Civicane49's WunderBlog

Tropical wave 99L has a chance to develop in the Atlantic

By: Civicane49, 7:50 PM GMT on July 30, 2012

After a period of inactivity in the Atlantic, there is a central Atlantic tropical wave that has a chance to develop. This tropical disturbance is classified as Invest 99L. The system is situated roughly 900 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The system is moving westward between 10 and 15 mph. Recent satellite image reveals that 99L remains disorganized and scatterometer data suggests that the system does not have a well-defined surface circulation yet. The system also appears to be still attached to an Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Additionally, 99L is located at 9°N, which is relatively close to the equator. This latitude does not have sufficient atmospheric spin. Without enough atmospheric spin, the tropical disturbance would struggle to become a tropical cyclone. 99L appears that it would develop slowly as it would remain in relatively favorable conditions with warm sea surface temperatures at 28°C, light wind shear at 10 knots, and fairly moist environment. Saharan Air Layer (SAL) analysis depicts that the SAL is situated north of the system.

Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery of Invest 99L. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University (CSU).

Forecast for 99L
The development of 99L is expected to be gradual. Once the system gains latitude and detaches from the ITCZ, it will likely have a better chance for further development. The SHIPS model forecasts conditions to remain favorable over the next five days. Sea surface temperatures are anticipated to remain warm at about 28°C, which is above the 26.5°C threshold of what a tropical disturbance is needed to become a tropical cyclone. Wind shear is expected to be low. Atmospheric conditions are predicted to remain somewhat moist. These conditions would support further development of 99L in the next several days.

99L is forecasted to remain in a general westward path and later turn west-northwestward aiming at the Lesser Antilles by a high pressure ridge over the Atlantic. Models are spreading out the future path of 99L. Some models forecast the system to enter into the Caribbean Sea and dissipate, while other models predict that the disturbance will move northwestward in favorable conditions and stay north of the Caribbean Islands. How strong 99L can get determines whether or not it moves westward or more northward. If 99L becomes stronger, then it will likely move northwestward. However, if the system remains fairly weak, then it will likely move westward or west-northwestward. I think 99L is forecasted to move west-northwestward and hit the Lesser Antilles. I’m not really confident yet for where 99L will go after it is near the Lesser Antilles. Regardless of development, the disturbance is expected to bring heavy rains and possibly gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles and other Caribbean Islands by the next several days. Interests along the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern Caribbean Islands should monitor the system closely during the next several days. I give 99L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next two days.

We are now near the active period of hurricane season. If you don’t have hurricane preparedness kit yet, now it is the good time to get it.

Elsewhere
In the central Pacific, there is a tropical disturbance producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms on satellite imagery. The system is classified as Invest 90C. The disturbance is situated roughly 450 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. 90C is moving westward at about 15 mph. Environmental conditions are not anticipated to be favorable for further development of the system. I give 90C a near 0% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone development is anticipated in the next two days.

Next entry
This will likely be my second to the last entry of the year. My next special entry will be released on September 11. I will remind you on that day if anyone forgets. The next entry will be my last update for a while.

Civicane49

Hurricane

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98L accelerating north-northeastward; 90E unlikely to develop

By: Civicane49, 9:04 PM GMT on July 25, 2012

Earlier today, Invest 98L has made a slight comeback with little increase in thunderstorm activity. The system is also producing gale-force winds. Although the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has not declared this system to be a tropical cyclone yet, it is possible that this system would be reclassified as an unnamed tropical storm in post-season analysis. Regardless of whether or not this is a tropical cyclone, 98L is forecasted to become an extratropical storm very shortly as it moves hastily north-northeastward into very cold water and high wind shear. The non-tropical low pressure system is located roughly 350 miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. The system may affect Greenland as an extratropical cyclone in the next few days. The NHC gives 98L a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before it enters into very unfavorable conditions.

Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery of Invest 98L. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University (CSU).

90E unlikely to develop
Eastern Pacific tropical disturbance, Invest 90E, appears unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone as it is expected to enter into unfavorable conditions by the next few days. 90E is located about 1,300 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The disturbance is moving westward between 10 and 15 mph. Recent satellite imagery depicts that the shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized mainly due to the interaction with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). 90E will likely to continue to be disorganized and not further develop. In fact, many models are now showing little to no development of the disturbance. The models are anticipating environmental conditions to become unfavorable with increasing shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and drier air mass in the next few days. 90E is expected to weaken in the coming days and would likely dissipate in the central Pacific. 90E is anticipated to move generally westward over the next several days and later turn west-northwestward as the high pressure ridge is forecasted to strengthen. The disturbance is not anticipated to threaten any land areas. The NHC is giving 90E a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next two days.

Figure 2. Infrared satellite imagery of Invest 90E. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University (CSU).

Elsewhere
The tropical wave that just exited off the coast of Africa is not expected to develop. However, the GFS model shows that two more tropical waves might become weak tropical depressions in the next five to nine days; however, the model forecasts these systems to dissipate within a few days. Nevertheless, we are nearing the time of year when tropical waves become significant hurricanes over the far eastern Atlantic.

Civicane49

Hurricane

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98L forms in the Atlantic; 90E struggling to organize

By: Civicane49, 2:12 AM GMT on July 25, 2012

Over the North Atlantic Ocean, there is a non-tropical low that is situated roughly 700 miles east-northeast of Bermuda as it moves northeastward between 15 and 20 mph. This system was classified as Invest 98L earlier today. Latest satellite imagery reveals that 98L is continuing to lose frontal characteristics. However, recent satellite images also depict that the thunderstorm activity of the system diminished due to diurnal minimum. Earlier today, though, microwave and satellite images depicted that the system had developed an ephemeral eye-like feature. 98L is producing near or at gale force winds. Environmental conditions appear somewhat marginally favorable for further development in the next 12 - 18 hours.

Forecast for 98L
98L is expected to move north-northeastward over the next several days under the influence of the south-southwesterly flow. Many models agree with this forecast track. The system is not expected to be a significant threat to any land areas over the next few days. 98L has a small window of opportunity to become a tropical cyclone before entering into very cold waters and becoming an extratropical cyclone. 98L has a chance to briefly become a tropical cyclone, if it increases its thunderstorm activity and continues to have an organized structure for the next 18 hours. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives 98L a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before entering into unfavorable conditions.

Figure 1. Evening infrared satellite image of Invest 98L. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University (CSU).

