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TD 15-E forms; 97L a little threat to develop
By: Civicane49 , 7:12 PM GMT on October 06, 2012
Tropical Depression Fifteen-E has formed earlier today after maintaining sufficient organization. Recent satellite image and microwave data reveal that the incipient depression is well-organized with an eye-like feature, organized deep convection, and good spiral bands. These indicate that the cyclone is intensifying. I expect this system to become Tropical Storm Olivia later today if current organization continues. As of the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory, the tropical depression has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and minimum central pressure of 1006 mb. The system is situated roughly 845 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. It is moving west at 10 mph.
Forecast for 15-E
The depression will have a limited time to strengthen before weakening in hostile conditions. Environmental conditions are currently relatively favorable for further intensification of the cyclone. Sea surface temperatures are expected to remain warm above 26°C through 48 hours. Wind shear is forecasted to remain light to moderate range through 48 hours. However, water vapor satellite imagery depicts a large area of dry air present to the north and west of the cyclone. Dry air may be a problem for the system to further strengthen. However, I believe the cyclone will intensify slowly over the next couple of days. After 48 hours, the system is anticipated to weaken gradually as it will enter into unfavorable conditions with cooler waters, higher shear, and drier airmass. Many models are forecasting the system to become a moderate tropical storm and shows slow weakening thereafter. The cyclone will likely dissipate by the next four days.
The tropical depression is forecasted to move slowly west-northwestward over the next few days. The subtropical ridge over the Pacific Ocean is anticipated to weaken. As a result, the depression would be in weak steering currents. The cyclone is not expected to threaten any land areas.
Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.
97L a little threat to develop
An elongated area of low pressure has been designated as Invest 97L earlier today. It is situated about 250 miles east of the southeastern Bahamas. Recent satellite image suggests that the disturbance is producing somewhat disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. However, ASCAT pass reveals that the tropical disturbance has a low-level circulation. The disturbance is expected to move westward and then turn northeastward. The system is forecasted to remain over warm sea surface temperatures during the next several days. However, both moderate wind shear and some dry air may slow development. Many global models show little or no development of 97L. I give the tropical disturbance a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, the system will bring some rain to parts of Bahamas during the next few days.
Figure 2. Infrared satellite image of Invest 97L. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.
The GFS model is predicting a tropical cyclone developing in the Caribbean Sea by the next fourteen days. The GFS model is also forecasting a tropical cyclone development to occur south of the Pacific coast of Mexico by the next eight days.
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