SE LA Wx...Tropical Update

By: DocNDswamp , 8:28 PM GMT on May 23, 2006

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SE LA WX Update:
Tue May 23 2006 1:30 PM CDT:

Weekly Outlook: Continued mostly sunny to PC w/ temps ranging mid/up 60's to mid/up 80's to near 90 next few days w/ only 10% chance iso/ws shwrs or T-storms...w/ POPS incr by late week. Had a few brief iso/ws shwrs form on Mon across SE LA, enhanced as up low in SW Gulf brought deep tropical moisture N and EWD - another immeasurable trace at my location, and still holding at .14" for May as drought conditions hold sway. ULL slowly moving E into Cen Gulf, advecting trop moisture towards FL...putting S LA more on the drier side of it's flow...in conjunction with the broad mid-upper level ridge over Cen US that is dominating our wx. Still, combined with surface to mid level high parked over NE Gulf and daytime heating, a weak seabreeze effect could form a few shwrs/T-storms in the aftn periods...

Overall WLY upper flow will continue to dominate...and Gulf ULL is forecast to weaken and lift northward. At the surface, low/mid level high pressure ridge will slowly migrate EWD of S FL in time, keeping us in a general SE, S and SWLY flow. Remains to be seen how much moisture increase occurs, but by weekend and early next week POPS may look a bit more favorable.

I should also note - have not reached or exceeded 90 yet this year in Houma...and many days of the past week or so only reached low 80's instead of forecasted up 80's...Haven't got above 87 yet, but won't be long...LOL. Close proximity to relatively cooler Gulf coastal SST's and dry air have been main factors. (Late aftn update: Temp reached 89...T-storms erupted late aftn, but mostly missed me...caught a mere .02"...up to whopping .16" for May! LOL.)

***************

Tropical Update:
In the Atlantic Basin - Gulf ULL that advected tropical moisture into the Cen and E Gulf areas should weaken and slowly lift north...small surface low reflection N of Yucatan will not develope. Strong upper level WLY shear values of 30 - 50 kts plus will continue across southern Gulf for foreseeable future ...as a feature of the return flow around the large upper level high centered over Hispaniola dominating the Caribbean with dry subsiding regime...and continuing strong westerly progression across the CONUS and mid latitudes. Atlantic surface ridge remains centered near the Azores with it trending to extend WSWward toward the E Caribbean/W Atlantic and in a broader sense, into the W Carib and Gulf...and by early June may be closer to it's Bermuda position, although it appears may largely remain farther E/ESE than "normal"...Should caution that long-range outlook is still unpredictable, and that regardless...it will fluctuate across as summer progresses.
GFS model tries to form tropical system in the latter part of first week of June in the W Carib. We'll just have to wait and see, as it's shown many varying scenarios on this for the last 5 days.

In the near term, we may very well see out first tropical depression or TS form this week...but it will be in the E Pac. This area has been under a slightly more favorable environment for over a month now, yet just outside the "zone" strong shear has been in place to shred anything that moved. With a lot of deep tropical moisture in place, the most favored area for convection and possible development lies west of Costa Rica / Nicaragua and south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. As the Gulf of Mexico ULL lifts out in the next few days, the subtropical jet streak should also rise further N in latitude giving lower shear values near the southern state of Oaxaca in S MX and Gulf of Tehuantepec... expanding the favorable zone of development both north and westward. Several areas along the ITCZ are showing some hints of organization...Also of interest, a weak ULL moved across Colombia (under the flow of the Carib high) last couple days...now moving across Panama. Will be interesting to see what effect this may have on EPac and more importantly, what may become of the trop wave that has been tracking across SA behind it...and whether it moves into the EPac or the SW Caribbean.

In any event, I would expect our nearest tropical development to occur in the EPac before one fires up in the West Atlantic Basin. We'll see...could be a close call.

BTW - Anyone surprised with NOAA's hurricane outlook? NOLA meteorologist Bob Breck noted all focusing on the 13-16 named storms, particularly the higher number...He's leaning to the lower number (13) based on historical records and averages...and he could be right. Ya never know till it's over...and, then again,...he could be "wishcasting" as well. For now, I'll keep the same outlook as I've had since February.....

