WU members discuss evacuation

By: CaicosRetiredSailor , 2:38 PM GMT on July 26, 2007

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In the comments left on Dr. Masters July 24 Blog "Warmer Water, SUPER HURRICANES" an interesting thread of discussion ensued concerning evacuation. This was continued over many hours, and I believe these comments are worth saving in a more accessible form for others to read. I have copied these comments, and below you will find over 120 comments by about 40 WU members, many by some of the "regulars" you see every day. Several personal accounts are related which contributed to the formation these bloggers opinions. The only "editing" I did was to leave out things which did not pertain to the subject of evacuation.

A theme which is returned to again and again is:

Every household should have a plan!
*** Know your risks *** Have a plan *** Be ready ***

The time to "make a plan" is NOT when you are already under a Hurricane Warning (or some other disaster threat). Your plan may, or may not be to evacuate, but we all should have a clear plan now for different alternatives, which is known by all members of the household. Even if Plan A is to "shelter in place" it only makes sense to discuss and have a Plan B for evacuation (or vice versa) "just in case," if xyz happens.

I believe we all can learn more about how to assess vulnerability and risk. Any two households (even next to each other) can be under the same risk of a hurricane strike, but one household may be more vulnerable. Factors such as age, health, building type etc. vary the amount of vulnerability of a household. So, different households, different plans...

As Dr. BRIAN WOLSHON, points out in Transportation Management + Engineering magazine (link) ...in many areas, ``We have too many people and not enough roads''. However, we can learn, and spread information about the essential need to limit the number of evacuees on the road, to help avoid evacuation over-response, or shadow evacuation. Shadow evacuation occurs when people receive incorrect information, or overreact to a threat, and it can clog roads preventing truly threatened populations from leaving. NOAA Hurricane Evacuation Zone Maps (FAQ)

One good slogan which is easy to remember is: Run from water, hide from wind. (Thanks SJ)

So, ....it is rather long, ...get your favorite beverage, (or popcorn) ....sit back, and I think you will find this a good read.


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Posted By: crownwx at 9:28 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Found this article interesting and relevant to this blog. It is from USA Today:

Poll: Little 'Hurry' in Hurricane Zones
Source: USA TODAY
Publication date: 2007-07-24
By Patrick O'Driscoll

Nearly one-third of residents in U.S. coastal areas vulnerable to hurricanes say they won't obey orders to evacuate if a major storm threatens, according to a new survey on preparedness released today.

Despite the nightmare experience of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the poll also found that almost two-thirds of New Orleans residents don't know the location of an evacuation shelter. More than half have not prearranged with their family where to meet after a storm. In other states, lack of a post-storm meeting plan is even higher: 66%.

"Our surprise was we thought the power of Katrina would leave a longer legacy," says project director Robert Blendon of the Harvard School of Public Health. His team surveyed 5,046 adults within 20 miles of the coasts in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, the Carolinas and Texas.

In a survey last year, only one-fourth of hurricane-zone residents said they would not evacuate.

The Harvard survey comes about a month before the normal peak of Atlantic hurricane season.

Two tropical storms have formed so far this year: Andrea in May and Barry in June.

Blendon says safety and security concerns rank highest among those unwilling to flee. More than half fear overcrowded roads. One-third fear danger during evacuation and theft or damage of property left behind. Shelter conditions also are a worry. Two-thirds of respondents think shelters would be unsanitary, too crowded and short of water.

Among those reluctant to leave, three-quarters say their houses are sturdy enough to withstand hurricanes -- even residents of mobile homes, which are considered the least-likely structures to survive.

Blendon says his team was "really taken aback" that a quarter of mobile-home residents who would not leave believe that their houses can withstand a Category 3 storm, with winds of 111-130 mph.

Blendon says New Orleans leads in one positive category: It boasts the fewest number of respondents who say they would refuse to evacuate, only 14%. "But they have the highest share of people who don't know where a shelter is," he adds.

New Orleans and Louisiana officials downplayed the shelter issue, saying details about where to take cover depend on the path of an approaching storm and specific needs of those seeking shelter -- families, the disabled or people with pets.

Terry Ebbert, the city's head of homeland security, admits concern that 51% in New Orleans haven't arranged for family meet-ups afterward. "Responsibility for individual planning rests not with government but with individuals," he says.
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Posted By: FloridaRick at 9:46 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
crownwx,
in reference to the article you posted, I would like to say that is why some of us wishcast. Working in an emergency management field we find that the more seasons you go without a hit, the more likely people as well as government become complacent. Funding starts to be cut, people start to ignore the situation. It was amazing to me here in Florida to watch after 04 season and see the positive changes that were being made in the 05 season. But 06 came and went without incident and it seems our folks are going back to the old way of doing business.
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Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 9:51 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Yeah, Rick...how quickly people, gov't forgets!

According to one report, a Cat 1 or 2 storm if it hits the MS coast (and NOLA, too) is reported to be equivalent in danger previously as a Cat 3 or 4...and still there is that mentality that people can "ride" out a Cat 1 or 2 storm! Makes no sense. Maybe there's NOT enough awareness created still...will people, gov't ever learn?
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Posted By: EdMahmoud at 9:56 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
About riding out Cat 1 or Cat 2 storms- people in well built homes not immediately on the beach can ride out cat 1 or Cat 2 storms. If they stay Cat 1 or Cat 2 storms.


But considering how quickly Hurricane Charley went to Cat 4, it is probably best to treat a Cat 1 or Cat 2 as a potential Cat 3 or Cat 4, unless you live far enough North with offshore water cold enough that you can be certain the storms won't intensify, and even that might be riskier than some people would want.
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Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 10:06 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Well, Ed, it's that kind of thinking that's going to get more people killed.