90E not getting better organized
Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific, Invest 90E is not getting better organized, despite the fact that it is in relatively favorable conditions with warm sea surface temperatures at 28°C and moist environment. However, some wind shear and interaction with Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) are both likely inhibiting the tropical disturbance to further organize and develop. Recent satellite imagery reveals that both the overall cloud pattern and the circulation of 90E have become disorganized. The disturbance is situated about 1,100 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The system is moving westward at about 10 mph. The NHC is giving this tropical disturbance a 40% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Forecast for 90E
90E still has an opportunity to organize further and become a tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next few days. The SHIPS model forecasts environmental conditions to remain relatively favorable in the next three days. After three days, however, the system is forecasted to enter into more hostile conditions with cooler sea surface temperatures at less than 26°C, higher wind shear, and drier air mass. These conditions should weaken the system gradually. 90E is likely to be a remnant low when it is in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s (CPHC) area of responsibility. 90E is anticipated to move west-northwestward by a building high pressure ridge to the north of the disturbance. Nearly all of the models are in excellent agreement with this forecast track. The tropical disturbance is not expected to threaten any land areas; however, the remnants of 90E might bring slight increase in showers to the Hawaiian Islands by early to middle of next week.

Figure 2. Evening infrared satellite image of Invest 90E. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University (CSU).

Elsewhere
In the eastern Atlantic, there is a tropical wave that just exited off the west coast of Africa. None of the recent model runs are forecasting further development of it. Moreover, the models forecast another tropical wave to enter into the eastern Atlantic by the next seven days. Though, none of the models forecast it to become a significant tropical cyclone as well. However, keep in mind that we’re near in the time of year when tropical waves develop into tropical cyclones in the far eastern Atlantic.

Civicane49

Hurricane

Updated: 2:14 AM GMT on July 25, 2012

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90E moving west-northwestward, not a threat to land

By: Civicane49, 9:45 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

In the eastern Pacific, Invest 90E continues to organize as it moves west-northwestward at 10 mph. The system is located roughly 785 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Although satellite imagery shows that the tropical disturbance has not changed much over the past several hours, the system shows some signs of organization; 90E is also maintaining deep convection near the center over the past several hours. The disturbance is in favorable conditions with warm sea surface temperatures at 28°C, low wind shear at 10 knots, and moist environment. These conditions should allow 90E to continue organizing and become a tropical cyclone in the next couple of days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this disturbance a 90% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next two days.

Forecast for 90E
The SHIPS model forecasts conditions to remain conducive during the next four days. During the next 96 hours, sea surface temperatures are forecasted to remain warm over 26°C, wind shear is expected to remain low, and atmospheric environment is predicted to remain moist. These conditions should allow the system to strengthen at least a tropical storm. After four days, however, conditions are forecasted to become unfavorable with cool sea surface temperatures and significant increase in shear. These conditions should weaken the system. The system is likely to become a remnant low by the time it is in the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s (CPHC) area of responsibility. 90E is anticipated to continue moving west-northwestward over the next five days as the high pressure ridge is expected to build to the north of the disturbance. All of the models are in excellent agreement with this forecast track. The tropical disturbance is not expected to threaten any land areas; however, it might bring little increase in showers to Hawaii as a remnant low by the middle of next week.

Figure 1. Afternoon infrared satellite imagery of Invest 90E. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University (CSU).

Elsewhere in the tropics
In the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, there is an area of a weak low pressure system producing thunderstorm activity to parts of Florida. The disturbance is expected to move northward and into the Florida Panhandle by tomorrow. Environmental conditions are not favorable for this system to develop. The NHC is giving this tropical disturbance a near 0% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, the system is forecasted to continue bringing heavy rains and some gusty winds to parts of Florida in the next 24 hours or so.

The GFS model predicts that a future tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic would develop a weak low pressure by the next five to seven days. The model forecasts another future tropical wave with a weak low pressure in the same area by the next seven to nine days. However, other models do not forecast these to become significant tropical cyclones at this time.

Civicane49

Hurricane

Updated: 11:52 PM GMT on July 23, 2012

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Tropical disturbance forms near Florida; 90E becomes better organized

By: Civicane49, 8:34 PM GMT on July 22, 2012

An area of disturbed weather has formed over southern Florida and northwestern Bahamas. The disturbance is currently producing shower and thunderstorm activity to these areas. Additionally, this system is producing gale force winds. In fact, Fowey Rocks in Florida reported wind gust to 62 mph earlier today, and southern parts of Florida also received wind gusts to 40 mph. Recent satellite imagery shows that the disturbance’s cloud pattern appears relatively impressive with deep convection; however, the convection has diminished slightly over the past several hours.

Forecast for tropical disturbance
Although the system is in favorable conditions with warm sea surface temperatures, light to moderate wind shear, and moist environment, it has unusually high surface pressures. Furthermore, none of the models develop this system into a tropical cyclone. Thus, development is unlikely at this time. Regardless of development, the tropical disturbance is forecasted to continue bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to portions of southern and central Florida and northwestern Bahamas during the next 24 hours or so. By 48 hours, the heavy rain and gusty winds are expected to spread to northern Florida and northeastern Gulf of Mexico as the disturbance moves northwestward by the southwestern edge of the high pressure ridge. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this disturbance a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery of the tropical disturbance. Image credit: Mauna Kea Weather Center imagery.

90E becomes better organized
Meanwhile, in the eastern Pacific, Invest 90E continues to become better organized as the shower and thunderstorm activity persists on satellite images. This system is located roughly 725 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico as the disturbance is moving west-northwestward at 10 – 15 mph. Further development of this tropical disturbance is expected. 90E is situated in favorable atmospheric conditions with warm sea surface temperatures at 28°C, low wind shear at 5 – 10 knots, and moist environment. The NHC is giving 90E an 80% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Forecast for 90E
The SHIPS model is forecasting conditions to remain favorable for the next four to five days. In fact, most models anticipate 90E to become a tropical storm. I expect 90E to organize and strengthen over the next several days and become a strong tropical storm. After five days, however, the system is forecasted to enter into unfavorable conditions with cool sea surface temperatures at less than 26°C and drier air. These conditions should weaken the system gradually. 90E is predicted to move west-northwestward over the next five days by the building high pressure ridge. Many models are in excellent agreement with this forecast track. 90E is not expected to be a threat to any land areas. However, the system might affect Hawaii by the middle of next week by bringing little increase in shower activity.

Figure 2. Infrared satellite imagery of Invest 90E. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University (CSU).

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclone development is anticipated during the next two days.