Doc's 2006 Tropical Season Outlook:
18 Tropical Systems
2 Tropical/Subtropical Depressions
16 Named Storms
9-10 Hurricanes
5-6 Major Hurricanes (Cat 3-5)


PS: On a personal note, been quite busy and lot of concerns on the home front, so may be slow to respond...if anyone reads this stuff...LOL.

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43. Lovethetropics
10:28 AM GMT on May 26, 2006
Good morning Doc! Wake up, it's Friday!
Make it a great day!!
Member Since: August 18, 2005 Posts: 236 Comments: 11354
42. JeffStang
3:45 AM GMT on May 26, 2006
gamma,
A "speck" on the Gulf is a Speckled Trout also known as a Spotted Sea Trout. One of the best fish in the Gulf
Member Since: February 13, 2004 Posts: 8 Comments: 26
41. code1
3:39 AM GMT on May 26, 2006
Sorry to miss you again. Hope you can get back on the water soon! Which will mean Mom is better. Be praying and good thoughts coming for you and her. We all have our burdens, but we're friends, and sharing them makes it easier. Have a great holiday weekend if I don't see ya!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
40. StormJunkie
3:28 AM GMT on May 26, 2006
What's up Doc?

I posted a section in my blog about what liability could mean depending on how you look at it. The FSU thing just smells bogus.

Have a goodnight Doc

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
39. DocNDswamp
3:20 AM GMT on May 26, 2006
LOL WSI and Hills!
Yeah you right Hills, especially some predictions we've seen here! ...Well, I've run a disclaimer from time to time, but I doubt that many have successfully sued over a faulty wx forecast....hmmmm, then again... ya never know! I ran that one just to slap at FSU.
As far as giving a forecast or wx prediction, I do take this seriously...and usually spend hours viewing available data before I state anything. Unless I'm joking about something obvious, I will not issue wild, off-the-wall predictions. I'll leave that to others. LOL.

GetReal, whazzup! Now that's what I wanted to hear - fish chomping hungrily, eagerly awaiting my arrival! Way to go! Problem is, may be a bit longer before I can get out...so I assume ya got my fillets ready? More LOL! Glad you hit 'em, pal. Oh...and it's called sunblock, preferably spf 50... Ouch!

Gams - now there you go again! LOL. And I thought I had set ya straight...Specks are saltwater speckled trout in LA...probably called spotted seatrout in FL. Of course, we don't call our sac-a-lait...speckled perch, although above S LA they call 'em white perch.

Rays of Sunshine - Thanks as always! And yes, she's better today...back to Dr. tomorrow (Fri) for follow-up and blood test...Oh - I just remembered...it's Wab ya don't wanna see come visit in trop season...he's already claimed to be a Cat 5 magnet!!! Whoa!!! LOL.

Hello Amazin...Thanks, I should have included that possibility in the outlook. It may pan out kinda like the ULL we had in the Gulf this past week...but yeah, in time it could transform into a subtropical depression, STS or spawn a TD or TS...We'll see. And yep, as mentioned could get rather breezy if a strong pressure gradient sets up.

Gotta hit the hay early, busy tomorrow...
Good evening all.




Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4870
38. HillsboroughBay
12:22 AM GMT on May 26, 2006
They should put the diusclaimer on the entire website!
37. amazinwxman
10:31 PM GMT on May 25, 2006
THERE HAS BEEN GOOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
EVOLUTION PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM LAST FEW
DAYS HAS BEEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRAPPED MID LEVEL CLOSED TO
CUTOFF LOW TO DEVELOP FROM A PRGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER OH VALLEY IN THE SHORT RANGE IN THE WRN ATLC OR ALONG
THE MID ATLC-SERN SEABOARD. RAPID HT RISES AND HIGH AMPLITUDE
RIDGING ALONG WITH AN UPSTREAM FAVORABLE WAVELENGTH BETWEEN THE
RIDGE AND THE WRN TROF LEAVES ROOM AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THERE
WILL BE A CLOSED TO CUT OFF LOW IN THE WRN ATLC. RECENT DIFFICULTY
HAS BEEN HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST TO HAVE AN EFFECT. CURRENT
CONSENSUS OF MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL OF EVEN HIGHER MID LEVEL HTS IN
THE RIDGE WITH AN OFFSHORE TROF/CLOSED LOW TO ALLOW FOR A N-NE SFC
WIND COMPONENT DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD
36. Raysfan70
10:29 PM GMT on May 25, 2006
Good Evening {{Doc}}}. Always try and put
Rays of Sunshine every Morning.

