SE LA obs...

By: DocNDswamp , 7:05 PM GMT on April 02, 2010

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Latest W Atlantic Basin AVN / IR Satellite Image...

W Atlantic Basin AVN Satellite Image

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Louisiana's State Wildflower reaches peak bloom in April...



Louisiana Irises on Lake Verret, at Magazille Point on April 15 2005... A refreshing late March to mid April view common across SE LA's freshwater wetlands / waterways as irises bloom with Spring's arrival...

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Note: As always, please check the comments section for any additional updated information... ;)

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Monday May 3 2010 1:30 PM... Summer-like warmth setting in this week... Calmer winds / seas to help with spill efforts...

Finally got out of the LL stratus fog gloom as sun has been peeking thru leftover high cloudiness... and getting warmer, already have reached 87F (warmest yet this year!) and some stations to west are nearing 90 today... More of same this week ahead as summer temps dig in... One more short wave coming across from NM over TX that might enhance rain chances for those E of here into tomorrow, but boundary passed here yesterday eve for most part - focusing shwrs / tstms from S Lafourche N/NEWD toward NOLA, etc... and continuing EWD today, so limited chances here...

Fortunately the strong winds dropped off almost abruptly late aftn / last night... and remain a good bit lighter today, so improving conditions for working on containment, other spill efforts...

Did get a minimal amt rainfall late aftn / eve Sunday from foggy drizzle, or "frizzle" lol... tallied .09" amt at home... Meanwhile HUML1 station showing zero, so getting suspicious of their rain gauge (which usually even records minor amts from overnight fog)... Was interesting watching 36 hr vis / IR / WV imagery showing chunk of the Cen Am disturbance get forced NWD between flow of ridge to east / trof to west, that helped fire up activity on tail end of CONUS frontal trof over extreme E SE LA / S MS late aftn / last night... For those with memory of GFS runs of 10-12 days ago, this barely perceptable event was the one that had been shown as an organized tropical low immediately offshore near Tehuantepec slide into S MX and lift NWD into Gulf toward N Cen coast with frontal trof... LOL, didn't happen exactly that way, but darn close... The northern portion of Cen Am monsoon has taken a beating from shear lately, but will rebound - Panama has hardly noticed any difference as strong convection / hvy rains continue reforming...


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Wed Apr 28 2010 11:15 PM CDT... Dry April transitioning to wetter / warmer start to May... Coastal Flood Statement / Watch in effect for high tides / water levels coming... MS River delta wetlands to be impacted by mammoth oil spill... Still watching the monsoonal gyre over Cen Am / E Pac for potential low pressure consolidation...

April 2010 in SE LA...
Locally for the month, temps have averaged right at normal with the slowly warming rebound from a remarkably sustained cold Winter - had 5 straight months of below avg temps... The majority of April days have had typically comfortable low-mod humidity of early Spring, but muggy season looms... Reached warmest temp yet with 84F reading on Mon Apr 26, but we've been averaging mid-up 50 lows w high near 80... Warmer, more humid and wetter days appear ahead to start May...

Unless we get a hvy rain on Fri, the trend of dry Aprils over past decade has continued; officially, the last April with near norm rainfall was in 2006 and only 2004 had a notable 2" plus surplus... Most have come nowhere near avg of 4.46" amt... So far, only had 3 rain days to total .66" amt at HUML1, while received 1.76" at my Bayou Cane home thanks to good 1.02" downpour on 19th that mostly missed the station to the NW (parts of SW Houma had over 2")... On the plus side, the severe wx season has bypassed us to the north this year, although it's far from over...

Looking ahead, after chilly Wed Apr 28 lows of mid-40's to low-mid 50's over region (a nice 51-78F range here), sfc high shifts EWD and locks in place with broad Atlantic sfc ridge, setting up very strong return flow off the Gulf for next several days... SE / S winds will be ripping up to 20-30 mph as pressure gradient tightens in response to western trof / developing low over SW - Rockies and expect boundary to remain stalled to our N / NW into early next week, draped over Midwest / mid-MS / TN valleys... EWD progress will be blocked as we see an amplified pattern shape up as mid-upper ridge will be building NWD from SA / Caribbean over Gulf / SE states - with the mid level ridge centered over FL pen, UL ridge centered over S Gulf...

Already the NWS has issued coastal flood watches for our area as persistent SE-SLY winds will combine with high astronomical tides for potential water levels of 2-3 ft above norm... That's also not good news considering the huge oil spill ongoing just off the mouth of the river from the tragic oil rig disaster to potentially threaten coastal ecosystems... Massive containment booms, dispersants, even burning some of the oil slick today have been employed trying to minimize the impact, which seems unavoidable at this point...

Warmer, moist tropical air on the way for us - and downright summer heat over S TX expected with temps rising into 90's to 100F range - as desert heat WAA spreads NWD from both SLY sfc / SWLY flow aloft, but will also reintroduce a 850-700 mb inversion / cap over broad region to limit activity... However, chance scat shwrs / tstms rise Friday enhanced by strong, moist low level SLY flow, increased lift with frontal approach / short wave NW of here tracking in SWLY flow aloft - yep, could get wet at Jazz Fest again! Chances for scat shwrs / tstms will remain (but wax / wane) thru the period as we stay in warm moist flow and several disturbances pass along that quasi-stationary boundary initiating fresh activity... Outside of rain-cooled areas where sun breaks thru, temps could rise into mid-upper 80's, so daytime heating could factor into localized tstm development... Heaviest rainfall expected above closer to / along frontal boundary extending NEWD from NE TX, while early guidance from SPC puts better chances (slight risk) for severe wx from Plains into Midwest initially, expected to expand EWD over broader area w slow progression / multiple short waves / sfc lows - we'll have to see if a zone of moderate risk is later targeted... Parts of the lower MS valley / mid-South areas slammed by past deadly severe wx outbreak may receive hvy rains and again, strong to severe tstms as boundary stalls then sags slowly E and SWD... Hopefully the worst stricken areas get a break this go round, but the HPC is putting a bullseye for hvy precip over N LA, AR, NW MS into W TN over 3-4 day period... SE LA could get into heavier rains by Mon-Tue as frontal boundary drifts SE and a stronger upper impulse finally kicks the system EWD by Wed with bit cooler, drier wx behind it...


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Fri Apr 23 12:15 PM CDT: Round 2 of severe wx today, rd 3 Saturday... Large area of moderate risk...

"All forms of severe wx possible"... You betcha, as we're now into day 2 of the strongest multi-day severe wx outbreak yet this Spring thanks to that monstrous deep-layered low with several embedded short waves and low pressure centers rotating around it... As suspected in last week's outlook, it's a lousy start for NOLA's Jazz Fest and any other activity... Strong SLY winds have been ripping at 20-30 mph... Shwrs and tstms are moving over Terrebonne currently at noon hr - some hail indicated! - with more expected this aftn... While heaviest should occur N of here both days, it will be rough locally as well... This IS a dangerous situation where explosive development can initiate in short period, so head's up all!

Short on time, just wanted to touch bases briefly...

Late next week, could have similar episode... while early season tropical wx enthusiasts will have plenty to watch as a broad monsoon trof is set to develop over Cen Am with sfc to lower mid level convergence of Atlantic easterlies meeting E Pac westerlies... fully capable of spinning up more than one sfc low center on either side of Panama-Nicaragua, with mountainous land interaction being the limiting factor... This set up is very similar to 2008 when we had both E Pac's Alma and Atlantic's Arthur develop close together... Regardless, very hvy life-threatening flash-flooding rains causing mudslides could be expected from this long-duration event as we end April go into May... Mid - upper level winds appear favorable for limited development in that region...

Storming outside presently, had SLY gust near or over 40 mph last couple minutes in this quick developing tstm cluster!

Stay safe everyone!!!


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Tax Day Greetings, Thu Apr 15 1:30 PM CDT...

Okay, not the most pleasant of thoughts, is it...

Weatherwise, back to warm / dry forecast after yesterday's little tease, which the GFS did a fine job forecasting, both on timing / location and motion... Had nice moisture advection off Gulf, a weak low-mid level feature that aided in lift as it drifted NW around the periphery of the ridge combined with efficient daytime heating... But no rain locally as expected... Was a neat day for cloud watching - started daybreak with some patchy mid-upper alto and cirrocumulus blowing off the persistent Rio Grande disturbance with sun poking thru, then quickly had an almost overcast low level stratus field develop off the Gulf and encompass SE LA, oriented NE-SW lifting toward the NW... which translated to growing low-based cumulus with shwrs / a few tstms developing west of here in a arc from near Morgan City into SW MS... LOL, actually saw some columns of towering cumulus develop by mid aftn but nada rainfall... Feature lifted across LA before croaking near sunset with loss of daytime heating, dissipating mid level feature and dry air / capping reestablished from the ridge... Quite a summery feel locally with higher humidity and plentiful sunshine as we reached our warmest reading yet - 82F... Should be close to that or so next couple days...

Strong subsidence under the ridge back in place today despite high LL moisture in the breezy E / SE flow... Abundant rainfall expected to overspread TX / OK with an advancing trof trying to edge out the ridge but little in way of rainfall chances locally until this weekend and that remains questionable... Perhaps Sat night into Sunday with frontal passage, although may build across / drop down shunting the moisture supply S and E, esp with series of weak Gulf lows passing well to our S concentrating the moisture... The repeating ridge pattern over E 1/2 US since Apr began should be breaking down to more of a broad trof, more zonal or progressive pattern which could allow next 10 days or so of Apr to become cooler w better rain chances... We will want to keep our eyes on the model runs for next week - esp toward the weekend as the GFS has been insisting a very deep and strong system could be impacting a large area as it moves across, potentially with severe wx and hvy, flooding rainfall should this verify... Yeah, you betcha - just in time to make the 1st weekend of JazzFest (Apr 23-25) a mud-wallowing experience! Usual caveats apply - we're still talking 7-10 days out...

Atlantic Tropics remain as quiet as expected for April... We'll look for any dramatic changes next month in the upper level flow, and for a more pronounced development in the AB high which has been very weak and transitional... Meanwhile, unless a subtropical oddity pops up, the strong and unfavorable mid and upper level westerlies remain well entrenched down to 10-15N... Still seeing a healthy southern branch subtropical jet stream flow... Any mid level subtropical ridging has been short-lived and suppressed equatorward from the persistent westerlies (although we do see upper ridging / mid level reflection trying to build NWD from northern portion Eastern South America across the lower MDR - and roughly centered near or E of Windwards as has done several periods thru Winter / Spring)... Yeah, we'd love to have this hold thru Summer into Aug-Sep - or at least force or leave a more chaotic, broken mid-upper stream flow in place over the MDR to offset those favorable warm SST's... ;)


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Under 80F streak ends...
Mon Apr 5 2010 3:45 PM CDT: A near summer-like feel on Easter Sunday as 138 day streak of high temp below 80F ends...

Okay, wasn't really summer-like, but the higher humidity and warmth was notable - almost I dare say, semi-oppressive feeling, LOL - after such an extended cooler than avg period, with March 2010 completing our 5th straight month of below avg temps... a top 5 coldest Met Winter on record... and one of the coldest Jan / Feb / Mar ever to begin a year...

I'll post more on the past Winter's consistent cold later... and the frustrating revelations I discovered in retrieving the temp records trying to put the season in historical context... thanks to multiple data sets from various "official" sources containing widely varying temp / precip records due to "adjustments"! Yeah, right... "trust the data" mantra! - Which data set? Well, I trust the data raw and direct from the station, thank you! Unfortunately, since about 4 years ago, access to this station's raw data prior to 1976 (and accurate highs / lows / MT's / rainfall records) is only available from the NCDC / SRCC for a sum into hundreds of dollars... leaving the highly suspect, and clearly manipulated USHCN / GHCN / GISS data sets freely available... Oh well, so it goes...

As expected, our cool streak of high temps holding below 80F finally came to an end early aftn Easter Sunday Apr 4th when HUML1 station hit 80F and peaked at 81F under mostly sunny / partly cloudy skies and light SLY winds... The last time it was 80F was back on Nov 15-16 - the only 80's of Nov - giving a streak of 138 days with high below 80F, likely another record... The light SLY winds were key, with less moderating influence from still cool low-mid 60F degree Gulf waters below... Still some stations right on the coast haven't gotten past 70's yet... My consolation on reaching 80F is tempered in knowing most every station from the SW / E Rockies / S Plains / Midwest to the East Coast hit 80 - and some 90's - before we did! Seeing a near repeat of same today, have touched 80F so far and SELY winds are a bit more breezy today so won't go much higher... Fog has also been widespread across N Gulf last couple mornings, perhaps again into Tue morn if winds drop light enough... Frontal system expected to bring welcome chances of rain by Wed / Thu over the area and cooler temps behind it's passage... Like many past Springs, drought concerns loom if substantial rainfall fails to materialize, as the state climatology office mentions - now into our 7th week with below avg precip across Louisiana... LOL, the rainfall pattern has been more inconsistent than the temps...

Also of note - locally the azaleas are nearing peak bloom, this being about 3 weeks later than avg due to cold Winter... March began with nearly all growth running 3-4 weeks behind norm, with brown lawns / trees nearly as barren as usually seen in early Feb... The Jap Magnolias, redbuds, peach / pear trees were in peak bloom far later than avg... But with much longer day lengths, March showed incredibly fast recovery in greening the landscape, despite mean temps running 5.6 degrees below avg here... LOL, the cool wx loving early clover - both white and (aggravating) bur clover grew profusely this year and continue thriving...

Oh and there's another missing element due to our prolonged cold Winter and this is VERY noticeable right now - a near complete absence of MOSQUITOES!!! I think I may have had a sighting Sat aftn while cutting some old dead grass along a now dried up ditch... as a cloud of perhaps newly hatched skeeters lifted up, but were too small to confirm... and I haven't had one land on me yet... Yeah, I know they'll be resurrected soon enough... Hallelujah, the benefits of sustained cold Winters!



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Friday April 2 2010, 2 PM CDT...

"Happy Easter 2010 weekend all!"
Good Friday and happy Easter Holiday weekend wishes to all!

LOL, too short on time to post anything but a greeting... I'll add wx obs, some review of our cold Winter / Spring data, relevant or non-relevant stuff later... Simply put, the old December blog had to go! I was cringing anytime I saw it on the active blog list, as it wasn't... ;)

Have a good 'un!

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337. DocNDswamp
4:11 PM GMT on June 28, 2010
Good morning, Mon June 28...

Hey Finn,

That's exactly what I fear from Alex, combined w cold frontal boundary to N that will be draped above our region... Prolonged hvy rains / flood event to develop this week... Esp with position of Alex over BOC / W Gulf, the low-mid level flow around the subtropical ridge, the entire Gulf is an alleyway for huge advection of deep tropical moisture pooling over the N Gulf... Besides the obvious concern for TX getting a cat 2-3 landfall, the forecast for all of us on the east side is several days of very hvy accumulations...
I've had concerns of Alex resembling an Audrey, but overall effects regionally could be more like an Allison for some spots, esp here from such a very large TC...

And LOL, you are absolutely correct... Turquoise it is, a perfect match!

***

Hurricane Watch posted along NE MX / S TX coasts...

Coastal Flood Watch posted SE LA coast...

TS Alex reached the BOC and came to a near stall late Sunday, drifted N and moving slowly NNW today in somewhat weaker steering flow... Guess this was the "wallowing / festering in BOC" period GFS had advertised, as the approaching CONUS trof has began shunting the subtropical ridge EWD, forcing the stall and NWD shift in Alex's track... Continuing to increase in strength, now up to 60 mph and could become a hurricane later today... If tracks more toward Cen TX coast landfall by Thu or so, Alex could potentially become a major hurricane, but is quite likely to attain 90-100 mph winds at least...

(12:30 edit: Viewing vis sat images, appeared Alex may have been drifting more NNE this morn, however may be more the case of the mid level circ also being shunted a little more N and EWD, off-center... Fresh convection appears building back more over LLC... Also a closer look at RH analysis and WV imagery shows there is a wedge of notable dry air at 650 mb to around 300 mb heights - sharpest contrast delineation at 450 mb - lying between the core of Alex and the upper trof to the west that could contribute some disruptive effects)...

Away from the storm, effects are already being felt from the huge circulation setting up... S / SE winds began to be felt Sunday over coastal SE LA, and increasing today... very notable tropical feel to the air and skies, as shwrs / tstms developed w towering cumulus noted with patchy cirrus above... A band of shwrs tstms lifted onto coastal SE LA early this morn in seabreeze fashion, and more developing on the way as sat imagery shows - some of this enhanced by transitioning ULL over LA getting kicked out EWD, weakened or absorbed by larger advancing CONUS trof... This week looks tropically ugly, as expected...

S LA Tides are already running a foot above norm, espected to keep rising, and along with hvy rains expected, hence the coastal flood watch issued at least thru Wednesday... Large sea swells will be propagating across the Gulf and coastal winds / wave heights to steadily increase next 3-4 days from Alex's broad circulation field... Alex may be a MX / TX storm, but it still represents a major disruption over the oil spill disaster, will most likely shift and spread the oil around further... and may interrupt containment / relief drilling efforts...

BBL...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
336. LakeWorthFinn
9:49 PM GMT on June 27, 2010
Ah, yeah, the three letter wx-words still get to me me... GOM BOC, DOC, COC, etc... but you knew which one I meant. Nobody mentioned it, so musta been just dots in my eyes after staring at swirly thingys :)
Yeah, hopefully Alex could be a nice rainmaker for you like TS Fay was for us in SEFL a few years ago - huge, wet & quick, though further North it flooded some areas.
Glad the color matched your bathroom. I love turquoise toilet seats! lmao
A bientôt!

Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7392
335. DocNDswamp
8:09 PM GMT on June 27, 2010
Hiya Finn and Bug, good Sunday to yas!

Didn't realize y'all had dropped by, been posting some at Beell's...

Hey Finn, I think ya meant the blobbiness in SW Caribbean?
NHC mentions it as enhanced low level convergence off the ITCZ, dunno as I thought it might be the wave that was trailing behind Alex...

Hello Bug,
Appears you might have some storminess / possible hvy rains to consider later this week too... if the frontal trof / short wave and low-mid convergence induced low develops along NE Gulf / SE states region as GFS has been advertising... Who knows, could be some development after gets shoved offshore Atlantic... really looks like potentially a hvy rainmaker for most part... Like we need something besides Alex!

And I know what ya mean... if I go to TOD, I'm stuck in there for hours, taking it all in...

LOL, plenty to keep up on...
As we've all seen the alarming new prospects from last day's worth GFS runs which finally decided it wanted to join the crowd blowing up Alex into a bigger monster moving toward somewhere on TX coast to near TX-LA border later this week... Some of those runs are quite scary, and last thing we need see is another Audrey in late June... But a major hurricane is a possibility with Alex if tracks as such, and eludes any shear / continental dry air issues...

Sure makes us nervous the GFS and CMC have both locked into similar more-NWD solutions last day or so almost identically... Latest 12Z ECMWF maintains the strength of subtropical steering ridge, bringing Alex near Tampico on Wed...

Still well-defined Alex is within a couple hrs of moving into BOC as nears close by Ciudad del Carmen...

Well, really can't add more details here now,
work duties are calling...

BBL...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
334. palmettobug53
3:12 PM GMT on June 27, 2010
Morning, Doc.

I was wondering when our extra active season was going to kick in. It seems awful quiet for most of the month. Not that I'm complaining but it makes me a bit nervous about how much is going to be crammed into the rest of the season. ACK!

My coworkers that watch the tropics kept asking me about that blob. I told them to expect a TD, at the very least, by Sat. Turned out to be TS Alex but I wasn't too far off!

I guess I haven't popped into TOD often enough to catch the fact that Margie was posting over there. I peep in but it's usually a fly by. Too many emails, too many blogs and too many websites on my list. It's hard to absorb them all.

Hope things are going well with you, mon ami.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 25258
333. LakeWorthFinn
3:02 PM GMT on June 27, 2010
Hot and humid down here too!
Alex is HUGE, the size of GOM!
What's that thingy SE behind it in BOC?
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7392
332. DocNDswamp
6:54 PM GMT on June 26, 2010
Hiya Gams,
Well whatever Alex does, we may still have issues to contend with, as mentioned above...
Hoping (beyond hope?) for minor trop disturbance with more rain than wind along our coast at worst, lol! However, winds, sea swells and tides will be increasing...

Have a good one, I'm heading out too!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
331. DocNDswamp
6:50 PM GMT on June 26, 2010
TS Alex has really had a dramatic burst in forward speed, less time for further strengthening at pace it's moving toward Belize / Chetumal... That's encouraging...

Good news / bad news with 12Z GFS, as takes Alex into lower BOC but with broad, expansive low in place, deep trop moisture / low-mid vorticity lifting NWD over Gulf and perhaps N stream mid level feature coming across, now spawns a second low sitting off SE LA coast by Tue! Alex eventually drifts into MX, but Gulf low / vortex waits on secondary amplifying, digging of trof or short wave to latch onto it, have it crawl agonizingly slow along / over NE Gulf - SE states... intensifying as goes, swept out with the trof into Atlantic... Why the GFS has been worrisome, as has shown versions of this set-up for several runs (have seen this, but never did see what Jeff, some others mentioned of GFS bringing Alex to N Cen Gulf area, certainly not as in it's current identity)...

LOL, far from outta the woods for N Gulf coasties!
Expectations for a stormy week ahead remain, regardless... just hope not strong enough to curtail spill containment ops, but quite possible...

We'll see...
Gotta run,
BBL when can...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
330. seflagamma
6:28 PM GMT on June 26, 2010
Hi Doc,

Hot and hotter, yes that is the ticket this summer for most of us.

Sure hope Alex does what is right and keeps heading westward.....

Not much time these days but wanted to pop in and say hello...

will be in and out a lot checking on Alex and other systems as they pop up...

Try to find some fun time this weekend.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40926
329. DocNDswamp
4:45 PM GMT on June 26, 2010
Good day, Sat June 26...

Heat advisory on again for SE LA... Have to see if "dry" forecast pans out at my location, but HOT is a guarantee!

TS Alex continues to look quite large and impressive, although as NHC mentions inner structure has not rapidly organized, but steady strengthening could be expected before landfall tonight...

Almost all models have shifted WWD, w last 0Z Euro offering what we'd like to see w a continued low lat track over BOC on into E Cen MX... HWRF slower in forward progress as taking it inland a bit above... CMC and as last GFDL toward Brownsville... and GFS runs even slower than the already projected slow down in forward motion next week... The later the approach of CONUS trof influence the better as could allow current steering ridge to drive it inland over SW Gulf, but... sure appears steering will go flat, a crawl / stall quite possible Tue-Thu, leaving a lot of uncertainty with potential trof interaction late week... but agree Alex could easily become a formidable hurricane in W Gulf if maintains organization / re-org after reaching BOC moving WNW / NW... perhaps less so with the quicker ECM low lat track... A slow crawl will put everyone on pins / needles...
We shall see...

Hey MS Wx,
No doubt, was very tall, cold cloud tops exploding over / near the center... Impressive convection ongoing...

Hiya Shore,
LOL, those chores are demanding more of my attention than I'd like... every day it's rained - over a week now - is making that load worse and getting me farther behind, so can't be here as much as wish...

The 60 mph possible intensity landfall I was pondering about is for tonight into Yucatan, not 5 days later! LOL, all bets off there... The uncertainty (esp after slowing) and plethora of "maybe's" offered by the GFS has been worrisome for days now...

Later!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
328. shoreacres
11:56 AM GMT on June 26, 2010
Morning, Doc,

Finish up any of those chores, 'k? LOL

You: It's looking healthy / conditions favorable! 60 mph at landfall, maybe?
Them: 120hr VT 01/0600z 24.5n 95.5w 60 kt

I'll tell you this - the GFS is not my friend this morning, although it did make me laugh. Briefly. Off to start the day - check you later.

(ADD: GFS apparently heard my complaint and has gotten more in line w/its friends)
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
327. MississippiWx
8:18 AM GMT on June 26, 2010
Quoting DocNDswamp:
Lied, of course viewing the loops before check out Z...

LOL, on W Atl sat loops Darby appears running away scared at the sight of quickly growing TD 1 / Alex...

Warrants concern as that's an impressive presentation tonight showing textbook / classic outflow pattern developed, in sync with broad intensifying low, convective bands wrapping in, more right over center, it's looking healthy / conditions favorable! 60 mph at landfall, maybe?

All along W Gulf to NE Gulf / SE could be affected over course of next week with slow moving flooding-rain-more-than-wind tropical disturbance / progressive trof interaction, indicated by 0Z GFS... LOL, hoping most organized wanna see this large system is next 18 hrs or so... or less... the appearance tonight shows a ton of potential...

ZZZZZzzzzz.....


Doc, I just missed ya! Alex is doing a crazy thing right now. It almost appears to have an eye like feature. Levi, on the main blog, seems to think it's an over-shooting thunderstorm right over the center that is shooting right into the stratosphere, where the air becomes warmer again. I'll post a pic below. Alex is certainly putting on a show tonight!

Look closely, and you can see a darker "speck" right in the center of the system.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
326. DocNDswamp
7:44 AM GMT on June 26, 2010
Lied, of course viewing the loops before check out Z...

LOL, on W Atl sat loops Darby appears running away scared at the sight of quickly growing TD 1 / Alex...

Warrants concern as that's an impressive presentation tonight showing textbook / classic outflow pattern developed, in sync with broad intensifying low, convective bands wrapping in, more right over center, it's looking healthy / conditions favorable! 60 mph at landfall, maybe?

All along W Gulf to NE Gulf / SE could be affected over course of next week with slow moving flooding-rain-more-than-wind tropical disturbance / progressive trof interaction, indicated by 0Z GFS... LOL, hoping most organized wanna see this large system is next 18 hrs or so... or less... the appearance tonight shows a ton of potential...

ZZZZZzzzzz.....
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
325. DocNDswamp
5:04 AM GMT on June 26, 2010
Good evening / late nite / early morning,

Had another .83" amt rain didn't need today, lol... Hate these "drier forecast" days when only iso t-shwrs pop, and they're over me!

93L finally graduated to TD #1 status... and remained so for 10 PM advisory, so we'll see if can become Alex tomorrow before moving into Yucatan late aftn / eve... N Belize / Chetumal area would seem likely if maintains WNW motion (280-285?), perhaps higher up if 295 as advertised... Quite a large system overall - compared to tiny H Darby nearby in E Pac...

Will have to see next few model runs / degree of organization toward Yuc landfall / trek across before getting a sense of it's chances when emerges / tracks into the Gulf... guidance remains iffy whether we'll have a concentrated system or broad / elongated disorganized feature, but sure looks stormy w hvy rains on east side of whatever we get...

***

Hiya Emmy,
Well, seems less a chance with a Bonnie from 94L as viewing WV loop shows that ULL just to it's NW hasn't budged, forcing high shear and prolly dry air into it... Last couple GFS runs showed same and have backed off a good bit... LOL, I'm sure Bermuda folks aren't disappointed if doesn't happen...

Hey Barefoot,
Glad to see ya drop by...
Yes, Celia was an AWESOME view, classic Cat 5!
LOL, I haven't dared go past reading Jeff's thoughts over there... Bet it was abuzz with all the development today!
Yeah, Bobby J is an expert speaker when he's on a roll, lol... Thanks for the kind thoughts, and equally returned!

Hi Pat,
I like the tracks that show it farther to SW and the weaker the better! LOL... we'll be watching closely - I'm sure ya caught all the headline attention it's gotten in local media / TV this aftn...

Hello Shore,
Thanks for the TOD linky, no doubt resembles Jeff's blog somewhat today, lol! Margie K's knowledgable and was a good contributor here (although rubbed some of us raw with some "IMHO's" that were not quite so humble on a couple post-K issues, IMHO - LOL!)

Hey Finn,
Well, uh... thanks! Nice color match, too... ;)
But the repair / reassembly went fine... all back in working order, lol!

***

Well, will check tomorrow on our brand new tropical cyclone's progress... Was too long and busy a day for me to add much meaningful tonight... LOL, not worthy of an all-nighter yet!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
324. LakeWorthFinn
3:09 AM GMT on June 26, 2010
Finn lurkin' and leaving a new toilet seat on the front step - was buy one get one free... 8-D
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7392
323. shoreacres
2:41 AM GMT on June 26, 2010
There's a new thread at TOD - Gulf of Mexico Storm Watch.

Apparently Margie Kieper is doing more than just posting there - she's working in the background, too. That's especially good to know.

Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
322. Patrap
1:39 AM GMT on June 26, 2010
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Early Model Wind Forecasts

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
321. Barefootontherocks
1:33 AM GMT on June 26, 2010
And my God what a beautiful Cat 5 hurricane Celia became yesterday - moving out to sea bothering only the fish, a gorgeous image of a perfectly circular storm on sat view!

LOL, DOC. Glad I'm not the only one who noticed that. Well, I'm sure there were others. I didn't even know she was a Cat 5 but I decided to take a look. What a beautiful picture she made.

Well, I'm trying to break my wu habit. (Seventeen LOLs on that!) HAD TO check in today to see the start of 2010 Atlantic tropic season. The kids in the main blog sure were whooping it up and having a great time!

Saw Bobby Jindal and other LA residents speak yesterday on cnn. He's sure got a lot of energy, that guy! I hope everything works out well in LA. I know it won't be easy or soon. Thinking good thoughts for you, even if you don't see me around.
:)
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 156 Comments: 18959
320. EmmyRose
7:56 PM GMT on June 25, 2010
Hiya Doc
You said:
LOL, who knows, we might easily have both Alex and Bonnie at same time!

This happened in 1933 - one hit Texas the
other FLA. a two-fer
Some pro mets really are comparing this season
to 1933....
Some people say raising twins are easier....
:-) Dont think it applies to wx though.
Be safe.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
319. DocNDswamp
3:31 PM GMT on June 25, 2010
Good day Fri June 25,

A very busy yesterday and today on tap here... Of course, lotta tropical activity to watch, keep abreast of... but of more immediate concern for me is - finding the needed parts, and putting my toilet back together... soon! Can't uh, put this on hold over staring at the potential tropical issues right now, LOL!!!

Hiya MS Wx,
Yes sir, remains several options on 93L's future and will take another day or so more for clearer view... A TD does seem imminent if remains offshore enough... It did appear the sfc circulation slowed or near stationary off Nic-Hon coast allowing the slower moving low-mid vorticity field to catch up, and / or fresh convection to build over it... (Dang, I sure miss the Hi Res QuikScat right about now!)... In one form or another we're gonna feel some effects on N Gulf by next week... Honestly, I just haven't had the time for any deeper analysis to devote to it...

But I sense there is a good chance we'll see TS Alex by early next week if not sooner... Question is if it will affect the Gulf region... or Bermuda, LOL!
As that 2nd feature has been showing signs of organizing despite the shearing of the ULL to it's NW... Changed my view on it of being possibly subtropical as subsequent model runs showed the ULL either weakening or shifting WWD allowing favorable ridge to build over it...

LOL, who knows, we might easily have both Alex and Bonnie at same time!

And my God what a beautiful Cat 5 hurricane Celia became yesterday - moving out to sea bothering only the fish, a gorgeous image of a perfectly circular storm on sat view!

Oh, locally was less rain around yesterday - but damn if I didn't get blasted with a very hvy downpour that dropped 1.28" amt in less than 15 minutes!

Okay, be back when other pressing real-life issues are done...

Happy TC monitoring!
BBL...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
318. MississippiWx
7:10 AM GMT on June 25, 2010
Hey Doc! Just realized I've been spending way too much time on the main blog. LOL. I need to get back set in my ways of coming to your blog first!

Interesting feature, 93L is! Tonight seems to be the best it has been organized its entire life. Seems to have some sort of closed low level center east/east-northeast of Nicaragua with deep convection continuing to build around/over the center. Seems like models are still useless at this point. EURO goes to extreme South TX, GFS (new version) goes to MS/AL/FL, GFDL same area, and HWRF same area. Canadian went from right on top of me, back down to Texas. LOL! One model might get lucky on a roll of the dice and nail the eventual track. As most of us know, a stronger 93L (Alex) will more than likely make a move towards us on the N Gulf Coast as it feels the weakness from the trof coming from the NW...For BP's sake and more importantly the ecosystem of the Gulf states, a weaker 93L (Alex) that moves more west would obviously be the better solution! I'm split right down the middle for now and have no idea what this thing is going to do! I'll have a little better feeling in the morning (well later today...it's 2:08AM Fri) of what this thing is going to do. A more organized, strengthening 93L in the morning will not bode well for the N Gulf Coast, IMO...

