Sea of Cortez/Baja Weather for 08/01/13

By: Geary , 1:16 PM GMT on August 01, 2013

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This summary and the daily postings are now posted on the Sonrisanet webpage usually by 8:30 MDT daily.

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Thursday, August 01, 2013

Voice to Text

Looking down into the Sea this morning first with the 24 hour loop I can see that there has been and still is a lot of activity in the Sea of Cortez. Starting around 10 O’clock last night a MCS’s started to develop as a thunderstorm around Puerto Vallarta . Within a short period of time it spread north as an MCS’s (mesoscale Convective system) which is a complex of thunderbumpers that has become better organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderbumpers but smaller than a hurricane. By 11 O’clock last night it had stretched across the Sea and this image was showing it on top of La Paz.
After midnight the strength continued but did not get stronger and it has remained about the same strength since then. This image is showing a large cell spread out from La Paz on the Baja peninsula to around Hermosillo in Sonora. Debris clouds spread north to the Bay of LA.
The winds here in Concepción Bay started around 4am and have been in the 18-24 knot ranges. There was lots of lightning but too far away to hear any thunder until around 6:30 where I could start Tehuantepec here some thunder in the area. We also started to see some sprinkles about that time that have continued up until this broadcast.
I checked La Paz and they were having only 12-14 knot winds at 4am with their highest gust being 16 knots overnight.
It looks like it is going to take a while for this system to wind down. In the meantime the Sea of Cortez will be rainy, windy with unpredictable gusts and cloudy. Guasave Radar is showing the system starting to decay at around 6am this morning.

This would NOT be a good morning to be moving around!

Looking south to the west coast of Mexico and the Mexican Riviera I can see there has been several thunderbumper working around the Puerto Vallarta and Cabo Corrienties area and further south around Zihuatanejo over night.
The Gulf of Tehuantepec is clear of any clouds this morning and is forecast to have light winds for the 3-day forecast period.
Looking out into the Eastern Pacific basin this morning we have Himicane Gil that is around 750 miles SW of the cape this morning as a CAT 1 Himicane. He is still in warm waters and stands a good chance of developing into a CAT 2 storm over the next couple of days.
On the heels of Gil we have invest 90E, a wanna-be. Brother Gill is sucking up most of the moisture in the region. 90 Echo will probably become a tropical storm Henriette today but will not make hurricane status.
Neither of these storms should pose any threat to land.
So lots going on in the Tropical Kitchen this morning. A MCS’s over in Sonora, a himicane and what will probably be a tropical storm later today. We’ll see?
Well, that’s what is going on in our hood. Looking now north to the west coast of America where at the top of this image off the coast of Washington there is a low that has been there for a couple of days and it’s starting to move east today. It will bring with it showers, mostly in the Cascades.
As the low moves east it could bring a chance of showers to extreme northern California but the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys will continue to have mostly clear skies and temperatures in the low to mid 90s into the weekend.
In southern California a low off the coast will create night and morning coastal fog and inland areas will be a tad gusterly through tomorrow. Saturday a high will press in from the east and reduce the marine layer into Monday. Temperatures next week will linger below normal with a warming trend on tap by midweek.
Looking now over to the southwest where the monsoon will be monsooning into early next week with gradually cooler temperatures.
There are a low of debris clouds in the region from the MCS that moved up to the Fence, but did not cross last night. The outflow from this will likely send more moisture into the southwest and they will see an uptick in there thunderbumper activity today. We’ll see?
That’s what is happening to the north of us. Back on this side of the Fence it is windy where I am this morning. There is a good lightning show off to the east and just sprinkles so far.
You can normally toss the forecasts in the can while we are experiencing one of these Sea of Cortez storms. Never the less here is today’s forecast. It looks like light to moderate southerlies for the 3-day forecast period.
Here are the wind details for the 3-day forecast period.
The northern Sea: Low teens from the SE for the next 3 days.
The Central Sea: mid teens from the SE, a bit lighter on the Sonoran side for the 3-day forecast period.
The southern Sea: around the islands and the San Lorenzo Channel light SW. La Paz mostly light SE for the next 3 days.
The East Cape: mostly light SE of ESE for the 3-day forecast period.
The Mexican Riviera: light to moderate SW for the next 3 days.
I repeat:
This would NOT be a good morning to be moving around!

