Watching Chris, Caribbean disturbance - 6/20/12

By: CybrTeddy , 8:42 PM GMT on June 20, 2012

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Good evening and welcome to my tropical weather update for Wednesday, June 20th, 2012. The tropics are becoming more active today with two areas of interest, the first being Tropical Storm Chris north of Bermuda which isn't a threat to land, and our main area of interest - an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean, currently being hatched as a 20% chance of development by the NHC.

(figure 1. Tropical Storm Chris)

It appears at the moment that there is a high probability that Tropical Storm Debby could form sometime next week. The situation remains very complex in terms of development. The GFS, ECMWF remain adamant that a trough will come in and pick up this system as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico. The UKMET and CMC however are showing that the storm will be pushed back into the ridge. At the moment, I am more inclined with the ECMWF and GFS solution as they have been persistent that this will happen.

(figure 2. 12z ECMWF)

The intensity forecast is also problematic but I do believe that we will see at least a minimal TS from this if it develops. The ECMWF, GFS, and CMC all want to make this into a moderate-strong Tropical Storm as it approaches landfall, with the ECMWF being the most aggressive showing a borderline Hurricane as it moves into Tampa. Remember, this is a very fickle situation. I was telling you guys that the models where shoving this into Mexico like Arlene, and now they've switched back to Florida and they WILL switch again. We have no idea where this is going as there isn't an analyzed area of low pressure, it needs to be designated as an invest and then we will have a better idea. Please, do not flip out because one run of the models are showing a minimal hurricane into Tampa.

In short, what I believe will happen is that over the next day or so we will see several lows try to spin up around the general broad low, and that will probably begin to develop over the Yucatan and emerge into the Gulf. The ridge isn't as strong as it was predicted a week ago, so I believe it is entirely possible that a second trough will come through and pick up this system. It is also possible that the GFS and ECMWF are dead wrong and it will be forced under the ridge and into Texas. If I had to guess it would be only a 60mph TS at peak thanks to the shear in the Gulf that should help impede intensification and the ECMWF is known for being too bold. Interests from South Texas to Florida should watch this system.

In any regards, I will post another update tomorrow.

CybrTed

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5. tamipeach
8:56 PM GMT on June 20, 2012
thanks for the understandable update:)
Member Since: April 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
3. CybrTeddy
8:49 PM GMT on June 20, 2012
Quoting nigel20:
Thanks for the update, CybrTeddy!


Thanks for dropping by!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24757
2. nigel20
8:49 PM GMT on June 20, 2012
Thanks for the update, CybrTeddy!
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 14 Comments: 8780
1. CybrTeddy
8:48 PM GMT on June 20, 2012
Looks like Chris has reached peak intensity.
...CHRIS HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS...HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...
5:00 PM AST Wed Jun 20
Location: 38.5°N 49.0°W
Moving: E at 21 mph
Min pressure: 997 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24757

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