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Hurricane Daniel continues to weaken; Emilia rapidly strengthens
By: Civicane49 , 10:33 PM GMT on July 09, 2012
In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Daniel continues to weaken gradually in cool sea surface temperatures and in dry atmospheric environment. As of the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory, Daniel has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 992 mbar. It is moving westward at 16 mph, and it is located about 1635 miles east of Hilo in the Big Island of Hawaii. Recent satellite image reveals that the deep convection of the small hurricane continues to diminish.
Forecast for Daniel
Daniel is expected to continue moving inexorably westward over the next five days by the southern edge of the high pressure ridge. Nearly all of the models are in excellent agreement with this forecast track. The cyclone is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s (CPHC) area of responsibility by Tuesday night. It is forecasted to pass safely south of the Hawaiian Islands by the next four to five days. Daniel might bring little to no effects to the islands. Daniel is anticipated to continue weakening over the next few days as it is expected to remain in unfavorable conditions with cool waters and dry air. The conditions are forecasted to be more hostile as the wind shear is expected to increase greatly in the central Pacific. The cyclone is anticipated to weaken to a tropical depression by the time it crosses into the CPHC’s area of responsibility. Shortly afterwards, it will likely become a remnant low.
Figure 1. Afternoon infrared satellite image of Hurricane Daniel. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.
Hurricane Emilia rapidly intensifies
Behind Daniel, Hurricane Emilia continues to rapidly strengthen in very favorable conditions. As of the latest NHC advisory, Emilia has maximum sustained winds of 110 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 969 mbar, making it a strong Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 15 mph, and it is located roughly 680 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. Recent satellite image depicts that Emilia continues to intensify rapidly with a well-defined eye and good spiral bands.
Forecast for Emilia
Emilia is anticipated to continue moving west-northwestward over the next several days under the influence of the southward periphery of the high pressure ridge over southwestern United States. By days 4 to 5, the cyclone is predicted to turn westward. Nearly all of the models are in excellent agreement with this forecast track. The cyclone is not expected to threaten any land areas; however, it might reach Hawaii as a remnant low, and bring added showers on the windward side of the islands.
Emilia is expected to continue the process of rapid intensification over the next 24 hours or so as it will remain in favorable conditions with warm sea surface temperatures, light wind shear, and moist environment over the next 48 to 72 hours. The system has a good chance of becoming a Category 4 hurricane in the next 12 to 24 hours. The SHIPS model indicates that the probability of rapid intensification for 30 - 35 knot wind increase in the next 24 hours is 30%. After 24 hours, however, the cyclone may weaken slightly due to the possible eyewall replacement cycle, which is natural for intense tropical cyclones. After the next 72 hours, Emilia is anticipated to move into unfavorable conditions with cool sea surface temperatures and dry and stable atmospheric environment, which these should weaken the hurricane gradually.
Figure 2. Afternoon infrared satellite image of Hurricane Emilia. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.
Elsewhere in the tropics.
Behind Emilia, there is an area of disturbed weather that may become a tropical cyclone in the next several days. Global models, including the GFS and ECMWF, are forecasting this disturbance to become a tropical cyclone in the next 72 to 120 hours. The NHC is giving this system a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. In the Atlantic basin, however, none of the computer models are forecasting significant tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
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