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
317. beell
4:24 AM GMT on June 24, 2010
LOLx2
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16879
316. DocNDswamp
4:12 AM GMT on June 24, 2010
Hey Beell,

Man, this is too funny - I just visited your blog to read your thoughts on 93L!

LOL, even better if it would just croak over Cen Am before gets a chance ANYWHERE in the Gulf, eh? Guess we might not be quite that lucky... but yeah, no long-term festering in the BOC either!

As for the GFS, I'll prolly trust it despite all other guidance saying otherwise, up until the point my roof blows off and I'm wiping slimey crude oil off my face, LOL!!!

Glad you stopped by, bud!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
315. beell
3:41 AM GMT on June 24, 2010
but the denialist GFS is looking a bit less the outlier, so far with 93L

LOL, Doc, and a Howdy!

If it would just move this system onshore somewhere along the western Gulf. Would hate to see something sit and stew in the far southern BOC.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16879
314. DocNDswamp
3:04 AM GMT on June 24, 2010
Good evening Shore,

Guess I clicked on here, took awhile gandering at everything, missed your post...

Ahhh well, I didn't really get much additional rain after this morn... Yep, your chances still look good tomorrow, despite work interference I bet y'all need the rain...

Wow, that's an interesting concept with the pipeline, thanks for the info! We sure could use something on that order, hope they can accomplish the task... LOL, indeed, the sooner the better before one of these tropical systems wakes up!

(edit): AND, that was a great hunch you had about the Seven Oceans ship's possible involvement!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
313. DocNDswamp
2:54 AM GMT on June 24, 2010
The 93L tease:
Saw this earlier and again with last available vis sat imagery views, but no obvious reason to post any sooner... After what've seen so far, I'm not sure if it's worth watching the convection around Hispaniola / Jamaica for development unless see same low-mid swirly blob persist to work it's way down, as clearly the naked sfc swirl is well west of shwrs / tstms... passed 80W late aftn, nearing 15N as appears moving WSW toward Nicaragua / Honduras presently... Who knows... Maybe will get it's act together next couple days if slows over NW Carib, drifts toward Yucatan... or maybe the next wave passing below PR-Hispaniola will do something...

LOL, not that it's breaking my morale if 93L doesn't satisfy those prior ECMWF / CMC / GFDL / HWRF alarmist outlooks for a N Cen Gulf hurricane... but the denialist GFS is looking a bit less the outlier, so far with 93L... Most of others seem coming to similar outlook at present... Prudent to keep eye on it all, of course, the current disorganized view is subject to change...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
312. shoreacres
2:01 AM GMT on June 24, 2010
Evening, Doc,

Happy b'day to your boon companion! lol You might want to think about inventing a computer that cleans fish - You could be rich!

Not a drop of rain here today, apart from a spritz or two on the windshield. A nice cloud cover kept the temps down a bit and the rain away. It was funny to see it get to Galveston Bay and then just fizzle, all day long. Maybe tomorrow.

A truly interesting note on TOD's latest post re: a possible intent to circumvent Gulf storms by sending production to another platform via pipeline, and then by pipeline to shore. The original article, posted in Upstreamonline.com, included this:

It emerged on Tuesday that the possibility of bad weather in the US Gulf has prompted federal officials to consider trying to tie back Macondo to an existing production platform where the oil could either be produced or re-injected into another formation.

The idea, which has never been announced before, was discussed at a meeting last week between US energy secretary Steven Chu, interior secretary Ken Salazar and industry officials, Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen said Tuesday. The closest platform, according to MMS maps, would be the Na Kika installation, where BP and Shell are partners on a number of tie-back developments.

The semi-submersible production platform is moored about 15 miles away on Mississippi Canyon Block 474, where it produces about 75,000 barrels per day.

The Nakika pipeline actually runs through Mississippi Canyon Block 252 but the production would need to be processed before entering the line, which runs to the US mainland. But Allen said the plan targeted a platform that was not being used for production.

He said the plan had only been discussed in “exploratory conversations” but the government had sent letters to operators that may have a suitable platform. The UK supermajor would then need to lay pipeline along the ocean floor and tie it in to the platform.


I really felt last weekend that Seven Oceans' arrival at the Port Isabel spool base was somehow related to the goings on at Macondo. I don't guess they can get their pipeline laid and the processing started before 93L gets a name and shows up, though. ;-)

Have a good evening - looks like we've still got a while to wait to see whazzup w/93L.
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
311. DocNDswamp
6:46 PM GMT on June 23, 2010
G'day Wed Jun 23...

LOL, happy birthday to my eMac computer... been in my possession and running for 7 years daily now... don't wanna think about typical life expectancy issues with these gadgets... Think I also got married on this date 33 years ago, lol... Nahhhh, the Mac has held together longer with fewer problems and anguish... although it never learned to clean fish either... ;)

Missed the rain yesterday at both locations, despite the abundance from passing mid-upper low feature... Shwrs / tstms arrived pre-dawn today, had over 6/10ths, more likely with daytime heating, but best concentration has shifted WWD... Drier trend in store next 2-3 days, as ridging reestablishes, back into mid 90's with slighter chances rain...

***

Hey Shore,
LOL, hope ya got the work done this morn, as that radar wasn't lying - sending this drought relief your way for next couple days - "Sproing" it shall be!

Yes, from broad or elongated tropical low pressure area with competing vorticity "centers" there has to be consolidation into one primary LL circulation center as we've seen on countless occasions... or sufficient distance apart for two systems to form and remain intact, typically a few hundred miles of separation needed (although thinking back to Tiny TS Marco one has to wonder about such close proximity possibilities of equally small, weak systems)... As for "training" of one after another, the repetitive E Pac activity of past week is good example with the 3 storms there, but again via sufficient separation...

I imagine Beell was talking about the chance for the CONUS trof coming across early next week dropping far enough S causing a break in the steering ridging pattern, leaving a weakness over the Gulf for 93L to lift NWD into - and various model's guidance remain in disagreement over trof / ridge pattern's strength / timing, plus 93L's position / strength at that time... Lotta options ahead, no conclusions drawn...

Plus: Thanks for that TOD comment link... Rockman lays out the bare reality of situation well!

***

Saw the mid level swirl of convection that blew up last night below Haiti has croaked, as 93L wave and area of interest to watch is still SE of Jamaica along 15-16N, moving W / WNW slowly (obviously, to take longer to go past than I estimated before)... Imagine that latest temporary mid level blow-up mentioned last night below Haiti, with nothing at sfc-low level to support it was left behind in the very weak flow near that height... While it's still a light ELY trade flow at sfc-low level, it appears almost stagnant at 500 mb... Also complicating the "view" of convective activity in E Carib is the other 850-mid vort max that lifted toward NW since yesterday from far SE Carib into the trailing peripheral "diffluent outflow" convection, plus another ELY wave now moving across E Caribbean enhancing additional activity in the region...

(edit / add: Seems the GFS remains the outlier among models with strong development chances of 93L... but it would be a kick in the pants if the cut-off low N of the Leewards it is indicating in 3-5 days developed Subtropical Storm Alex first, LOL!)...

Educational to watch all unfold and guess as always...
We having fun, yet?
LOL...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
310. shoreacres
11:40 AM GMT on June 23, 2010
Morning, Doc,

Even someone without coffee, contact lenses and weather smarts knows enough to look at this morning's radar and say, "Hmmmm...." lol

Rather reminds me of a pachinko game. As long as those "balls" just lay there, we're ok, but if some force pulls back the lever - SPROING!

But here's my real question. If two or three separate centers did develop (can't remember seeing that before - doesn't one usually absorb the others?) would they remain relatively weaker? Could a series of storms like that "train" like thunderstorms do?

I remember beell talking about that weakness in the ridge across the Yucatan being like a four-lane highway. Hate to see these things start traveling ;)

Better get rolling. I feel this compulsion to go do things!

ADD: A lovely example of telling it like it is.
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
309. DocNDswamp
4:49 AM GMT on June 23, 2010
and one last look...

Across the breadth of 93L, at intervals over 18 hrs today... I think I've spotted 5 temporary spin-ups competing at varied heights, LOL! Still in early stage to organize, might well shed the previous mentioned LL center candidate off to the west... fresh convection arcing broadly below Haiti focusing along 72-73W... or so... as we await signs of center consolidation / persistence along the wave... Fun to watch, might take a while, lol... Prefer it to stay weak / disorg enough to eventually bury itself into Yucatan... but not fester endlessly in BOC as 0Z just suggested... ;)

Viewing all the disturbed wx across E Carib, almost get sense of watching two systems trying to form...

Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
308. DocNDswamp
11:50 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Came back for another look at 93L before vis imagery gone... and looked at short wave IR / RGB... Appears the more consistent cyclonic feature, if a LLC is trying to shape up will be the one mentioned earlier to WSW of da blob ("largely sans convection noted near 15.5N / 74.5W") - at last look near 16N 75W, which appears consistent... Not much yet of sustained convection, but some firing around / over it... Seems should pass below Jamaica next 18-24 hrs or so if maintains W-WNW motion... The spinning blob lifting toward W tip Dom Rep appears more near mid level, transient feature... LOL, I think...

More work awaits...
Out -
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
307. DocNDswamp
6:15 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
93L development probability downgraded... for now...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

Short wave IR and RGB imagery shows 93L disorganized.. with brief spin-ups over broad area - the earlier one mentioned here has dissipated to the west off W tip Haiti... another of cyclonic turning, largely sans convection noted near 15.5N / 74.5W... and a bit more distinct turning on NW sector of the more concentrated hvy convective blob near 17N near 72W, below Haiti / Dom Rep border... and the spin within the blob itself roughly near 16N 70W... All moving WNW, after a more NW push (or pull) past 24 hrs...

Appears some dry air influence, but analysis shows most levels quite moist at 80% RH or higher over the broad context of the wave, with exception of the lowest layers of 1000 mb to particularly 925 mb down into 60-75% values, not exceptionally dry but notable contrast... driest pool mostly over Haiti, perhaps getting pulled into W side of disturbance... A bit reminiscent of what happened to 92L a week ago on June 14th after looking so promising / threatening...

Oh well, we shall see what comes of it next few days... besides the obvious increased rains over Greater Antilles...

Later!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
306. DocNDswamp
2:24 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Locally this month it's become the rare day it HASN'T rained... and another soggy day expected, as disturbance over NE Gulf region rotating in upper NELY flow around the ridge to our west / WNW promises more action... Had another very strong mesocyclone tstm move over Terrebonne yesterday right after I last posted w hvy lightning, downpour and 1" hail as indicated by VIL mode which briefly approached 55-60 kg over narrow area, but moved quickly thru... Although didn't see any hail reports on KLIX from here, not surprising if just wasn't reported OR KLIX didn't bother to post... And once again, KLIX waited too late in putting out the severe warning for Terrebonne (as they often do here!) - was already well past Houma by then, lol...

Hmmmmm, looking at the E Caribbean / 93L... Nice convective activity and diffluent outflow pattern under the moist upper ridge, but not seeing significant organization yet... Viewing on short wave IR, appears some LL spin just below Haiti nearing 17N, past 72W, to the west of heaviest convection... also see the little feature the GFS had been showing, some cyclonic turning in far SE Carib that moved past Trinidad overnight, roughly near 63W, but little convection associated with it, and is apparently not being ID'd as a wave by NHC (but mentions one near 58-59W)...

Plenty to watch, nothing alarming... yet, LOL...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
305. DocNDswamp
1:56 PM GMT on June 22, 2010
Howdy, Tue Jun 22,

Hey Shore,
Well it has served as my morning giggle - wildbourgman is a familiar poster on the HoumaToday / Courier forums.

LOL, I'd had the thought of collecting the goo and offering it on ebay, then again with the wide availability of material to source, I guess we could say in time the market will likely become... uh, flooded! But I could sure beat the price that guy was asking - thousand bucks a bottle!
LOL...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
304. shoreacres
4:02 AM GMT on June 22, 2010
Here's your late evening giggle, Doc. Just found someone from your hometown over on The Oil Drum:

fritzie-borgwardt on June 21, 2010 - 9:35pm
Can anyone tell me if there are any substances that could help school children simulate micro experiments as in they act like the crude spill components and the salt water of the Gulf?

[new] wildbourgman on June 21, 2010 - 10:16pm
Use the real deal, in my home town of Houma we have a local councilman that's selling jars of oil from the spill to raise charitable funds. I'm sure Nalco will sell you guys some corexit 9500. They say none of this stuff is bad. They promise.

Gotta love that good old American entrepreneurial spirit!
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
303. DocNDswamp
7:39 PM GMT on June 21, 2010
Sheeeesh, I really don't have time for this today!

GFS makes me nervous for it's depiction of 93L as just a broad ELY wave, as is in same region where it failed to ID Gustav in it's earliest cyclogenesis stage, for about 36 hrs... GFS is a slightly more interested in the next wave behind it - the previously referred to "Trinidad TS" which now takes it near there / lower Windwards over next day or so, then moves NWWD over Hispaniola / S Bahamas into or near S FL by late this weekend, but mostly as a rainy ELY wave or TD... Meanwhile the CMC, is apparently showing both features, with the low over S FL and 93L over the Yucatan by Sunday morning...

And now, the latest 12Z ECMWF today does little with 93L... but has it as mere ELY wave / tropical disturbance with broad low moving toward TX coast by Wed morn June 30... Quite a turnaround, and back to targeting W Gulf for general track motion... Expect to see more wild swings on this feature...

LOL, let the model watching / speculation of impending doom begin in earnest!
Plenty of tropical activity to keep up with... especially when they seem to pop up in "short-fuse" fashion! But generally speaking, as said before we can expect more action from ELY waves lifting toward the Gulf region after this week... along with development potential.

Okay, really outta here...
Later!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
302. DocNDswamp
6:38 PM GMT on June 21, 2010
Good day, Mon June 21st...

Well sort of I guess, but a busy agenda, including discovering a leaky bathroom toilet tank... DANG, one headache issue after another, when does it ever stop?
Yeah.. I know... when we DIE! LOL...

Hiya Shore and Foxx!

LOL Shore,
I just posted mention of that in your blog, will repost the comment here... Yep, no need for the "Bug trademarked" "RUN-FER-THE-HILLS-WE'RE-ALL-GONNA-DIE" frenzy just yet, but I do hear her warming up, clearing the vocal chords in anticipation!

Indeed 92L is gone, but the trailing wave on it's heels to the SE really blew up nice convection overnight and now is the feature to "bear watching", now designated Invest 93L... No rest for the weary! Models all over the place with it, with most frightening guidance last 2 days from the Euro, esp the 0Z cycle today at 240 hrs out end run, which has it as a major hurricane moving into Mobile next week around Wed eve... But that's just the latest shift, as previous cycles showed as a TD sliding across BOC into MX, a marginal TS into Brownsville, then a strong TS / min H into Port Lavaca, now shifted way EWD... LOL, if follows that trend, next may have it into FL pen... Way early to put stock on track, intensity, landfall prospects that far ahead for system yet to develop but with other models (CMC / GFS) showing "something" entering "somewhere" into the Gulf region near the time frame under generally favorable conditions, it appears more likely - this may be last week of this extended spell of calm conditions over the Spill Zone efforts ... Sooner or later, ya know...
God help us...

***

Hey Foxx,
LOL, in all that I forgot to mention the reknowned Tabasco plant and pepper gardens at Avery Island!

Agreed - Fingers crossed, daily prayers, gris gris and voodoo dolls all need be invoked / employed... and especially sensible, timely preparations mostly for what little CONTROL over the situation we have!

Best wishes, friends!
BBL...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
301. Beachfoxx
6:13 PM GMT on June 21, 2010
Hiya Doc,

We are working on plans to visit - hopefully very soon. Need to go to Dallas & we decided to do a driving trip so we could visit some places on our Bucket List.

Hmmm - maybe we should schedule a special visit to Avery Island and try to time it for early Spring next year. Will have to talk w/ hubby and see what his thoughts are. We both want to visit, just got to get our timing right.

Also, one of the oldest, best preserved Buddhas in the USA - Lord Gautama - sits in a reproduction temple there welcoming visitors around a reflection pond... Kinda funny in the low-lying flatlands of S LA to come upon a "mountain" rising 168 ft above all else...
I had no idea! I suppose I should do a google search & learn more - I knew about the Tobasco, but thats about it... Must learn more! : )
As for the You Know Whats - I've got my fingers crossed hoping that Ma Nature will smile down on us and say we have enough to deal with, with the oil & all. No You Know Whats for us... fingers crossed.