73s Y’all

Thursday, August 01, 2013
Don't chisel these forecasts in stone. This is an Amateur Endeavor.
………...DAILYS………...
ALL winds are in Knots.
NORTHERN CROSSING FORECAST:
TODAY : Thursday, August 01, 2013
Baja Side : Afternoon Winds: ESE 13-17
CENTER : Afternoon Winds: ESE 12-15
Guaymas Side : Afternoon Winds: S 12-15
TOMORROW: Friday, August 02, 2013
Baja side : Afternoon Winds: E 12-15
Center : Afternoon Winds: SE 14-18
Guaymas side : Afternoon Winds: SSE 7-9
.
SOUTHERN CROSSING FORECAST:
TODAY : Thursday, August 01, 2013
East Cape : Afternoon Winds: ESE 8-10
Center : Afternoon Winds: SSE 10-13
Mazatlan : Afternoon Winds: S 13-17
TOMORROW : Friday, August 02, 2013
East Cape : Afternoon Winds: SE 6-8
Center : Afternoon Winds: S 9-11
Mazatlan : Afternoon Winds: SSW 13-17
.
….. 3 DAY FORECAST (OUTSIDE)…...
Ensenada
Thursday 8/1 Afternoon Winds: WNW 9-12
Seas: SSW 3 feet at 15 seconds
Friday 8/2 Afternoon Winds: WNW 9-12
Seas: SW 4 feet at 20 seconds
Saturday 8/3 Afternoon Winds: WNW 12-15
Seas: SW 4 feet at 18 seconds

Point San Quintin
Sunday 4/21 Afternoon Winds: NW 18-23
Seas: Seas: SSW 5 feet at 14 seconds
Friday 8/2 Afternoon Winds: WNW 15-20
Seas: SW 5 feet at 19 seconds
Saturday 8/3 Afternoon Winds: WNW 15-19
Seas: SW 5 feet at 17 seconds

Turtle Bay
Thursday 8/1 Afternoon Winds: WNW 15-19
Seas: WNW 3 feet at 6 seconds
Friday 8/2 Afternoon Winds: WNW 13-17
Seas: WNW 3 feet at 6 seconds
Saturday 8/3 Afternoon Winds: WNW 12-16
Seas: NW 3 feet at 8 seconds

Cedros Island
Thursday 8/1 Afternoon Winds: ESE 12-15
Seas: SE 1 feet at 2 seconds
Friday 8/2 Afternoon Winds: SE 9-12
Seas: ESE 1 feet at 4 seconds
Saturday 8/3 Afternoon Winds: SE 9-11
Seas: SE 1 feet at 4 seconds

ABREOJOS
Thursday 8/1 Afternoon Winds: WNW 17-22
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 14 seconds
Friday 8/2 Afternoon Winds: WNW 16-21
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 19 seconds
Saturday 8/3 Afternoon Winds: WNW 15-20
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 17 seconds

Mag Bay
Thursday 8/1 Afternoon Winds: WNW 14-18
Seas: SSW 5 feet at 14 seconds
Friday 8/2 Afternoon Winds: WNW 11-14
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 19 seconds
Saturday 8/3 Afternoon Winds: WNW 14-18
Seas: SSW 4 feet at 17 seconds

*CABO FALSO (Pedregal)
Today's Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 0

Thursday 8/1 Morning Winds: WNW 4 to 5 knots
Afternoon Winds: W 11-14
Seas: Seas: SSW 4 feet at 14 seconds
Friday 8/2 Afternoon Winds: WNW 12-15
Seas: SW 4 feet at 19 seconds
Saturday 8/3 Afternoon Winds: WNW 13-17
Seas: SW 4 feet at 17 seconds


. SEA OF CORTEZ
* indicates WeatherUnderground Station


*Puerto Penasco Casa Weez:
Morning Winds: S 10 to 14 knots
Afternoon Winds: S 13-17
Sunrise Temp.: 88 °
Daily High Temperature: 92 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 10S
Sunrise Bar: 1010

*Bahia Kino Nuevo :
Morning Winds: S 6 to 8 knots
Afternoon Winds: SSE 11-14
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1014


*San Filepe:
Morning Winds: SE 5 to 7 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 11-14
Sunrise Temp.: 89 °
Daily High Temperature: 99 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1010

*Gonzoga Bay Pappa Fernandez Landing. :
Morning Winds: SW 7 to 10 knots
Afternoon Winds: S 10-13
Sunrise Temp.: 91 °
Daily High Temperature: 100 °
Yesterday's Rainfall:
#VALUE!

*Bay of LA. :
Morning Winds: SSW 6 to 9 knots
Afternoon Winds: SSE 10-13
Sunrise Temp.: 79 °
Daily High Temperature: 92 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1008

San Franciscito Bay :
Morning Winds: SSW 4 to 6 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 12-15

Santa Rosalia :
Morning Winds: ESE 8 to 11 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 12-15
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
#VALUE!

*Mulegé :
Morning Winds: ESE 9 to 13 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 13-17
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 0

*San Carlos
Morning Winds: SSE 9 to 12 knots
Afternoon Winds: SSE 7-9
Sunrise Temp.: 83 °
Daily High Temperature: 97 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1014

Pt Concepcion :
Morning Winds: ESE 8 to 11 knots
Afternoon Winds: E 12-15

Punta Chivato :
Morning Winds: E 7 to 10 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 12-16

*El Burro Cove in Concepcion Bay
Morning Winds Winds: ESE 9 to 13 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 13-17
Sunrise Temp.: 86 °
Daily High Temperature: 98 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 0
Sunrise Sea Temperature: 0

Puerto Escondido Juncalitoville
Morning Winds: SE 8 to 10 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 14-18
Sunrise Temp.: 80 °
Daily High Temperature: 94 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1016

San Lorenzo Channel :
Morning Winds: S 5 to 6 knots
Afternoon Winds: S 7-9

La Paz:
Morning Winds: SSE 5 to 7 knots
Afternoon Winds: SE 8-10
Sunrise Temp.: 77 °
Daily High Temperature: 95 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1012

*La Ventana Baja Joe's :
Morning Winds: SE 6 to 8 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 8-10
Sunrise Temp.: N/A
Daily High Temperature: N/A
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 0


*Los Barriles :
Morning Winds: ESE 7 to 10 knots
Afternoon Winds: ESE 9-12
Sunrise Temp.: 84 °
Daily High Temperature: 90 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1010

Cabo Pulmo :
Morning Winds: ESE 6 to 8 knots
Afternoon Winds: SE 9-11
Seas: SSW 2 feet at 14 seconds

*Cabo San Lucas :
Morning Winds: SSE 2 to 3 knots
Afternoon Winds: WSW 11-14
Sunrise Temp.: 80 °
Daily High Temperature: 92 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1012

MEXICAN RIVIERA
*Mazatlan,
Morning Winds: SE 7 to 10 knots
Afternoon Winds: S 13-17
Sunrise Temp.: 81 °
Daily High Temperature: 88 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1014

*Puerta Vallarta:
Morning Winds: ENE 1 to 2 knots
Afternoon Winds: WNW 7-9
Sunrise Temp.: 76 °
Daily High Temperature: 92 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1016

Manzanillo :
Morning Winds: N 3 to 4 knots
Afternoon Winds: SW 8-10
Sunrise Temp.: n/a °
Daily High Temperature: °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 0
Ixtapa Zihuatanejo :
Morning Winds: W 8 to 11 knots
Afternoon Winds: WSW 9-12
Sunrise Temp.: 79 °
Daily High Temperature: 89 °
Yesterday's Rainfall: 0 in.
Sunrise Bar: 1012
Cabo Corrienties :
Morning Winds: N 2 to 3 knots
Afternoon Winds: W 8-10
Seas: SW 4 feet at 19 seconds


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About Geary

I broadcast a daily Sea of Cortez weather forecast on 3.968mh. My window to the world is a satellite Antenna hung on a palm tree next to my palapa.

Geary's Recent Photos

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Personal Weather Stations

El Burro Cove
Bahia Concepcion, BAJA SUR
Elevation: 0 ft
Temperature: 67.6 °F
Dew Point: 54.1 °F
Humidity: 62%
Wind: 2.0 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 14.0 mph
Updated: 3:14 PM MST on December 26, 2014

About Personal Weather Stations