Invest 91E remains disorganized in the Pacific

By: Civicane49 , 12:41 PM GMT on May 24, 2013

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An area of low pressure (Invest 91E) centered about 550 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico remains disorganized. Shower and thunderstorm activity remains very limited and disorganized as seen on satellite imagery. The latest ASCAT pass revealed an ill-defined low-level center, which is exposed on satellite images. Although water temperatures and upper-level winds remain favorable for development, the system’s interaction with the monsoon trough would disrupt further organization.

Forecast for 91E
Despite its disorganized state, 91E has a potential to develop. Conditions appear to remain quite favorable for gradual development. It will be traveling over sea surface temperatures greater than 26.5°C threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation. Vertical wind shear is forecast to remain light over the system in the next several days. The main inhibitors I see for this system is the interaction with the monsoon trough as well as some dry air around it. All things considered, I give it a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. 91E should continue to move westward over the next several days as it will be steered along the southern periphery of the high pressure ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. The system could then move slightly poleward as the trough is forecast to amplify over the western United States by four to five days. 91E is highly unlikely to threaten land.


Figure 1. Morning infrared satellite image of Invest 91E. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There is an area of disturbed weather associated with the remains of the tropical wave located just off to the west of Costa Rica. Global models have been consistent in showing it becoming a tropical cyclone situating south of Mexico by next week. However, landfall is a possibility for the Mexican coast. The disturbance is expected to move westward and then west-northwestward in favorable conditions for development.

Civicane49

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2:33 AM GMT on May 25, 2013
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