If the YKNWs enter the Gulf, well, I don't even want to think about it. There's so much going on, so much we do not know... its like a big gaping wound & no gauze to wrap it with. : (

Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29384
300. shoreacres
6:00 PM GMT on June 21, 2010
Uhhhh... got that dip net handy? It's too early to give 93L the "Full Bug" for sure, but still....
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
299. DocNDswamp
3:36 AM GMT on June 21, 2010
a quick checkback...

Hey Shore,
That's quite a ship, interesting to learn about all the specialty vessels supporting the oil industry... Thanks for the info and links on it, Subsea and Port Isabel... Yes indeed, very skilled automated-welder operators needed for such - knew one for a time, a former Vietnamese refugee, took great pride in his work and was much in demand at the local yards with his meticulous attention...

Closest I've been associated with anything of the marine industry, my partner and I worked on a former supply vessel in '92 being refurbished / refitted here as an offshore sandblasting / painting unit for French company based in Port Gentil, Gabon (the parent company was also involved in exotic timber exports - LOL, I never did get that load of ebony he promised cheap!)...

***

Good evening Pat,
Thanks a bunch, and equally return greeting to hope your Father's Day with the family went well!
Yeah, bittersweet this particular holiday has always been for me, for personal reasons I can't wallow into here... but yep, with the Gulf tragedy all holidays are gonna be tough to enjoy for a bit.

Oh my, sorry to hear 'bout the Portlight friend having a rough go of it... topped off with a nasty sunburn!

So true, a lot of concern with the well's internals... hard to believe it could get worse, but ya know it easily could at any minute... Saying prayers every day for the relief operation's success...

Thanks again bro, as I know that's a sincere offer, but so far so good on my end! Gonna be watching the situation as we deal with the blob as it migrates around... The nightmare that never should have happened... Still hard to fathom...

***

Okay gonna watch True Blood...
G'nite all!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
298. Patrap
9:37 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Happy Father's day Doc.

Its a bittersweet one I know for all of us.

We had a portlight friend in the Barataria Weds doing Balloon Cam Imagery and she was like freaked out a tad.

And very Sunburned poor one.

I just hope we can see some "Hope" soon.

But Im worried about the rogue well casing and the condition of the well itself.

May you find some time to relax today friend.

If we can help down your way in any capacity..,

Just holla in mail friend.

Patrick
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
297. shoreacres
9:30 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Hiya, Doc,

While everybody else has been watching the beaches and the BOP, I've been keeping an eye on vessel traffic and discovered something interesting.

Seven Oceans, a reel-lay vessel belonging to Subsea 7, a pipe-laying outfit, has arrived back at Subsea's spoolbase in Port Isabel from Rio de Janeiro. She was in Port Isabel a couple of months ago and did some work in the Bullwinkle field, and then headed south.



I was looking at the vessel specifications and noticed a couple of things. One is the fact that pipe lay vessels are required to be able to stay on location in harsh weather. Another slightly amusing comment was made about the need for high-caliber welders at the Port Isabel facility.

"They need a few very good automated welding machine operators, and they need very high quality work," says Cornelison. "There's only one chance to do it right. There's no way to repair a leaking crude oil line in 7,000 feet of water." Uh.. right.

Anyway, it's pretty interesting. It may be a standard port call or she may be back for something related to the relief wells. No telling. But this is a great article about the vessel herself - and don't miss clicking to enlarge the photos of the bridge and operations center!

Here's a nice link to Subsea and information about the spoolbase. And here's a photo of the ship - isn't she a beauty? I believe I'll be keeping an eye on her ;)
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
296. DocNDswamp
8:22 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Hiya Foxx!

Yes, trying to keep abreast of things without it all driving me completely over the edge, lol! So hard not to be totally pessimistic after the frustratingly pathetic response effort we've seen, eh?

Oh by all means, visit Avery Island!
Hasn't been any impact there, and not likely until a you-know-what hits later in season, if it does then... In fact, I could use a re-visit to Avery Is - a unique geological formation of a whopping salt dome and diverse natural beauty of ancient live oaks, the large bird rookery and the gardens (including huge stands of timber bamboo!)... Also, one of the oldest, best preserved Buddhas in the USA - Lord Gautama - sits in a reproduction temple there welcoming visitors around a reflection pond... Kinda funny in the low-lying flatlands of S LA to come upon a "mountain" rising 168 ft above all else, and that's just the tip of the peak protruding above - it's size in entirety below ground has been characterized as able to fit all of Mt Everest and nearly half of the Himalayans range in it!
(edit) For peak color effect early April is prolly the nicest when massive azaleas are in bloom (and wx / temps more comfortable!) Otherwise, most of my trips there have been in Summer too.

Also gotta mention on a local note - for all the worrys and concern which remains over our seafood, for right now, I'm still seeing a reasonable supply of clean / safe, fresh-caught product.. although the price has gone up a bit (mostly oysters)... More of Terrebonne was reopened yesterday to both recreational / commercial fishing, largely all except Terrebonne Bay itself... Of course, subject to change...

Cheers!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
295. DocNDswamp
8:00 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Happy Father's Day aftn all, Sun June 20th

(edit) - forgot what the date was today, LOL! And the Juneteenth celebration / observance yesterday! Was a common remembrance among most country folks of the South decades ago, regardless of racial background or blatantly ignorant stereotypes we as a mixed community have been labeled with...

Now ya see, I have bad tendency of just posting here and failing to visit others or... I post a comment or two elsewhere and neglect my blog! Oh well...

Hey Gams,
Guess all we can hope / pray for is a successful relief well operation... and step up the removal / containment ops as much is available - then quadruple it!
Hope you and Poppy (and family) enjoying the Father's Day off!

***

Glad to see the shwrs / tstms more scattered and AWAY from here today... as Houma-Thibodaux area has been pummeled with plenty hvy downpouring rainfall past few days! LOL, I've caught up on that Spring drought thingy, turn the taps off a while so I can dry out! Our location in Gray received near 4 1/2" just the past two days and water is standing everywhere... and strong downburst wind gusts yesterday broke and / or threw older dead limbs all over... Yeah, I needed more work!

(sorta reposting my comment from Shore's blog below)
Well on the bright side, we may not have much of 92L left to be a concern, as persistent shear / dry air entrainment has taken a steady toll ripping it apart as a tropical entity, and now mountainous terrain of it's passage over Greater Antilles... After the 2-3 days of GFS runs playing up the Gulf regeneration possibility - with Saturday's 12Z the last, showing a TD bordering on min TS intensity approaching SW LA coast a week from today - the last 3-4 cycle projections since show little in the way of even an ELY wave rain event (other than some enhancement for S FL mid week)... and a different outlook on upper air pattern evolution, that favors mostly stable ridging overhead pattern continuing for N Gulf region... Hope that continues to be the case... Whew! Was getting concerned might have to set my dip net out over my ditch to catch the oil coming inland on tidal influx it would have caused, lol... Hmmmm, no laughing matter, as prolly will be before it's all over... :(

What does show up is some increasing low-level, but mostly modest ELY flow, and with more ELY waves eventually reaching into the Gulf over time, as Atlantic ridging periodically builds WWD... Other than long-range playing up a Cape Verde system by 1st week July (and some chance to keep watching the W Carib, and maybe a low NE of Bahamas or S of Bermuda), nothing else looks too threatening for our immediate future...
Just keeping an eye on 92L to see the latest downcasting trends continue...

Later!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
294. Beachfoxx
7:22 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Oh, and I had been looking forward to a side trip to Avery Island, LA - never been there, but I suppose we should plan that for another time???
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29384
293. Beachfoxx
7:21 PM GMT on June 20, 2010
Hi Doc -
Hope you are hanging in there and keeping your spirits up. All of us on the Northern Gulf Coast have been in "stress mode" for 60+ days now & the frustration level continues to rise like the summer temps.

Shore, I saw this - great post. In the end - its the lawyers who will get rich and the "small" people will be the ones who pay with blood, sweat & tears.....
Quoting shoreacres:
Hiya, Doc,

Going to be back in mid-afternoon for a more leisurely read of your weather prognostications. I had to laugh at your comment re: research and references. I just mentioned elsewhere this morning that there are times when The Oil Drum's chatroom resembles Doc Master's blog. If I didn't know better, I'd swear some characters are living a double life! LOL

But, if you want really funny, try this on for size. There was something I kept thinking, "I've GOT to tell Doc about that." Can I remember today what it was? Nope. So, I'll wander off and ponder. Maybe the heat'll finish baking my half-baked brain and I'll come up with it.