Sorry to hear about your mom again. Hope that she takes it easy for awhile longer. But glad that things are back to normal.

Not going to junxs myself I hope. But SD may not want to come my way as I don't get anything here. And hope that it stays that way.

Have a Good Evening.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
35. seflagamma
10:21 PM GMT on May 25, 2006
Oh yes, Doc, thanks for the tropical update and I promise I will not hold you responsible for life limb or property!!!!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 305 Comments: 41026
34. seflagamma
10:18 PM GMT on May 25, 2006
Doc, agree with WSI, Love the disclaimer!!!!

GetReal, SPECKS in Salt Water??? I thought they are fresh water fish. The ones we catch, Crappie, Speckle Perch, Specks, Sac-a-Lac, etc.

Is there a salt water Speck??? Please let me know!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 305 Comments: 41026
33. GetReal
10:14 PM GMT on May 25, 2006
What's up Doc??? Here's my fishing report: SPECKS,SPECKS, and LARGE SPECKS everywhere!!! All you need to do is find saltwater and wet a line... I was fishing in the Barataria Bay area, just north of Grand Isle... Oh the water temp in the coastal waters was 78.6 degrees Far. Weather was fabulous... Bye have to tend to my sun burns now!!!
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
32. WSI
8:25 PM GMT on May 25, 2006
"Hello WSI. Good day to ya! "

Good day to you as well. Thanks for posting the link!

"I am not responsible for stupid decisions you may make based on my analysis"

LOL! That is by far the most humorous statement I have read on here in a while, besides Bob's statement on eating Hoss. LOL!

I added a disclaimer to my site too. Sad you have to do that these days.
31. DocNDswamp
8:07 PM GMT on May 25, 2006
Doc's DISCLAIMER: The following is my opinion based on my analysis...Do not make any decisions affecting life, limb or property based on this analysis alone. I am not responsible for stupid decisions you may make based on my analysis...for I could be WRONG!!! By far, please heed statements, advisories, watches, and warnings by NOAA, NWS, NHC and other official weather agencies when making decisions. Special thanks to FSU for causing this requirement!

***************

Brief Tropical Update Thu May 25 2006 2:45 PM CDT:
Our E Pac system near 10N 102W is having problems today, after looking promising...it might yet get going, but...appears wave's mid-level circulation de-coupled and has moved west away from the initial 1007 mb surface low...which is near 10.5N 99.5W, also looks like new convection now wrapping around that low. There's a decent supply of deep tropical moisture to it's south, but limited on the NW side, esp as shown on most recent chart of 700 mb (10K ft height) level relative humidity, still a bit dry there...upper level environment okay, although 25-30 kt WNW shear just above it near 15 northward... and that's lessening and lifting NWD as time goes on.

Guess we could get two distinct systems out of this disjointed mess in time - GFS continues to bring deepening low N toward Oaxaca, MX within 48 hrs or so. Also, keeping track of wave/convection below Panama...that came off Colombia yesterday...might also have a chance in a couple days if it tracks a bit WNW/NW in latitude. This is the wave the NHC tracked across SA...and was following behind the ULL that is now near 85W and between the equator and 5N or so. Low latitude and close proximity to the remains of that ULL will likely hinder short-term development.

Also, no cause for alarm...but shear in SW Gulf may be weakening and lifting further N by Sun/Mon - briefly...and GFS indicates a weak low in S Bay of Campeche near that time frame...as deep tropical moisture advects northward from the E Pac as well, partly in response to a slowly advancing frontal trof that will hang over SW TX into the Plains...Most likely to help enhance rain prob along Gulf coast states...I hope! LOL.

Gotta run...BBL.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4870
30. DocNDswamp
7:31 PM GMT on May 25, 2006
Hello WSI. Good day to ya!
Sure thing, this is the one I got from SJ (I think..LOL.) Hope this works...
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4870
29. DocNDswamp
7:27 PM GMT on May 25, 2006
Hiya Gams!
Great to hear from ya...and thanks! As I said before, y'all dont worry too much on this, a lot of us have similar concerns.
I know what ya mean - I haven't gone fishing in a while myself...and getting the shakes from withdrawal!

