A Modest Proposal

By: FLwolverine , 11:51 PM GMT on April 19, 2013

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I went to Dr Rood's blog to learn about climate change, not to play games. Since Thursday's night's troll-fest did not result in any bans - or even any cautionary posts from the mods - I figure that blog is a hopeless case.

But since I've learned so much from the members posting on that blog, I've been hesitant to leave altogether. On the other hand, a lot of the people who used to post haven't done so in awhile. I know people get busy, but some of the missing are quite passionate about climate change and the prospects for the future, so I wonder how much the chaos and acrimony on Dr R's blog has caused them to avoid that site.

My proposal, then, is to move the discussion to a quieter venue, one where you can post information or ask a question without being interrupted, sidetracked, or mocked. The venue is....... here.

Information could be presented here. Questions could be asked here. I might write a blog post, or I might ask someone to write a post - I would like to hear what Old Leatherneck has to say about the arctic; I would like to read Pintada's book reviews (if he has time to write them); I would like to know what other people have to say!

Skeptics will be welcome as long as they are indeed skeptics and not just deniers in sheep's clothing, but there's no place here for comments from those who have nothing substantive to contribute.

So what do you think? Let me know if you are interested. Please look at the comments below, and please feel free to comment.

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21. hydrus
11:35 AM GMT on June 18, 2013
trolls have been a problem for years. About4 years ago it was the worst I have ever seen. I hope this year is much improves as was mentioned in the blog, and you will participate.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22974
20. MurrayBBQ
2:14 AM GMT on April 23, 2013
Thanks Daisy that was well received and I get it now.

One thing though, Naga said that the winds on the surface of the water in the antarctic are creating more surface ice. Wouldn't that mean that the warm surface water is decreasing in temperature more because it's becoming ice on the surface first making it colder as it trends down into the depths?.

Also Naga, I guess this also is something you can explain more. How does the added surface ice on the water directly relate to a global warming trend.
Member Since: April 12, 2013 Posts: 1 Comments: 26
19. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:02 AM GMT on April 23, 2013
FLwolverine has created a new entry.
18. BaltimoreBrian
1:59 AM GMT on April 23, 2013
Time for a bump up.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 9019
17. Daisyworld
5:28 AM GMT on April 21, 2013
Quoting FLwolverine:
Thank you, everyone, and esp Daisyworld for the heat transfer explanation. There is so much I don't know yet either. My next two questions are: (1). How much heat can the ocean hold? Which is a way of saying, how long can it keep surface temperatures within a livable range to give us time to do something about it?

(2). What happens when the ocean reaches its capacity?

OK three questions: (3). What are the dangers of the ocean warming? I can think of: methane release from the methane caltrates; temperatures too high for deep ocean life to tolerate (altho I don't know how that affects the food chain, if any); rising sea levels because of thermal expansion.

Sorry if my questions are a little fuzzy. As I say, I'm encountering most of this information for the first time.

TIA


These are tough questions. They're also a very large and complex ones. This page may help: NOAA NODC Global Ocean Heat and Salt Content.

What constitutes a "livable range" may be some point of subjectivity. If you mean livable in the way as life as usual, we're probably already past that point, as the people of Kiribati would attest. However, if you believe civilization is more robust, than what constitutes "livable" will likely rely on how grave the impacts will be. The two largest and more pronounced would be rising sea level and a more energized atmosphere from an increased evaporation rate:



As mentioned in the video, the heat capacity of the ocean is tremendous. It can hold an enormous amount of heat. But even in the face of that, we're already seeing the effects of accumulating heat from global warming with arctic sea ice loss at it's largest in recorded history.

Water, by it's nature, will remain water until it accumulates enough heat to turn into steam. I don't think we're likely to see the oceans boil away any time soon, so "reaching capacity" is not a scenario that's really discussed. Though, the dangers as mentioned above, as well as the ones you point out, are the most prominent ones that are being studied, and should be the greatest cause for concern for everyone.

Out for now. I'll log on again later in the week.
Member Since: January 11, 2012 Posts: 6 Comments: 888
16. FLwolverine
3:05 AM GMT on April 21, 2013
Thank you, everyone, and esp Daisyworld for the heat transfer explanation. There is so much I don't know yet either. My next two questions are: (1). How much heat can the ocean hold? Which is a way of saying, how long can it keep surface temperatures within a livable range to give us time to do something about it?

(2). What happens when the ocean reaches its capacity?

