98L forms in the Atlantic; 90E struggling to organize

By: Civicane49 , 2:12 AM GMT on July 25, 2012

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Over the North Atlantic Ocean, there is a non-tropical low that is situated roughly 700 miles east-northeast of Bermuda as it moves northeastward between 15 and 20 mph. This system was classified as Invest 98L earlier today. Latest satellite imagery reveals that 98L is continuing to lose frontal characteristics. However, recent satellite images also depict that the thunderstorm activity of the system diminished due to diurnal minimum. Earlier today, though, microwave and satellite images depicted that the system had developed an ephemeral eye-like feature. 98L is producing near or at gale force winds. Environmental conditions appear somewhat marginally favorable for further development in the next 12 - 18 hours.

Forecast for 98L
98L is expected to move north-northeastward over the next several days under the influence of the south-southwesterly flow. Many models agree with this forecast track. The system is not expected to be a significant threat to any land areas over the next few days. 98L has a small window of opportunity to become a tropical cyclone before entering into very cold waters and becoming an extratropical cyclone. 98L has a chance to briefly become a tropical cyclone, if it increases its thunderstorm activity and continues to have an organized structure for the next 18 hours. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 98L a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before entering into unfavorable conditions.

Figure 1. Evening infrared satellite image of Invest 98L. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University (CSU).

90E not getting better organized
Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific, Invest 90E is not getting better organized, despite the fact that it is in relatively favorable conditions with warm sea surface temperatures at 28°C and moist environment. However, some wind shear and interaction with Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) are both likely inhibiting the tropical disturbance to further organize and develop. Recent satellite imagery reveals that both the overall cloud pattern and the circulation of 90E have become disorganized. The disturbance is situated about 1,100 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The system is moving westward at about 10 mph. The NHC is giving this tropical disturbance a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Forecast for 90E
90E still has an opportunity to organize further and become a tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next few days. The SHIPS model forecasts environmental conditions to remain relatively favorable in the next three days. After three days, however, the system is forecasted to enter into more hostile conditions with cooler sea surface temperatures at less than 26°C, higher wind shear, and drier air mass. These conditions should weaken the system gradually. 90E is likely to be a remnant low when it is in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s (CPHC) area of responsibility. 90E is anticipated to move west-northwestward by a building high pressure ridge to the north of the disturbance. Nearly all of the models are in excellent agreement with this forecast track. The tropical disturbance is not expected to threaten any land areas; however, the remnants of 90E might bring slight increase in showers to the Hawaiian Islands by early to middle of next week.

Figure 2. Evening infrared satellite image of Invest 90E. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University (CSU).

In the eastern Atlantic, there is a tropical wave that just exited off the west coast of Africa. None of the recent model runs are forecasting further development of it. Moreover, the models forecast another tropical wave to enter into the eastern Atlantic by the next seven days. Though, none of the models forecast it to become a significant tropical cyclone as well. However, keep in mind that we’re near in the time of year when tropical waves develop into tropical cyclones in the far eastern Atlantic.


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3. KoritheMan
2:29 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
"Ephemeral"? Big word there, kiddo. ;)
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 603 Comments: 21792
2. wxchaser97
2:28 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Great job Civicane!
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
1. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:21 AM GMT on July 25, 2012
Thanks C49.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33876

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