SE LA Winter Observations...

By: DocNDswamp , 8:22 PM GMT on April 08, 2007

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VA Tech tragedy of Mon Apr 16 2007... Join fellow Wunderground bloggers in offering condolences to victims, family members and friends affected...

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Latest W Atlantic Basin AVN / IR Satellite Image

W Atlantic Basin AVN Satellite Image

Sun Apr 8 2007 3:15 PM CDT...
Happy Easter to yas!

Warm Spring greetings all... on this cold Easter weekend! LOL! Along with the snow in TX, lite sleet / wintry mix fell across SE LA Saturday aftn April 7 2007 - our 1st frozen precip to hit the ground (besides hail!) here this Winter season... er, ...I mean Spring! ...and had more sleet mixing in off and on after midnight this Easter morning... LOL, maybe a cooler April will offset the above average warmth most of us had in March... Anyway, many Thanks to all WUnderful friends who stopped by in my absence offering greetings and concern... Yes, I'm still alive and kicking, at last check, LOL... but have been very busy - and remain so... I've kept up with wx and recorded observations, but have lacked the time to blog about it or respond here... Anyway, before summer / tropical season gets underway, had some observations on past winter...

Winter 06-07 - Observations from America's Wetlands...
Here in SE LA, at least in my neck of the swamp - Bayou Cane / Houma, Winter 06-07 averaged out with near normal to below normal temperatures and above average rainfall... as was expected with a weak to moderate El Nino influence... Actually, the temp data I collected indicated we were below normal for 4 straight months, including November and the Meteorological Winter period of Dec - Feb when compared to the NCDC's 1971-2000 30 year average... Not surprisingly, the official data from the LA Office State Climatology for Houma differed due to a number of reasons - location, type of instruments used, and their old traditional, but odd methodology of recording 24 hour data from 7 AM to 7 AM... as is the case with NCDC's / LOSC's station used to represent Houma - HUML1, the LSU Ag Center Sugarcane Research Station, which was relocated a few years back about 10 miles WNW of Houma... The dataset I compiled was obtained by averaging the nearest WeatherBug stations data - saved daily before midnight, as they have no archive feature - and a private station in Gray... (rarely used Houma airport's sparse wx data since only reports from 7 AM to 7 PM daily)... Using the more definitive midnight to midnight period for a given date, the individual lows and highs recorded from those stations were then averaged to minimize instrument or locational variability, then the daily mean temp noted... Given the changes that occurred and issues within the HUML1 station (or LOSC's data accuracy) since the 1971-2000 reference period, I felt comparing the alternative temperature data (ATD) I generated with the 30 year average remains a fair one, while acknowledging expected variability... And certainly there are reliability problems with WeatherBug stations too - instrument data can be inconsistent (failed rain gauges and hygrometers common) and stations are periodically off/on... LOL, the lack of an official NWS standards ASOS in Houma leaves quite a void...

Here's the monthly mean temperature (MT) for the Houma area from the two datasets in comparison to NCDC's MT normal / average -

November: NCDC MT - 62.1 ... HUML1 - 61, 1.1 colder ... ATD - 58.8, 3.3 colder...
December: NCDC MT - 55.4 ... HUML1 - 57, 1.6 warmer ... ATD - 53.9, 1.5 colder...
January: NCDC MT - 53.1 ... HUML1 - 54, .9 warmer ... ATD - 51.9, 1.2 colder...
February: NCDC MT - 56.2 ... HUML1 - 54, 2.2 colder ... ATD - 53.0, 3.2 colder...
March: NCDC MT - 62.7 ... HUML1 - 64.7, 2 warmer ... ATD - 63.6, .9 warmer...

Yes, there are differences... with the most significant being the Dec-Jan mean temps, where there is a full 3 and 2 degree swing respectively that took us from being categorized in a colder than average regime to a warmer one... Of course, the only data that "officially counts" is the HUML1 station reports that the LOSC provides to the NCDC / CPC... LOL, guess this falls under "things that make you go, ...Hmmmmm?"... Perhaps the best representation of the Houma area would be to combine BOTH datasets for the MT and compare to the NCDC averages... Here we go -

November: HUML1 / ATD - 59.9, 2.2 colder...
December: HUML1 / ATD - 55.4, 0 - right on the mean...
January: HUML1 / ATD - 52.9, .2 colder... but average...
February: HUML1 / ATD - 53.5, 2.7 colder...
March: HUML1 / ATD - 64.1, 1.4 warmer...

As depicted in the CPC's Departure from Average Temperature Map, region-wide MT's from SE TX to NW FL corroborate the overall normal / below normal temps this Dec - Feb winter on the N Cen Gulf... and that patch of aqua blue showing -1 to -3 below normal temps could extend over this area from what I observed... Hey, what the heck... it's only a degree or two... no big deal right? ...Right, I hardly felt the difference... except that 1 or 2 degree difference eventually translates into the climatological record.... LOL! Nahh, I'm not suggesting warm-bias conspiracy... just curious... (PS note: Astronomical winter - Dec 21 winter solstice / Mar 21 vernal equinox - was not calculated, although would show warmer period by eliminating cold of early Dec and including above norm temps of March)...

While colder than last winter, the temps of Winter 06-07 balanced out quite well here, as we saw no really brutal cold nor exceptionally above average warmth... but several typical periods of both, with mild interludes... The 2 coldest periods were nearly identical in intensity across the region - occurring in early Dec and mid Feb... Some winter wx highlights were:

* Frosts: Observed 22 frosts - about half which were light, patchy on roofs, the other half were heavy, thick enough to resemble snow cover... 1st frost was on Nov 17, last on Mar 6th... Frosts per month - 7 in Nov... 5 in Dec... 4 in Jan... 4 in Feb... 2 in Mar... With a rough average of 15 frosts per year - varies widely - 22 frosts represent a high number (had 17 last winter)... The most I've recorded were 26 frosts in Winter 95-96 (my recorded daily data go back to 1989... before that, just significant wx events were marked)...

* Freezes: Observed 8 freezes of light to moderate intensity - no hard freezes here - using 31F / under as freeze criteria... 1st freeze was on Dec 1, followed with coldest reading of season on Dec 8th - 25... Freezes per month - Nov: 0, Dec: 4, Jan: 1, Feb: 3, Mar: 0... Number of freezes per season also varies widely - have recorded as few as 4, as many as 22 - but 8-10 likely an average... Notably, having only one in January is below average...

* Rainfall: After a cold and dry start to Dec, warming trend ensued as upper air pattern shift brought a steady SWLY flow aloft / strong subtropical jet stream influence to the region... allowing for an above normal occurrence of heavy rainfall and severe wx events...
- December - Totaled 9.78" on my home gauges, the bulk during the last 11 days of month... a 5.38" surplus over norm of 4.4", made Dec the 2nd wettest month of 2006 behind August (10.67")...
- January - had more of same - cloudy conditions were relentless - with colder air bleeding in from S Rockies by mid-month bringing frz rain / sleet from S TX into Cen LA / MS... and cold rain here... Jan - Totaled 6.67"... a 1.24" surplus over the NCDC avg of 5.43"...
- February - An evolving polar vortex over E Canada, deep troughing over the Cen / E US while ridge built over the West finally brought a more WLY / NWLY upper flow and less hvy rains by mid-month, minimizing the deep tropical fetch from the EPAC and beginning a drier pattern... Feb - totaled 3.98", a decent amt but 6/10 below NCDC avg of 4.59"... And once again, our spring drought period has emerged since late Feb, now into April...

* Significant / Severe wx: The increased frequency of strong subtropical jet stream flow over the S CONUS and periodic northern polar jet troughing / clashing of air masses led to a remarkably active period of severe weather events... that helped bring hvy snows to the S Rockies / S Plains, icing deep into S TX / MX to MO / IL... along with episodes of heavy rains, damaging high winds, hail and deadly tornadoes across the South... Strong upper level energy spawned several potent surface lows over W Gulf / S Plains regions... Since this is getting lengthy and has already been detailed in past blogs / news coverage, will just post a list of dates of significant / severe wx (heavy flooding rains, ice storms, hail, damaging high winds exceeding 40 to 70 mph, and tornadoes) that affected N Gulf and neighboring regions, reflecting above average activity this winter / spring:
Nov 15-16... Nov 29-Dec 1... Dec 20-23... Dec 24-25... Dec 29-30... Jan 4... Jan 14-17... Feb 1-2... Feb 12-13... Feb 24... Feb 28-Mar 2... Mar 13-15... Mar 27... and likely, more to come...


* Snowfall: Oh yeah... almost forgot to mention this one... What? ... Why sure, we had snow here over the Houma area this winter! ...as clearly shown on this saved radar image on Feb 15 2007 (appropriately enough - the date of our all-time record snowfall in 1895, when an amazing 16-18" blanketed the ground!)...


(NEXRAD imagery courtesy Wunderground)

Okay, truth be known - yeah, I wish! ...hardly any of this reached the ground (radar also at 1.45 elevation)... All that snow was up between a few thousand to 12K ft, evaporating on it's way down through a very dry surface layer, LOL... although got a couple 2nd hand reports of brief snow flurries spotted in Morgan City / Franklin, though nothing officially reported... It certainly was cold enough to support snow with local temps hovering between 28 - 31 that morning... For the season, guess I'm surprised we did not get a measurable snowfall given the upper pattern and abundant moisture supply... Oh well, maybe next year! ...And yet, this Easter weekend in April - TX, LA and parts of the N Gulf coast have had snow / sleet / wintry mix with record-setting late season arctic-type blast... LOL!!!

*******

El Nio enhances mid-winter precip from S Rockies to N Gulf...

Reviewing water vapor satellite imagery on a broad scale, it's evident what some of the factors influencing weather from mid-December thru January were, including the light-moderate El Nio... which targeted the S Rockies to N Gulf... as seen in this composite of images...


(Imagery courtesy NOAA GIBBS)

While the main polar jet stream generally remained zonal across Cen Canada, a persistent recurrence of a split-flow off the main polar jet with mid-upper level lows descending from the Pacific Coast into Baja / Old Mexico, tapping into long fetch of mid-up level moisture from the tropical EPAC (and allowing a cold pool of modified arctic or polar airmass to establish across the Great Basin / intermountain West)... To the east - a very broad and strong mid-level W Atlantic ridge was established, centered over the Caribbean... That bulging ridge's warming influence with dry, subsiding air was felt over a wide area, particularly contributing to the overall warm / dry conditions over FL... and also extended westward into the EPAC, focusing the SWLY mid-upper flow as it converged with Pacific troughing... with an accelerating subtropical jet forming between the features... Interestingly, when we examine that SWLY moisture fetch in the EPAC, it appears a series of mid-upper level troughs kept developing and dropping SWD / equator-ward, east of Hawaii into the area roughly bounded by 5N - 20N / 120W - 150W where bulk of the moisture accumulated, just above a large portion of the Nio 3.4 Region... then streamed NEWD into the repeating procession of cut-off ULL's over Baja / Mexico... All of these features ARE fairly typical of winter patterns, but both the amplified W Atlantic / Caribbean ridging and stronger subtropical jet could be attributes of an ENSO warm phase...


(Reynolds / NCEP EPAC SST Anomaly graphics courtesy JPL NASA)

Also, when we look at EPAC SST anomalies during that time frame - while El Nio was near it's +1.1C peak average - notice that equally anomalous colder pool over the area above the Nio 3.4 region... and how it correlates with the tropical moisture feed seen in the imagery... as warm air is advected pole-ward from the equator... When viewing the ENSO progression from Dec into March as it rapidly transitioned from warm phase toward cooler La Nia, it appears oceanic circulation continues to drive cooler SST's into the central ENSO region, and migrating EWD to the Nio 1+2 region as last warm burst near the Galapagos Is. subsides...