Civicane49

Hurricane

Updated: 12:58 AM GMT on July 23, 2012

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New Pacific tropical disturbance forms, no threat to land

By: Civicane49, 1:43 AM GMT on July 22, 2012

In the eastern Pacific, an area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave has formed several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Earlier today, the tropical disturbance is classified as Invest 90E. Satellite imagery reveals that the incipient disturbance has disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. 90E is situated in favorable atmospheric conditions with warm sea surface temperatures at 28.5°C, moderate wind shear at 10 – 15 knots, and moist environment. Additionally, scatterometer data suggests that the disturbance has an elongated surface center. The National Hurricane Center is giving 90E a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next two days.

Forecast for 90E
SHIPS model shows that conditions is forecasted to remain favorable for the disturbance over the next three days. Furthermore, some other models predict 90E to become a minimal tropical storm in the next few days. Thus, I expect the system to gradually organize and strengthen to a tropical storm by the next several days. After four days, however, it is forecasted to enter into unfavorable conditions with cooler sea surface temperatures less than 26°C, higher wind shear, and drier atmospheric environment. These conditions should weaken the system gradually. The tropical disturbance is anticipated to move generally west-northwestward over the next several days by a building high pressure ridge to the north of the disturbance. By the next four days, the system could turn westward. Models are forecasting it to move west-northwestward over the next several days. 90E is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery of Invest 90E. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University (CSU).

Elsewhere
The Atlantic basin remains quiet, and none of the reliable computer models are predicting significant tropical cyclone development in the next seven days. Although models are forecasting the trough split over the Atlantic in the next 24 to 48 hours, tropical cyclone development is unlikely to occur.

Civicane49

Hurricane

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Fabio continues to weaken over the Pacific

By: Civicane49, 10:29 PM GMT on July 17, 2012

Fabio is weakening as it moves northward in unfavorable atmospheric conditions. As of the latest National Hurricane Center advisory, Fabio has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and minimum central pressure of 1004 mbar, making it a weak tropical storm. Recent satellite image shows that Fabio continues to produce little convection. The combination of cold sea surface temperatures, dry air, and increasing shear should continue to weaken Fabio. The cyclone will likely become a tropical depression later tonight, and become a remnant low in the next 12 to 18 hours. Fabio is expected to dissipate in the next 2 to 3 days. The system is anticipated to continue moving northward and later turn slightly north-northeastward; many models agree with this forecast. The remnants of Fabio might increase shower activity to portions of southern California by the next 24 hours or so.

Figure 1. Afternoon infrared satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Fabio. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University (CSU).

Elsewhere
Aside from Fabio, there is an area of disturbed weather that is located about 775 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The development of this system is forecasted to be gradual. Global models are not forecasting significant development of this system. The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a 10% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

For the Atlantic basin, few models forecast possible tropical cyclone development from the trough split near the United States East Coast by the next five to eight days. However, I have some doubts that it will really form.

Civicane49

Hurricane

Updated: 11:59 PM GMT on July 17, 2012

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Fabio weakens to a tropical storm, expected to weaken further

By: Civicane49, 10:14 PM GMT on July 16, 2012

Fabio has weakened to a tropical storm as it moved north-northwestward in unfavorable conditions. As of the latest National Hurricane Center advisory, Fabio has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 992 mbar. The storm is moving north-northwestward at 9 mph, and it is located roughly 700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Although Fabio has made a slight increase in convection recently on satellite images, the convection will likely diminish later tonight or tomorrow due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions with cold sea surface temperatures at 23°C and dry air. The combination of cold waters and dry air should weaken Fabio over the next 24 hours or so. Fabio will likely become a remnant low by the next 36 hours to 48 hours; by the next three to four days, the remnant low will likely dissipate. Fabio is forecasted to turn northward later today by the high pressure ridge. The system is expected to remain in this direction over the next couple of days, before turning north-northeastward. Many models are in good agreement with this forecast track. The remnants of Fabio might bring some added moisture to southern California by the next several days.

Figure 1. Afternoon infrared satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Fabio. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University.

Elsewhere in the tropics
After Fabio dissipates, the eastern Pacific will temporarily be free from tropical cyclones. Additionally, the Atlantic basin is expected to remain quiet over the next several days. However, some models, including the GFS, forecast possible tropical cyclone formation from a trough split near the United States East Coast by the next six to eight days. For the eastern Pacific, some global models forecast potential tropical cyclone development by the next six to eight days.

Civicane49

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Fabio attains peak intensity, should begin to weaken

By: Civicane49, 8:19 PM GMT on July 15, 2012

Hurricane Fabio attains its peak intensity as it moves west-northwestward. As of the latest National Hurricane Center advisory, Fabio has maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 972 mbar, making it a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 9 mph, and it is located about 640 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Recent satellite image reveals that the eye has become cloud-filled and the deep convection has somewhat diminished. These indications suggest that Fabio is beginning to weaken due to the hurricane moving into unfavorable conditions.

Forecast for Fabio
Fabio has reached its peak intensity, and it is now beginning to weaken. The hurricane is moving into cool sea surface temperatures at less than 26°C, which is unfavorable for tropical cyclones. Fabio is expected to weaken rapidly as it is expected to move into colder waters and drier air. Fabio should weaken to a tropical storm in the next 24 hours or sooner. By the next 72 hours, the cyclone will likely become a remnant low and will later dissipate. Fabio is anticipated to continue moving west-northwestward during the next 24 hours by a high pressure ridge. After that, the cyclone should turn north-northwestward and then northward by the low pressure trough, which is expected to create a break in the high pressure ridge. Some models are in good agreement with this forecast track. Fabio is not anticipated to be a major threat to land.

Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Fabio. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Emilia has become a remnant low, and it is moving westward into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s area of responsibility. After Fabio dissipates, the eastern Pacific is expected to be temporarily quiet without tropical cyclones. No tropical cyclone development is expected for the Atlantic basin in the next 48 hours. However, the GFS model is forecasting possible tropical cyclone development from the low pressure trough split over the Atlantic Ocean and near the United States East Coast by the next six to eight days. For the eastern Pacific, some models, including the ECMWF, are forecasting possible tropical cyclone formation by the next seven days or so.

