepcion :
Morning Winds: E 3 to 5 knots
Afternoon Winds: E 9-12

Punta Chivato :
Morning Winds: E 4 to 6 knots
Afternoon Winds: E 7-9

*El Burro Cove in Concepcion Bay
Morning Winds Winds: E 6 to 9 knots
Afternoon Winds: ENE 7-9
Sunrise Temp.: 84 °
Daily High Temperature: 95 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1012
Sunrise Sea Temperature: 0

Puerto Escondido Juncalitoville
Morning Winds: ESE 4 to 5 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 10-13
Sunrise Temp.: 80 °
Daily High Temperature: 97 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1010

San Lorenzo Channel :
Morning Winds: ESE 1 to 1 knots
Afternoon Winds: E 7-9

La Paz:
Morning Winds: WSW 3 to 4 knots
Afternoon Winds: ENE 6-7
Sunrise Temp.: 78 °
Daily High Temperature: 103 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1010

*La Ventana Baja Joe's :
Morning Winds: WNW 2 to 3 knots
Afternoon Winds: NNW 3-4
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 0


*Los Barriles :
Morning Winds: N 3 to 4 knots
Afternoon Winds: NW 3-4
Sunrise Temp.: 76 °
Daily High Temperature: 90 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1010

Cabo Pulmo :
Morning Winds: NE 3 to 5 knots
Afternoon Winds: NW 5-6
Seas: S 2 feet at 12 seconds

*Cabo San Lucas :
Morning Winds: NNW 4 to 5 knots
Afternoon Winds: NW 6-7
Sunrise Temp.: 85 °
Daily High Temperature: 94 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1008

MEXICAN RIVIERA
*Mazatlan,
Morning Winds: SSE 5 to 7 knots
Afternoon Winds: WSW 9-12
Sunrise Temp.: 80 °
Daily High Temperature: 88 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0.08 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1010

*Puerta Vallarta:
Morning Winds: NE 2 to 2 knots
Afternoon Winds: NW 7-9
Sunrise Temp.: 75 °
Daily High Temperature: 89 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0.15 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1010

Manzanillo :
Morning Winds: E 10 to 13 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 11-14
Sunrise Temp.: 76 °
Daily High Temperature: 87 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1010
Ixtapa Zihuatanejo :
Morning Winds: SSE 8 to 11 knots
Afternoon Winds: SE 10-13
Sunrise Temp.: 77 °
Daily High Temperature: 86 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1008
Cabo Corrienties :
Morning Winds: N 4 to 6 knots
Afternoon Winds: WNW 5-6
Seas: SW 4 feet at 18 seconds


Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

1. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:58 PM GMT on September 05, 2013
Geary has created a new entry.

Viewing: 1 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About Geary

I broadcast a daily Sea of Cortez weather forecast on 3.968mh. My window to the world is a satellite Antenna hung on a palm tree next to my palapa.

Geary's Recent Photos

Personal Weather Stations

El Burro Cove
Bahia Concepcion, BAJA SUR
Elevation: 0 ft
Temperature: 88.8 °F
Dew Point: 78.2 °F
Humidity: 71%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Updated: 7:17 PM MDT on September 22, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations