Hello. I'm just a person who loves weather. I live in York County, PA and have 2 brothers... neither of which like weather ha :)
By: Doppler22, 5:11 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
Invest 96L is located off the coast of Africa. It is being given a 40% chance of developing in the next 2 days and the same percentage for their 5 day outlook. The NHC mentions that it is heading in the direction of a hostile environment. I personally don't see 96L developing in the short term but some models take 96L northwards and then loops it back south. We'll see what happens if that is the case.
Models for 96L
97L has just been called west of the Leeward Islands. It's convection has increased as of late and it looks decent. At 8AM this morning the NHC gave it 0% for 2 days, 10% for 5 days. I'd put the odds higher as I am sure the NHC will be doing within the hour. I believe that this storm has a chance to become Gabrielle down the road.
Loop of 97L
There is also a Tropical Depression in the Eastern Pacific that is expected to become a weak Tropical Storm in the future but die before affecting anyone.
Updated: 5:13 PM GMT on August 31, 2013
By: Doppler22, 4:31 PM GMT on August 20, 2013
What "caused" my passion of weather?
Well, I attribute my passion of weather to three things.
I was told a story when I was young about how when my mother was pregnant with my older brother my area was hit by a tornado. She said she was driving along a road and when she got over a hill she could see it coming towards her. She quickly pulled over and took cover inside a Church. She was fine and it was most likely just an EF-0 tornado but it still scared her. That story fascinated me and I looked at every thunderstorm different after I heard that.
Story of Hurricane Agnes
Hurricane Agnes was the first named storm of the 1972 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Once it had made landfall it was, at the time, the costliest hurricane to hit the US in history. It was only a Category one but it had lots of moisture and rain in it. My area received about a foot of rain from Agnes. My parents told me lots of stories about the storm. They said that my grandmothers house which is close to a stream was completely underwater and that a town close to me was devastated by flood waters. That fascinated me because I know that town well, and the stream that runs through it is sooo small, I couldn't imagine it getting that high. They also took me to that town and showed me some of the older buildings and you can see the waterline close to the roofs of the buildings.
Agnes over the NE
Rainfall from Agnes
My own Hurricane Experience
In 2003, a pesky hurricane decided to make a visit. Its name was Isabel. Isabel was the strongest storm in the 2003 Atlantic Hurricane Season peaking at 165mph (Cat 5). It made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane in North Carolina and died over Western PA and Ohio. I remember this storm vividly. Schools were shut down and many offices closed. There was nothing in any of the local grocery stores. When it hit, my house lost power fairly quickly and I sat by the window for what seemed like forever watching Isabel roar overhead. Im pretty sure that my house only received Tropical Storm force winds but it still seemed bad. Tree branches were flying everywhere, it was pouring like i've never seen it pour before, and I was hiding in the middle of my house by the window because there were 3 massive trees in my yard which my parents were scared would blow over. When the storm was done, I had a lot of yard cleaning to do. But I was in awe. I was in awe of Isabel, in awe of the power of Mother Nature. So, since Isabel hit, i've had a strong passion for weather and I fully respect and love what Mother Nature does.
Isabel at her peak with her famous pinwheel eye
Isabel making landfall in North Carolina
Thats how I was inspired by weather. Although, I have always loved when a thunderstorm came around. So I guess I was just born to love weather :)
By: Doppler22, 8:09 PM GMT on August 14, 2013
As you probably know, invest 92L is located North of Honduras and East of Belize. Some models are insane with this storm taking it to the S. Texas border as a strong hurricane. Other models keep it fairly weak and towards the Northern Gulf Coast. I believe the later of the two will happen. I believe that while a storm most likely will form, it should stay fairly weak and move to the Northern Gulf Coast. However, do not discount this storm. Because I also believe that this storm poses a major flood threat. The soil in most of the south remain saturated due to above average rainfall and this could trigger severe flooding. Dr. Masters himself mentions that the above average rainfall along the East coast makes flooding a huge threat from any tropical cyclone. After it hits the gulf states, I think the storm will move Northward into the Mid-Atlantic and could possibly bring heavy rain to those states as well which don't need it. Overall, 92L is a big threat to watch, no matter the intensity.
As for Invest 93L, I also think it will form into a storm (whichever invest gets to Erin first, we'll see). I see 93L becoming a moderate tropical storm however I think FOR NOW that it may end up like Dorian in the end.
My outlook name wise, 93L becomes Erin and 92L will become Fernand.
Updated: 8:11 PM GMT on August 14, 2013