As February progressed, with the trend towards La Nia, the upper air pattern shifted as the Caribbean ridging weakened, deep E Pacific troughing into the tropics became less pronounced / infrequent and strong polar troughing set up over E Canada and E 2/3 CONUS as warm ridge built over the West... LOL, I'm still pondering which was cause... and effect... but - as always with wx - an interesting evolution to watch and try to learn from.


Despite the unseasonable chill, Happy Easter holiday everybody!

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182. palmettobug53
5:37 PM GMT on May 03, 2007
Hey, Doc! Do some of that gris-gris that you do so well and see if you can call down some rain for us this weekend! We're at incipient drought stage.

Hope you have a great day!
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 244 Comments: 25867
181. bdoucet
5:23 PM GMT on May 03, 2007
Pretty impressive line of storms that came through Doc. Thought I was in the middle of a Tropical Storm the way the winds were blowing. Everytime one of these storms come through the car accidents start on I-10. From what I am reading tonight should really be interesting.
180. DocNDswamp
4:25 PM GMT on May 03, 2007
Hiya Folks, great Thursday to yas...

Sorry haven't been on much last few... quite busy... will try get new entry up in a few...

Ally, hoping some of this approaching reaches ya by weekend...

Hey Rays...thanks for all the greetings! ...Yes, appears wetter times ahead this month for the South, incl FL...

Hiya Finn! Glad ya got the shwr... more coming in near future...

Hey BD... take cover, m'friend! Very hvy T-storm moving in on ya... Severe T-storm warnings out now for your area for possible damaging winds, hail! ...This 1st round looks like will miss me... more will develop later today / tonight / tomorrow... more breaking out in TX...

Flood Watch for SE LA today thru Friday aftn... GFS hinted last couple days of possible hvy rain event across SE LA, last run or so backed off a bit... but if upper level divergence takes shape as could be indicated, we'll need to keep up with developments... 2nd weekend start of JazzFest could still be stormy tomorrow...

Back with more in a bit...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4852
179. bdoucet
3:07 PM GMT on May 03, 2007
Hey Doc,
Whats the chances of things getting a little bumpy around here tonight? Looking at some pretty good rain coming our way right now on the radar.
178. Raysfan70
11:04 AM GMT on May 03, 2007
Doc send some rain to Florida Please.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
177. Raysfan70
9:37 AM GMT on May 03, 2007
{{Doc}}
Myspace Layouts

Make it a Great Day! :-)
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
176. LakeWorthFinn
5:17 AM GMT on May 03, 2007
Hiya Doc, we got 15 min. of light rain here just a while ago, felt sooo good!
Have a good night!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 68 Comments: 7523
175. Raysfan70
9:49 AM GMT on May 01, 2007
Good Morning {{Doc}}!
myspace layouts, myspace codes, glitter graphics
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174. Raysfan70
10:15 AM GMT on April 30, 2007
Good Morning {{Doc}}!
Myspace Layouts


Time to get some Gris Gris Ready.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
173. AllyBama
3:04 AM GMT on April 30, 2007
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{[Doc}}...what can you do about getting us some rain?..lol..but I do love this weather!
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172. DocNDswamp
3:33 PM GMT on April 29, 2007
LOL Pat, I prescribe a regular dose of it weekly!
Enjoy the day, brother!

Hey Bug! Same to ya... About to head outside, LOL I might hafta catch the 2nd viewing of our favorite mobsters tonight... as likely will be a bit late getting back...

Oooo, y'all heard that? ...yeah, thats what I thought too... Big fish slashing over yonder by that log... calling me, I believe...

;-)
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4852
171. palmettobug53
3:23 PM GMT on April 29, 2007
Morning, Doc! Hope your Sunday is a good one!
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 244 Comments: 25867
170. Patrap
3:18 PM GMT on April 29, 2007
Fishing good medicine Doc.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131439
169. DocNDswamp
3:14 PM GMT on April 29, 2007

Good weekend to yas...
Desert weather continues here... cool overnight, but reaching well into the 80's in the day... Warmest temp yet this year on Saturday as high locally was 87 - 89...

Hi BD!
Glad ya got that rain the other nite, without problems... LOL on that topic suggestion! My list of favorite / productive freshwater fishing holes is a lot shorter today than was in late 70's into early 90's! ...and even on best of days, I go with reduced expectations... Thank God, I had the pleasure of experiencing our SE LA fishery when it was truly "teeming with fish", and not just the shadow of itself that most places are now... Hmmmm, guess I could write about it, but that would quickly turn into a negative rant on human impacts / exploitation and environmental destruction of the ecosystems I've seen first-hand in past 30 years... More on recent fishing in a minute...

Hey Rays!
Okay, I did sound a bit like ric there with that chauvinistic man to man sympathizing, eh? ... healing vibes continue!

Whazzup SJ!
Always good to see ya... Hope ya enjoying the pleasant weekend... (and weren't Friday nite's 0Z GFS long range runs depicting early trop disturbances interesting?)

Hiya Bug!
Yep, nice wx alright, but looks the same from my house to yours - too dry... probably will continue well into May, with most rain staying west of me and north of both of us until near mid-month... Oh well, great weekend to ya!

*******

Cool / mild nights, warm / hot dry days of low humidity continue here - perfect for JazzFest and other outdoor activities... Did someone mention fishing? ...Fri was perfect with light, variable winds, so off I went... Problem was made a poor choice of location - Lake Verret... I'd gotten a good report from a trusted friend who had a fine catch there last weekend, but had mentioned only caught fish in small area and that "the water didn't look right in most of the lake"... Understatement! ...and can guarantee it's gotten worse since then... Heavy algal bloom has turned water a brilliant emerald green as if someone dumped millions of gallons of green paint or dye, encompassing most of the system, except a few canals... With nutrient-rich waters, this happens each year (usually in Apr / May here) with WT's warming into low-mid 70's along with calming winds / abundant spring sunshine and lasts for about 2 weeks... This year, the profuse growth of blue-green algae (cyanobacteria) is especially heavy there... the emerald-dyed water has become so thick and cloudy it only has about 3-6" visibility, limiting or shutting out sunlight below the surface... And I should draw a distinction between this blue-green algae and others... Many types of algae are common and beneficial, produce oxygen and provide food for many fish and other organisms... typified by normal green stained coloration and these "bloom" off and on, esp in warmer months, noticeable in that water vis becomes more cloudy or degree of stained color changes... The nasty blue-green algae event usually occurs once a year on our shallow big lakes in SE LA...

