We want to hear from you. Please tell us how we can better serve you by taking this survey.

Tropical Storm Gert & 93L 8/15/11

By: CybrTeddy , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011

Good morning and welcome to my tropical weather update for Monday, August 15th, 2011. Tropics are fairly active today with two systems out in the Atlantic. The first is Tropical Storm Gert, which could be on its way to finally becoming Hurricane Gert. Then we have invest 93L located just to the west of the islands, which appears to be not at this time a imminent threat to develop.

(fig 1. invest 93L and Tropical Storm Gert.)

Tropical Storm Gert - the 7th named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season.
We are now on Gert, #7 of this season. While no 2005, this is the most active so far into the season since 2005. Later today, in 2008 Fay formed so as of this blog post 2011 is two named storms ahead of 2008, and that activity shows no signs of slowing down. Tropical Storm Gert is located at 31.5°N 63.3°W, maximum sustained winds have increased rather quickly to a 60 mph system. This can be contributed to Gert being such a small and compact system. Radar out of Bermuda shows that Gert is developing an eye, and could become a hurricane later today or tomorrow.

(fig 2. Satellite image of Tropical Storm Gert.)
Gert might continue to strengthen as I mentioned to a Category 1 hurricane. That would be our first hurricane of the season, and only 5 days late. However, it is very possible that Gert might not reach hurricane status because of now northerly shear that is starting to impact Gert, giving it a more flat look to it, limiting its outflow for intensification. That being said, I see Gert peaking at 70-75 mph before going extra-tropical. Its funny how Gert formed, split off energy from Emily. It appears to be ex-Emily's MLC that became Gert, I never would have expected then 94L to develop into a tropical cyclone. Just goes to show how unpredictable the tropics are.

Invest 93L not a threat to develop.
Our next area of interest is once-again revived invest 93L. 93L is located just to the east of the islands and will head into the Caribbean and could even track the entire length of the islands. That being said, development is unlikely in my opinion. You have a bunch of dry air in the Eastern Caribbean and no model support. There is no 850mb vort. which assures that 93L will not develop in the eastern Caribbean. It is also a fast mover, which limits time it will spend in the Caribbean. Based on all that, while I will continue to monitor 93L I do not think it will become Harvey.

(fig 3. Invest 93L satellite image)

(fig 4. Invest 93L tracking computer models)


Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

2. CybrTeddy
2:55 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 25342
1. Some1Has2BtheRookie
2:54 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Thank you, for the update. Great information.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5139

Viewing: 2 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

CybrTeddy's tropical weather blog

About CybrTeddy

Welcome to my Blog!

Local Weather

Light Rain
63 °F
Light Rain

CybrTeddy's Recent Photos

Lunar Eclipse over Tampa Bay
Harvest Moon in HDR
The Orion Nebula early Thursday morning
Gazing upon the shores of the lunar oceans

Personal Weather Stations

Waterford Lakes
Orlando, FL
Elevation: 122 ft
Temperature: 61.5 °F
Dew Point: 59.5 °F
Humidity: 93%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 1.0 mph
Updated: 3:31 PM EST on February 06, 2016

About Personal Weather Stations