What's this about having fun before bad wx hits? I thought that was the fun of it all! Hey, look at the latest forecast - some self-appointed expert has put my area in the bullseye for this year's tropical strikes with a 30% probability...LOL. As far as I'm concerned, we have at least a 30% prob EVERY year!!!

Catcha soon Gams!
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4870
28. WSI
7:21 PM GMT on May 25, 2006
Hey Doc. Hope you are doing well. Would you mind posting the link to the Hopkins site? Thanks!
27. seflagamma
7:04 PM GMT on May 25, 2006
HI Ya, Doc, my Leo/Snake Brother,

I apologize that I haven't been on the blogs much this week and just now see your Mom's not well. Prayers and good thoughts going your way!!!

Great weather information in your header; don't we wish we had a little more time to have some fun before all the bad weather strikes... I would sure like to go fishing again soon!!!

I see I have already missed your Thursday check in so you will see this tomorrow.
You take care and let us know if you need to talk or anything!!!

Gams, your Leo/Snake Sister!!!
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 305 Comments: 41026
26. DocNDswamp
6:52 PM GMT on May 25, 2006
Mid Thursday check-in...

Hello {{{Rays}}} - you always brighten my day...early!

Hiya Code! Thanks...a little better, although Mom had brief episode again yesterday (She tried to do too much, too soon)... doubled her dose of diltiazem/cordezem got her back to norm. Okay today. Now if I could clone myself, maybe I could catch up with all else....Ha!

Hey SJ! Glad ya stopped by...Man I saw what happened on the FSU site...pissed a lot of folks off, eh? Soon as I saw it, I dumped the link and got the one from Penn St...Oh BTW, Thanks for the link to the J Hopkins site - those graphics have some of the best detail I've seen!

Hello SD! Yes, June 1 fast approaching...coming soon to a shoreline near you...Uhh, wait a minute...well, not near your shoreline. LOL. Nope, you'll hafta come visit me, Rays, Code, or SJ if ya want that kinda excitement!

Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4870
25. StormDrain
4:10 PM GMT on May 25, 2006
Hi Doc. One week till June 1.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 502
24. StormJunkie
11:34 AM GMT on May 25, 2006
Morning Doc. Good to see you.

SJ
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16970
23. code1
11:31 AM GMT on May 25, 2006
Morning Doc. Been missing you are your stop ins. Hope the "concerns on the home front" are better!
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872
22. Raysfan70
10:05 AM GMT on May 25, 2006
Good Morning {{{Doc}}}!!!
Have a Great Thursday.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
21. Raysfan70
10:28 AM GMT on May 24, 2006
Good Morning {{Doc}}!
It's Weds. Day. Have a Great Day.:)

Give the mom a {{{{}}}}}from me. Iknow that she can never have enough.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
20. DocNDswamp
6:00 AM GMT on May 24, 2006
Hello SD and Finn!
Great to hear from yas! Hope all is well with you gals. Thanks, on both counts! Yeah, I feel things will be okay with Mom...y'all dont get too worried yet, ya know she's a tough old gal herself. She's put up with me! LOL.
Hmmmm...now, I'm worried.....what a challenge that's been.

Have a great early Wed, friends!
Goodnite...;-)
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4870
19. StormDrain
5:47 AM GMT on May 24, 2006
Yah. Just read. Nite, Finn. Sleep well.
Nite Doc.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 502
18. StormDrain
5:46 AM GMT on May 24, 2006
Sending >>>>good energy your way>>>>Doc...Hoping all goes well.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 502
17. LakeWorthFinn
5:42 AM GMT on May 24, 2006
bedtime for me too, nite {{{SD}}}! (Close call with Doc's mom)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 68 Comments: 7585
16. StormDrain
5:39 AM GMT on May 24, 2006
Hi Finn,
Bedtime for me.
What close call? I better read.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 502
15. LakeWorthFinn
5:38 AM GMT on May 24, 2006
Oh {{{Doc}}}, just read about the close call. Prayers and warm thoughts have just been sent in a message in the bottle. Hope they arrive to your doc.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 68 Comments: 7585
14. LakeWorthFinn
5:33 AM GMT on May 24, 2006
Hi SD, we Wild Bunch seem to be Nite Bunch too!
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 68 Comments: 7585
13. LakeWorthFinn
5:32 AM GMT on May 24, 2006
Doc, great info as always!
Thanks,
anyone
PS. See, I DO read your blog.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 68 Comments: 7585
12. StormDrain
5:29 AM GMT on May 24, 2006
Hiya Doc,
Too tired to post anything intelligent. Just wanted to drop by and say Hi and G'nite!!
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 502
11. DocNDswamp
5:25 AM GMT on May 24, 2006
Late Evening check-in, LOL.

