Sea of Cortez/Baja Weather for 08/23/13

By: Geary , 1:15 PM GMT on August 23, 2013

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This summary and the daily postings are now posted on the Sonrisanet webpage usually by 8:30 MDT daily.

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Friday, August 23, 2013

Voice to Text

BAD WEEKEND TO PLAN A PICNIC!

Looking down into the Sea this morning I can see that it took a long time for those whispys to clear yesterday morning. After that the skies over Baja were pretty much cloud free.
Looking over to Sonora I can see there has not been a lot of thunderbumper activity in the state for the past 24 hours. Well, there has been a few small cells build and dissipate but nothing moved out into the Sea. There were several small thumpers that moved across the Fence in the very far NE corner of the Sea early last night though.
Looking now to the west coast of Mexico and the Mexican Riviera where I can see that there is fairly heavy thunderbumper activity from around Puerto Vallarta to Manzanillo this morning. From there south there are just some remnant clouds along the coast to the Tehuantepec where I can see a high topped thumper parked right over the top of the Gulf this morning.
A tropical wave will pass over the Yucatan and Guatemala later today and will increase the winds in the Gulf to just below advisory levels then drop back to the mid low 20s by tomorrow night. Seas will be running about 8 feet in the gulf.
Looking now in our Tropical Kitchen where that low that we have been looking for the past 4 days expecting it come romping up into a hurricane will not. It was upgraded yesterday afternoon to a tropical depression with winds not expected to exceed around 40 knots during it’s life time. Another scenario is for it to briefly become a tropical storm later today then back to a tropical depression tomorrow. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that it is packing a lot of moisture and today will start to move NNW skirting the cape and paralleling the Baja peninsula.
There will be a surge of high seas funnel into the mouth of the Sea of Cortez today extending a ways north in the Sea.
It looks to me like the main danger from this storm will be the possibility of heavy rains and flash flooding along the western coast of the Baja peninsula and possible rains extending to the eastern Baja shores.
The current track has it passing the cape today and to around Mag Bay by Sunday morning, then Monday and Tuesday around Cedros Island. THEN as a remnant low passing over the Baja peninsula around Gonzaga bay and moving up into Arizona.
Southern California is also forecasting so moisture from this system next week.
There are a couple of Tropical Waves traversing the Atlantic this morning but are too far to east to be of any concern right now.
That’s what is going on in our hood. Looking now north to the west coast of America where northing is happening weather wise. Seattle may get a sprinkle or two over the weekend but the rest of the west coast will be dry and August warm.
Looking over to the southwest they expect that the decaying tropical storm will bring an increase in the thunderbumper activity over the weekend especially Sunday. They are still looking to next week for a return of the monsoon. Temperatures will be about average for this time of year and that is around 100. Tucson will be around 104 today and will be seeing a cooling trend into the weekend. .
That’s what is gong on to the north of us. Back on this side of the Fence it does not look like it will be a pleasant weekend. High Sea to the south, heavy rains to the west, and high winds in the Sea. Bad weekend to plan a parade or picnic. Today however will be the lull before the storm.
Here are the wind details for the 3-day forecast period.
The northern Sea: SE winds for the next 3 days. Today mid teens, tomorrow mid 20s, and Sunday low 20s, high teens.
The Guaymas side of the central Sea: SE winds for the 3-day forecast period. Today mid teens, tomorrow mid 20s, Sunday high 20s.
The Baja side of the central Sea: today and tomorrow SE and SW on Sunday. Today mid teens, tomorrow 38-40(that’s in the Gale ranges) and Sunday around 25 knots.
The southern Sea, the San Lorenzo Channel, and the nearby islands. The mid to low 20s for the next three days. Today and tomorrow SE and SW on Sunday.
La Paz: around 30 for today and tomorrow from the SE and SW on Sunday light winds from the SW.
The East Cape: around 30 today and tomorrow from the SE and then light winds from the NE on Sunday.
The Mexican Riviera will be seeing light to moderate SW winds for the 3-day forecast period.