Here's what the report said:

A MS coast landfalling Cat 1 or 2 storm could be as dangerous at a Cat 3 or 4 storm. Here's why:

1. Storm surge would be as dangerous because of sediment blown up from Katrina. Shallow waters predicted to make surge even more serious now, making the Cat 1 or 2 more dangerous than perceived.

2. Land and building structures already blown out/away would allow surge to cause harm further inland.

3. Number of people working/living on the coast from elsewhere that have never had "any" hurricane experience.

4. Number of people still living in FEMA trailers.

5. Survey reports that says large number of people would "stay" in Cat 1 or 2 storm.

...apparently storm apathy abounds!!!
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Posted By: Patrap at 10:11 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
To be sure MLC..that would not be the case.If anything...the folks in ther Miss,LA,Ala...area are more H savvy than ever before,The Emg Mgrs..some whom I talk to on aregular basis ,all report that Evactuations will be called sooner.And those older folks who thought that since they survived CAmille in 69,that they could ride out KAtrina. That kinda thinking has evaporated.As far as surge goes..angle of impact..tide timing..all have an impact on surge.
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Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 10:14 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Patrap, sure, I understand surge. I am just repeating what the report/survey found.
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Posted By: Patrap at 10:14 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
The FEMA trailer issue is still a reason for concern.Evactuations even in a Strong TS are now in the Evac criteria.Plus...the people here and over there are prepared to move even before an official Evacuation is called.
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Posted By: EdMahmoud at 10:14 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Well, Ed, it's that kind of thinking that's going to get more people killed.


That people should treat a Cat 1 or Cat 2 as a Cat 3 or Cat 4 because some storms intensify quickly and unexpectedly?
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Posted By: SAINTHURRIFAN at 10:15 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
moonlight i live in south ms and i will tell you if thier is a cat 1 or 2 people will take it serious. and as far as your top five reasons you left out the most important the destruction of barrier islands horn ship chandeleurs petit bois and even deer. the surge would be far more severe because that main reason big article in our local paper concerning the barrier islands, also we are fortunate to have much better local and state leadership in ms than lousiana does. the newbies are reminded everyday by passing the destruction that is still here lifelong resident of ms gulf coast and huirricane vet of camille freddy elena georges and katrina have a good day
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Posted By: Patrap at 10:16 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
For sure,MLC...the Hype sells,as the Dr. points out in that article. I see your point.
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Posted By: Drakoen at 10:18 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
People should treat hurricane 1 category higher than what they are (Cat 1 prepare for a cat 2; cat 2 prepare for a cat 3; etc...)
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Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 10:18 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Patrap, I surely hope that's the case and that Emergency Teams and the Call is in place and ready. Not saying that it'll happen; but I can just see the "evacuation" mess already. Even that will be chaotic!

I'll try to find the report and repost it. But, one thing's for sure, the MS coast is particularly vulnerable (and NOLA, too in MHO) to any storm making landfall. Let alone a major!
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Posted By: Patrap at 10:18 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
To be sure..leadership counts..its no better in Miss than here.We all Americans,..it how one responds to the threat that counts.Calamity knows no borders saint..only mens minds do.
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Posted By: Stormy2day at 10:20 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
MLC, I didn't read Ed's comment as bad advice that could get people killed...now if he had stated that no one should evacuate for a Cat 1 or Cat 2 ...but, that is not what he stated.

Local evacuation plans are important to follow and that applies to the flip side as well. When folks evacuate that should NOT that causes grid lock on the roads and blocks evacuation routes for those that do need to leave. Folks should always opt for the closest safe evacuation site (local friends and family in a non-evacuation zone is best) but often folks that are evacuating take a "leave the country" route that depletes available fuel and blocks evacuation routes.

We are quick to rally people to evacuate but balancing that with evacuating at the right time to the right place is also an important factor in saving lives.
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Posted By: Patrap at 10:23 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
I remember during Elena..in Miss in 85..She came up ,stalled..turned toward Tampa.and ALL of Miss dropped the ball.They were more concerned with the LAbor Day tourist than to call a MAndatory evact.And when Elena turned back towards the Miss coast.Many boats that were brought back out from the BAck bays..were almost caught in the approaching storm. It was only the ANGLE of her Impact ,..that saved the coast from a devastating surge,and the fact that Elena weakend rapidly inland. I rode it out in Long Beach. And saw ALL the Local errors from that. So..its not responsible Leadership in many cases. Thats why one must have a plan.And implement it when one feels threatened,even before an Offical evact is called
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Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 10:23 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Saint, yes, the island barriers have been diminished. Was looking at an aerial of Ship the other day. Sad.

2. Land and building structures already blown out/away would allow surge to cause harm further inland.
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Posted By: Stormy2day at 10:26 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Pat, I rode out Elena on the St. Pete coast - that was certainly a storm that kept everyone off guard ...darn thing went on for days, chasing people every where.
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Posted By: Patrap at 10:28 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Good conversation this morning.A lot of experience here and among the group.We all can do a better job in preparing.From the Federal role,State..and Local govts. Hard lessons were learned from KAtrina in all areas affected.And points inland and afar. We should strive to prevent that from ever occuring agin. And it starts with the individual.I made mistakes...I learned the hard way too. Be sure to listen to Butch Loper Thursday Night,AKA sandcrab from the blogs here. He will be discussing the same points we bantering now. Hes the Emg Mgr from Jackson County, Miss. He has a lot to give to us in information and the REAL evactuation plans for South Miss. Should be a real treat to those interested.Butch will be on the BArometerBob show thursday night...Link http://www.barometerbobshow.com/
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Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 10:31 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Exactly, Patrap!

And Stormy, Ed's statement didn't offend me; but, to say that "staying" in a Cat 1 or 2 storm on the MS coast is probably not good advice! Even if one does live more inland.

Just ask "any" that had the Katrina experience about how long the whole area was without power, decent medical care, etc...

Also, do you have any idea how many FEMA trailers are still set up in droves in beach proximity?

I'm telling you an approaching/landfalling storm, even a Cat 1 will have unprecedented ramifications!
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Posted By: CaicosRetiredSailor at 10:31 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
moonlightcowboy at 9:51 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Yeah, Rick...how quickly people, gov't forgets!

According to one report, ......
Which report is that? Is it available online?
CRS
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Posted By: Patrap at 10:32 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Was quite a few wild days before Elena came thru eh Stormy2day? I was really scared as that eyewall came thru.It packed quite a wallop as she came thru. We were outside during the eye calm..and I was amazed to hear the backside coming .It ramped up to Cat 1 ..in as little as 3-4 minutes.Was a bad,bad, blow.
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Posted By: SAINTHURRIFAN at 10:34 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
i respectfully disagree pat haley barbour has done a wonderful job so has gene taylor and trent lott. haley put us under mandatory evac on sat morn before katrina blanco and nagin waited till sunday. but iam encouraged that bobby gindle will be a major improvement as governor when he is elected. i love our nieghbors to the west but im glad i dont have thier current leadership. on a funny note pat you do have one good leader in no his name is sean payton lol go saints
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Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 10:34 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Sailor, I'll try to find it later today and repost it.

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Posted By: Patrap at 10:37 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Wonderful...best of luck to Miss.Im relocting there on 40 acres maybe come Sept.
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Posted By: benirica at 10:37 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
lol Patrap, reminds me of Georges back in 1998 here in PR... in the eye I had to go and take the dog out to do her stuff and since I live up on a hill where you can see down to the ocean I could just see a wall comming and everything disappear behind it. I honestly just missed getting caught in the backside of the eye while walking the dog.
I'll tell you, that backside of the eye is sincerely the WORST part of the entire hurricane! (besides no power for almost a month)
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Posted By: FloridaRick at 10:38 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Patrap,
I agree whole heartedly with personal responsibility. I have given a couple of personal preparedness lectures to county agencies from the region I service, and the first thing I tell them is that it is their responsibility to protect themselves and their families, and as a responder it becomes my responsibility when their don't take their responsibility seriously. I have responded to all storms since Charley in 04, from Rita passing the Keys to Katrina in Hancock County Miss. The most rewording responses were in locations where people had a sense of personal responsibility and were willing to assist in their own response and recovery efforts. THe toughest are responding to areas that the government is expected to do everything for everyone.
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Posted By: Patrap at 10:39 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
But we will never forget it took the Feds 5 days to even find New Orleans Saint.And to be sure,THAT leadership is going to be replaced..thankfully.

And no respect is offered to Him..or his admin.
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Posted By: CaicosRetiredSailor at 10:40 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Patrap
Good to see you here this morn....
Yes about hearing approaching far side of eye... I was outside in eye of Kate here in 85, could hear other side coming. Most memorable was going in and watching (by candle light) the needle on my barometer moving up without anyone tapping it.... I could watch it move, and that was only a Cat 1.
CRS
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Posted By: benirica at 10:40 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Government officials can truly only do so much... there comes a point that stubborn people will stay behind and serious things will happen to them, in which case a few brave souls have to go rescue them and risk their lives. These people have families too and they shouldnt have to go out and rescue someone who had a chance to get out (shouldnt let them die either, but you get it).
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Posted By: Stormy2day at 10:41 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Pat, I had only been in Florida for 3 years and Elena was my first "tropical" experience. To date, Elena still tops my list of most fearful times in my life. She sat out there, teasing and beating the crap out of us.

Elena is the hurricane I remind myself of any time I'm trying to justify that I don't need to worry because "it isn't heading for me" ...
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Posted By: weathers4me at 10:51 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
I recall Elena also. That storm proved that it all matters on there they make landfall. If that storm would have come ashore where she was (just North of Tampa). That would have been one we would still be talking about. Which proves another point. If you live in an evac zone you need to leave. I'm not saying go out of state. Get a hotel or stay w someone near by so you can get back to your house before the looters do, but get out of the flood danger. Charley proved that these Gulf storms are hard to predict the exact landfall. We were caught w our pants down for Charley. We now have a plan.
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Posted By: Stormy2day at 10:57 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
There have been times when I have hidden in my house from the megaphone announcers telling me i'm in a mandatory evacuation zone and must leave. I wouldn't suggest that as an option to someone in the same situation but, at the time, the evacuation had been determined 24 hours before, the plan put in motion and by the time the megaphone people arrived the situation was no longer the same and there was no threat. I don't have a death wish but I pay attention to all the variables.

I know that my house will sustain more wind then my planned evacuation site. I know the bigger threat to me and my home is storm surge. I know exactly how many feet of surge +/- tide that I can take before I have water in my house. I listen to the local authorities AND weigh that with what I know. If the danger is wind, I'm not going to evacuate to a location that has a greater chance of wind damage then where I am...

