Invest 90L, a threat to develop

By: Civicane49 , 12:19 AM GMT on July 27, 2011

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Invest 90L,is currently located in northwestern Caribbean Sea is expected to move west-northwestward to the Gulf of Mexico and hit mainly Texas over the next several days according to the recent model tracks. The disturbance has become better organized with increased convection, circulation and its 850 mb vorticity has increased as well than compared to yesterday. The closed circulation however is not yet present in 90L. It is currently in the 5 to 10 kts of wind shear region and over warm sea surface temperatures which should allow 90L to gradually organize. Wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico is forecasted to be marginally favorable by the time the disturbance is in that area, thus it would have a chance to develop into a tropical depression or Tropical Storm Don which is the name picked by NHC for the next tropical storm. The NHC forecasted 90L 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, it will bring showers and thunderstorms to parts of Cuba and northeastern Yucatan peninsula.

Figure 1. Latest infrared satellite image of Invest 90L south of extreme western Cuba.


Other than Invest 90L, there is no significant tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic Basin and the Central & Eastern Pacific. However we may have to continue watching the tropical waves coming out of Africa as the Cape Verde season is approaching. For the Eastern Pacific, 00z NOGAPS, one of the computer models of the region, is predicting a weak tropical storm or a tropical depression developing off the Pacific coast of Honduras and Nicaragua on day 5. However, other models show it would be a tropical depression or a disturbance.


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2. Civicane49
2:48 AM GMT on July 27, 2011
Thanks for the reply.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
1. KoritheMan
12:36 AM GMT on July 27, 2011
Excellent writeup. The models have certainly trended more poleward, which to me suggests the probability of a United States landfall, rather than a Mexico one. This is in agreement with your forecast.

As for the Pacific development, last night the 0z CMC was also developing it. Not the most reliable models in the bunch to be sure, but hey. ;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 597 Comments: 21099

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