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S. New England Weather Watch - Model Observations (10-28-2009)
Posted by: ChrisCone, 8:25 PM GMT on October 28, 2009 +0
Alright guys, just a little bit simple model observations. New forecast update coming later today.


Look at the wide area of Winter Storm Warnings out west. It's a winter wonderland out there! There's a possibility this could be our weather within the next month. All that cold air is going to push east at some point.


Severe weather outbreak possible Thursday in the South


GFS an outlier forecasting a secondary low following the first low this weekend, along the cold front. Can't rule it out, but it is the only model currently showing this


Models are consistent with our weather for early-to-mid week next week - CHILLY
Take note of the position of the coldest temps in Canada.


Pattern flattens somewhat late week, but look at the area of extremely cold air in Canada sliding to Eastern Canada. Note the warm air moving up the Eastern Seaboard, moisture should be increasing.


Models also consistent on very cold weather spreading over New England late next weekend and into the following week. Sub-freezing highs for most of Southern New England, if this turns out to be true.


Obviously the models change a lot especially as you go further out, however models are consistent - thus far - on three things. A) A brief chill early next week for Southern New England. B) A brief warm up later next week. C) Axis of coldest weather in Canada moves into Eastern Canada, eventually smacking our area with some pretty darn cold temperatures. Could Hartford, CT become a "Winter Wonderland" in the coming weeks? That remains to be seen, but the pattern is surely looking "interesting." I am interested to see how the pattern next week and the week after actually unfold. If this "big chill" happens in a couple weeks or so, it will be cold enough to support all snow in terms of precipitation type. Also note that the GFS has been tending to forecast very cold outbreaks late in the period and it sort of "disappearing" as it gets closer. However, so far this one hasn't disappeared so I'll keep tracking it. A cold outbreak could also mean drier than normal weather, if the northern southern branches of the jet stream get pushed too far south all the storms will be hitting the Mid Atlantic and parts of the Southeast. That's something that I would have a hard time swallowing this early in November though. We'll see what happens!


PS - Also noticing the first hints of the upcoming severe weather outbreak down south. Here is some of the first intense storms ramping up... located just West of Wheeler, TX and south of I-60 at the time this radar loop was saved
Updated: 1:04 AM GMT on October 29, 2009   Permalink | A A A
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S. New England Weather Watch - Tuesday, October 27th 2009
Posted by: ChrisCone, 10:44 PM GMT on October 27, 2009 +0
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEATHER WATCHLocations I Focus On : Connecticut, NYC Metro/Long Island, extreme Eastern NY, Southern Mass, Rhode Island. (Entire Northeast US for significant weather events and some little tid bits on the Nation as a whole)_____________________________________________________________Updated : 10.27.2009 6:00PM local time10/26/09Actual - Normal - Record - Last Year Max Temperature 58° 60° 74° (1963) 62° Min Temperature 39° 43° 28° (1952) 4...
Updated: 7:41 AM GMT on October 28, 2009   Permalink | A A A
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S. New England Weather Watch - 1st professional entry
Posted by: ChrisCone, 1:24 AM GMT on October 27, 2009 +0
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEATHER WATCHLocations I Focus On : Connecticut, NYC Metro/Long Island, extreme Eastern NY, Southern Mass, Rhode Island. (Entire Northeast US for significant weather events and some little tid bits on the Nation as a whole)Forecast Release Timing : Short Term (every 24 to 48 hours), Mid Term (every 3 to 5 days), Long Term (every 3 to 7 days). Any significant forecast changes will result in updates to any of the terms during any given forecast.Fo...
Updated: 8:59 PM GMT on October 27, 2009   Permalink | A A A
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Check the GFS - Still hints of a New England Hurricane
Posted by: ChrisCone, 2:52 AM GMT on August 14, 2009 +0
hey guys check out the GFS, from 240 hours + it's looking like 1938 all over again. So far away though, but this is at least the 5th model run I've seen with a similar scenario. The other general thinking is a Florida landfall and a east coast rain storm... with the outlier being the storm going out to see. Again, this is the tropical wave which just came off the coast of Africa, not TD 2 (now basically a remnant low). Also, the model tracks for all 3 current tropic...
Updated: 2:54 AM GMT on August 14, 2009   Permalink | A A A
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Severe weather heading towards southern New England
Posted by: ChrisCone, 10:14 PM GMT on August 10, 2009 +0
A cluster of strong-to-severe thunderstorms with hail and strong winds is building and making a bee-line for southern New England... they will arrive in western Connecticut in 1 to 2 hours. Again at this point, it looks like a strengthening trend as opposed to weakening... I believe these storms will hold together quite well until they get right near the coast.
Updated: 10:17 PM GMT on August 10, 2009   Permalink | A A A
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About ChrisCone
Hello my name is Chris. I am 25 years old and have been studying the weather for 20 years. I hope to be a meteorologist, or at least storm chase.