Hi Huri, thanks!
Same here, kinda hope for things to settle down to the point of boredom...LOL. Then I can spend another two weeks catching up on stuff. About Houma - you may have heard of a N/Cen LA town called Homer, LA. Houma is about 60 miles SW of New Orleans...and roughly 30 miles above the Gulf. On Katrina's effects here - answered similar question in my last blog, 5th comment I believe...and had an earlier entry back in my blog archives in October 2005, or...here we go, it's the Oct 14 entry - has a bit greater detail. (hope links work) And yes, the breadth of Katrina's destruction was incredible...with a swath of hurricane force damage 240 miles wide.

Rays - thanks again...and hope you're on the mend also! Now if I could deliver that rain for yas....

Hello Steel,
Great to hear from ya and thanks! The SST's are abbreviation for sea surface temperature. On Bob Breck's comparison - he used the previous record year 1933 (21 named storms, I think) and then showed what happened in 1934 and 1935 (far fewer), as an analogy from a historical perspective...probably to help calm everyone's nerves after last year went berserk in every way possible. Of course, no one knows, other than to make as accurate an estimate as possible based on all indicators available, which include climatological and historical records...Actually, as I remember, Breck was one of the few NOLA forecasters who strayed from the "FL panhandle landfall" earlier than the NHC. Clearly it wasn't, especially if one paid attention to the Water Vapor satellite loop...and studied their current charts that week Katrina was forming. Yep, I think Breck lost faith in the VIPER too when it took her up the E FL coast toward that trof near the Carolinas...trof was obviously lifting out and that area was filling in by the secondary surface high pressure building eastward that was over the Central Gulf states...Simply put, Katrina crossed from one high pressure system (in Atlantic) to another (N Gulf) as her main steering influences...Yes, I do recall a few other NOLA wx forecasters saying as late as Thu evening that "we look to be in pretty good shape", buying into the panhandle hit...Jeez, I was shaking my head...and already had some shutters up that day! Heck, I knew by Wed morn (Aug 24) we were in trouble - began preps that day getting gas and supplies well before the rush.
God, I could write a book on all this...LOL. Best of luck to ya this season, my friend.

Hiya Bug!
Thanks a bunch and definitely keep chanting our mantra! Nah, I haven't been on much since early last week...so far, so good with Mom. Yeah you right, so many serious health issues lately...and I hate when the phone rings late nite - it's usually not good news. Come to think of it, I hate anytime the phone rings!
Hey, that's great your Dad's turning 80 years young tomorrow...,er, today! Happy Birthday DaddyBug! Hope y'all get to enjoy it together...and give him a big WU {{{HUG}}} from all of us! And thanks again, I truly appreciate the thoughts and prayers.

Catch y'all soon!

Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4870
10. palmettobug53
1:57 AM GMT on May 24, 2006
Well, Doc, looks like the season is upon us. I'll be in the cheering section, with our WU mantra of "Fishstormfishstormfishstormfishstorm........!"
Will be checking in with you, along with Dr. Masters and anyone else with better weather know-how than I've got. So, hone those prediction skills!

I haven't been getting on here much of late, so seem to have missed something here. Seems your Mom has been having problems. I'm terribly sorry to hear that, Doc. Sure hope things improve for her.
I swear, it seems like an awful lot of us here have been having to deal with very rough family medical problems lately. I get a tad nervy, if my phone rings later in the evenings. Dad turns 80 tomorrow. He's been having respiratory problems for about the last 5 years, which worsened 3 years ago, after a bout of pneumonia. Other than that, he's in pretty good health and is still very active. Loves being outside, working in the yard, though he has slowed down a bit the last year or so. Ah, well....
Anyhoo, will be keeping your mom in my prayers.
Member Since: October 7, 2005 Posts: 245 Comments: 26013
9. steelmagnolia44
12:43 AM GMT on May 24, 2006
When I referred to the weekend before Katrina and Brecks comments, I meant when the storm was still around Florida and Viper had it turning north. I suppose I consider Aug. 27-29 Katrina weekend, and the weekend before that is the weekend before Katrina to me! The preparation was so frenzied by the 27th, it almost seems like part of the storm!
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
8. steelmagnolia44
12:36 AM GMT on May 24, 2006
I read it too, Doc!

