98L accelerating north-northeastward; 90E unlikely to develop

By: Civicane49 , 9:04 PM GMT on July 25, 2012

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Earlier today, Invest 98L has made a slight comeback with little increase in thunderstorm activity. The system is also producing gale-force winds. Although the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has not declared this system to be a tropical cyclone yet, it is possible that this system would be reclassified as an unnamed tropical storm in post-season analysis. Regardless of whether or not this is a tropical cyclone, 98L is forecasted to become an extratropical storm very shortly as it moves hastily north-northeastward into very cold water and high wind shear. The non-tropical low pressure system is located roughly 350 miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. The system may affect Greenland as an extratropical cyclone in the next few days. The NHC gives 98L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before it enters into very unfavorable conditions.

Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery of Invest 98L. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University (CSU).

90E unlikely to develop
Eastern Pacific tropical disturbance, Invest 90E, appears unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone as it is expected to enter into unfavorable conditions by the next few days. 90E is located about 1,300 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The disturbance is moving westward between 10 and 15 mph. Recent satellite imagery depicts that the shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized mainly due to the interaction with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). 90E will likely to continue to be disorganized and not further develop. In fact, many models are now showing little to no development of the disturbance. The models are anticipating environmental conditions to become unfavorable with increasing shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and drier air mass in the next few days. 90E is expected to weaken in the coming days and would likely dissipate in the central Pacific. 90E is anticipated to move generally westward over the next several days and later turn west-northwestward as the high pressure ridge is forecasted to strengthen. The disturbance is not anticipated to threaten any land areas. The NHC is giving 90E a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next two days.

Figure 2. Infrared satellite imagery of Invest 90E. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University (CSU).

Elsewhere
The tropical wave that just exited off the coast of Africa is not expected to develop. However, the GFS model shows that two more tropical waves might become weak tropical depressions in the next five to nine days; however, the model forecasts these systems to dissipate within a few days. Nevertheless, we are nearing the time of year when tropical waves become significant hurricanes over the far eastern Atlantic.

Civicane49

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3. Civicane49
9:46 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
Quoting KoritheMan:
You should consider assigning your own probabilities for development, rather than using the hurricane center's.


Thanks. I'll think about it.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
2. KoritheMan
9:41 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
You should consider assigning your own probabilities for development, rather than using the hurricane center's.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21679
1. GeorgiaStormz
9:08 PM GMT on July 25, 2012
Thx.
I see you didnt hype the waves ;)
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9764

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