To me, what Cat rating a storm has doesn't give all the info one needs to make the best decision. A tropical storm with the right speed and angle could put water in my house ...
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Posted By: leftovers at 11:02 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
We live in evac zone. Barrier island. Here in E Cen Fl. have the evac. zones been updated to include the man made structures like rows and rows of condos and a lock that has not failed yet. Maybe a solid cat 4 get me interested in leaving.
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Posted By: stormy3 at 11:04 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Hi all. Rarely post but thought I would throw my 2 cents in. I work in a medical facility and recently we were told that our building would stand up to a Cat 3. Does anyone know how they test for that? Many of our patients are critically ill and I guess they figure that moving these patients would be more dangerous to their health than riding the storm out. I disagree but without data to support that feeling I guess that's what we will end up doing. I'll be on the first team to ride out the storm and will be releaved by the second team when storm is over. If anyone can provide data that shows even a building with a Cat3 rating is not entirely safe plese provide link.
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Posted By: weathers4me at 11:05 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
stormy2day. I totally agree with you. I guess with a wife and 2 small kids, that is not an option for me. Now I have shutters and are build well above flood stage and do not want to risk the crazy drivers and traffic. If you follow the weather like we do here then at least we have that going for us. The wife wants to leave, I leave.
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Posted By: texascanecaster1 at 11:10 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
stormy it is usally soemthing that the builder includes in the blueprints or plans of the building or that he passes along to the buildings owners. However to test for that i beileve that a building inspecter comes in and looks at all of the buildings support structure and makes a very accurate estimate of how much it can handle with a given support system.
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Posted By: stormy3 at 11:16 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Texascanecaster1: Thank for responding to my concerns, work on the northeast edge of Tampa and from what i hear Tampa is way over do for some kind of event to occur.
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Posted By: emagirl at 11:27 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
well i work in emergency management in my county......and everyone keeps telling me i am hoping for a storm...i cant seem to explain to them i am not but if it does happen i want myself,my office, and my county to be prepared....some people just dont understand that though.
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Posted By: FloridaRick at 11:31 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Stormy3,
You should very seriously consider working with your local emergency manager to determine when you should evacuate. Here in my region of Florida I work closely with the hospital's safety folks along with the local health department and the emergency manager in determining the adivce that should be given. Many times it is very difficult to make that decision and when there are possible adverse outcomes due to the health of a patient that makes it even more difficult. If there is one thing that you should know and that you probably already have heard it is "Run from water, Hide From wind" Being that you are in the Tampa area, you should definately get with your County Emergency Management Agency and possibly your local Health Department Emergency Preparedness Planner and see if they can assist you in developing some evacuation triggers.
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Posted By: gulfcoastdweller at 11:32 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
I would like to chime in here, since I do live on the Miss Gulf Coast, 1 block from the beach.

1) anything tropical would be bad here. Our area is still very weak. Still tons of homes and buildings that are now shells of their former selves. Tons of dead trees and debris...can you say missles? No barrier islands to protect what is left here.

Not to mention that we have ppl who have lost everything and now live in FEMA trailers. These ppl are inclined to take their trailers with them when its time to evac out. They are not allowed to move these trailers. But we could have a mass panic, ppl taking their trailer, ppl who have never pulled a trailer before, flooding the interstates, causing tons of problems...

2) storm surge..well, there's nothing left to protect homes and buildings that survived Katrin's storm surge now. These properties are now storm surge target #1

3) last time I heard Harrison County ( Biloxi, Gulfport, Long Beach ) doesn't have an Emg Mgr. We have an assistant Emg Mgr but not a head honcho.....YOU WERE AWESOME CJ!!! PLZZZZZZ COME BACK!

4) our evac orders will be issued sooner that previous storms. Casinos will be forced to close sooner than before. Why? Beause ppl tend to go gamble, then evac out. So Co officals figured if they close the casinos sooner, that will "help" ppl evac out a little bit sooner.

5) then we come almost full circle back to some ppl can't evac out. They can't afford to leave, don't want to leave their pets, don't have a car, too old or too sick to be moved, don't have anywhere to go..........

anything tropical would be very bad here!!
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Posted By: stormy3 at 11:55 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Thanks all, some really great input!! I have the scary feeling that some of the decisions that are being made is solely based on what was requested of the contractor at the time of construction. Will definitely check with the sources you provided. OOPPPS I was wrong, is not what i want to hear after the fact.
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Posted By: sunlakedude at 11:55 AM EDT on July 24, 2007.
To: Stormy3.
Yes, that's a good question. I live in the New Orleans area and we heard from our officials for years that the Superdome was rated to withstand a CAT 5 hurricane and we all know what happened to the roof during Katrina. Katrina was a 3 when she finally came ashore in Southeast Louisiana & Mississipi and the eyewall didn't pass over the Superdome area at all. I was also shocked to see how many buildings all around town collapsed. Many of these buildings were made of masonry block which I thought was a wind resistant form of constuction. In addition, almost all of the high rises especially in downtown New Orleans and suburban Metairie lost large numbers of windows. The windows popped out and the office furniture was sucked out and fell to the streets below. I would like to know how they rate buildings for wind resistance.
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Posted By: EdMahmoud at 1:55 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
I don't know why people keep acting like I recommended staying put for a Cat 1 on the coast. What I said, for most places, a Cat 1 or 2 will not do significant damage to a well built home, but if one were near the coast, leave anyway, because every now and then, and I gave the example of Charley, a Cat 2 can become a Cat 4 fairly quickly.