OK three questions: (3). What are the dangers of the ocean warming? I can think of: methane release from the methane caltrates; temperatures too high for deep ocean life to tolerate (altho I don't know how that affects the food chain, if any); rising sea levels because of thermal expansion.

Sorry if my questions are a little fuzzy. As I say, I'm encountering most of this information for the first time.

TIA
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2488
15. Daisyworld
2:37 AM GMT on April 21, 2013
Quoting MurrayBBQ:
[...]

But doesn't heat rise? Why would it go down to the deep depths of the ocean if heat rises? And IF the heat is transferred down to the deepest depths of the ocean where there is no sunlight, wouldn't the heat be cooled?

I think it might be something else rather than what Dr. Jeff Master's theorizes.


Heat does not always "rise" as much as it does transfer from one system to another. The reason we think of warm air rising is because warm air happens to be less dense than cold air, and will therefore always move upward in the atmosphere until it cools off, where it will descend again. It will also move sideways due to wind currents and weather fronts.

The same happens in the ocean. Warm water will rise, and cold water will descend. It can also move sideways due to ocean currents (like LaNina), which can even be strong enough to override the tendency warm water to rise and cold to descend. Winds can actually control the horizontal direction of surface ocean currents, creating upwelling zones that brings cold water and nutrients up from the deep ocean. That horizontal movement continues to push that new surface ocean water around, warming it up, and eventually pushing it towards the cooler arctic and antarctic areas of the planet. There, the water cools, becomes more dense, sinks, and becomes deeper ocean water again, which moves back towards the equatorial regions of the planet along the seafloor. This "conveyor belt" is called the global Thermohaline Circulation, or the THC.

When Dr. Masters talks about heat from global warming being transferred to the deep oceans due to LaNina, it's not that the warm water moves downward and is replaced with cold water above. Quite the opposite, actually. What he means is that cold water from the deep ocean is being pulled up to the surface in greater amounts than normal through more pronounced upwelling (west coast of South America). That water becomes surface water, is warmed up, and that warmer surface water makes it to the poles where it doesn't cool down as much as it used to. When that water sinks and becomes deep ocean water, the deep ocean itself is not as cool as it used to be. Therefore, over time, the deep ocean becomes warmer.
Member Since: January 11, 2012 Posts: 6 Comments: 888
14. WeHaveHadIT
1:28 AM GMT on April 21, 2013




Global Warming Could Lead to Vast Chocolate Shortage

alternet.org

One of climate change's potential victims is chocolate. Will the prospect of losing their favorite dessert finally get people to wake up?

In a world that takes for granted the availability of delicious and affordable chocolate, it's easy to forget that the popular product actually comes from trees -- not magical elves or free-flowing cocoa rivers, sadly. But, some experts are predicting that in a matter of decades a drop in production due to changing weather and agriculture incentives may make chocolate 'as expensive as gold'. "In 20 years chocolate will be like caviar. It will become so rare and so expensive that the average Joe just won't be able to afford it," says one researcher. And if I know Joe as well as I think I do, this won't go over well.


Member Since: March 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 124
13. MurrayBBQ
1:22 AM GMT on April 21, 2013
Quoting Naga5000:


While the antarctic sea ice is increasing, the glacial or land ice is not. Changing wind patterns have been responsible for the increases seen in sea ice, this is directly in line with what we would expect to see from a warming world.



Thanks, Nagga!



Quoting JohnLonergan:


RealClimate has a page on introductory climate science, the discussions arranged from very basic to advanced. Start at basic and work up.


John, I'll try my best to search through all the content, but I find my learning and retaining of information comes best from interacting with people.
Member Since: April 12, 2013 Posts: 1 Comments: 26
12. Daisyworld
1:15 AM GMT on April 21, 2013
Another climate blog is always welcome, FL. I'll stop by when I can.
Member Since: January 11, 2012 Posts: 6 Comments: 888
11. MurrayBBQ
1:12 AM GMT on April 21, 2013
Thanks for the link.

The preponderance of La NiƱa events in recent years has caused a large amount of heat from global warming to be transferred to the deep oceans

But doesn't heat rise? Why would it go down to the deep depths of the ocean if heat rises? And IF the heat is transferred down to the deepest depths of the ocean where there is no sunlight, wouldn't the heat be cooled?

I think it might be something else rather than what Dr. Jeff Master's theorizes.
Member Since: April 12, 2013 Posts: 1 Comments: 26
10. Naga5000
1:11 AM GMT on April 21, 2013
Quoting MurrayBBQ:
Took my first look at the sites articles and climate change charts as you recommended.

