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92E nearly a tropical depression; possible development over Caribbean in June
By: Civicane49 , 8:56 PM GMT on May 27, 2013
A well-defined area of low pressure (Invest 92E) located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better organized and is on its way of becoming a tropical depression. Satellite intensity estimates from both SAB and TAFB were T1.5/30 mph. The system features a well-organized cloud pattern with organized thunderstorm activity, good outflow pattern, and good spiral bands mainly in the southern semicircle on visible satellite imagery. However, satellite imagery suggests that the low-level center is not very well-defined yet and lacks sufficient convection over it during the past several hours. In addition, it remains embedded along the monsoon trough, which would cause development slow to occur. Nevertheless, it appears that the system is in the process of detaching itself and is improving its low-level center.
Forecast for 92E
I foresee 92E becoming a tropical depression by tomorrow or so if current trends continue. Situating in an extremely conducive environment with very warm sea surface temperatures, low to nonexistent wind shear, moist atmospheric environment, and good outflow pattern, there is no reason why the system should not continue to organize and become a tropical cyclone in the near future. Although, the low-level center is not very well organized yet, it should improve in the next several hours. While the system remains attached to the monsoon trough, it is in the process of detaching itself; once it detaches, it should quickly organize and become a tropical cyclone. I feel that the system should attain at least moderate tropical storm intensity. Nearly all of the statistical and dynamical models are in a good agreement that 92E will attain moderate tropical storm intensity before landfall. Though, there is a slight chance of becoming a minimal hurricane, given the very favorable conditions ahead. Although the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave the low an 80% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, I believe the odds must be higher and give it a 90% chance. 92E should continue to move slowly northwestward. Then by tomorrow or Wednesday, the system should begin to move northward and make landfall on the Mexican coast near Puerto Angel on Thursday as depicted by the models. The system would bring strong winds and very heavy rain, leading to dangerous flash floods and mudslides, to that area. HWRF model foresees copious amounts of rainfall in that region. Interests along that area should monitor the progress of the low.
Figure 1. Afternoon visible satellite image of Invest 92E. Image credit: Mauna Kea Weather Center (MKWC).
Invest 91E remains disorganized
A weak area of low pressure (Invest 91E) located about 700 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico remains poorly-organized. This system has not changed much in organization today as convection remains limited and disorganized on satellite images. Further development of 91E appears unlikely to occur as conditions will slowly become more hostile for development in the coming days. The shear is expected to gradually increase over the system by day three, which should prevent further organization. Moreover, dry air to the north of the low would limit convective activity. Thus, I give this system a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. 91E is anticipated to move slowly westward over the eastern Pacific before moving to the east and being absorbed by the secondary low.
Figure 2. Afternoon infrared satellite image of Invest 91E. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.
Potential development over northwestern Caribbean on early June
The GFS ensembles and other models have been consistent in showing the lowering pressures across much of the western Atlantic in the first week of June. The upward Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulse is currently in the eastern Pacific and is beginning to move into the western Atlantic and would remain in that region until early June. The upward MJO pulse will help enhance convection across much of the western Atlantic. In addition, shear is forecast to decrease gradually across the Caribbean by early June, allowing any development to occur. Although it remains highly uncertain that we will see a tropical cyclone developing out of this, development is still not out of the question yet.
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