73s Y’all



Friday, August 23, 2013
Don't chisel these forecasts in stone. This is an Amateur Endeavor.
………...DAILYS………...
ALL winds are in Knots.
NORTHERN CROSSING FORECAST:
TODAY : Friday, August 23, 2013
Baja Side : Afternoon Winds: ESE 14-18
CENTER : Afternoon Winds: SE 12-16
Guaymas Side : Afternoon Winds: S 12-16
TOMORROW: Saturday, August 24, 2013
Baja side : Afternoon Winds: ESE 29-38
Center : Afternoon Winds: ESE 18-23
Guaymas side : Afternoon Winds: E 19-25
.
SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST:
TODAY : Friday, August 23, 2013
East Cape : Afternoon Winds: SE 23-30
Center : Afternoon Winds: SSE 17-22
Mazatlan : Afternoon Winds: SSE 18-23
TOMORROW : Saturday, August 24, 2013
East Cape : Afternoon Winds: SSE 24-32
Center : Afternoon Winds: SE 21-28
Mazatlan : Afternoon Winds: SSE 21-28
.
….. 3 DAY FORECAST (OUTSIDE)…...
Ensenada
Friday 8/23 Afternoon Winds: NW 12-16
Seas: SSW 3 feet at 13 seconds
Saturday 8/24 Afternoon Winds: NW 12-16
Seas: S 4 feet at 16 seconds
Sunday 8/25 Afternoon Winds: WNW 12-16
Seas: S 5 feet at 14 seconds

Point San Quintin
Sunday 4/21 Afternoon Winds: NW 15-20
Seas: Seas: WNW 4 feet at 10 seconds
Saturday 8/24 Afternoon Winds: NW 12-15
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 15 seconds
Sunday 8/25 Afternoon Winds: WNW 16-21
Seas: S 5 feet at 14 seconds

Turtle Bay
Friday 8/23 Afternoon Winds: WNW 16-21
Seas: NW 3 feet at 10 seconds
Saturday 8/24 Afternoon Winds: ENE 15-20
Seas: NW 2 feet at 10 seconds
Sunday 8/25 Afternoon Winds: WNW 6-7
Seas: WNW 2 feet at 8 seconds

Cedros Island
Friday 8/23 Afternoon Winds: WNW 13-17
Seas: W 2 feet at 10 seconds
Saturday 8/24 Afternoon Winds: ENE 16-21
Seas: SSW 3 feet at 15 seconds
Sunday 8/25 Afternoon Winds: WNW 12-16
Seas: SSW 3 feet at 9 seconds

ABREOJOS
Friday 8/23 Afternoon Winds: W 13-17
Seas: SSE 4 feet at 10 seconds
Saturday 8/24 Afternoon Winds: ENE 15-20
Seas: SSE 7 feet at 10 seconds
Sunday 8/25 Afternoon Winds: WSW 18-24
Seas: SSW 6 feet at 14 seconds

Mag Bay
Friday 8/23 Afternoon Winds: ESE 16-21
Seas: S 6 feet at 11 seconds
Saturday 8/24 Afternoon Winds: SSE 24-31
Seas: SSE 10 feet at 10 seconds
Sunday 8/25 Afternoon Winds: SW 13-17
Seas: SSW 6 feet at 13 seconds

*CABO FALSO (Pedregal)
Today's Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 0

Friday 8/23 Morning Winds: ESE 15 to 21 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 21-27
Seas: Seas: S 10 feet at 10 seconds
Saturday 8/24 Afternoon Winds: S 19-25
Seas: SSW 10 feet at 10 seconds
Sunday 8/25 Afternoon Winds: WSW 9-11
Seas: SW 6 feet at 8 seconds


. SEA OF CORTEZ
* indicates WeatherUnderground Station


*Puerto Penasco Casa Weez:
Morning Winds: WSW 4 to 6 knots
Afternoon Winds: WSW 15-20
Sunrise Temp.: 82 °
Daily High Temperature: 95 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 6NNW
Sunrise Bar: 1008

*Bahia Kino Nuevo :
Morning Winds: SSE 9 to 12 knots
Afternoon Winds: SSW 9-12
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1008


*San Filepe:
Morning Winds: SE 6 to 8 knots
Afternoon Winds: SE 10-13
Sunrise Temp.: 89 °
Daily High Temperature: 98 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1008

*Gonzoga Bay Pappa Fernandez Landing. :
Morning Winds: ESE 5 to 7 knots
Afternoon Winds: E 11-14
Sunrise Temp.: 85 °
Daily High Temperature: 95 °
Yesterday's Rainfall:
#VALUE!

