Super-Super-Typhoon Megi Bears Down on Philippines

By: FlyingScotsman, 11:31 PM GMT on October 17, 2010

Analyzing Megi’s IntensityJust how strong was/is Super-typhoon Megi? The official intensity in the advisories at 12 and 18 GMT on the 17th was 155 kts. sustained, or 180 mph. However, the earlier of these two did not take into account recon data from around 12 GMT, and the discussion accompanying the later advisory noted that based on satellite imagery, Megi had probably peaked in intensity before the 18 GMT advisory--peak intensity was estimated at 160-165 kts....

Monster Igor Keeps Trundling Across the Atlantic

By: FlyingScotsman, 12:00 AM GMT on September 14, 2010

There are three systems to watch right now in the tropical Atlantic, the kind of activity you might expect in the middle of September. Closest to home, in the Caribbean, is Invest 92L, which continues its maddening oscillation between bursts of convection late in the day, making it look like a new cyclone is certainly forming, and complete convective collapses late in the day. It has been moving across ideal conditions for development ever since it entered the Car...

Updated: 12:02 AM GMT on September 14, 2010

Earl's Bark is Worse than His Bite

By: FlyingScotsman, 8:40 PM GMT on September 04, 2010

After baring his teeth, roaring ferociously, and charging right at the eastern US, Earl decided he was a bit of a coward after all, and turned tail and ran for the Canadian maritimes. For most of his life, Earl kept staying on the left side of the NHC forecasts, coming closer and closer to the US coast and raising fears that he would keep leaning left. But just at the critical moment, he ended up turning much more sharply than forecast and spent the last couple da...

Looking good for NC, not so good for NE

By: FlyingScotsman, 12:41 PM GMT on September 02, 2010

Intensity UpdateWell, a lot has happened in a few hours. Earl, having peaked in intensity, looked like he was about to lose his eyewall entirely, as a powerful slot of dry air intruded into the west side of the storm. However, Earl has been surprisingly hardy throughout his time as a major hurricane, weathering a long eyewall replacement cycle with minimal loss of intensity, and yesterday overcoming some stiff southwesterly shear to start intensifying again. This...

Earl Races Closer and Gets Stronger

By: FlyingScotsman, 8:59 AM GMT on September 02, 2010

IntensityAs suggested by satellite last night, Earl has strengthened overnight. A recent recon pass showed that the central pressure was down to 929 mb, and showed 161 mph flight-level winds in the NE quadrant, which translates into surface winds of around 145 mph. This surface reading is supported by a dropsonde that in the northern eyewall (not quite the most powerful part) reported 136 mph surface winds, and by satellite intensity estimates that agree on an int...

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