Unprecedented back to back Winter storms hit Gulf South!

By: DocNDswamp , 9:19 AM GMT on January 27, 2014

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Latest W Atlantic Basin AVN / IR Satellite Image...

W Atlantic Basin AVN Satellite Image

Thu Jan 30 2014 update...
Coldest lows since Feb 1996 for several locations across Lousiana


C.C.C.C.Cold this morning, but warm up well ongoing as into 50's, gorgeous day... Saw an astonishing photo on WVUE Fox 8 this morn submitted by worker on oil rig some 30-40 miles below Terrebonne in the Gulf with sleet and snow covering the deck! From yesterday morn as last band precip was along coast / offshore... Sure, it wasn't the impressive snowfall wanted to see here, but coverage of what we did get - sleet, slurry and slain - reached far and wide.

Noted temps in mid-low 30's reported over N Gulf platforms past couple days... and this morn Amerada Pass station AMRL1, located to SSW of Morgan City in Atchafalaya Bay was freezing for 12 hrs overnight, dipped to a 26.8F low.

Rivaling or surpassing the cold of Jan 7th, low temps at several stations this morning were coldest since Feb 1996. Had a minimum of 15 hr duration freeze here, and a few locations did drop into the teens...

Lows across Houma-Thibodaux Region Jan 30 2014 ---

Thibodaux 4SE 18.0 (NWS Ag Observer)
Schriever PWS 19.6
Vacherie PWS 19.6
B Cane PWS: 19.8
Thibodaux PWS 20.3
USDA PWS : 20.6
B Blue PWS: 20.8 (15 on older thermo, suspect)
Maple Park PWS 21.4
Green Acres, Bourg PWS 21.6 (closest to, south of KHUM)
Houma KHUM 23.0
Raceland PWS 24.4
Cocodrie PWS 27.1

Dunno why KHUM didn't drop lower as station reached 25 by 10 PM last night and 23.7 before midnight... and previously on Jan 7th had hit 21... That coldest reading topping the local list - 18F reported by long-time, reliable NWS Ag Observer at Thibodaux was notable, also had a 19F on Jan 7th... So far, has had 3 days with a 32F low and 14 days freezing w below 32F readings for Jan 2014.

Marked 2nd time this month my own thermo fell into up teens... Lot of teens across state such as 17F Baton Rouge and Slidell, 19F at both Lake Charles and Lafayette. Coldest state temp I found was 11F at Tallulah in NE LA...

KLCH and KLIX NWS offices offerings of late include -
from KLCH, comprehensive list of station's lows Jan 30th... some of these may be posted tomorrow under Record Event Reports. And from KLIX posted yesterday, review and list sleet / snow accumulations.


*****


Mon Jan 27 2014
Winter Storm Watch in effect as Gulf Coast Snow / Ice Storm #2 looms

Snow would be nice... not so the ice!

As we round out what has been deemed likely one of the coldest Januarys on record for SE LA by New Orleans NWS Office KLIX, Winter Storm Watches are flying, covering an enormous swath extending E / NE from interior S Cen / SE TX across all of Southern LA, MS, AL, NW FL, Cen GA all the way to coastal Carolinas, and likely to be changed to Winter Storm Warnings by Tuesday as conditions steadily deteriorate.

SE LA - and most of the immediate Gulf Coast region to Carolinas - likely to see historic ice / snow storm causing major havoc Tuesday / Wednesday. Arctic front offering sharply colder air arrives Monday and Tuesday into the Deep South as broad upper trof / jet stream energy associated with Hudson Bay lobe of the polar vortex digs SWD over majority CONUS once again, aided by a series of mid-up disturbances / diminishing vort max over Mexico swinging around the base of the trof deliver a second round of rain, freezing rain, sleet and substantial snowfall accumulations. All this occurring within scant 4 days after previous Winter Storm impacted eastern Texas, most of Louisiana into MS / AL late last week on Thu Jan 23 / Fri Jan 24th, dropping 1-4" snow - the heaviest near the lakes region of E TX across W Cen LA - along with sleet and freezing rain encompassing the region that shut down travel, expanding to include many SE LA roadways as bridges / overpasses froze and glazed over by Friday night before precip terminated... Prior to that, it was mostly a cold rain / sleet mix event for lot of southern half SE LA, moderated by warm nose aloft and weakening CAA that lead to sharp demarcation with sfc temps (low-mid 30's) from areas short distance to N and W (mid-up 20's). The snowfall set several daily records (3" Alex) with the cold notable as well, breaking coldest maximum records such as 31F Lake Charles, and 30F at both Lafayette and Alexandria, the latter clipping the previous 32F set in 1915.