*Bay of LA. :
Morning Winds: SE 6 to 8 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 9-11
Sunrise Temp.: 82 °
Daily High Temperature: 89 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1006

San Franciscito Bay :
Morning Winds: ESE 10 to 13 knots
Afternoon Winds: E 10-13

Santa Rosalia :
Morning Winds: SE 9 to 12 knots
Afternoon Winds: SE 12-16
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
#VALUE!

*Mulegé : WU Station closed 8/1/13
Morning Winds: SE 8 to 11 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 14-18
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 0

*San Carlos
Morning Winds: ESE 13 to 18 knots
Afternoon Winds: E 19-25
Sunrise Temp.: 78 °
Daily High Temperature: 92 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1010

Pt Concepcion :
Morning Winds: ESE 15 to 20 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 29-38

Punta Chivato :
Morning Winds: ESE 9 to 13 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 12-16

*El Burro Cove in Concepcion Bay
Morning Winds Winds: SE 8 to 11 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 14-18
Sunrise Temp.: 88 °
Daily High Temperature: 95 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1010
Sunrise Sea Temperature: 0

Puerto Escondido Juncalitoville
Morning Winds: SE 8 to 11 knots
Afternoon Winds: SSE 12-16
Sunrise Temp.: 79 °
Daily High Temperature: 92 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1010

San Lorenzo Channel :
Morning Winds: ESE 13 to 17 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 17-22

La Paz:
Morning Winds: ESE 18 to 24 knots
Afternoon Winds: SE 22-29
Sunrise Temp.: 83 °
Daily High Temperature: 94 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1008

*La Ventana Baja Joe's :
Morning Winds: SE 18 to 24 knots
Afternoon Winds: SE 23-30
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 0


*Los Barriles :
Morning Winds: SE 21 to 28 knots
Afternoon Winds: SE 24-31
Sunrise Temp.: 81 °
Daily High Temperature: 89 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1008

Cabo Pulmo :
Morning Winds: SE 20 to 28 knots
Afternoon Winds: SE 23-30
Seas: SSE 9 feet at 8 seconds

*Cabo San Lucas :
Morning Winds: ESE 19 to 25 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 22-29
Sunrise Temp.: 79 °
Daily High Temperature: 90 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0.21 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1008

MEXICAN RIVIERA
*Mazatlan,
Morning Winds: SE 5 to 7 knots
Afternoon Winds: SSE 18-23
Sunrise Temp.: 80 °
Daily High Temperature: 89 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0.06 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1010

*Puerta Vallarta:
Morning Winds: SSE 6 to 8 knots
Afternoon Winds: SE 6-7
Sunrise Temp.: 78 °
Daily High Temperature: 88 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1010

Manzanillo :
Morning Winds: ENE 3 to 4 knots
Afternoon Winds: SW 9-11
Sunrise Temp.: 77 °
Daily High Temperature: 82 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1012
Ixtapa Zihuatanejo :
Morning Winds: NNW 2 to 3 knots
Afternoon Winds: W 11-14
Sunrise Temp.: 77 °
Daily High Temperature: 87 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1010
Cabo Corrienties :
Morning Winds: SE 8 to 11 knots
Afternoon Winds: SSE 13-17
Seas: WSW 8 feet at 10 seconds


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About Geary

I broadcast a daily Sea of Cortez weather forecast on 3.968mh. My window to the world is a satellite Antenna hung on a palm tree next to my palapa.

Geary's Recent Photos

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Personal Weather Stations

El Burro Cove
Bahia Concepcion, BAJA SUR
Elevation: 0 ft
Temperature: 67.4 °F
Dew Point: 53.9 °F
Humidity: 62%
Wind: 9.0 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 15.0 mph
Updated: 9:27 AM MST on December 19, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations