Rosa nearly a remnant low; 90E little threat to develop

By: Civicane49 , 3:04 AM GMT on November 04, 2012

Tropical Depression Rosa is soon to become a remnant low. The latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory states that the cyclone has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and minimum central pressure of 1007 mb. It is located roughly 1025 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas in Mexico. The system is moving westward at 6 mph as it is embedded in an easterly flow. Recent satellite image reveals that the cyclone is a tight swirl of low clouds with limited deep convection. Rosa continues to succumb due to high upper-level southwesterly shear. A large upper-level low pressure trough is expected to continue generating strong wind shear over 30 knots to Rosa in the next several days. The depression will likely to degenerate into a remnant low early tomorrow. Rosa is forecasted to turn northwestward or possibly northward in the next few days. It is not anticipated to threaten any land areas.

Figure 1. Evening infrared satellite image of Tropical Depression Rosa. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.

90E little threat to develop
An area of low pressure centered roughly 400 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has been classified as Invest 90E. Last visible satellite image and recent ASCAT pass depict that the disturbance has a closed surface circulation. However, satellite image is also depicting that the thunderstorm activity is disorganized. Strong upper-level southwesterly shear is shifting deep shower and thunderstorm activity away to the east of the center. The SHIPS model is forecasting 90E to remain in a high shear environment for the next few days. I do not expect significant development of this system; I give this system a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, the system is currently bringing heavy rain to the southwestern coast of Mexico. Heavy rains are forecasted to linger in the next few days. 90E is anticipated to move northward or northwestward.

Figure 2. Evening infrared satellite image of Invest 90E. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.


Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

2. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:29 PM GMT on December 01, 2012
Civicane49 has created a new entry.
1. wxchaser97
7:09 AM GMT on November 04, 2012
Thanks for the blog Civi.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984

Viewing: 2 - 1

Page: 1 — Blog Index

Top of Page

Civicane49's WunderBlog

About Civicane49