Civicane49

Hurricane

Updated: 10:30 PM GMT on July 15, 2012

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Fabio becomes a Category 2 hurricane; Emilia expected to weaken further

By: Civicane49, 2:01 AM GMT on July 15, 2012

Fabio intensified to a Category 2 hurricane, after it maintained its strength in the past 24 hours. As of the latest National Hurricane Center advisory, Fabio has maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 972 mbar, making it a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 9 mph, and it is located about 575 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Recent satellite loop reveals that the eye has become more symmetric and less ragged in the past several hours.

Forecast for Fabio
Fabio appears to be near peak intensity as the cyclone has about 12 hours left in favorable conditions with warm sea surface temperatures. Additional strengthening is possible. After 12 hours, however, the system is forecasted to enter cool sea surface temperatures at less than 26°C, which should commence the weakening trend of the cyclone. By the next 48 hours, Fabio should weaken rapidly as it is anticipated to be in colder waters at less than 23°C. Fabio could become a remnant low after the next 96 hours and later dissipate. Fabio is forecasted to continue moving west-northwestward over the 36 hours due to the high pressure ridge, which is situated north of the cyclone. After that, however, the trough of low pressure is anticipated to allow Fabio to turn north-northwestward and then northward in the next 48 to 72 hours and beyond. Most models are in good agreement with this forecast track. The remnants of Fabio might increase shower activity to southern California and northwestern Baja California by late next week.

Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Fabio. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University.

Emilia expected to weaken further
Tropical Storm Emilia maintains its strength as it moves westward. The latest National Hurricane Center advisory states that the tropical storm has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 997 mbar. The storm is situated roughly 1585 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Recent satellite image depicts that Emilia has most of the convection activity located in the eastern side of the system. Additional weakening for Emilia is anticipated as it is expected to remain in unfavorable conditions with cool sea surface temperatures and dry atmospheric environment. Emilia is forecasted to become a remnant low in the next 36 hours or so. The system is forecasted to continue moving westward over the next several days by the southern edge of the high pressure ridge.

Figure 2. Infrared satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Emilia. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University.

Civicane49

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Fabio becomes a hurricane; Emilia continues to weaken

By: Civicane49, 10:26 PM GMT on July 13, 2012

Fabio has become a hurricane. The latest National Hurricane Center advisory states that Fabio has maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 986 mbar, making it a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 10 mph, and it is located roughly 515 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. Fabio has become the fourth earliest sixth tropical cyclone to form in the East Pacific’s season. Recent satellite imagery shows that the hurricane is developing a ragged eye. Although Fabio is still affected by some moderate wind shear, the cyclone has managed to intensify.

Forecast for Fabio
Despite some moderate shear that is expected to affect Fabio over the next two days, the hurricane is anticipated to strengthen further during the next 12 to 24 hours due to favorable conditions with warm sea surface temperatures and moist environment. After 24 hours, however, the cyclone is forecasted to slowly weaken when it moves into unfavorable conditions with cool sea surface temperatures at less than 26°C. In the next 72 hours, Fabio is anticipated to weaken rapidly as it is predicted to be in cold sea surface temperatures at 23°C. By the next 120 hours, the system is anticipated to become a remnant low and dissipate shortly. Fabio is predicted to continue moving west-northwestward over the next 48 to 72 hours. After 72 hours, however, it is forecasted to turn north-northwestward and then northward. Many models are in good agreement with this forecast track. The remnants of Fabio might bring little increase in showers to northwestern Baja California and southern California in the coming days.

Figure 1. 2km Natural Color Imagery of Hurricane Fabio. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University.

Tropical Storm Emilia continues to weaken
Emilia has weakened to a tropical storm as it moved westward over the Pacific Ocean. As of the latest National Hurricane Center advisory, Emilia has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 996 mbar. The storm is situated about 1240 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Satellite imagery reveals that Emilia has a small area of deep convection. The cyclone is anticipated to weaken further due to unfavorable conditions with cool sea surface temperatures and dry atmospheric environment. Emilia is likely to become a remnant low in the next 36 hours. The system is predicted to continue moving westward over the next several days by the high pressure system to the north of the cyclone. The remnant low of Emilia might bring little increase in showers to the Hawaiian Islands in the next five to six days, when it passes south of the islands.

Figure 2. Afternoon infrared satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Emilia. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University.

Civicane49

Hurricane

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Hurricane Emilia on the weakening trend; Fabio strengthening

By: Civicane49, 10:25 PM GMT on July 12, 2012

After little fluctuations in intensity of Emilia over the past couple of days, the cyclone now appears to begin the weakening trend. The hurricane is moving over cool sea surface temperatures at less than 26°C, which is the threshold for tropical cyclone that needs to sustain itself. In response to cool sea surface temperatures, Emilia begins to weaken as the satellite image shows the system becoming less organized. The latest National Hurricane Center advisory states that Emilia has maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and minimum central pressure of 965 mbar, making it a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The cyclone is moving westward at 12 mph, and it is located roughly 980 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

Forecast for Emilia
Now that Emilia will remain in unfavorable conditions with cool waters and dry atmospheric environment, the cyclone should begin the weakening trend. The system is expected to become a remnant low by the next four days or sooner. Similar to Hurricane Daniel's track, Emilia is forecasted to continue moving generally westward over the next five days by the high pressure ridge over the Pacific Ocean. Many global models are in good agreement with this forecast. Moreover, many models are forecasting the remnants of Emilia to pass south of Hawaii by the next eight to nine days. The remnant low might bring some added showers to the Hawaiian Islands, when it passes south of the islands.

Figure 1. Afternoon infrared satellite image of Hurricane Emilia. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University.

Tropical Storm Fabio strengthening
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fabio is strengthening as it is situated roughly 425 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico and moving west-northwestward at 10 mph. As of the latest National Hurricane Center advisory, Fabio has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and minimum central pressure of 1000 mbar. Recent satellite loop reveals that Fabio has not changed much over the past several hours; the cyclone maintains deep convection in the center.

Forecast for Fabio
Fabio is expected to continue strengthening over the next couple of days as it is forecasted to remain in favorable conditions with warm sea surface temperatures, moderate wind shear, and moist atmospheric environment. These conditions should allow the system to steadily strengthen and become a hurricane in the next two days. After two days, however, Fabio is anticipated to enter into unfavorable conditions with cold waters, which should weaken the cyclone rapidly. The system is likely to become a remnant low by the next five days. Fabio is anticipated to continue moving west-northwestward over the next three days. Afterwards, it is expected to turn north-northwestward due to the break in the high pressure ridge. Fabio is unlikely to be a significant threat to Mexico.

Figure 2. Afternoon infrared satellite image of Tropical Storm Fabio. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University.