This 2nd storm appears certain to be even more significant, perhaps a longer duration event with potential for heavier precipitation amts leading to treacherous conditions areawide beginning overnight Monday / Tuesday, increasing in coverage, intensity of frozen precip Tuesday into Wednesday with temps at or below freezing for most 3 day period... Particularly concerning our local area of SE LA - Houma to NOLA metros / coastal parishes - where some model output is indicating potential for 1"-1.25" precip falling over 12-24 hr period, likely the bulk as rain to freezing rain causing severe icing problems, transitioning to sleet and snow Tue night before ending Wed morning. Model soundings / critical thickness projections per usual indicate our proximity to moderating Gulf influence all but guarantees an above-freezing warm layer around 900-800 mb causing precip melt, refreezing on contact thus nasty freezing rain / icing... how long till warm layer erodes, how much of what, etc, to be seen. Taking a foolish guess at this early stage, seems a chance the Houma metro region could get around .30-.50" of cold rain, about 1/4" or more of icy glaze / sleet and 1-2" of snow... lol, reality will dictate allocations. Hey, enough of cold rain, may as well dream for a quicker warm layer erosion / transition and get a whopping 4-8" snowfall where typically least expected! And why not? Oh well... I'm sure Houma's all-time record 16" snowfall Feb 1895 will stay intact. ;)

But whatever our record for a severe ice storm is may well be challenged!
Please stay safe all... gonna get really ugly with black ice before (or if) it's overlaid by white.

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38. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
9:43 PM GMT on February 03, 2014
DocNDswamp has created a new entry.
37. DocNDswamp
4:14 AM GMT on January 31, 2014
Evening Bug,
You should feel the warm up soon, lot more by Saturday... Ice will soon be a memory. Temp has dropped off tonight a bit into mid-up 30's, but hardly noticeable after last few, lol. Honestly, I was outside a while last night and it was so very dry, I was in disbelief it was 24F... no wind helped. But yeah, creeps in on ya, frostbite wx!

Next issue we'll deal with here is very dense sea fog esp Sat morning - coastal Gulf water temps are in the 40's, warm return flow air coming across, perfect recipe for da fog... Send ya some if ya like?

Oh - just FWIW, uncovered my veggies, cauliflowers fine, one tomato still looks okay, but the one at the edge despite best efforts, well... not so good. Hope can still get / eat the 2 tomatoes on it.
Sumthin' bout temps into teens and 36 out of 42 hrs below freezing...! (EDIT add), funny thing same plant survived Jan 6-8, 39 of 55 hrs freezing, low 18.5F on worst morn, only lost couple leaves, perked back intact... totally drooped now. Oh well...

Hope ya have a fine Friday!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4785
36. palmettobug53
9:51 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
C. C. C. Cold right back at ya, Doc.

We were supposed to start thawing today. So much for that.

Another night of cold temps. I've seen everything from 28/29 up to 31/32.

I hope tomorrow's forecast for sunny and lower 50's comes true.

I had a therapy appt at 11:00 this morning, so walked over to the main campus. There was ice still all over the sidewalks, steps, street. Freezing cold wind.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 232 Comments: 24927
35. DocNDswamp
8:38 PM GMT on January 30, 2014
Checking in...

C.C.C.C.Cold this morning, but warm up well ongoing as into 50's, gorgeous day... Saw an astonishing photo on WVUE Fox 8 this morn submitted by worker on oil rig some 30-40 miles below Terrebonne in the Gulf with sleet and snow covering the deck! From yesterday morn as last band precip was along coast / offshore... Sure, it wasn't the impressive snowfall wanted to see here, but coverage of what we did get - sleet, slurry and slain - reached far and wide.

Noted temps in mid-low 30's reported over N Gulf platforms past couple days... and this morn Amerada Pass station AMRL1, located to SSW of Morgan City in Atchafalaya Bay was freezing for 12 hrs overnight, dipped to a 26.8F low.

Rivaling or surpassing the cold of Jan 7th, low temps at several stations this morning were coldest since Feb 1996. Had a minimum of 15 hr duration freeze here, and a few locations did drop into the teens...

Lows across Houma-Thibodaux Region Jan 30 2014 ---

Thibodaux 4SE 18.0 (NWS Ag Observer)
Schriever PWS 19.6
Vacherie PWS 19.6
B Cane PWS: 19.8
Thibodaux PWS 20.3
USDA PWS : 20.6
B Blue PWS: 20.8 (15 on older thermo, suspect)
Maple Park PWS 21.4
Green Acres, Bourg PWS 21.6 (closest to, south of KHUM)
Houma KHUM 23.0
Raceland PWS 24.4
Cocodrie PWS 27.1

Dunno why KHUM didn't drop lower as station reached 25 by 10 PM last night and 23.7 before midnight... and previously on Jan 7th had hit 21... That coldest reading topping the local list - 18F reported by long-time, reliable NWS Ag Observer at Thibodaux was notable, also had a 19F on Jan 7th... So far, has had 3 days with a 32F low and 14 days freezing w below 32F readings for Jan 2014.

Marked 2nd time this month my own thermo fell into up teens... Lot of teens across state such as 17F Baton Rouge and Slidell, 19F at both Lake Charles and Lafayette. Coldest state temp I found was 11F at Tallulah in NE LA...

KLCH and KLIX NWS offices offerings of late include -
from KLCH, comprehensive list of station's lows Jan 30th... some of these may be posted tomorrow under Record Event Reports. And from KLIX posted yesterday, review and list sleet / snow accumulations.

Work calls...
BBL when can.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4785
34. DocNDswamp
10:23 PM GMT on January 29, 2014
Aftn Bug,
Hmmmm, sounds like sumthin' 9-10 days away...
Jis look on the bright side - lot of nice warm weather we'll have before we get there!

Actually it's the potential hvy rain issue I'm worried about into next week - I need more dry conditions!!!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4785
33. palmettobug53
10:15 PM GMT on January 29, 2014
Don't knock the cozy confines, Doc. I do some of my best weather observations from this side of the window, steaming cuppa in my hand!

What's this I'm hearing about another go round come Feb 8th?

My hand isn't hovering over that red Panic button yet but, jeeze Louise. I've had more than enough of this nonsense.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 232 Comments: 24927
32. DocNDswamp
9:59 PM GMT on January 29, 2014
Okay, a little late offering report on da big event - hey, I spend time outside out in the weather, actually observing it, not blogging about it from cozy confines! Got radar screen shots, model output, etc haven't had time to upload... for that matter, haven't completed gathering NWS tallies on the event yet.

Anyway, for SE LA this event turned out a little less snow (lot less for some of us!), gladly much lesser freezing rain / ice than feared... but a ton of sleet region-wide dominating the NWS reports! As the revised Monday guidance indicated, moisture / actual precip amts and duration were lower and hvy icing never approached forecasted concerns over the Bayou Country. But did elsewhere, some areas of SE LA up to .20" icy glaze coating. Nobody missed getting some frz precip, all stations from NW LA to SE LA coast reported some form...

As I suspected, onset of freezing temp was delayed here to late aftn - dipped to 31.5 by 4 PM. Prior, had a mere .06" rain which became short-lived frz rain before went into a 4 hr hiatus of no precip as scat bands dried up and main narrow sleet / snow band seemed stuck in place to my N... Actually a fortunate thing for highway concerns, as wet roads got chance dry out. And yes, I was on the road after 4:30 as frz rain ended, not before experienced that scraping sound and ice being slung off w windshield wipers. Hardly anyone was on roads by then, only handful stores open.

Before 8 PM, temps fell to 28 and stayed there thru this morning (27.9 low), finally rising above freezing after 10 AM for 18 hr duration... busted the low 20's forecast here and teens above never happened, off by 5 degrees warmer.

Was around 10 PM precip band shifted back SEWD and got a taste of everything - sleet w rain (Slain!) to sleet w flurries (Slurries!)... and more sleet! Most intense burst was near midnight as saw brief accumulation on cars / trucks to about 1/8" or so of sleet / snow mix... becoming very light, fine snow flurries for about an hour after.. LOL, looked cool using the bulleye and wasn't alone saw another neighbor out w kids doing same... ;)
Most precip ended little after 1 AM here, tho some renewed precip was along the coast early this morn as band shifted further south...

Sadly, nothing remained showing by this morning, no pretty white to gawk at or call a "measurable snow". Although KLIX report did call it a trace. Awaited frz precip to melt in da gauge today as dumped the rain amts earlier yesterday to get idea of each, so .06" rain plus the minor 1/8" plus sleet-snow coating was another .02" liquid equivalent.. way less than seemed we'd get... and... my much desired snow storm remains elusive, thanks to that warm Pinocchio-nosed sounding profile.
;)

So far today, just cold... cloudy / overcast, home temps ranged 28.0-39.6... and another freeze tonight.

BBL...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4785
31. DocNDswamp
9:53 PM GMT on January 29, 2014
G'day all!

"I can now sneak in and out without leaving a tell-tale trail."

Ahh, but Miss Bug.... You forgot and left tracks in my minor sleet-snow accumulation... Saw it before it all melted (or sublimated) away this morning! ;)

You probably got a bit more ice than I did, glad wasn't worse for either of us... er, could have used a touch more snow than sleet, but so it goes. Good planning ahead by you... and as we both stated in Jeff's blog earlier 'bout the Atlanta mess.

Hiya Linda,
Darn da neaux sneaux, eh?
Yeah, the roads really didn't get to be too much a problem here, 'cept overpasses as expected... much of Hwy 90 / I49 was shut down midday. Only activity there was police / DOTD sanding trucks.

Hope your work day goes smooth...
..and you get the rain ya want - keep it there!
Saw forecast of hvy rain into next week, ain't as welcome or needed here. ;)

Hey Wabit,
Hang on, I'm getting to the report, lol.
Yeah, that system just might imply some severe connotations and very hvy rain with it too... and in between, well ya know there'll be hvy snow / ice.

Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4785
30. palmettobug53
7:25 PM GMT on January 29, 2014
Got what I think is a quarter inch of ice, if the roof of the bluebird house is an appropriate gauge of depth.

We didn't get any snow until a few flurries arrived around 7:30 or so this a.m. All precip had stopped by 10:30 or 11:00.

I've spotted a few weak rays of sunshine.

Despite the low temps, we've been seeing some thawing. The icicles on the eaves are getting smaller. The street has almost dried out, as has our front walk. Trees and shrubs are still covered, though.

I left work early yesterday, put in leave for today and will head back in the a.m, as usual. I know things will refreeze tonight but I don't have a long commute and will just go slow.

Gus has expressed the wish to go out several times today but as soon as he gets to the open door, he comes to a dead stop, looks and sniffs, then does an about face and heads back to his bed in the front bedroom for another snooze. Smart cat!
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 232 Comments: 24927
29. whitewabit (Mod)
6:46 PM GMT on January 29, 2014
Quoting 25. DocNDswamp:
In the FWIW dept - Aww ain't that cute, since 3:20 PM have observed tiny sleet and mini-flurries drifting down, temp to 32.7F. A few folks out looking at it, still nothing get too excited about... ;)

Glad to report, still haven't seen any frz rain accumulate in da neighborhood... heavier precip bands remain to W and N, yet to go...

BBL tonight...


well did you end up getting anything ?? watch out next week .. some models calling for another strong one .. something to keep an eye on ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31073
28. Thoughtsteader
6:40 PM GMT on January 29, 2014
Looks like the excitement's over here. The ice that was around my place is gone now. There was a good bit of left-over sleet and ice this morning, but only if you define a "good bit" pretty loosely.

At 34F, your roads ought to be clearing. We're at 36, but still cloudy. As soon as I get 45, or above 40 with sun, I'm ready to give it a go on the docks. It won't be as much fun as chatting with a "Doc", but nobody ever said we were going to get nothing but fun!