I will say, if one is 30 miles inland, spending hours in traffic fleeing a Cat 1 because it might spawn a tornado seems foolish, as, IIRC, Alicia spawned tornadoes as far inland as Tyler, TX, 200 miles inland, and, as the bus fire with multiple deaths during the Rita evacuation (from a nursing home 40 miles inland near Bellaire, TX) shows, at some point the risks of being on the highway surpass the risk that the generally weak F-1 or F-2 tornadoes that are most common in landfalling tropical cyclones, and will affect no more than a few hundred square years each, would pose.
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Posted By: seabreeze97 at 1:56 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
leftovers,
to make a long story short...tell it to the neighbor who couldn't leave after the storm because of live electrical wires all over the place. He had to stay put with very little to survive on...Not to mention the absence of gasoline. A real mess...

So anyone who is talking the stay behind stuff is full of air...
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Posted By: EdMahmoud at 1:58 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
I could edit my last post, I meant F-0 and F-1 tornadoes.

An F-2 tornado would be rather dangerous, but I believe tornadoes over F-1 intensity are rare during landfalling tropical cyclones.

The tornado that broke all the windows in the 30 floor buildings in downtown Ft Worth back in 2000 was an F-2.
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Posted By: EdMahmoud at 2:04 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.

leftovers,
to make a long story short...tell it to the neighbor who couldn't leave after the storm because of live electrical wires all over the place. He had to stay put with very little to survive on...Not to mention the absence of gasoline. A real mess...

So anyone who is talking the stay behind stuff is full of air...


Well, a Cat 3 landing near Galveston could knock out electricity as far inland as La Grange and College Station. So you'd recommend the entire Houston area, including the most distant suburbs, should take to the roads to avoid it.


For that matter, we went about 12 hours without electricity after Hurricane Rita, people 15 miles away in Harris County (towards Humble) that were served by Entergy went up to two weeks, and I didn't see any evidence of winds even reaching hurricane force anywhere in Harris County.

So, everyone within 50 miles of the coast should jam up the interstates and flee inland because they might lose power in a Cat 1?
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Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 2:04 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Posted By: EdMahmoud at 5:55 PM GMT on July 24, 2007.
I don't know why people keep acting like I recommended staying put for a Cat 1 on the coast. What I said, for most places, a Cat 1 or 2 will not do significant damage to a well built home, but if one were near the coast, leave anyway, because every now and then, and I gave the example of Charley, a Cat 2 can become a Cat 4 fairly quickly.

...lol, Ed, take it easy. I think we understood what you meant. Your intentions were noble. Remember, there are people trying to learn (myself included for sure) about what to do.

I know one family that lived nearly 70 miles inland and were without power alone for nearly two weeks. They say they will evac and never subject themselves to those kind of conditions again.

The rule is (Patrap has a good one); but, basically it means be prepared and have a good plan(maybe an alternate plan even); but mostly, "listen" to your local authorities and act accordingly.

I like what Stormy2 said earlier, and it sounds like his planning is thorough!
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Posted By: EdMahmoud at 2:13 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Moon Light- official word from the governor's office in Texas after the Rita fiasco- in the Houston area, there are designated evacuation zones, the people in the zones closest to the coast are now supposed to leave first, and people in the inland zones, depending on storm intensity, are staged sequentially by zone. A new contra-flow plan has been set up on the highways out of Houston to get people out. But part of the plan is, unles sthey live in a flood plain or a mobile home, people not in a designated evacuation zone, and the Cat 5 zone gets as far inland as Pasadena and the SE parts of the I-610 loop, people are supposed to stay put and prepare to ride out the storm, including provisions for several days without electricity, at home, so the people who really do need to leave, can.

Posted By: seabreeze97 at 2:23 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
sorry,

I didn't mean it that way.

I just meant people should try to get out of harms way. Why stay, then cry out for help when no one is there...hello
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Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 2:37 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Posted By: EdMahmoud at 6:13 PM GMT on July 24, 2007.....people are supposed to stay put and prepare to ride out the storm, including provisions for several days without electricity, at home, so the people who really do need to leave, can.

...Ed, I think you're taking things a tad out of context; but you're right here. Officials have a plan. That's good. But, you can't force people to stay, just like you can't force them to leave in an emergency. I for one, don't want to stay anywhere without A/C for more than a day really, let alone a week or two.

The rule is have a personal plan and follow authorities, too. My plan exceeds theirs. My rule would be not to take chances. I'd rather hang out in a hotel room, or with friends and relatives, than subject myself to no power, no ice, no hot water...looting, etc.

I'm not saying everyone should leave in a Cat 1 or 2 storm; but I am saying "pay attention" and have a good "plan." I feel that's what you mean, too! The first post simply stated that a Cat 1 or 2 storm could be as serious as a Cat 3 or 4 ordinarily. Thanks, much respect.
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Posted By: sonofagunn at 2:48 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
mlc - the local authorities in this area (West coast of Florida) specifically say they DON'T WANT people who don't live in low lying areas or mobile homes to evacuate. Being stuck in a traffic jam is a bigger risk than wind damage from most hurricanes.

The best bet for people at higher elevations is to stock up on water and non-perishable food and ride it out.

I'm sure for a CAT 5 it might be a different story, but for most hurricanes that have threatened this coast, that has been their advice.
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Posted By: leftovers at 2:54 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
If you dont evac. dont forget to keep a hatchet in the attic.
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Posted By: Patrap at 2:58 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Guerra Family Video....Aug 29th,2005
St. Bernard,Louisiana.
All you ever want to know about storm surge and staying.
In their own words Link
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQkksAVBezc
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Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 3:07 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Posted By: sonofagunn at 6:48 PM GMT on July 24, 2007.
mlc - the local authorities in this area (West coast of Florida) specifically say they DON'T WANT people who don't live in low lying areas or mobile homes to evacuate. Being stuck in a traffic jam is a bigger risk than wind damage from most hurricanes.