Civicane49

Hurricane

Updated: 10:44 PM GMT on July 12, 2012

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Emilia re-strengthens; 98E nearly a tropical depression; Daniel weakening

By: Civicane49, 10:43 PM GMT on July 11, 2012

Hurricane Emilia has managed to re-strengthen into a major hurricane today, after completing its eyewall replacement cycle, which is typical for intense tropical cyclones. Recent satellite image suggests that the cyclone has some characteristics of an annular hurricane with weak spiral bands and relatively large eye. The latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) states that Emilia has maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 960 mbar, making it a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. It is located roughly 750 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and it is moving west-northwestward at 9 mph.

Forecast for Emilia
Emilia may remain its current strength over the next 6 to 12 hours with marginally favorable conditions. After that, the system is expected to enter in unfavorable conditions with cool sea surface temperatures and dry atmospheric environment, which these should weaken it. Since the cyclone has an annular structure, it should weaken slowly over the next day or so. The system is anticipated to become a tropical depression or a remnant low by the time it crosses the 140°W longitude into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s (CPHC) area of responsibility. Emilia is forecasted to continue moving west-northwestward over the next several days under the influence of the southern periphery of the high pressure system. The cyclone is expected to turn westward in the next three to four days. Emilia is not expected to be a major threat to any land areas as a tropical cyclone; however, Emilia might bring some added showers to the Hawaiian Islands as a remnant low by the next eight days. Nearly all of the models are in excellent agreement with this forecast track.

Figure 1. Afternoon infrared satellite imagery of Hurricane Emilia. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University.

Invest 98E nearly a tropical depression
Invest 98E is likely to become a tropical cyclone in the next couple of days. The tropical disturbance is situated about 425 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico as it is moving west-northwestward at roughly 10 mph. 98E is situated over very warm sea surface temperatures at 29°C, which should help the disturbance to further organize. Furthermore, recent satellite image reveals that the disturbance is continuing to show signs of organization as it is maintaining deep convection in the center, although some moderate wind shear is affecting the system. However, the SHIPS model forecasts the shear to lessen in the next 24 hours, which should allow 98E to strengthen to a tropical depression and eventually become a tropical storm. Many models are forecasting 98E to move northwestward and not threaten Mexico over the next several days. The NHC is giving 98E an 80% chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next two days.

Figure 2. Afternoon infrared satellite imagery of Invest 98E. Image credit: RAMMB imagery Colorado State University.

Tropical Depression Daniel continues to weaken
Daniel is continuing to weaken over the central Pacific as it is moving westward by the southern edge of the high pressure ridge. The latest CPHC advisory states that Daniel has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and minimum central pressure of 1006 mbar. It is located roughly 900 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii or 1105 miles east-southeast of Honolulu, Hawaii. Recent satellite imagery depicts that the cyclone is lacking deep convection in the center. Daniel is expected to weaken further due to unfavorable conditions with increasing wind shear. It is forecasted to become a remnant low in the next 12 to 24 hours. Daniel is not a threat to the Hawaiian Islands.

Civicane49

Hurricane

Updated: 10:45 PM GMT on July 11, 2012

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Daniel weakening; Emilia begins to weaken; 98E may develop

By: Civicane49, 11:08 PM GMT on July 10, 2012

Tropical Storm Daniel is slowly weakening further as it is moving westward over the Pacific Ocean. As of the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory, Daniel has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 1000 mbar, making it a tropical storm. The storm is moving westward at 17 mph, and it is situated roughly 1225 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii. Recent satellite imagery reveals that the small tropical storm is producing small area of deep convection.

Forecast for Daniel
Daniel is anticipated to continue moving inexorably westward over the next several days by the southern edge of the high pressure ridge. The cyclone is expected to cross 140°W longitude into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s (CPHC) area of responsibility in the next day. Most models agree with this forecast track of the cyclone. Daniel is expected to continue weakening over the next several days as it is forecasted to remain in unfavorable conditions with cool sea surface temperatures, dry air, and increasing wind shear. The cyclone is anticipated to become a remnant low in the next 36 hours. The remnant low of Daniel is forecasted to dissipate south of Hawaii. The remnants may bring some added showers to Hawaii in the next several days.

Figure 1. Afternoon infrared satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Daniel. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.

Hurricane Emilia begins to weaken
Hurricane Emilia begins to weaken, after it attains peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. Both microwave and visible satellite images suggest that the cyclone is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, which is typical for intense tropical cyclones. This cycle is likely weakening the cyclone slightly. The latest NHC advisory states that Emilia is a Category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 953 mbar. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 9 mph, and it is located about 690 miles south-southwestward of the southern tip of Baja California.

Forecast for Emilia
Emilia is expected to continue moving west-northwestward over the next four days by the high pressure ridge over southwestern United States. Models forecast the high pressure ridge to strengthen over the Pacific Ocean. This would cause Emilia to turn westward in the next four days and beyond. Many models are in excellent agreement with this forecast track. Emilia is not forecasted to threaten any land areas as a tropical cyclone. However, it might affect Hawaii in the next 8 to 9 nine days as a remnant low by bringing some added showers. Emilia is likely beginning the weakening trend. The eyewall replacement cycle would likely last in the next 24 hours or so. After that, Emilia is expected to enter into unfavorable conditions with cooler waters and drier air, which these should weaken the cyclone gradually.

Figure 2. Afternoon visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Emilia. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.

Invest 98E may develop in the coming days
To the east of Emilia, there is an elongated area of low pressure producing shower and thunderstorm activity. The low pressure system is classified as Invest 98E, and it is located several hundred miles south of Mexico. Recent satellite imagery depicts that the system’s overall cloud pattern remains disorganized, but it is slowly showing signs of organization. 98E is forecasted to move west-northwestward over the next several days and later move north-northwestward. It is not expected to threaten Mexico over the next seven days. The SHIPS model indicates that environmental conditions appear favorable for the system’s further development. Most of the models forecast 98E to become a tropical storm in the next several days. The NHC is giving 98E a 60% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Figure 3. Afternoon infrared satellite imagery of Invest 98E. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.

Civicane49

Hurricane

Updated: 11:40 PM GMT on July 10, 2012

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Hurricane Daniel continues to weaken; Emilia rapidly strengthens

By: Civicane49, 10:33 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

In the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Daniel continues to weaken gradually in cool sea surface temperatures and in dry atmospheric environment. As of the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory, Daniel has maximum sustained winds of 75 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 992 mbar. It is moving westward at 16 mph, and it is located about 1635 miles east of Hilo in the Big Island of Hawaii. Recent satellite image reveals that the deep convection of the small hurricane continues to diminish.