Read the article on why the warming trends aren't what the scientists thought they would be even though there are more carbons emissions.

They had their theories, but why do you think the warming trends aren't accurate to what they thought they would be?

I'm not the most knowledgable in climate science (I'm a rookie I guess). But I think maybe it could be something simple.

I looked at the Arctic Ice chart that shows it melting away. Is it possible that the Antarctic Ice is gaining because of the Arctic melting?

I'll check out more, there is so much!


While the antarctic sea ice is increasing, the glacial or land ice is not. Changing wind patterns have been responsible for the increases seen in sea ice, this is directly in line with what we would expect to see from a warming world.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 4105
9. JohnLonergan
1:08 AM GMT on April 21, 2013
Quoting MurrayBBQ:
Took my first look at the sites articles and climate change charts as you recommended.

Read the article on why the warming trends aren't what the scientists thought they would be even though there are more carbons emissions.

They had their theories, but why do you think the warming trends aren't accurate to what they thought they would be?

I'm not the most knowledgable in climate science (I'm a rookie I guess). But I think maybe it could be something simple.

I looked at the Arctic Ice chart that shows it melting away. Is it possible that the Antarctic Ice is gaining because of the Arctic melting?

I'll check out more, there is so much!


RealClimate has a page on introductory climate science, the discussions arranged from very basic to advanced. Start at basic and work up.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 3750
8. FLwolverine
12:54 AM GMT on April 21, 2013
Murray, I am not a scientist and I'm still new to this stuff too, so I look to knowledgeable people I can trust. Dr Masters wrote a post on March 27, 2013, about studies showing the "missing heat" is going into the deep oceans. I've read other articles about this too, and to me it makes sense. Check out Dr M's blog and see what you think. Link

There are many articles explaining why the Arctic and Antarctic are two very different systems. Look at the Arctic Sea Ice blog - there's a link on BaltimoreBrian's blog; click on his name above to get there - and I will also try to find a good reference. I should have that resource stored up anyway.

Glad you are interested. There is a lot of information to absorb.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2488
7. BaltimoreBrian
12:29 AM GMT on April 21, 2013
A good idea :)
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 9019
6. MurrayBBQ
12:23 AM GMT on April 21, 2013
Took my first look at the sites articles and climate change charts as you recommended.

Read the article on why the warming trends aren't what the scientists thought they would be even though there are more carbons emissions.

They had their theories, but why do you think the warming trends aren't accurate to what they thought they would be?

I'm not the most knowledgable in climate science (I'm a rookie I guess). But I think maybe it could be something simple.

I looked at the Arctic Ice chart that shows it melting away. Is it possible that the Antarctic Ice is gaining because of the Arctic melting?

I'll check out more, there is so much!
Member Since: April 12, 2013 Posts: 1 Comments: 26
5. FLwolverine
4:39 PM GMT on April 20, 2013
Quoting MurrayBBQ:
Well, I'm kinda new so this blog should be pretty informative for me. It sure is getting hot out lately here in Belle Glades, but if you sit on top of your roof you can still catch a nice breeze that makes it bare able. Below the tree line you're salting the earth with every step.

Sorry to banter, I guess I should contribute a question.

Is the Climate changing for the better?
Hi, Murray. In my opinion, but more importantly in the opinion of 97% or 98% of climate scientists, the answer to your question is "no". If you seriously want an answer to your question, you can check out the "climate change" information provided by WU - look for the tab in the upper right corner of the WU pages. Good luck.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2488
4. MurrayBBQ
3:14 PM GMT on April 20, 2013
Well, I'm kinda new so this blog should be pretty informative for me. It sure is getting hot out lately here in Belle Glades, but if you sit on top of your roof you can still catch a nice breeze that makes it bare able. Below the tree line you're salting the earth with every step.

Sorry to banter, I guess I should contribute a question.

Is the Climate changing for the better?
Member Since: April 12, 2013 Posts: 1 Comments: 26
2. FLwolverine
11:53 PM GMT on April 19, 2013
Please "plus" this comment if you think this is a good idea and would like to participate. You may of course also comment, but the plusses here will help me keep track of whether there's any interest. Thanks.
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2488
1. FLwolverine
11:52 PM GMT on April 19, 2013
Please "plus" this comment if you have read the blog. This will help me keep track of who has seen it, in case there is someone lurking (like Rookie) who might be interested but who might miss it. Thanks
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2488

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UMich grad; retired attorney; lives in Michigan, spends time in Florida.

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