95L over the North Atlantic; 95E organizing in the Pacific

By: Civicane49 , 8:55 PM GMT on June 18, 2012

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A non-tropical low pressure (95L) has a potential of becoming a subtropical or tropical storm during the next couple of days. The system is situated roughly 400 miles north-northwest of Bermuda; the low pressure contains gale-force winds. Latest satellite image shows that 95L is gaining some tropical characteristics, despite the fact that it is over cool waters at 23°C, which is below the 26°C threshold that is needed for tropical cyclones to survive and strengthen.

95L is expected to continue moving northeastward and then east-northeastward by the large high pressure ridge to the southeast of the system. The disturbance will not affect any land masses. While 95L is over cool waters and in high upper-level wind shear region, the disturbance can still become a weak subtropical or tropical storm. If the disturbance’s convection continues to increase, it could become a subtropical or tropical storm later today or tomorrow. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 95L a 50% chance of becoming a subtropical or tropical cyclone during the next two days.


Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Invest 95L.

95E organizing in the East Pacific
Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific, a different disturbance (95E) also has a potential of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days. The disturbance is located about 260 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Recent satellite image depicts that the disturbance is continuing to show signs of organization.

95E is anticipated to move eastward as most models are indicating. The disturbance is currently in the relatively favorable conditions with moderate wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. These conditions could help 95E to slowly organize and strengthen. The NHC is giving 95E a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor this system closely as there would be a threat for heavy rains, which would cause flash floods and mudslides in the next few days.


Figure 2. Visible satellite imagery of Invest 95E.

Civicane49

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