The best bet for people at higher elevations is to stock up on water and non-perishable food and ride it out.

I'm sure for a CAT 5 it might be a different story, but for most hurricanes that have threatened this coast, that has been their advice.


That's good sonofagun! The authorities have a plan. TO BE CLEAR one last time: I have never said "evacuate." The post only stated that a Cat 1 or 2 storm landfalling on the MS coast would likely have serious consequences. The report did mention apathy to not evacuating with 1 or 2 conditions, which was meant to show the consequences of no evacuation with the present conditions.

Since then ED suggested riding out a Cat 1 or 2 if they were inland so far or out of harm's way. I responded saying that was not good advice. -- The "best" advice is to "listen and follow" the instructions of authorities. Go back and read the posts.

After that there were a couple of posts, and one of mine, that sited, even further inland a storm can cause great inconvenience! And therefore, a "good plan" is suggested for all. I don't think anyone wants to be without power or medical care, or any of those things for "any" length of time.

Sure evacuations are tough in FL; but I can assure you, that they'll be tough in MS if there is some imminent danger, and I'm afraid the outcome won't be peachy.

Now, I hope that's all clear! I appreciate the posts and the opinions. Just, please be careful, ask others to have a plan. Pay attention to what's going on and act with some good common sense!

....uuuuumm, btw I plan on running for office...any support out there? LOL...now, back to the regularly scheduled bickering and blob watching!
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Posted By: nola70119 at 3:17 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
The authorities haven't got a clue.....say a slow moving Cat 3 hits between Morgan City, LA and the Mississippi. That will reflood NOLA, overwhelm all the West Bank with a very large population, and all the towns that service the oil rigs in the GOM. Its not a theoretical, if a storm ends up there its inevitable, and anything coming from the West comes back door and not influenced by the cold surface temps of the Mississippi River flow.
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Posted By: texascanecaster1 at 3:17 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
ohh by the way texas river rat. The weather forecatsers at fox news network for houston do not know anything. They do not know how to correctly forecast anything tropical related or how to forecast local weather.I trust only channel 12 kprc and channel 11 for local weather forecast and only channel 11 for tropical forecasts made by local weather forecasters in our area.
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Posted By: hcubed at 3:21 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
"Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 1:37 PM CDT on July 24, 2007.

Posted By: EdMahmoud at 6:13 PM GMT on July 24, 2007.....people are supposed to stay put and prepare to ride out the storm, including provisions for several days without electricity, at home, so the people who really do need to leave, can.

...Ed, I think you're taking things a tad out of context; but you're right here. Officials have a plan. That's good. But, you can't force people to stay, just like you can't force them to leave in an emergency. I for one, don't want to stay anywhere without A/C for more than a day really, let alone a week or two."

And then there are those who NEED power. My wife is on a CPAP, and so having no power could kill her. No A/C, no machine, so we leave. Bring her back when power is restored.
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Posted By: nola70119 at 3:23 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
If you can afford to evac get out early.....
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Posted By: TropicTraveler at 3:24 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
First time on this very interesting discussion. I work in disaster relief and have seen and heard pros and cons of evacuating. For sure someone who is disabled or needs special care should plan ahead and leave early rather than late when needed.
If Charlie had been a dead hit on Tampa I shudder to think how much worse it would have been. Some areas were like a bomb dropped on them.
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Posted By: EdMahmoud at 3:31 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Obviously if one has a medical condition and can't go w/o electricity one has to leave for any hurricane.


But, per Texas planners, if not in a mando evacuation home, not in the flood plain, and not in a trailer (or some other compelling reason such as medical conditions requiring electricity) one is supposed to prepare to ride out the storm so as to not overwhelm the trnasport system and emergency shelters.
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Posted By: catfuraplenty at 3:34 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
I've said this before but I hope we get some sort of storm because a second year without a storm after stern predictions could cause many people to discount future hurricanes. We've all seen this time and again. I hope I don't have to hear any more crying people saying, "I'll never ride out another hurricane. We were lucky to get out alive."
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Posted By: stormy3 at 3:38 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Thanks guys, I'll add several ax's to my list of hurricane supplies (to chop threw the roof) and a big boat to row to saftey. Noah's Ark is looking better and better, looks like he had connecions with a world class weatherman.

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CRS [EDIT] ........next morning:

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Posted By: charliesurvivor at 6:41 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Charley04 survivor use another name,ive been using this name for two years,you might embarrass me
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Posted By: charley04survivor at 6:44 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Sorry, Ive been here for a couple of weeks and this is the first time I've seen you.
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Posted By: charliesurvivor at 6:46 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Sorry if I was brash cs04.What city are you in?
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Posted By: charley04survivor at 6:47 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
I was in Punta Gorda, but lost my home, so I am in Riverview FL now...just outside of Tampa.
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Posted By: charliesurvivor at 6:48 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Please keep the name you earned it
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Posted By: charley04survivor at 6:50 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Where were you? We didn't think we'd live through it. Once the front window went the roof was gone and then a couple of the walls. Very scary.
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Posted By: charliesurvivor at 6:54 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
CS04,I live in Estero,Fl.Charlie paralleled us about 10 miles offshore,was supposed to make landfall here,but took a small jog to the north before coming ashore,good for me(but still awfull)really,really bad for you!
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Posted By: charley04survivor at 6:57 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Yeah very bad... we weren't expecting it. We thought it was going to Tampa until just a few hours before.
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Posted By: charliesurvivor at 7:02 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
We did too.I still resent Max Mayfield for it.I noticed a Northward motion when it came off Cuba the day before,they were still saying it was going nnw and I knew it was going to come closer than what they were saying.My co-workers thought I was a worrywart when I told them to take it seriously
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Posted By: charley04survivor at 7:04 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
I wish we were better prepared. I found out about it going to Publix when they were shutting the doors to evacuate. I was like why would we evacuate, its going to Tampa. Boy was I wrong.
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Posted By: charliesurvivor at 7:06 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
cs04 nice meeting you,gotta run please keep the user name im looking forward to responding to your posts!
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Posted By: scwindsaloft at 7:11 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
charlie04..... according to wicklipedia, you were well within the strike zone. Where was the mix up. I know it took a last minute jog, but why were so many unprepared?
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PostedBy: scwindsaloft at 7:15 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
from wicklipedia...
Around two hours before its actual landfall, the National Hurricane Center issued a special advisory with Charley as a 145 mph (230 km/h) Category 4 hurricane with predicted landfall in the Port Charlotte area. [11] As a result, numerous people in the Charlotte County area were unprepared for the hurricane, despite the fact that the track was well within the forecast's margin of error.
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Posted By: charley04survivor at 7:22 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Well now we know not to pay attention to the black line so much. They kept saying it was going to Tampa.
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Posted By: StormW at 7:26 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Posted By: scwindsaloft at 11:15 PM GMT on July 24, 2007.

from wicklipedia...
Around two hours before its actual landfall, the National Hurricane Center issued a special advisory with Charley as a 145 mph (230 km/h) Category 4 hurricane with predicted landfall in the Port Charlotte area. [11] As a result, numerous people in the Charlotte County area were unprepared for the hurricane, despite the fact that the track was well within the forecast's margin of error.

That's called complacency...those folks were under a HURRICANE WARNING...and should have prepared...regardless.
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Posted By: charley04survivor at 7:27 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Many prepared, but just not to the level they would have had they known we would get a Cat 4 making a direct landfall. You have to remember they were calling for a Cat 2, to hit Tampa...which is way north of Punta Gorda.
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Posted By: StormW at 7:29 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Posted By:charley04survivor at 11:27 PM GMT on July 24, 2007.

Many prepared, but just not to the level they would have had they known we would get a Cat 4 making a direct landfall. You have to remember they were calling for a Cat 2, to hit Tampa...which is way north of Punta Gorda.

But, when preparing with the forecasts (this is from a power point presentation I have on Hurricane Charley), they recommend preparing for one category higher and landfall six hours sooner.
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PostedBy: scwindsaloft at 7:31 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
I agree StormW. 200% !!!
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Posted By: charley04survivor at 7:31 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Right, we thought at worst we'd get 80 mph winds here...
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PostedBy: scwindsaloft at 7:35 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Posted By:charley04survivor at 11:31 PM GMT on July 24, 2007.

Right, we thought at worst we'd get 80 mph winds here...

you did...and then some
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Posted By: charley04survivor at 7:36 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
yeah...tell me about it. I have heard there were 185 mph wind gusts around here.
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Posted By: CaicosRetiredSailor at 7:49 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.

StormW 7:29 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.

But, when preparing with the forecasts (this is from a power point presentation I have on Hurricane Charley), they recommend preparing for one category higher and landfall six hours sooner.


In that sentence, "they recommend preparing" who is the "they" and how is that recommendation promugated?

....I am involved with emergency mgmnt, and always looking for ways to raise the awareness of people here...

I am using backup pc this evening and may not be able to post easily, so do not be surprised if I don't reply quickly... I WILL be back.... soon if I can.
Thanks CRS
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Posted By: Dakster at 7:52 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
It's hard to believe that ANY long time resident of the State of Florida is NOT prepared for Hurricane season. This has been driven into us year after year. Even with decades long inactivity and no TS hits. I remember preparing in Elementary school. I have a plan and so does my immediate family, I put my kit together every June and I use the supplies up (except candles) after Dec.1. We know where we are going and with who and how, where we will meet in case of total disaster, etc. etc...

Everyone by now should know that Hurricanes are UNPREDICTABLE in nature and have a tendency to all of a sudden change course and intensity, which is why there is a "cone of death/destruction" and not just a straight black line. Forecasters are good and amatuer forecasters here are good too, but the bottom line is NO ONE can predict a direct hit a day or two out with 100% accuracy and precision.

If you know of a new resident it is your civic duty to educate them of what can happen during a hurricane and to get prepared. Every area of the country has a potential natural disaster that you must prepare for. I have educated my neighbor who just moved here (miami, fl) from Nevada...

Not that us Miamians are the example to follow, since 1 hour after the storm there were lines miles long for ice, water, fuel, and food.... All of which we had stockpiled to last my family a week. My neighbors either left Florida or had the same provisions.

To blame TWC or the NEWS for YOU NOT BEING PREPARED is B.S. You should've been prepared by June 1. It doesn't cost you any more $$, because at the end of the season you use up your perishables to restock next year and the non-perishables you just keep on hand after initial investment. This costs less than a set of snow tires our nothern bretheren have to buy for thier cars. If a hurricane is dancing along the coast that you live off of, then you should have your shutters up (if you have them).