Heavy blue-green algal blooms can release harmful toxins and the decomposition process depletes oxygen content, often causing fish kills if prolonged... and forces fish to relocate from their normal habitat... LOL, I actually had fish jumping in the boat - with a few of 'em hitting me! - when traveling across, as large gizzard shad by the tens of thousands were near the surface and spooked by boat traffic... Usually a bottom dweller, the shad were likely near surface seeking sufficient oxygen where wind turnover helps aerate the water... Also, the byproduct of toxic aerosol irritants being released are noted in a fowl, bitter smell and by the time I left that nite, my eyes were burning and nose running... While not quite the threat as red tide in a coastal marine environment, I certainly would caution anyone against swimming, skiing / jetskiing in such conditions right now... or whenever similar conditions break out, as a return to normal typically occurs from the bloom peak within a week or two...

Funny coincidence, had a chat with that same friend in the recent past about such an algal bloom and how it affects our game fishes' migration patterns through spring (and often, their forage fish)... as I'd mentioned that if bad enough, those fish - esp the larger adults - that had left spawning areas in canals and moved into the main lake for the rest of spring / summer, would briefly return or stay in the canals a little longer if water quality remained more optimal... or fish staying in the algae-fied lake would go in dormant mode until improves... LOL, after a lot of unproductive fishing and running around this expansive complex of interconnected lakes / canals / bayous, I found myself late aftn in a canal reasonably away from the tainted lake and still holding normal water... a good winter sanctuary / spring spawning location where the action slows as fish migrate out... But sure enough, there they were! ...Managed to catch 14 nice sacs all 11"-13" size, saving an otherwise useless trip...

Or to quote 2003 Bassmaster's Classic Champion Michael Iaconelli - Never Give Up!!! ...LOL... hard to keep that attitude (esp in SE LA), but often rewarding when ya do!


And with that, might hafta head out somewhere today...
Enjoy your Sunday, folks!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4852
168. Raysfan70
10:52 AM GMT on April 29, 2007
{{Doc}}
myspace layouts, myspace codes, glitter graphics
Have a Splendid Sunday!. :-)
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
167. palmettobug53
1:32 PM GMT on April 28, 2007
Could have sworn I'd stopped by here in the last day or two. Probably did, but got sidetracked before I could post. I am easily distracted, you know! LOL

That front petered out before it got to us. We were supposed to get some showers and a possible T-storm or two yesterday afternoon/evening. Wound up with nada. And we could use it, too.

Hope you have a great Saturday!
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 244 Comments: 25867
166. StormJunkie
1:21 PM GMT on April 28, 2007
Good to see you Doc ☺

Have a great day.
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165. bdoucet
1:17 PM GMT on April 28, 2007
Hey Doc I heard you were looking for topics to blog about. How about Doc's favorite Sac-a-Lait holes this time of year....lol.
164. Raysfan70
10:19 AM GMT on April 28, 2007
163. bdoucet
10:15 PM GMT on April 27, 2007
Hey Doc,
Yeah we got probably about 3 inches but it was so dry around here had very little ponding the next morning. Was a little bumpy though, @ midnight had a brief tornado warning from I understand but didnt develop. I am not disapointed about that.
162. DocNDswamp
1:19 PM GMT on April 27, 2007
LOL (((Rays)))...
Excellent words of inspiration, high fives on that! Hope ya have a fine Friday... and that Wobbie is continuing to recover from your surgery! ...;-)

Well, well, well, ...looks like I picked a bad time to lurk thru the blogs last nite... tsk, tsk... Appears this social experiment not working very well with the humans... and you people are NOT very convincing I should change my hermit ways... Therefore, I shall remain in limited contact to avoid infection from the disorder, ...blissful in my non-social life free from the petty drama / trauma...

In local wx news (sorry, my main interest in being here)... Another very nice late spring day in da swamplands... Sunny, with low humidity... 57 low, lite NW to calm winds as high settles overhead today... with highs in low 80's... some cirrus likely to stream in later today from the west... reinforcing short wave to pass late tomorrow - really doubt will see any significant rain here, just a brief thickening of da clouds and incr NWLY breeze - continued fine wx Sun, remaining drier than many of us would like thru most of next week...

As for me... I hear fish calling... I'll be back when I overdose from the serenity of what mankind has left remaining of the outdoors...

Peace all... if ya can stand it...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4852
161. Raysfan70
10:47 AM GMT on April 27, 2007
{{Doc}}


Life is short!

Break the rules!

Forgive quickly!

Kiss slowly!

Love truly, Laugh uncontrollably..

And never regret anything that made you smile.

....have a GREAT Day!!!
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
160. DocNDswamp
5:20 PM GMT on April 26, 2007
Wow... Thursday already?

G'day Rays! ...now that's a "hearty" cup of java, merci beaucoup! ...rain for Florida peninsula, hmmmmm... a very slim chance for iso / w scat into Saturday, maybe... it's fast becoming the "new desert Southeast", sad to say... until seabreeze / daytime heating kicks in, or tropical disturbance gets cranking... same applies here in extreme SE LA - other than the wet El Nio Dec / Jan pattern which helped, drought tendencies rule...

Hiya Cuda! ...Line of frontal shwrs / T-storms heading at ya... you're right, as was expected not super impressive the farther east it goes, although a handful of strong T-storms embedded... so I wouldn't ignore 'em either... usual, routine caution advised...

