Amanda intensifying; not a major threat to land

By: Civicane49 , 9:32 AM GMT on May 24, 2014

Share this Blog
0
+

Tropical Storm Amanda is strengthening as it is moving slowly moving west-northwestward in the northeast Pacific Ocean. As of the 2:00 am PDT National Hurricane Center advisory, the maximum sustained winds of the tropical storm are 65 mph, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. It is moving west-northwestward at around 5 mph. The system is centered about 630 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Satellite imagery reveals a well-organized tropical storm with a prominent central dense overcast and improved outer banding pattern. Microwave imagery suggests a developing inner core structure as well as a mid-level eye underneath the central dense overcast.

Forecast for Amanda
Warm waters around 29°C and light vertical wind shear should allow Amanda to strengthen for at least the next 48 hours. With the establishing inner core, the cyclone have a high likelihood of rapid strengthening. In fact, the Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model indicate a 55% chance of 40 kt wind increase within 24 hours. SHIPS, HWRF, and GFDL forecast rapid strengthening for the next 24-36 hours. After 48 hours and beyond, Amanda will encounter higher wind shear and cooler waters, which should result steady to rapid weakening of the cyclone.

Amanda is currently moving slowly west-northwestward as it is situated between the mid-level ridge centered over Mexico to the northeast and the mid to upper-level trough over southwestern United States to the north. This large-scale pattern should continue a slow west-northwestward motion for at least the next 24 hours or so. The trough is expected to shift to the east and should allow the ridge to re-strengthen. This, along with the approaching upper-level trough from the west, should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward and gradually turn northward in 36-48 hours. At this time, Amanda is not expected to be a significant threat to land.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Amanda. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Civicane49

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

No reader comments have been posted for this blog entry yet.

About Civicane49