There's a terrific comment on The Oil Drum's current entry. RetiredL has his finger on a couple of things. (I just discovered we can link to specific comments over there. How cool is that?)
Member Since: July 10, 2005 Posts: 157 Comments: 29384
292. seflagamma
6:29 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
Hi Doc,

Just checking in to say Hello,
there is nothing more I can add for now.

Someone needs to figure out how to
STOP THE DAMN FLOW OF OIL FROM THE OCEAN FLOOR!


Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 299 Comments: 40926
291. DocNDswamp
5:21 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
Hiya Shore,

LOL, some of them ARE on both blogs! Recognized a handle or two...

Ahh yes, we're in bake mode here too whenever the rains dry up, thanks for sharing the HEAT, lol!

Well if ya think that's bad forgetting a thought or two - I dropped in your blog yesterday, enjoyed the read and comments... and forgot to hit "post" on what I'd written before I clicked out (edit: Enjoyed your "instant fog" image, brought a smile of familiarity!)... To quote The Arnoldanator - "I'll be back!"

(edit: Thanks for the TOD link - nail on the head indeed!)

Got some work to deal with in the short term,
BBL...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
290. shoreacres
4:57 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
Hiya, Doc,

Going to be back in mid-afternoon for a more leisurely read of your weather prognostications. I had to laugh at your comment re: research and references. I just mentioned elsewhere this morning that there are times when The Oil Drum's chatroom resembles Doc Master's blog. If I didn't know better, I'd swear some characters are living a double life! LOL

But, if you want really funny, try this on for size. There was something I kept thinking, "I've GOT to tell Doc about that." Can I remember today what it was? Nope. So, I'll wander off and ponder. Maybe the heat'll finish baking my half-baked brain and I'll come up with it.

There's a terrific comment on The Oil Drum's current entry. RetiredL has his finger on a couple of things. (I just discovered we can link to specific comments over there. How cool is that?)
Member Since: October 4, 2004 Posts: 205 Comments: 15288
289. DocNDswamp
4:33 PM GMT on June 18, 2010
G'day Pat,

Yep, making good progress with relief well #1, hope it continues!

Saw ya over on Jeff's blog...
Noted Jeff mentioning much same as I posted here yesterday... LOL, tried to add to the conversation with my obs (#132) on the shear / subtropical jet streak... but I'm apparently invisible or on ignore there... F' 'em... LOL... I should have learned by now than to go there!

Some of them need do a little research and find higher resolution models for reference...

Nope... I don't see any significant shear blowing from SWLY / WLY near and over 92L here, either...
LOL...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
288. Patrap
4:05 PM GMT on June 18, 2010


Status report on the relief wells being drilled to halt the Gulf of Mexico oil spill
Published: Friday, June 18, 2010, 9:06 AM Updated: Friday, June 18, 2010, 9:08 AM


BP is drilling two relief wells, a primary and a backup, in the Gulf of Mexico. The plan is for the primary relief well to intersect with the blown-out Macondo well at about 18,000 feet beneath the water's surface, or 13,000 feet beneath the sea floor, and pump it with mud and cement to shut it. If it fails, the backup well would take over.
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The relief wells are BP's final option to contain or stop the oil escaping from its Macondo well. The oil gusher has persisted since the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded and sank April 20, killing 11 people.

The relief wells start at about a half-mile from the accident and will try to meet the original well at a diagonal.

The first well has now been drilled to "just under" 16,000 feet, BP spokesman Tristan Vanhegan said. The second is at 9,778 feet.

"They're starting to close in on the well," Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen said. "The last thousand feet is a slower process and has to be very exact."
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
287. DocNDswamp
10:00 PM GMT on June 17, 2010
Thu June 17, Day 59...

Seems the only good news read was that the relief well is ahead of expected schedule, could potentially reach target within 3-4 weeks, IF there are no further complications... God speed to 'em as we watch from 1 to 2.5 million gallons added every day (or higher - who knows?)... And some success mentioned with sfc burning operations... burn, baby, burn - I'll take my chances with it going up in smoke than clogging the Gulf waters... Already more than enough to realize fears of a destroyed or severely impacted fishery and habitat... and any TC increasing tides / surge will inundate the coast in layers of oil, it's a near-inevitable reality we face...

As for the raging debate over the DW drilling moratorium, esp here in the heart of oil country that supports so many jobs / businesses, I've had a lot of mixed feelings on it, but I'll toss my two cents worth in saying I support keeping it in place UNTIL THIS MONSTER IS CAPPED! However long or short that takes... They can whine all they want, grandstanding the threat over potential loss of jobs, I think it's a prudent decision for the time being to "pause" and limit deep water operations... for the moment... While it's doubtful another such incident would occur (esp with the healthy, intelligent caution MOST of the industry has shown for the past couple decades here, I'd also like to see some respect for the sheer magnitude of this historic disaster and the long-term consequences as our long-resilient Gulf ecosystem is being torture-tested beyond any wildest imaginations... Sheesh, even if the ban lasted full 6 months or longer, the Gulf remains a lucrative, primary source for exploration with plenty incentives - Big Oil won't leave for long should any do so temporarily... Guess some forgot how long the oil industry depression around the Gulf lasted in the 1980's - most of the decade, not mere months! I say lift the moratorium within a day or so after the gusher is closed off...

***

Hmmmmmm... The tropics deserve our continued attention with two Atlantic prospects ahead for next week (while TS Blas was named today in E Pac)... several runs of the GFS show one of the low latitude wave features in Cen Alt (perhaps current wave near 35-38W?) will develop into a TC by early next week, remain at relatively low lat (10-11N) moving W / WNW, maybe as a tightly wound TS moving over Trinidad by next Wed night / Thu... as today's 12Z run indicated... Lower Windwards will be monitoring this...

And we'll keep an eye on 92L...!
92L may be the new "Joker" this early in the season, as sure do not like projection from today's 12Z GFS... Today, it's nearing Leewards with "LLC" exposed, tstms above it being sheared by upper westerlies, at last sat check... and noted dry air issues - early pre-dawn morn convection to N of still-open-to-S/SW "LLC" / ELY wave showed classic LTO boundaries (arc clouds) racing out WWD as tstms collapsed from dry air ingestion, as was seen with earliest available vis imagery... Several runs have shown 92L remaining a respectable ELY wave moving over Leewards / PR / Hispaniola, tracking further WNW over Lower Bahamas toward S FL, then continuing as a mere rain-enhancing wave as reaches S FL pen / and Gulf over next 8-10 days...

Notable the 12Z GFS indicating the 92L ELY wave with chance for development once in SE Gulf, finally closing off into a tropical cyclone under generally good to marginally conducive conditions by late week as moves WNW / NW over warm loop gyre (and oil blob) and toward / into Louisiana (undetermined intensity then, appears a TD in SE Gulf)... Also shows mid level low circ support (but hints that mid low might not fully close off, and could get caught in faster ELY flow and outrun the sfc-850 mb low, i.e. vertical misalignment)... Upper level 200-300 mb winds during the period show a somewhat broad trof retrograding WWD over / toward SW Gulf, but perhaps with light winds aloft / light shear over the disturbance as corresponding ridge could set up over SE US - how this actually evolves could be key... All this is at the end of the medium range run capabilities and definition, and the 1st cycle showing this much development, so usual caveats for something a 144-180 hrs away...

For reference, this was the 12Z GFS NOMADS Hi Res depiction a week from now, 12Z Thu June 24th of 850 mb Height / Absolute Vorticity... and the 850 mb Isotachs / Wind Field... Not what us N Gulf coasties wanna see!

Since 92L has remained a strong ELY wave, much as has been modeled, moving W / WNW, it would be smart to continue monitoring for future possibilities, as appears this persistent "Joker" could surprise us once more... A few hrs ago, NHC put the yellow highlight circle back up, although with "zero" chance development next 48 hrs... LOL, no way anything could sneak up on the multitudes of attentive WU bloggers! Nope... not writing off 92L yet... but hoping that run was an outlier and I'm wasting my time blogging on it!!!

Later!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794

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