Oh, LOL! - I'm still holding out on this winter thing along with our podnuh LRandyB... his blog remains titled "Gulf Coast Winter Weather"! ...;-) ...Sheesh, can't really decide what to blog about, as lot of what interests me is of no interest to the majority, esp local stuff or community concerns like the rant I mentioned... or wx issues / details that are either too technical, or not technical enough (LOL, my own limitations)... Watching / speculating on the tropics? ...not much to add to what's already been said by others at this point, other than keep watching the SW Caribbean / EPAC for early activity next couple weeks and signs of what Atlantic ridging / troughing patterns try to set up (notice the pseudo-Bermuda high trend already)... Dunno...

Well, locally the rain I got overnight was typical situation - hvy rains of 4-6" from between Laf to BR, dried up as approached my area, with just a few decent but iso amts over 1 inch - only .47" here... redeveloped to my east... After that flurry of activity near midnight, NWS put all of us from SE LA to Mobile under tornado watch, which seemed a "cover-our-butts" kinda call... Saw no serious reports nearby... LOL, the WU NEXRAD storm totals illustrates this all-too-familiar pattern -


(Graphics and imagery provided by ImageShack)

LOL, told y'all it would fizzle on me! ...Outside of when a tropical cyclone passes, that image looks like many of the last decade - rains itself out to my west / redevelops to my east... Anyway, lower humidity and cooler overnight temps (up 50's-low 60's) and dry sunny skies (low 80's) will make for nice weekend, esp those going to opening of JazzFest in N'awlins... weak short wave passing late Fri / early Sat doesn't promise much in the way of additional rain... dry NWLY upper flow setting up, with upper ridging in place through most of next week... Next tease of rain probably 8 days away, unless daytime heating finds some moisture to work with - hard to do when places have nothing to evaporate, as is case in most of the SE... Appears my April 07 total will be a mere 2.93"... Hmmmm, at least no forest fires here... yet...

BBL...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4852
159. cudasistah
12:00 PM GMT on April 26, 2007
Good morning! Either, or both ;-) Think they should be in two different installments though. Hype makes one speculate even more here, the rant needs to be voiced. Will watch for them. Getting a sprinkle or two here this morning. Not looking for much more.
158. Raysfan70
11:20 AM GMT on April 26, 2007
{{Doc}}


Have a Great Thursday! :-)

Send some rain Please.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
157. DocNDswamp
5:18 AM GMT on April 26, 2007
Ah ha, visitors... LOL...

Well, that pre-frontal line that had stalled and appeared fizzling it's tail... has come alive! Energy with front that was racing across from NW LA has caught up with it and T-storms on the increase... Numerous warnings have popped up last hr or so, with tornado warnings (esp strong cell S and E Baton Rouge and Tangipahoa / northshore), urban stream flood warnings between Lafayette and BR... severe T-storms with damaging winds and hail possible next several hrs across portions of SE LA... Stay alert LA...

BD - You must have got a substantial amt rain with that training... along with my buddy in Breaux Bridge... doppler showed 4-6" in spots... Hope all is okay.

Hey '03, glad to hear from ya! ...Man, wasn't that an extraordinary supercell? And that far south, at this point in time... Gets my vote for most impressive yet of season! ...for now, LOL.

Hello Horn! Good to see ya and made it thru those storms safely... Sure it was rockin' there early Wed... LOL, maybe my turn next few...

ROTFLMAO Cuda!!! ...Nahh, say it ain't so! ...jist when I was planning another frost before we hafta hit 90's every day and watch the tropics... Okay - which one of the 2 subjects I mentioned to ya? ...Da Hype... or Rant? ...LOL.

Alright, gotta check that radar... see if rain really is in my near future... Grrrrrr, just when needed sleep the most...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4852
156. cudasistah
3:44 AM GMT on April 26, 2007
Hiyas Doc! This pains me to inform you but (you know I really love it), no matter how hard you try to hold on to him...old man winter is gone until next year. Time for some new stuff from your bag o'tricks me friend! Nice image btw.
155. hornfan
2:46 AM GMT on April 26, 2007
Hey Doc - haven't been by in awhile and just want to say "hey". Hope that the world is well with you.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 7902
154. weatherguy03
2:46 AM GMT on April 26, 2007
Great work Doc!!! That was an amazing storm. Of course my internet and cable were out last night so I missed it! Thanks for the analysis and picture.
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
153. bdoucet
2:43 AM GMT on April 26, 2007
Yeah its getting a little bumpy here. Looks like they keep blowing up to the southwest @ St Martin.
152. DocNDswamp
1:28 AM GMT on April 26, 2007
(reposted from Dr Jeff's blog)

Fellow weather enthusiasts might find this visible satellite view of that MX / S TX supercell interesting... Obtained imagery from Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (only maintain a 24 hr archive), cropped and adjusted color / contrast in Photoshop, otherwise as original...



Wow, what a monster! ... This rogue cell was another classic "right-mover", tracking more due east than NNE of storms along the previous squall line... (last night's GFS 0Z view of atmospheric levels from initiation period shows the evolving dynamics well and the secondary low pressure area it formed within)... In the sat imagery it almost appears one can see the vortex, although that eye-like center may not be in reality... Condolences to those who lost lives / property there from this historic storm... With all the sparsely populated areas nearby, sad this one found a target... As the MCS continued into San Antonio after midnight this morning, copied barometric pressure data from numerous stations there, indicating a rapid BP spike range of .16" to .20" (inHg) / 5.42 mb to 6.77 mb (i.e. at KSAT, jumped from 29.79" to 29.95") within 30 minutes from powerful gust front / downdrafts... with sharpest jump of near 4 mb occurring in under 10 minutes... BP then fell back under the broader synoptic low pressure of the storm system as transient effects of MCS's mesohigh abated... The phenomena can be viewed from San Antonio airport's charts (KSAT)...

Amazing number of deadly severe storms we've seen this winter / spring...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4852
151. DocNDswamp
1:21 AM GMT on April 26, 2007
Hey, fine Wednesday eve to yas!

LOL Rays! ...hmmmm, just checked my financial situation... guess I may hafta keep hiding!

Hiya BD... I see those shwrs / T-storms moving in on ya, hope just beneficial rain... chance of hail / wind gusts appear the worse for SE LA at this point, but stronger storms would be closer to you and into MS...