Always interested even though a lot of the technical stuff is over my head. I learn a little more all the time!

What are SST's?

I saw Bob Breck's comments and was a little puzzled by his conclusions based on history! It seems those of you here, who make predictions based on science, are looking at the current conditions as well as how those conditions will evolve during the coming months. I lost some confidence in B. Breck the weekend before Katrina when he told everyone it would be a Florida storm. Some of the predictions on WU were already nailing landfall on the Mississippi Coast!
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
7. Raysfan70
12:22 AM GMT on May 24, 2006
Doc- thanks for the update. Just keep that watchful eye on her. As I know that you are.

{{{{{}}}} always here for you. Well when I not at work. :)
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
6. hurigo
12:20 AM GMT on May 24, 2006
Hi Doc, trouble on the home front?
Hope all goes well.
When things settle down, would love to know more about Houma. Got confused the other day when heard a news report about the another Houma. I don't believe we met before Katrina so I know little about how your area was affected. Know that just a few miles west of something can make a difference. Better check my geography before I embarass myself.
Member Since: October 9, 2005 Posts: 100 Comments: 6749
5. DocNDswamp
12:00 AM GMT on May 24, 2006
Hey M~E,
Thanks! You betcha...but ya know a lot of knowledgable folks here at WU will be giving some great opinions and analysis when we need it. And just keep chanting "Fish Storms"...LOL.

Hiya GPT,
Well...ya know how it goes - just state something as a fact and out it goes! Temp hit 89 today at mine and 2 other locations I trust as accurate. Guess I better change it in the entry...gonna hit 90 anyday, although surrounded by water (not just the Gulf), we're usually the last to reach it.
Hey...I just added to my rain total too...unfortunate as I am, only .02" this aftn!!! Meanwhile S and W Houma got dumped on! Saw one report exceeding 2" and some iso areas had more and might have had small hail to boot as that T-storm was almost severe level...Dang, that was frustrating. Glad you caught some needed rain too!

Hey '03,
Great to hear from ya...thanks my friend! LOL on ST, although I have to give him credit where due... I guess I haven't figured out how to make a long-term forecast without relying on model runs for some input... And you and I (and many others) know ya gotta recognize the "garbage in / garbage out" factor. In that, ST was right - the models were lost around Aug 22-25 before Kat. Yep, I'm guilty of spending hours analyzing sat loops (esp WV), anomalies, upstream/downstream trends and observations...but it sure is nice to compare that with models for guidance.
And what Outrocket said about instinct was so very true! Sage advice...

Hello Rays!
Saw your message as was about to post this. Thanks! Yeah, so far, so good...Mom's improving a bit, just slow to get her strength back...not unexpected though. I'm still shocked how close she came to a stroke...Oh, earlier ya asked - yes, she's had brief bouts with atrial fibrillation. This was most severe one. Thanks again, dear friend!

Okay, gotta run again...man I'm so far behind on everything. LOL.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4870
4. Raysfan70
11:17 PM GMT on May 23, 2006
Good Evening {{Doc}}. Hope things are getting better your way. My thoughts and prayers are with you.

A few sprinkles got through and then it was done.
Member Since: July 28, 2005 Posts: 138 Comments: 57354
3. weatherguy03
8:39 PM GMT on May 23, 2006
Nice report as usual Doc! I am hoping Stormtop will read this!..LOL Have a great day!
Member Since: July 5, 2005 Posts: 592 Comments: 29708
2. GPTGUY
8:39 PM GMT on May 23, 2006
hey doc severe T-storm here north of Gulfport temp dropped from 87-68 in 15 min already seen .30" of rain and counting and 2.28"/hr rain rate... and i've hit 90 3 times this year surprising you havent...91 last friday 90 last saturday and 91 today (before the fireworks) did you see any rain yesterday from that little shower that popped up north of Houma...I saw Bob Breck talking about it
Member Since: August 26, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
1. MaryEstherFLA
8:36 PM GMT on May 23, 2006
Doc
i do. i'm counting on you to tell me when to 'duck' .. !
:o)
Member Since: August 4, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 1190

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