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Daniel near hurricane strength; Invest 97E likely to develop
By: Civicane49 , 10:13 PM GMT on July 06, 2012
Tropical Storm Daniel is approaching hurricane strength as it continues moving westward at 12 mph. The cyclone is located about 710 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Recent satellite image depicts that the cloud pattern of Daniel has not changed much over the past several hours. The storm maintains a central dense overcast in the center; however, the eye still does not appear on satellite images. As of the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory, Daniel has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and minimum central pressure of 993 mbar. If Daniel’s maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph or higher, then it will become a hurricane.
Forecast for Daniel
Daniel is anticipated to continue moving generally westward over the next several days under the influence of the southern periphery of a high pressure ridge. All of the models are in excellent agreement of this forecast track. The storm is not expected to threaten any landmasses as a tropical cyclone. Daniel could reach the Hawaiian Islands as a remnant low, and may bring added showers and wind to the islands. According to the latest SHIPS model, Daniel has roughly 24 hours left remaining in favorable conditions with warm sea surface temperatures, light wind shear, and moist atmospheric environment; therefore, the system still has an opportunity to become a minimal hurricane briefly. After 24 hours, however, Daniel is expected to enter unfavorable conditions with cold waters and dry and stable atmospheric environment, which these should weaken the cyclone. Daniel is expected to become a remnant low in the next 96 to 120 hours as it crosses into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s (CPHC) area of responsibility.
Figure 1. Afternoon infrared satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Daniel. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.
Invest 97E likely to develop
Behind Daniel, there is an area of low pressure, classified as Invest 97E, producing shower and thunderstorm activity. The tropical disturbance is situated roughly several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec as it is forecasted to move westward over the next 24 hours and later move west-northwestward. The disturbance is not expected to threaten any landmasses. Latest satellite imagery shows that the disturbance is slowly showing signs of organization. 97E is over favorable conditions with very warm sea surface temperatures, light to moderate wind shear, and moist environment. These conditions should help the system to further organize and strengthen. SHIPS model indicates that environmental conditions will remain favorable for 97E over the next 96 hours. In fact, most of the models are forecasting 97E to become a hurricane by the next 72 hours. The NHC is giving 97E a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.
Figure 2. Afternoon infrared satellite imagery of Invest 97E. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.
Elsewhere in the tropics
Models, including the reliable GFS and ECMWF, are predicting yet another tropical cyclone developing in the eastern Pacific roughly in the next seven days. In the Atlantic basin, however, none of the computer models are forecasting significant tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.
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