Hey Art, thanks a bunch! ...Ya know, I'm watching this approach and dang if it doesn't appear the tail end is trying to fizzle out on me... LOL, hope I get some rain! ... Winds from surface and aloft are in sync (unidirectional) from SW, so severe threat should be minimized a bit... Of course, I know better than turn my back on it, LOL...

Well, the storm seems to be losing it's punch a bit as it treks EWD, but wasn't the case late aftn / evening / nite across S TX... with that supercell exploding outta nowhere in Mexico, SW of Del Rio / Lake Amistad... roaring off to the east spawning a powerful tornado causing 10 deaths, scores injured in Piedras Negras, MX and Eagle Pass, TX... along with hail up to 2.75" dia and hvy rainfall across S TX... Found an interesting image of that supercell that I shared on Dr Jeff's blog a little while ago, as it tied in with his entry covering the event... What the hey, I'll repost here in a sec...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4852
150. bigtrucker
10:36 PM GMT on April 25, 2007
Hi Doc
Keep an eye on the western sky!!!! I hope all the severe stuff stays away. Wishing you the best, Art
Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 80 Comments: 6119
149. bdoucet
2:41 PM GMT on April 25, 2007
Het Doc, looks like the Mesoscale has shifted the severe weather threat a little more into south Louisiana. Looked at it yesterday and it was more north. Semms like we might be in for a few bumps this evening and tonight.
148. Raysfan70
10:49 AM GMT on April 25, 2007
Good Morning {{Doc}}!
myspace layouts, myspace codes, glitter graphics
:-)

Wanna Pay Me off?
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
147. DocNDswamp
4:50 AM GMT on April 25, 2007
Late Tue eve greetings all!

Bug, should be an interesting conclusion to the series... I'm sure we'll be surprised, and yeah, gonna miss all the "whackings", LOL...

Hiya {{{Redhead}}}! Thanks, hope all is well with ya!

{{{Rays}}}, keep that recovery on the fast track! ...Uh oh, ya musta saw my message... the stories people tell on anesthetics... LOL...

Hey Pat, thanks for dat info! ...man, we'll never know how many actually died... Sad that relatives won't claim the deceased, probably can't afford to...

Hi {{{OGal}}}! Thanks for the greeting, hope some rain makes it that way soon... sooner... soonest! ...and special wishes for Murphy to respond positively to his chemo-treatment!

Hey BD!
Awww man, I know that was a disappointment for ya... And yeah, the winds did pick up a lil more than earlier thought, although seas were in that 2-3, up to 4 ft range - seemed doable if boat was large enough to do it safely... It was a tough call to make, even on Fri aftn as we all knew winds would increase some over the weekend... and ya know the deal - gotta respect the Gulf, so don't go too hard on ya podnuh! Yep, plenty of time left to git 'em!

Well, watching this system approach here by tomorrow... question remains how much rain we'll see here and EWD where it's really needed - desperately in SE GA! ... and whether severe wx stays N or any develops nearby... SPC keeping us in slight risk category, high risk across E TX tonite / early Wed... Certainly a lot of hvy rains from S TX thru the Midwest this evening... Intensity predicted to weaken as shifts across South... We shall see...

Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4852
146. bdoucet
7:22 PM GMT on April 24, 2007
Hey Doc,
Well I didnt have to worry about the sea's this weekend. I was all packed and ready to leave at noon friday and when I couldnt get in touch with the guy till 3 pm I kinda figured what was coming. Yep!! The old back out at the last minute deal. Said the sea's were too ruff, I cant say on here what I called him but it was something that people sometimes call cats...lol. The smoke that was probably observed over the gulf was probably coming from my ears. O well, we still got the rest of the season.
145. OGal
11:23 AM GMT on April 24, 2007
Good Day Graphics

Good Morning Doc, stay safe during this next round of storms. At least you guys seem to get rain. Pretty soon Florida will just be totally dried up and will just blow away. Can't you get us some rain (:o)
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 72 Comments: 19224
144. Patrap
11:20 AM GMT on April 24, 2007
Memorial envisioned in shape of Katrina
Plans call for a place to meditate and tombs for unclaimed victims
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
By John Pope

To provide a somber, dignified resting place for Hurricane Katrina's 100 unclaimed dead, Orleans Parish Coroner Frank Minyard wants to establish a memorial built around a model of the monster storm.

At the point where the hurricane's eye would be, Minyard said he hopes to erect a sculpture depicting angels.

"It'll be a place for people to come and think about their loved ones," he said.






Although 70 of the 100 unclaimed victims already have been identified, their bodies have not been claimed because "some families we can't find, and some families don't want to pick them up," Minyard said. "I think these Katrina victims deserve a better fate."

Tests are under way to determine the identities of the other 30, he said.

Katrina's death toll in Louisiana stands at 1,464, according to the state Department of Health and Hospitals.

The memorial, which Minyard is to discuss today at a news conference, is to be in the Charity Hospital Cemetery at the head of Canal Street, near City Park Avenue.

There is no timetable for the project because money must be raised to pay for it. According to the memorial's Web site, www.neworleanskatrinamemorial.org, construction will cost at least $1.5 million in tax-deductible donations, and more money will be required for maintenance of the site.

Louisiana State University owns the site because it runs the Charity system. The LSU Board of Supervisors endorsed the project, system spokesman Charles Zewe said, but it required Minyard to ensure that:

-- No bodies already buried in the graveyard will be disturbed. -- Financing for design and construction is in place.

-- Money will be available to pay for upkeep.

"We want to know that the state's taxpayers aren't going to be hit for this," Zewe said. "We're very supportive. We just have to make sure that it's done properly."






The memorial, which will be about 200 feet wide, will consist of six block-like mausoleums built around the artistic representation of Katrina. According to the Web site, the concept came from Dr. Jeffrey Rouse, a psychiatrist in Minyard's office, to suggest a labyrinth where visitors can meditate.

It was designed by Matthews International Corp., a Pittsburgh firm that builds memorials and mausoleums.

