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By: CybrTeddy , 2:30 PM GMT on August 15, 2011
Good morning and welcome to my tropical weather update for Monday, August 15th, 2011. Tropics are fairly active today with two systems out in the Atlantic. The first is Tropical Storm Gert, which could be on its way to finally becoming Hurricane Gert. Then we have invest 93L located just to the west of the islands, which appears to be not at this time a imminent threat to develop.
(fig 1. invest 93L and Tropical Storm Gert.)
Tropical Storm Gert - the 7th named storm of the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season.
We are now on Gert, #7 of this season. While no 2005, this is the most active so far into the season since 2005. Later today, in 2008 Fay formed so as of this blog post 2011 is two named storms ahead of 2008, and that activity shows no signs of slowing down. Tropical Storm Gert is located at 31.5°N 63.3°W, maximum sustained winds have increased rather quickly to a 60 mph system. This can be contributed to Gert being such a small and compact system. Radar out of Bermuda shows that Gert is developing an eye, and could become a hurricane later today or tomorrow.
(fig 2. Satellite image of Tropical Storm Gert.)
Gert might continue to strengthen as I mentioned to a Category 1 hurricane. That would be our first hurricane of the season, and only 5 days late. However, it is very possible that Gert might not reach hurricane status because of now northerly shear that is starting to impact Gert, giving it a more flat look to it, limiting its outflow for intensification. That being said, I see Gert peaking at 70-75 mph before going extra-tropical. Its funny how Gert formed, split off energy from Emily. It appears to be ex-Emily's MLC that became Gert, I never would have expected then 94L to develop into a tropical cyclone. Just goes to show how unpredictable the tropics are.
Invest 93L not a threat to develop.
Our next area of interest is once-again revived invest 93L. 93L is located just to the east of the islands and will head into the Caribbean and could even track the entire length of the islands. That being said, development is unlikely in my opinion. You have a bunch of dry air in the Eastern Caribbean and no model support. There is no 850mb vort. which assures that 93L will not develop in the eastern Caribbean. It is also a fast mover, which limits time it will spend in the Caribbean. Based on all that, while I will continue to monitor 93L I do not think it will become Harvey.
(fig 3. Invest 93L satellite image)
(fig 4. Invest 93L tracking computer models)
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Updated: 8:24 AM EST on November 30, 2015