My biggest hope now is that the rain materializes over the weekend. We need it, for sure.


Member Since: January 16, 2014 Posts: 31 Comments: 464
27. palmettobug53
10:34 PM GMT on January 28, 2014
God, it smells so much better in here. No more coughing from the dust I stir up when I come inside!

I can now sneak in and out without leaving a tell-tale trail.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 232 Comments: 24927
26. palmettobug53
10:32 PM GMT on January 28, 2014
And the fun begins for us!

It was 49F when I got up at 5 this morning. There was a little misty rain but it had quit by the time I left for work. Stayed dry all day but the temps did a visible plunge on my desktop weather gadget.

Most of us left at noon.

Rain started about 4:30. Not sure exactly what the temp is; something between 32 and 33. It is cold as a witch's... (ahem)(er...) bosom out there.

Gus got it in his head he wanted out a little while ago. He took one step over the threshold, stopped, did an about face and headed for his bed in the front bedroom. Who says cats are dumb? lol
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 232 Comments: 24927
25. DocNDswamp
10:06 PM GMT on January 28, 2014
In the FWIW dept - Aww ain't that cute, since 3:20 PM have observed tiny sleet and mini-flurries drifting down, temp to 32.7F. A few folks out looking at it, still nothing get too excited about... ;)

Glad to report, still haven't seen any frz rain accumulate in da neighborhood... heavier precip bands remain to W and N, yet to go...

BBL tonight...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4785
24. DocNDswamp
7:29 PM GMT on January 28, 2014
Aftn, Beell,
Man, that's rare, you slept later than I... know ya enjoyed the rest!

Thanks for the report, was curious what you've had thus far... hope you get some falling flakes before ends, as do I...

Yep, sounds like tough lesson learned by drivers. Ain't enough sand for all the overpasses here much less Houston!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4785
23. DocNDswamp
7:21 PM GMT on January 28, 2014
Temp wavering at home to 33.4, back to 34.2F... did see some radar bright banding at times above / below to possibly account for these reports - thru 1:15 PM, yet to spot sleet at my Bayou Cane location above Houma...

1110 AM SLEET THIBODAUX 29.79N 90.82W
01/28/2014 U0.00 INCH LAFOURCHE LA EMERGENCY MNGR

SLEET BEGINNING TO FALL IN LAFOURCHE PARISH.

***

1125 AM SLEET HOUMA 29.58N 90.71W
01/28/2014 E0.00 INCH TERREBONNE LA PUBLIC

SLEET STARTING TO ACCUMULATE IN HOUMA. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.



Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4785
22. beell
7:16 PM GMT on January 28, 2014
Afternoon, Doc.
Slept til 10AM on this rare but welcome weather hold.

30°F here in northeast Harris county. A light mix of freezing drizzle and sleet. Local surface roads in good shape.

Last Friday's event seems to have schooled the local populace regarding elevated roadways. Slow down or stay home being the major lessons learned.

Houston Transtar's, "Ice on Roadway" reports ranged from around 40 to 60 reports last week at any given moment. Currently, there are just a handful. So using that as a rough guide, we seem to be in good shape.

Most of the more active radar returns about to clear Houston proper.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16117
21. DocNDswamp
6:58 PM GMT on January 28, 2014
Hiya Wabit,
All good so far local area - thermo at 33.6, coldest yet / slow falling and been all light rain - a mere .03" amt.. haven't spotted any sleet here yet, some nearby tho... But indeed, by later aftn / tonight roadways demand cautious attention. Should take some time for freeze-up ground / road bases after warmer temps last 2 days.

Yep, hope to see some sleet / snow later today, aware the warm up coming... drat, lol...

Hey stay warm - know it's heluva lot colder up there!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4785
20. whitewabit (Mod)
5:28 PM GMT on January 28, 2014
stay safe down there in that frozen precip .. don't drive if you don't have to!!

enjoy it .. it will be gone in a day or two ..
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 361 Comments: 31073
19. DocNDswamp
4:44 PM GMT on January 28, 2014
Woo hoo, Snow Day is here, lol!
...well not yet here of course w spotty light rain and 36F, but da excitement is somewhat building... Enjoyed an early tv report, the view from beautiful downtown Nachitoches along the Cane River was pretty scene covered in snow for 2nd time in 4 days...
;)

Anyway - a classic changeover event looks likely later this aftn / early evening here... C'mon Sneaux!

KLIX Winter Storm Warning graphic


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
751 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...
A LOOK AT THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWS A WARM LAYER FROM 1800 FEET TO 10K FEET PEAKING AT 9C. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM THE EARLY ONSET ON PRECIPITATION. WITH PW VALUES AT 0.81... THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. AREAS WHERE THE WARM NOSE IN THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE CONTINUES WILL EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. WITH TIME... THE PROFILE WILL BECOME BELOW FREEZING FROM THE NORTHERN PARISHES SOUTH...THUS A CONVERSION TO SNOW WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EVENT. NORTH WINDS OF 20KT INDICATES ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WINTER WEATHER EVENT IS UNFOLDING AT THIS TIME AS LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HAS DEVELOPED IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND IN POINTE COUPEE PARISH ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG VIRGA FIELD ABOVE WARM LAYER SLOWLY WET-BULBING THE SOUNDING PROFILE IN THE SHALLOW COLD POOL. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS OMEGA FIELD INTENSIFIES DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THIS MORNING. THE NAM HAS DONE THE BEST AT INITIALIZING THE PRECIPITATION EARLIER THAN OTHER MODELS BUT ESSENTIALLY ALL MODELS COME INTO AGREEMENT RATHER QUICKLY ON OVERALL DYNAMICS. NAM STILL APPEARS TO BE HEAVY-HANDED ON PRECIPITATION SO WENT CLOSER TO GFS/ECMWF ON QPF WHICH IS CLOSER TO CONTINUITY. TRIED TO CLOSELY GET GRIDS ALIGN WITH CURRENTLY HOURLY TRENDS...WHICH REQUIRED LOWERING THE DEW POINTS CONSIDERABLY FROM PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST...THUS SUGGESTING VERY STRONG POTENTIALS FOR DYNAMIC COOLING. HAVE CHANGED LITTLE FROM OVERALL THINKING ON IMPACTS THOUGH THERE WILL BE EVIDENT CHANGES FROM HOUR-TO-HOUR DEPICTION OF WEATHER ELEMENTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WHEN ACCUMULATIONS ARE TALLIED HOWEVER... THE AMOUNTS ALIGN CLOSELY WITH ADVERTISED WARNING VALUES ON BOTH SNOW AND ICE. THE ONLY OTHER NOTED CHANGE MAY BE EARLY ENDING IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOSS OF LIFT AND RAPID COLUMN DRYING AROUND AND AFTER 00Z WED. IF SUCH IS THE CASE... THIS WOULD ALLOW ANY LINGERING MOISTURE TO BECOME SNOW LADENED ON THE BACK FRINGES...INCLUDING AREAS SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN A SLOW FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO WET-BULB EFFECTS COUPLED WITH ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION. LONG DURATION HARD FREEZE STILL MAJOR CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S MOST LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE VERY LOW TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4785
18. Patrap
6:32 AM GMT on January 28, 2014
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
17. DocNDswamp
6:29 AM GMT on January 28, 2014
PS: Also keep in mind last comment represents my (pessimistic / downcasting) opinion, caution highly advised. We ARE OFFICIALLY under a Winter Storm Warning thru tomorrow, to be taken seriously!

This is KLIX NWS latest statement -

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1137 PM CST MON JAN 27 2014

.AVIATION...

...06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WILL IMPACT AVIATION OPERATIONS BEGINNING BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z TOMORROW. THESE IMPACTS WILL LINGER THROUGH AROUND 00Z AND 06Z IN THE EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FIRST OCCURRING AT KMCB AND KBTR. EXPECT TO SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW DEVELOP BY 15Z AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING RAIN WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED AT KHUM... KMSY... KNEW... KASD... AND KGPT AND WILL LAST MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT TO SEE SIGNIFICANT ICING ISSUES ON AIRCRAFT AND RUNWAYS AT THESE TERMINALS...WITH TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 0.50" POSSIBLE BY 00Z. A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND 00Z AT THESE TERMINALS AS THE MID-LEVEL AIRMASS COOLS AND PERSIST THROUGH 06Z. FARTHER TO NORTH...AT KHDC...KMCB...AND KGPT...A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AROUND 15Z...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY SWITCH OVER TO A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET AT KBTR AND KHDC BY 18-20Z. AT KMCB...THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...AND EXPECT SNOW TO OCCUR AT KMCB FOR SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THESE TERMINALS.

Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4785
16. DocNDswamp
6:02 AM GMT on January 28, 2014
Okay, took deeper gander both 18Z and latest 0Z GFS...

For Bayou Region of SE LA -
FWIW, good news on the outlook, precip / QPF may be of lesser coverage / intensity and most of what does fall could stay simply cold rain, far less frz rain / icing... A tough call as sfc temps may be a bit delayed reaching / staying at freezing locally - might hover 32-35F here similar to last time - until very late in day, into evening / overnight period... and precip departs EWD sooner than previous runs showed 24 hrs ago, for a shorter duration event. Hey, less freezing rain welcome if that pans out.

But...

Snow chances?
Not much change or encouragement at all in hopes seeing stubborn warm layer aloft in lower mid levels (upper lower levels?) at 850-700 mb erode to colder... till turns drier / precip about a goner... as presently being modeled. At best, might see a few flakes if look at just right time...

Bah hum bug... Keep in mind, quite different story just a few miles away from this influence.
We shall see.
G'nite!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4785
15. DocNDswamp
3:20 AM GMT on January 28, 2014
Hey Skye,
Good to see ya... Yes, I'm curious about 'em too, they're described as sweeter than say a snow crown, etc... and so true, cold wx just seems make 'em more flavorful. I'll let ya know, should be picking the 1st one in a few days.

And look, they already got the cheese added naturally, lol...
;)
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4785
14. Skyepony (Mod)
3:11 AM GMT on January 28, 2014
Good luck to your garden. Those orange cauliflower sound interesting. Let me know how those taste. Cold will probably make them even better.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 160 Comments: 37148
13. DocNDswamp
3:06 AM GMT on January 28, 2014
Evening,
Colder air slow to filter in, still in mid 50's after high reached 70-71F today... no hint of what's to come tomorrow!

About to go cover up da veggies - still have 2 quite hardy Phoenix tomato plants from last year that regenerated and so far survived all the freezes we had, now w 4 tomatoes on 'em, one of the plants still flowering, lol... others are chedder cauliflower - 1st time grown these odd orange-colored beauties - plump, very near ripe, can't afford lose 'em!

***

Howdy Pat,
Sounds as you've prepared as much as ya can... Coffee, check... Fresca, check... Beer and spirits, check...
I also noted milk and bread sold out fast this aftn around here.
Back atcha, warm / dry and safe be da theme - if was up to me, I'd declare emergency mandatory max roadway speed limit of 25 mph for tomorrow aftn... lol, probably 15-20 mph too fast.

Heya Beell, thanks...
18Z GFS says I want to be outside viewing about this time tomorrow! No surprise looks to be a 4th quarter slim window of opportunity down dis bayou to get white...

Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4785
12. beell
6:49 PM GMT on January 27, 2014
Where are my manners? A house-warming present. Later.

Current selected RAP analysis


(click for full images)
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16117
11. Patrap
6:36 PM GMT on January 27, 2014
Ready as can be, some sand...plenty of Food, and er, refreshments.

Be safe and warm down dere Doc'
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 419 Comments: 127355
10. DocNDswamp
6:20 PM GMT on January 27, 2014
G'day Beell,
Jis trying maintain the site meme, lol, with all this extreme weather whipass... I mean lash...

One day I'm gonna post wx data from S TX and S LA from Feb 1899 to highlight wild swings of "variability"... stay tuned. ;)

Glad you dropped by, yes it was about past time I posted sumthin'...

Sneaux dreams to ya on other side da Sabine!
(lot more promising for brown grass turning white over there)

Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4785
9. beell
6:02 PM GMT on January 27, 2014
Ok, so now we know. One round of wintry weather don't get it. But TWO rounds in 3 days qualifies. Hopefully, this criteria will not have to be met next June!