Each block is designed to hold 21 coffins, making a total of 126 spaces, Minyard said.

While Minyard doesn't have that many unclaimed bodies, he said the extra spots probably will be used because people are finding bodies as they return to their homes for the first time since the August 2005 storm.

"I have the feeling we're going to have more remains," he said.

Until a final resting place for these bodies is available, they are in "military-style coffins" in a Poydras Street warehouse, Minyard said, adding, "They're not deteriorating anymore."

Minyard is the president of the board of directors of the Katrina Memorial Corp., the not-for-profit corporation formed to raise money for the memorial and build it.

He said he hasn't decided whether the names of the people in the memorial will be made public there, but he said relatives of people who perished in the storm would be welcome to erect tablets honoring them.

The site would be a "fitting memorial," Zewe said. "It's just sad that, 19 months after Katrina, there are still people unidentified or unclaimed."
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 431 Comments: 131439
143. Raysfan70
11:09 AM GMT on April 24, 2007
Good Morning {{Doc}}!
Have a Great Day. :-)



Now I wonder what names some of you will come up with. And how many will run and hide till all is forgotten. :-)
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
142. Redhead
5:24 AM GMT on April 24, 2007


Have a great Tuesday, {{{{Doc}}}}!
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 7042
141. palmettobug53
1:13 AM GMT on April 24, 2007
Oh, yeah.... what are we going to do with ourselves on Sunday nights with no more Sopranos to watch?

I thought for sure Tony was going to send Paulie to sleep with Pussy and the fishes last night! He came very, very close, didn't he? And Uncle June?! Running his poker game and racket in the nut house?

Wonder how the series is going to wind up? I think the Feds will probably win out.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 244 Comments: 25867
140. DocNDswamp
4:33 PM GMT on April 23, 2007
Hiya Folks... and great post-Earth Day Monday greetings to ya! ...(and how generous of us humans to set aside one day in it's honor, LOL! ...now git back to work... there's trees to cut down and concrete to pour! ...you're holding up... progress!) ...sheeeesh.

Rapid recovery greetings to ya {{{Rays}}}!!! ...Hey, LOL on the wheelchair part... I bet ya had to leave out the hospital door via one, even if wasn't needed... seems to be the policy here... Healing vibes continue for ya!

Hey {{{Bug}}}! ...Hope ya had an excellent family git-together yesterday...;-) Oh yes, am familiar with McManus... having read his zany humor in my outdoor / fishing mags for years... What a nut, eh? ... Yeah, our kinda people... LOL!

Well, I celebrated Earth Day by cleaning some of my part of it - my yard, LOL... and watched a few of the wistful, utopian dreams of what life on earth should be on TV...well, at least till the Sopranos / Entourage came on... Weatherwise, our lovely low humidity stretch has come to an end as da Gulf muggies returned last 24 hrs, bringing the chance of being teased by a brief shower next couple days... (dang, I was really getting use to mid-50's lows and up 70's highs with low humidity - a warmer, more humid 67 this morning)... maybe a better chance Wed / Fri as a strong storm system takes shape - all signs of another serious severe wx week ahead, which will just continue / increase the threat across the Southern Plains, TX / OK... and shift EWD as week goes on... Lot of us need rain from E LA across the South, none more so than AL / GA / FL, where deficits are already at 5-10"+ for the year... Locally, running about 4" below avg, as thru April should have 19.44" but thanks to dry March / April so far have 15.59" registered on my gauges... Should see some relief coming with slow moving system, and hopefully S FL will get in on the act by Fri / Sat from combination of frontal system and daytime heating / moist SELY flow around pseudo-Bermuda high setting up (summer preview?) in W Atlantic...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4852
139. palmettobug53
2:47 PM GMT on April 23, 2007
Good morning, Doc! Reading about BigT and opening day made me think of Patrick McManus describing how a kid prepares for opening day. You have GOT to get your hands on his books, Doc. They're right up your alley. You will HOWL! He puts me in stitches.

Patrick McManus

Maybe you could even join the Rancid Crabtree Fly-Fishing and Filosophical Society.

Here's a few of Rancid's quotes:

"Ah ain't never been lost in the woods, no sir. But Ah been places where Ah had a mighty strong hankerin' to git to where Ah wasn't."

"Don't never take baths. Soap and water will eat holes in your protective crust and allow the jarms to git in."

"If a man ain't fishin' or huntin', he's fritterin' away his life, with maybe a couple exceptions."

"The two best times to go fishin' is when it's rainin' and when it ain't."

"Ah was born retired but Ah actually enjoy a bit of work from time to time, if it ain't too dull. Ah hear of a feller workin' at somethin' halfway entertainin', why Ah'll hop right up and go watch him do it."
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 244 Comments: 25867
138. Raysfan70
2:05 PM GMT on April 23, 2007
{{Doc}}


Have a Marvelous Monday!

Home and Feeling as Good as I can be right now.
Got out early on Sat. Morning {of course by wheelchair) Enjoyed the warmth of the sun on my face.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
137. DocNDswamp
4:01 AM GMT on April 22, 2007
Heya BT!!!
Man, it's great to hear from ya... (and I do apologize I haven't stopped by ya in a while)... That Nor'easter musta been a trip for you guys - I saved a bunch of data from it in a separate file - so I know ya got plenty water... like, too much! Sorry to hear the rippin' current flow messed ya up... That's a drag for opening day, hope it settles for ya soon... Yep, nothing like fresh caught fish... LOL, just got back from my Mom's place - cooked those sac-a-lait I'd caught recently... Yummm! ...Good luck on those trout, BT!

Worked outside this aftn... Beautiful sunny wx, relatively low humidity and comfy temps (55-78)... 1st thing I noticed was hazy smoke and smell of fire all around, then remembered where it musta come from - wildfires burning in SE Georgia, carried across on ENE winds... read it's burned around 45,000 acres... Yep, the SE desperately needs rain!

