Tropical Storm Flossie aiming towards Hawaii

By: Civicane49 , 7:49 PM GMT on July 28, 2013

Share this Blog
8
+

Tropical Storm Flossie continues to take aim at Hawaii. As of the 5 am HST advisory from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), Flossie has maximum sustained winds at 65 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 996 mb. It is located about 535 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii or about 720 miles east of Honolulu, Hawaii. The system is moving westward at 20 mph. Although Flossie has been over cool waters of 25°C (which is below the 26°C threshold needed for tropical storms to sustain), it remains fairly organized as it continues to produce modest amount of thunderstorms in the center as seen on satellite image.


Figure 1. GOES West infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Flossie approaching towards Hawaii. Image credit: NASA/MSFC.

Forecast for Flossie
Flossie will continue to move generally westward in the next several days as it remains south of a mid-level ridge. Nearly all the track guidance shows Flossie reaching the Big Island and Maui by tomorrow afternoon and passing south of Oahu on Monday night. The GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement on the timing, which increases confidence in the forecast. Flossie will weaken steadily during the next several days. Although water temperatures will increase in Flossie’s projected path, a large amount of dry air is evident on water vapor imagery. In addition, shear is forecast to slowly increase in the next few days. The combination of dry air and increasing shear should result in gradual weakening. Yesterday, I believe that Flossie will weaken and make landfall in Hawaii as a tropical depression. However, given the storm’s progress and conditions, a rare tropical storm landfall becomes inevitable. The cyclone should dissipate by Wednesday after it passes the Hawaiian Islands.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands are urged to monitor the progress of this storm as it will likely bring heavy rain, thunderstorms, strong gusty winds, and large surf on early Monday into Tuesday. Torrential rainfall could trigger dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. Heavy rainfall is anticipated for the Big Island by Monday morning and will spread to Maui County and Oahu by later that day. Flossie is expected to bring 6-10” of rain over Hawaii and Maui counties and 4-8” for Oahu. The high winds could result in power outages and some structural damage. Gust could reach up to 60 mph for some localized areas. Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the Hawaii and Maui counties and tropical storm watch is issued for Oahu. Tropical storm watch may be required for the Kauai County by later today. Dangerously high surf will begin to impact the east facing shores of the islands by tonight and is expected to peak on Monday and Tuesday.


Figure 2. Wind speed and direction forecast on Monday, July 29, 2013 at 11 am HST. Image credit: National Weather Service, Hawaii.

I will have an update by tomorrow for the latest on Flossie.

Civicane49

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 10 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

10. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
8:11 PM GMT on July 29, 2013
Civicane49 has created a new entry.
9. msphar
7:10 PM GMT on July 29, 2013
Flossie has split in two. The Low Level Center is rapidly spinning along the forecast path towards Maui and eventually Oahu. While last nights DMax development remains drifting a bit South of West destined for the lower edge of the Big Island.

So wind in the North and rain in the South. Maui straits is getting a lot of wind right now.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
8. msphar
3:28 AM GMT on July 29, 2013
Track has been shifted South about a degree. Goes right over the big mountains. That will be interesting to watch. I think it goes further South again.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
7. msphar
11:54 PM GMT on July 28, 2013
She is falling apart in the dry air, and losing her track, drifting abit South. The mountains will shred her.
Member Since: August 20, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 289
6. trHUrrIXC5MMX
10:24 PM GMT on July 28, 2013
fresh image... just uploaded it..
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
5. PedleyCA
8:39 PM GMT on July 28, 2013
Hang in There, Stay Safe All.....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5927
4. hydrus
8:34 PM GMT on July 28, 2013
Unusual for Hawaii getting a T.S. without El-Nino around..Very good blog 49.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21418
3. Civicane49
8:05 PM GMT on July 28, 2013
Quoting 1. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
thanks... Hilo may be up for some big winds but not for the worst.
heavy rains and rough surf are expected there...

do you have any webcams from there?


Here are the webcams from Hilo, Hawaii:

UH Hilo webcams

Hilo Bay webcam
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
2. nigel20
7:57 PM GMT on July 28, 2013
Thanks Civicane! I hope that the impact will be limited.
Member Since: November 6, 2010 Posts: 11 Comments: 8150
1. trHUrrIXC5MMX
7:55 PM GMT on July 28, 2013
thanks... Hilo may be up for some big winds but not for the worst.
heavy rains and rough surf are expected there...

do you have any webcams from there?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873

Viewing: 10 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

About Civicane49