Forecast for Daniel
Daniel is expected to continue moving inexorably westward over the next five days by the southern edge of the high pressure ridge. Nearly all of the models are in excellent agreement with this forecast track. The cyclone is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s (CPHC) area of responsibility by Tuesday night. It is forecasted to pass safely south of the Hawaiian Islands by the next four to five days. Daniel might bring little to no effects to the islands. Daniel is anticipated to continue weakening over the next few days as it is expected to remain in unfavorable conditions with cool waters and dry air. The conditions are forecasted to be more hostile as the wind shear is expected to increase greatly in the central Pacific. The cyclone is anticipated to weaken to a tropical depression by the time it crosses into the CPHC’s area of responsibility. Shortly afterwards, it will likely become a remnant low.

Figure 1. Afternoon infrared satellite image of Hurricane Daniel. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.

Hurricane Emilia rapidly intensifies
Behind Daniel, Hurricane Emilia continues to rapidly strengthen in very favorable conditions. As of the latest NHC advisory, Emilia has maximum sustained winds of 110 mph and minimum barometric pressure of 969 mbar, making it a strong Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 15 mph, and it is located roughly 680 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. Recent satellite image depicts that Emilia continues to intensify rapidly with a well-defined eye and good spiral bands.

Forecast for Emilia
Emilia is anticipated to continue moving west-northwestward over the next several days under the influence of the southward periphery of the high pressure ridge over southwestern United States. By days 4 to 5, the cyclone is predicted to turn westward. Nearly all of the models are in excellent agreement with this forecast track. The cyclone is not expected to threaten any land areas; however, it might reach Hawaii as a remnant low, and bring added showers on the windward side of the islands.

Emilia is expected to continue the process of rapid intensification over the next 24 hours or so as it will remain in favorable conditions with warm sea surface temperatures, light wind shear, and moist environment over the next 48 to 72 hours. The system has a good chance of becoming a Category 4 hurricane in the next 12 to 24 hours. The SHIPS model indicates that the probability of rapid intensification for 30 - 35 knot wind increase in the next 24 hours is 30%. After 24 hours, however, the cyclone may weaken slightly due to the possible eyewall replacement cycle, which is natural for intense tropical cyclones. After the next 72 hours, Emilia is anticipated to move into unfavorable conditions with cool sea surface temperatures and dry and stable atmospheric environment, which these should weaken the hurricane gradually.

Figure 2. Afternoon infrared satellite image of Hurricane Emilia. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.

Elsewhere in the tropics.
Behind Emilia, there is an area of disturbed weather that may become a tropical cyclone in the next several days. Global models, including the GFS and ECMWF, are forecasting this disturbance to become a tropical cyclone in the next 72 to 120 hours. The NHC is giving this system a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. In the Atlantic basin, however, none of the computer models are forecasting significant tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Civicane49

Hurricane

Updated: 10:34 PM GMT on July 09, 2012

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Daniel becomes a major hurricane; Emilia strengthens

By: Civicane49, 9:58 AM GMT on July 08, 2012

Hurricane Daniel has unexpectedly become the second major hurricane of the 2012 East Pacific season. I was quite flabbergasted to see the tenacious cyclone strengthening rapidly into a major hurricane, despite the fact that its center just entered into cool sea surface temperature less than 26°C, which is the threshold of what tropical cyclones needed to strengthen and survive. Since the cyclone entered into cool sea surface temperatures, I believe that Daniel has reached its peak intensity, and expect it to begin the weakening trend later today. Recent satellite image shows that the small hurricane has a well-defined eye and good central dense overcast. The latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory states that Daniel is a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and minimum central pressure of 961 mbar.

Forecast for Daniel
Daniel is forecasted to move westward over the next five days under the influence of the southern periphery of the high pressure ridge. The cyclone is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s (CPHC) area of responsibility after the next 72 hours. Daniel is expected to pass south of the Hawaiian Islands in the next six to seven days as a remnant low; it might bring slight increase in showers and wind to the islands. Daniel is anticipated to begin the weakening trend later today as both cool waters and dry air weaken the system.

Figure 1. Evening infrared satellite imagery of Hurricane Daniel. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.

Tropical Storm Emilia continues to strengthen
Tropical Storm Emilia continues to intensify as it is situated in very favorable conditions. The latest NHC advisory states that Emilia has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and minimum central pressure of 1002 mbar. It is moving west-northwestward at 14 mph as it located about several hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Recent satellite image depicts that Emilia continues to maintain deep convection in the center.

Forecast for Emilia
Emilia is expected to move west-northwestward over the next several days by the southern periphery of the large high pressure ridge building over northern Mexico and southwestern United States. The cyclone is anticipated to move away from Mexico and not threaten other land areas. Emilia is in very favorable conditions with very warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear, and moist environment; these should allow the cyclone to continue strengthening. The SHIPS model forecasts Emilia to remain in favorable conditions over the next four days. These conditions would allow Emilia to rapidly strengthen in the next few days. In fact, the SHIPS model indicates that the probability of rapid intensification for 40 knot wind increase is 54%. Thus, I expect Emilia to become a major hurricane in the next few days. After the next four to five days, the system is forecasted to enter in unfavorable conditions with cool sea surface temperatures and dry and stable air, which these should weaken the cyclone gradually.

Figure 2. Evening infrared satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Emilia. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.

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Daniel likely reached peak intensity; new Pacific tropical depression forms

By: Civicane49, 9:33 PM GMT on July 07, 2012

Hurricane Daniel has likely reached its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph and minimum central pressure of 977 mbar as the cyclone is expected to enter into more hostile conditions with colder waters and drier air mass in less than six hours; these unfavorable conditions should weaken the system. Daniel is moving westward at 12 mph as it is located roughly 875 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Recent satellite image shows that the hurricane has a conspicuous eye and good spiral bands.

Forecast for Daniel
Daniel is anticipated to continue moving generally westward over the next five days under the influence of the southern periphery of the high pressure ridge. All of the models are in excellent agreement with this forecast track. Daniel is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s (CPHC) area of responsibility in the next three to four days. Most models, including the GFS, are anticipating Daniel to move just south of Hawaii as a remnant low in the next six to seven days. The cyclone is not expected to threaten the Hawaiian Islands as a tropical cyclone, but could bring some increase in showers and wind there.