Cold brewski time...
BBL...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4852
136. bigtrucker
10:19 PM GMT on April 21, 2007
Hi doc hope you and all are doing well. Wacky New England weather is in full swing. From a powerful Nor'Easter last weekend, to nice springlike weather. gotta get the fishing gear straightened out and do some trout fishing.
I fill my freezer every season and we always have a fish fry when we return. The recent flooding put a damper on opening day (today), I went by my spots and the water is flowing way too fast.
Member Since: January 9, 2006 Posts: 80 Comments: 6119
135. DocNDswamp
8:49 PM GMT on April 21, 2007
Hey folks, great Saturday to ya...

Wx last few days has remained status quo in SE LA / N Gulf region - cool / mild nights with warm days (mid-up 50's to up 70's / low 80's here)... relatively low / mod humidity... abundant sunshine and very dry with zero chance rain... typical April wx, although temps are bound to avg below norm, despite going slightly above as we end the month... High pressure ridging throughout the atmospheric column - esp mid-upper levels centered on S Cen CONUS - firmly in control well into mid next week... Viewing GFS 500 mb charts, pattern may shift enough to allow chance precip late Wed / Thu and again Sat / Sun if mid-level ridge translates SEWD, nudged by trofs' progression as advertised... still, I would expect best chances will stay N of here which could help alleviate drought situation across MS / AL / GA... S FL - looks like you'll hafta wait on seabreeze effect... Remain at 2.46" Apr precip here, with deficit accumulating across region since last month...

Was thinking about BD (bdoucet) and his trip outta Grand Isle today to catch snappers, as he'd asked my opinion on expected conditions... LOL, well hope he didn't cuss me too bad, as ELY winds have run a little higher (10-18) than I guessed on Tuesday (8-15)... although seas are in 2-4 ft neighborhood... Plenty doable for springtime in an adequate sized boat... LOL, certainly T-storms weren't an issue as only Special Marine advisory was from Mobile office indicating possible smoke on the water from fires in GA... Alright, fresh smoked snapper, LOL!
Hope ya got into 'em, BD!

Will keep watching EPAC late next weekend into beginning May as several GFS runs have hinted possible sfc low developing west of Panama / Costa Rica... SST's have warmed typically there (29-30C), ITCZ activity has been on the rise and upper level conditions could be marginally favorable for our 1st trop depression, although at nearly 10+ days out, just something to watch for... EPAC tropical season officially begins May 15...

May try get new entry up before long, as LOL, winter reminiscing is over with... Not sure of the topic yet...

Later...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4852
134. Raysfan70
10:05 AM GMT on April 19, 2007
{{Doc}}



Have a Great Thursday! :-)

Got some rain last night. ABout a good hours worth. A little is better then nothing.

The shaking of the hips worked again.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
133. DocNDswamp
5:39 AM GMT on April 19, 2007
Good Wednesday evening / Thursday morning all...

{{{Rays}}}, LOL on that, ...er, sexy (?) greeting this morn! ...WoooHooo, shake it sweetie!

Hey {{Redhead}}}! ...Thanks, great to hear from ya... big bear hugs back atcha!

Well, I hafta admit sneaking out yesterday... yeah, fishing trip, what else? ...LOL, lo and behold I managed an excellent choice of day for location, weather and lunar phase (new moon... and the planets musta been aligned as well) for had an action-packed aftn of catching! ...Headed back to Lac des Allemands, found sac-a-lait and bluegills in a ravenous mood... Numbers were great, as had 56 sacs jump aboard along with 10 b'gills... albeit, majority of sacs were smallish - next year's crop! - had over 20 that were a nice keeper size 10" to 13"... LOL, nahhh I released all but 3 sacs that had "dinner" written all over 'em! Actually, had 30 aftn, rest were at nite... was pleasantly coolish evening and stayed till called it quits about 11:30 PM... Glad to see a SE LA location with decent freshwater action, as a lot still suffering from aftermath of Katrina / Rita in all directions of the compass, aside from this area and a handful of others...

Weatherwise, Tuesday stayed on the mild side - 76 high, winds switched NE to SELY but generally under 15 mph, yet humidity remained relatively low... Temps Wednesday were also near norm - 58-59 low / 75-77 high... Weak system came across near sunrise with expected lite rain amts - only .09" here, while a few locations saw near half inch... April has been dry - 2.46" so far here - and dry it will remain, adding to the deficit likely for next 7-8 days until next Wed / Thu when stronger system comes thru... So far drought situation not critical, compared to last couple years... or compared to S Florida where it IS reaching critical, with Lake Okeechobee at or near all-time record low level...

AGW may decrease Atlantic hurricanes!

Read part of an interesting study, published today in Geophysical Research Letters by researchers Gabriel Vecchi and Brian Soden on possible effect of increased wind shear minimizing tropical cyclones in Atlantic and E Pac and becoming more of a frequent occurrence, thanks to... yep, global warming... (kinda like what we saw last year!)... well, dang! ...I knew someone would link the two, somehow... Hmmmm, guess the alarmists could have been wrong about 2005's devastating Atlantic tropical activity attributed to AGW - and I'm not about to deny anthropogenic forcing contributing to climate alterations... But it does show how the alarmists among us were waaay premature in touting GW as the cause of heightened tropical cyclone formation / intensity in the Atlantic, many who were proclaiming it before Katrina's winds had died down... (so why does TWC's Climate Code always show those images of Katrina slamming LA / MS when offering views of our GW future?) ...Anyway, a good read on this with excellent graphics and additional links can be found on GFDL's site - Model Projections: Global Warming and 21st Century Hurricanes... which shows the possible changes of increased / decreased shear, 700 mb RH, and tropical cyclogenesis potential across the globe... I'm sure Dr Jeff will feature this topic soon with greater explanation than I can here... LOL, we have a long way to go in seeing if theoretical climate alterations become reality in the the real climate... and the record of natural climate variability with it's wild swings will make that proof of causation, an elusive, arduous task... regardless of which outcome we endure.

Catch yas later,
ZZZZzzzzz's await...
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132. Redhead
2:16 AM GMT on April 19, 2007

COOL MySpace Comments
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