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Naugatuck, CT
Elevation: 520 ft
Temperature: 57.5 °F
Dew Point: 47.8 °F
Humidity: 70%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 9:53 PM EDT on June 19, 2013
New Milford/Bridgewater Town Line
New Milford, CT
Elevation: 630 ft
Temperature: 59.5 °F
Dew Point: 51.9 °F
Humidity: 76%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 1.0 mph
Updated: 8:17 AM EDT on June 19, 2013
North End Of East Hartford
East Hartford, CT
Elevation: 61 ft
Temperature: 62.3 °F
Dew Point: 49.1 °F
Humidity: 62%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 9:51 PM EDT on June 19, 2013
Narragansett
Narragansett, RI
Elevation: 10 ft
Temperature: 61.9 °F
Dew Point: 58.0 °F
Humidity: 87%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 2.0 mph
Updated: 9:53 PM EDT on June 19, 2013
Springfield DPW
Springfield, MA
Elevation: 220 ft
Temperature: 64.0 °F
Dew Point: 0.0 °F
Humidity: 0%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 9:50 PM EDT on June 19, 2013
Worcester Range in North Central Vermont
Worcester, VT
Elevation: 1375 ft
Temperature: 54.1 °F
Dew Point: 42.2 °F
Humidity: 64%
Wind: 1.1 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: 1.1 mph
Updated: 9:53 PM EDT on June 19, 2013
Gables Community
Poughkeepsie, NY
Elevation: 240 ft
Temperature: 57.9 °F
Dew Point: 38.9 °F
Humidity: 49%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Updated: 9:53 PM EDT on June 19, 2013
New York, NY
New York, NY
Elevation: 40 ft
Temperature: 74.1 °F
Dew Point: 51.4 °F
Humidity: 45%
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 7.7 mph
Updated: 6:02 PM EDT on June 19, 2013
ON THE BEACH
Ocean City, NJ
Elevation: 20 ft
Temperature: 65.6 °F
Dew Point: 64.1 °F
Humidity: 95%
Wind: 7.0 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: 17.0 mph
Updated: 6:28 PM EDT on June 18, 2013
The University of Tampa
Tampa, FL
Elevation: 30 ft
Temperature: 83.6 °F
Dew Point: 77.9 °F
Humidity: 83%
Wind: 3.0 mph from the SSW
Wind Gust: 4.0 mph
Updated: 9:53 PM EDT on June 19, 2013
Downtown
Mount Pleasant, MI
Elevation: 755 ft
Temperature: 126.1 °F
Dew Point: 116.2 °F
Humidity: 75%
Wind: Calm
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St. Matthews
Louisville, KY
Elevation: 546 ft
Temperature: 77.9 °F
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Humidity: 53%
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Wind Gust: 4.0 mph
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Temperature: 75.3 °F
Dew Point: 57.0 °F
Humidity: 53%
Wind: 13.0 mph from the ESE
Wind Gust: 22.0 mph
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Denver, CO
Elevation: 5457 ft
Temperature: 88.0 °F
Dew Point: 37.7 °F
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Uptown
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Humidity: 80%
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Temperature: 93.0 °F
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Humidity: 94%
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Temperature: 65.1 °F
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Temperature: 65.1 °F
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Humidity: 76%
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Wind Gust: 3.6 mph
Updated: 2:51 AM BST on June 20, 2013
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