Daniel has about six hours left remaining both in moist atmospheric environment and in warm sea surface temperature greater than 26.5°C. Thus, Daniel has likely reached its peak intensity. After six hours, the cyclone will enter in unfavorable conditions with colder sea surface temperatures and drier atmospheric environment. In response to the unfavorable conditions, Daniel should commence weakening after the next 12 hours. The system would likely become a remnant low by the time it crosses into the CPHC’s area of responsibility.

Figure 1. Visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Daniel. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.

Tropical Depression Five-E forms in the East Pacific
After maintaining sufficient organization over the past several hours, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated the tropical disturbance as Tropical Depression Five-E. As of the latest NHC advisory, Five-E has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and minimum central pressure of 1005 mbar. The depression is moving west-northwestward at 15 mph, and it is situated about 495 miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Recent satellite imagery depicts that the depression continues to be better organized as it maintain its deep shower and thunderstorm activity. If the tropical depression’s maximum sustained winds reach 39 mph or higher, then it will become a tropical storm and be given the name “Emilia”.

Forecast for Five-E
The incipient tropical depression is expected to continue moving west-northwestward over the several days by the high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific and Mexico; many models agree to this forecast track. The storm is expected to move away from Mexico and not threaten other landmasses. The depression will likely become a hurricane in the next several days. According to the latest SHIPS model, the cyclone is forecasted to remain in very favorable conditions over the next 48 hours with very warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear, and moist atmospheric environment. These conditions could allow the system to rapidly intensify in the next few days. In fact, the SHIPS model indicates that the probability of rapid intensification for 30 knot wind increase is 42%. Therefore, I see no reason why the depression will not become a hurricane in the next several days. After 96 hours, however, the cyclone is forecasted to enter unfavorable conditions with cool sea surface temperatures, moderate shear, and dry and stable air mass. The system is expected to begin the weakening trend after the next 96 to 120 hours.

Figure 2. Afternoon infrared satellite image of Tropical Depression Five-E. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Models, including the reliable GFS and ECMWF, are predicting possibly another tropical cyclone forming in the eastern Pacific in the next six to seven days. In the Atlantic basin, though, none of the reliable computer models are anticipating significant tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Civicane49

Hurricane

Updated: 10:01 PM GMT on July 07, 2012

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Daniel near hurricane strength; Invest 97E likely to develop

By: Civicane49, 10:13 PM GMT on July 06, 2012

Tropical Storm Daniel is approaching hurricane strength as it continues moving westward at 12 mph. The cyclone is located about 710 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Recent satellite image depicts that the cloud pattern of Daniel has not changed much over the past several hours. The storm maintains a central dense overcast in the center; however, the eye still does not appear on satellite images. As of the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory, Daniel has maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and minimum central pressure of 993 mbar. If Daniel’s maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph or higher, then it will become a hurricane.

Forecast for Daniel
Daniel is anticipated to continue moving generally westward over the next several days under the influence of the southern periphery of a high pressure ridge. All of the models are in excellent agreement of this forecast track. The storm is not expected to threaten any landmasses as a tropical cyclone. Daniel could reach the Hawaiian Islands as a remnant low, and may bring added showers and wind to the islands. According to the latest SHIPS model, Daniel has roughly 24 hours left remaining in favorable conditions with warm sea surface temperatures, light wind shear, and moist atmospheric environment; therefore, the system still has an opportunity to become a minimal hurricane briefly. After 24 hours, however, Daniel is expected to enter unfavorable conditions with cold waters and dry and stable atmospheric environment, which these should weaken the cyclone. Daniel is expected to become a remnant low in the next 96 to 120 hours as it crosses into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s (CPHC) area of responsibility.

Figure 1. Afternoon infrared satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Daniel. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.

Invest 97E likely to develop
Behind Daniel, there is an area of low pressure, classified as Invest 97E, producing shower and thunderstorm activity. The tropical disturbance is situated roughly several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec as it is forecasted to move westward over the next 24 hours and later move west-northwestward. The disturbance is not expected to threaten any landmasses. Latest satellite imagery shows that the disturbance is slowly showing signs of organization. 97E is over favorable conditions with very warm sea surface temperatures, light to moderate wind shear, and moist environment. These conditions should help the system to further organize and strengthen. SHIPS model indicates that environmental conditions will remain favorable for 97E over the next 96 hours. In fact, most of the models are forecasting 97E to become a hurricane by the next 72 hours. The NHC is giving 97E a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours.

Figure 2. Afternoon infrared satellite imagery of Invest 97E. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Models, including the reliable GFS and ECMWF, are predicting yet another tropical cyclone developing in the eastern Pacific roughly in the next seven days. In the Atlantic basin, however, none of the computer models are forecasting significant tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Civicane49

Hurricane

Updated: 11:21 PM GMT on July 06, 2012

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Tropical Storm Daniel strengthens; another disturbance would develop

By: Civicane49, 8:00 PM GMT on July 05, 2012

In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Storm Daniel has strengthened over the past several hours and would likely reach hurricane status. Recent satellite loop reveals that the overall cloud pattern of Daniel is improving with a forming central dense overcast and outflow. Latest visible satellite image shows that the cyclone is trying to develop an eye. The overall cloud pattern indicates that Daniel is likely a strong tropical storm. The environmental conditions appear favorable for further strengthening of the system in the next 48 hours. Therefore, I would expect Daniel to achieve hurricane status briefly before entering into unfavorable conditions, which should weaken the cyclone. As of the 8:00 am PDT National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory, Daniel has maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and minimum central pressure of 1002 mbar. The system is located about 600 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California as it moves west-northwestward at 12 mph.

Forecast for Daniel
Daniel is forecasted to move between west-northwestward and westward under the influence of the southern periphery of a building high pressure ridge. The models are in excellent agreement of this forecast track. The cyclone is not expected to threaten any landmasses as a tropical cyclone; however, it might affect the Hawaiian Islands by bringing some added showers and wind as a post-tropical cyclone. Daniel is expected to further strengthen in favorable conditions over the next two days. The cyclone is over warm sea surface temperature at 27°C and light wind shear of 10 knots. The SHIPS model forecasts the conditions on Daniel to remain favorable over the next 48 hours. After that, the cyclone is expected to enter into cooler waters and drier atmospheric environment, which these should weaken the system. Daniel will likely become post-tropical cyclone before reaching the Hawaiian Islands.