Great to be looking at a weather blog on the other side of the Sabine, Doc!

And I like the way you dream regarding the colder erosion of da' nose. 4-8" of sneaux would be grand. It could happen.

Will catch back up to you after the work day.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16117
8. DocNDswamp
5:52 PM GMT on January 27, 2014
"A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for our area"

But man, it's too hot and humid to work outside now - jeez, it's zoomed up to 69.3F degrees!
;)
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4785
7. DocNDswamp
5:46 PM GMT on January 27, 2014
Hiya Barefoot, me too!
I'll have to dig thru quite bit of the old historical data to find what record heaviest ice storm is here. The ice in '04 was about 1/4", and issue in '89 wasn't frz rain but about 1/2" of sleet the 4" snow fell on.

I know what you mean, noticed comments sometimes very slow to show up - I posted in Chris Burt's blog other day, didn't show, figured I was banned from his blog due to previous comments I... well you know!
But it did 10 minutes later.

Glad to see ya stop by, G'day!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4785
6. DocNDswamp
5:36 PM GMT on January 27, 2014
Good day friends,

Hey Bug, rarer than snow the blog passes the white glove test... lol! But I may have jinxed myself ridding the dust accumulation to make way for snow -- lastest forecast from KLIX has none here, just plentiful rain / ice... "oh what fun it is to ride"... ;)

Hi Huri, great to see ya!
Yes, bet you'll see a decent addition to the snow cover.
Some parts both SC / NC should get impressive tallies. And thanks, will do, and same best wishes to ya... Last time had frz rain to measurable snow was Christmas '04 locally but main roads were okay except bridges / overpasses, similar to last Friday... Bit more concerned with this one...

Hello Linda,
Yes, gonna wrap up needs / duties early and wait / see... some rain early already has cancelled outdoor work thoughts, tho we'll see. This winter, been trimming tree limbs, rogue saplings and hellacious task removing poison ivy vines around 'em, some 1-2" thick... ain't slogging thru da mud, it'll wait.
Hey, when we were kids, we used to cut vines at bottom of large live oaks and swing like Tarzan thru the woods... till nasty rash covering head to toe proved we picked wrong vines! LOL!!!

***

Hmmm, gonna check latest model runs, head out a bit...
Wasn't too amused KLIX forecasted "light snow accumulations" for Thibodaux, not for Houma / Bayou Cane. LOL, if add up all their "ice accumulation 1/4 inch" forecasts our trees / powerlines will double or triple in size... Yech... Bit skeptical they state even into Wed morn continuing same light frz rain / sleet, sans snow with a low temp of 20F... Gotta have at least a dang 1/4" to 1/2" dusting.

Laters!

Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4785
5. Barefootontherocks
5:19 PM GMT on January 27, 2014
Left a comment few minutes ago... Hmmm.
Anyway, I am wishing the incoming weather challenges Houma's 1895 snowfall record and not the record ice accumulation. Hope you don't have to wait three days for a thaw. Take care.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 150 Comments: 18243
4. Thoughtsteader
2:03 PM GMT on January 27, 2014
Well, lookie here! All tidied up and ready for whatever comes. Nothing to do now but wait and see. There's still a bit of fog here, and everything's warm and wet. I need that wind to pick up and dry things off so I can go to work before it gets wet again. What a life. ;)





Member Since: January 16, 2014 Posts: 31 Comments: 464
3. hurigo
1:30 PM GMT on January 27, 2014
My comment did not post. Attempt two
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6728
2. hurigo
1:29 PM GMT on January 27, 2014
Good morning, Doc.
Oh, ugh, yuck, all those words formed a stew in my head this morning when I watched the local mets saying yes, we would have another snow storm. As much as six inches Dare County. We're outside the bulls eye with a 1-4 projection depending on which model. We still have snow on the ground from the last one. I am so sorry at what you are facing down there with ice topped with snow. What can I say? Be safe and comfortable, please.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6728
1. palmettobug53
12:59 PM GMT on January 27, 2014
♫ ♪ Hallelujah! ♪ ♫


Sniff.... Ahhhhhhhh.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 232 Comments: 24927

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