Tropical trouble possible off Africa 7/11/11

By: CybrTeddy , 2:12 PM GMT on July 11, 2011

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Good afternoon and welcome to my tropical weather update for Monday, July 11th, 2011. Right now looking at the Atlantic there is hardly much going on, there is a flareup in the monsoonal trough in the SW Caribbean with a small area of rotation. However this vort max is expected to move inland due to a strong ridge that we saw with Arlene still in place and move into Central America with no development anticipated. There is a tropical wave approaching the islands with a 10% chance of development on the NHC site, however satellite already shows it falling apart and development is not expected. Right now, we'll be focusing on two areas to watch over the coming days, the SW Caribbean and for the first time this season - off Africa.

(fig 1. The current view of the tropical Atlantic)

Run down of the models & predictions.
First, I want to talk about what the latest GFS is showing, the 06z run, which is showing an interesting setup. The GFS was showing at first a tropical storm developing in the SW Caribbean and moving inland into Central America. It has since dropped this development, but its showing a period that there will be several strong waves emerging off Africa. The first is currently over Western Africa moving westward. In 84 hours, it shows a very strong wave emerging off Africa and gradually begin to develop into perhaps a tropical depression. The 06z run was much weaker than the 00z model run of this, which showed a tropical storm attempting to form in the Central Atlantic, and at this time however only shows a depression at most. After that, there are two well organized waves that emerge right behind this system.

(fig 2. 06z GFS 120 hrs out - wave off Africa worth watching)

At this time, it is only the GFS showing any sort of development off Africa. Remember, the GFS caught Arlene first a few months ago and if you have a good memory even you'll remember that in 2008, the GFS caught the wave that became Bertha back in July 2008 first. I suspect that this could very possibly happen, if the GFS remains very consistent with this happening and models start jumping on board. The GFS is also showing this happening in a relatively short term, in 84 hours we could be dealing with a system. I'm quite skeptical of this occurring however, until at least the CMC and NOGAPS gets onboard with the GFS for any sort of development. However, this is showing to us that we're in for a very active Cape Verde season which is usually the case for neutral seasons like this.

(fig 3.image of the tropical wave that could be worth watching.)

We'll keep an eye on it.

CybrTed

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7. CybrTeddy
6:15 PM GMT on July 11, 2011
thanks again!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 25169
5. emcf30
2:54 PM GMT on July 11, 2011
Thanks Ted, I have a feeling things are going to heat up in the next couple of weeks.
Member Since: August 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1957
3. ILwthrfan
2:36 PM GMT on July 11, 2011
Good post!

Whats the MJO setup look like for the last half of July and early august?

The Upper Central Atlantic from 35N - 20N latitude and 80W - 50 W longigute, that area has MUCH warmer SST this year than any year I have yet to find in the archive, including 2005 & 2010.

It wouldn't surprise me to if we see 6 or more storms form in August.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
2. CybrTeddy
2:26 PM GMT on July 11, 2011
yw!
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 25169
1. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:17 PM GMT on July 11, 2011
Thanks!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34481

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