Figure 1. Infrared satellite imagery of Tropical Storm Daniel. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.

East Pacific tropical disturbance
A broad low pressure system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it is situated off the Pacific coast of Central America. Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of the tropical disturbance as the system moves generally westward. The NHC is giving this tropical disturbance a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. In fact, models, including the GFS and ECMWF, are forecasting this disturbance to become a tropical cyclone by the next four to five days.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model forecasts yet another tropical cyclone forming in the eastern Pacific by the next seven to nine days. In the Atlantic basin, however, none of the computer models are anticipating significant tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Civicane49

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Tropical Depression Four-E in the Pacific; other areas to watch

By: Civicane49, 9:56 PM GMT on July 04, 2012

Earlier today, Invest 96E was reclassified as Tropical Depression Four-E by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) due to the system’s sufficient organization of a tropical cyclone. Latest NHC advisory states that the tropical depression has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and minimum central pressure of 1005 mbar. The system is located roughly several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico as it moves west-northwestward at 13 mph. Recent satellite loop depicts the depression’s cloud pattern has steadily improved over the past several hours due to the abating wind shear, which was affecting the cyclone earlier.

Forecast for Four-E
The depression is expected to continue moving west-northwestward over the next 24 hours by the large high pressure ridge over southeastern United States. After 24 hours, the depression is predicted to turn generally westward by the different high pressure ridge over the Pacific Ocean. All of the models are in excellent agreement of this forecast track. The cyclone is expected to move away from Mexico and not threaten other landmasses. However, the system might bring little increase in showers to Hawaii as a post-tropical cyclone.

According to the SHIPS model, the tropical depression is expected to remain in favorable conditions over the next three to four days with warm sea surface temperatures, light to moderate wind shear, and moist environment. These conditions should allow the cyclone to gradually strengthen over the next several days and become a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane. Most models forecast the depression to become a strong tropical storm; few models predict the system to become a minimal hurricane. After 72 to 96 hours, however, the system is expected to enter into unfavorable conditions with cooler waters and drier air, which these should weaken the cyclone.

Figure 1. Afternoon infrared satellite image of Tropical Depression Four-E. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There is an elongated area of low pressure situated roughly several hundred miles south of El Salvador. This system is forecasted to remain in favorable conditions for the next several days as it is expected to move west-northwestward similar to the forecast track of Tropical Depression Four-E. The NHC is giving the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by the next 48 hours. Many models, including the reliable GFS, are forecasting this tropical disturbance to become a tropical depression by the next four to five days, and few models are forecasting the disturbance to become a hurricane.

In the Atlantic basin, there is a tropical wave producing showers and thunderstorms to northern Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. This wave is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone due to its location in unfavorable conditions with strong wind shear; the NHC is giving this tropical wave a near 0% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. None of the models are anticipating tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic basin over the next seven days.

Happy 4th of July everyone!

Civicane49

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Invest 96E becomes better organized

By: Civicane49, 9:43 PM GMT on July 03, 2012

An area of low pressure classified as Invest 96E has become better organized. Latest visible satellite image depicts that the incipient tropical disturbance is maintaining deep shower and thunderstorm activity and has good outflow in south quadrants of the system. Furthermore, both visible satellite image and scatterometer data suggest that 96E has a broad surface circulation center. 96E is in the favorable environmental conditions for tropical cyclones. The disturbance would likely become a tropical depression later tonight or tomorrow, if current trends continue. 96E also has an anticyclone above that is lowering wind shear near the center of the disturbance. 96E is situated roughly hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico and is moving west-northwestward at about 10 mph.

Figure 1. Afternoon visible satellite imagery of Invest 96E. Image courtesy: NOAA's Satellite Services Division (SSD).

Forecast for 96E
96E is forecasted to continue moving generally west-northwestward over the next few days under the influence of the high pressure ridge over northern Gulf of Mexico. After that, a different high pressure ridge over the Pacific Ocean would steer the system to continue moving west-northwestward and later turn more westward. Many models are in excellent agreement of this forecast track. 96E is not anticipated to threaten any landmasses. Although 96E is highly unlikely to threaten Hawaii as a tropical cyclone, it might bring little increase in showers there.

The SHIPS model forecasts 96E to be in favorable conditions over the next five days. Sea surface temperatures are forecasted to remain warm for tropical cyclones to form and develop. Wind shear is expected to be within moderate range and the environment is anticipated to be moist. These conditions should allow 96E to continue to organize and strengthen over the next several days. Nearly all of the intensity models forecast 96E to become at least a tropical storm by 48 hours; some models, including the SHIPS, are forecasting the system to further strengthen into a hurricane. It should be noted that the HWRF model predicts the disturbance to become a major hurricane by the next 78 hours. The probability of rapid intensification for 25 knot increase is 33% from the SHIPS model. I expect 96E to strengthen and become at least a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 96E an 80% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

Figure 2. Computer model track forecast of Invest 96E.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Some models, including the reliable GFS and ECMWF, are predicting another tropical cyclone forming few hundred miles south of Mexico’s Pacific coast by the next five days. This predicted tropical cyclone would move west-northwestward similar to the forecast track of Invest 96E. In the Atlantic, however, none of the computer models are forecasting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Civicane49

Hurricane

Updated: 9:59 PM GMT on July 03, 2012

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Invest 96E forms in the Pacific; Atlantic remains quiet

By: Civicane49, 10:18 PM GMT on July 02, 2012

In the eastern Pacific, there is an area of low pressure situated several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, and it is moving west-northwestward at roughly 10 mph. This tropical disturbance is designated as Invest 96E due to its potential of becoming a tropical cyclone. Recent satellite imagery shows the shower and thunderstorm activity of 96E remains disorganized but is slowly showing signs of organization. 96E is forecasted to continue moving west-northwestward over the next 4 days. After that, the system would move more westward. The disturbance is expected to move away from Mexico and not threaten other landmasses. 96E has a chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next few days as environmental conditions appear favorable for development. Sea surface temperatures are expected to be very warm at 29°C, wind shear is forecasted to be light to moderate, and the environment is anticipated to be moist over the next several days. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 96E a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 2 days.

Some models, including the GFS, are forecasting another tropical cyclone developing south of Mexico in the next 6 to 7 days.

Figure 1. Afternoon infrared satellite image of Invest 96E. Image courtesy: Colorado State University's RAMMB imagery.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic basin currently has no tropical cyclone threat, and none of the computer models are predicting tropical cyclone development over the next 7 days.

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