-- Off my soapbox --
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Posted By: StormJunkie at 7:53 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Evening SSIG and CRS

Red Cross Safe and Well List https://disastersafe.redcross.org/
now on the Quick Links page. Thanks CRS ☺
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Posted By: CaicosRetiredSailor at 7:58 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
SJ
Thanks right back to you... I think that Safe and Well site is very much worth promoting, and making a part of ones individual plan... and let your relatives know that if all else fails, you will get a message posted there.
CRS
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Posted By: StormW at 8:22 PM EDT on July 25, 2007.
charley04survivor,
Obviously as your handle states...just curious, where were you and how bad did you get hit?
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Posted By: StormW at 8:32 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
CaicosRetiredSailor earlier question...
StormW

But, when preparing with the forecasts (this is from a power point presentation I have on Hurricane Charley), they recommend preparing for one category higher and landfall six hours sooner.

In that sentence, "they recommend preparing" who is the "they" and how is that recommendation promugated?
....I am involved with emergency mgmnt, and always looking for ways to raise the awareness of people here...
Thanks CRS

I'll try to find that out for you. The Power Point doesn't list any references...the Power Point was something one of my buds at the NWS office emailed me for a presentation we did at one of our AMS meetings.
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Posted By: CaicosRetiredSailor at 8:37 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
SW
Thanks......
CRS
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Posted By: StormW at 9:59 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
CaicosRetiredSailor
......earlier question?

A: We recommend that a worst-case approach be used in hazards planning due to the inaccuracies in forecasting precise tracks and other parameters of approaching hurricanes. Because of forecast and modeling inaccuracies, you as a public official should consider preparing for a hurricane at landfall that would be one category above the forecast strength.

Go Here,
METED UCAR https://www.meted.ucar.edu/loginForm.php?urlPath=hurrican/chp
create an account (free) once there and in , click on Community Hurricane Preparedness. I took that course and got my certificate. That's where I found the above info.
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Posted By: StormW at 10:02 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
That info is through FEMA...at least that is where the certificate came from...like the one in my blog.



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Posted By: sullivanweather at 10:26 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
RL,

I think the public is much more educated after Katrina in the arena of tropical cyclones.

They now know that it doesn't matter where a cyclone makes landfall, but that a much larger area is affected.

That's just my opinion, I really can't say for sure.
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Posted By: RL3AO at 10:27 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
They now know that it doesn't matter where a cyclone makes landfall, but that a much larger area is affected.

You must have missed the discussion earlier then
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Posted By: sullivanweather at 10:28 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
RL,

lol...must have.

What was the jist of it?
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Posted By: RL3AO at 10:30 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.

A guy that lived near where Charley made landfall had a beef with the NHC because they had it making landfall in Tampa. We explained that he was in the cone and under a hurricane warning so it was his fault for not taking precautions.


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Posted By:charley04survivor at 11:15 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Posted By: StormW at 12:22 AM GMT on July 25, 2007.

charley04survivor,
Obviously as your handle states...just curious, where were you and how bad did you get hit?
----------------------------------------------
To answer your question, I was in Punta Gorda and went through the eye and eye wall of the storm. We had boarded up, but thought we were safe even if it came in as a Cat 1 or 2. Well, something hit one of our boards and pushed it in enough to lift out the nails a little. The wind got in under it and blew the board off. Next thing you know a small roof tile flies through our front window. Before you know it just about every window in the house blows out and the roof is gone. Then a wall goes here and a wall goes there. I'd say winds at our house were easily 140 mph and gusting to possibly 185.
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Posted By:charley04survivor at 11:23 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
It seems like I should have used the sheet metal to cover my windows. My neighbors that used it didn't suffer as much damage as those of us who used plywood.
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Posted By: Chicklit at 11:34 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Charley, You make a good point about the sheet metal. I have what's called "galvalume" and they are attached to the house to screws that are jutting from about a 2 inch piece of metal that's fixed around the window and sliding glass door openings. I attach them with wing nuts. They're really light, stack easily, and afford great protection.
The big problem is when the winds are able to breach an opening, get into the house apply pressure, and that's what lifts the roof off. If you can seal everything off, then you have a chance of hanging onto your roof. Also, roofs should be hurricane clipped where the rafters meet the sill (top of walls).
I know all of this because my ex-husband and I started a storm mitigation company after Andrew, and we'd retrofit houses for hurricane safety. (I signed over my share to him in the divorce.)
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Posted By: sullivanweather at 11:37 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
The bad thing about Charley, and something that all hurricane forecasters fear, is that the storm moved parallel to the coast.

That increases the margin for error dramatically.
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Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 11:38 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
"Storm mitigation"--now there's a term. Understand, Chic, good for you all! Good advice, too! Thanks. Anyone near a coastline needs that kind of advice and more! KUDOS!
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Posted By: sullivanweather at 11:40 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Chicklit,

It's a shame that a storm as strong as Andrew came rolling in to expose the shotty construction of the homes that were built in Florida during the massive explosion of population from the 50's onward.
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Posted By: Chicklit at 11:45 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
Yeah, there's a lot you can do to retrofit a home for storm safety. Sealing doors and windows is the biggest thing, though. The thing is, you have to do it ahead of time. The aluminum shutters are notoriously on backorder this time of year, although maybe supply has kept up better with demand since I was in the business. It's definitely worth checking into...If you want to do it yourself, then you just have to measure all of your openings and have everything cut to fit...and that takes time. Unfortunately, many people don't want to think about stuff like this until the storm is on its way! I hope I don't have a false sense of security. Since I have four cats and a dog and work out of my house, I am very reluctant to leave...no matter what!
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Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 11:50 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
You know Hip, makes me think that we all have a certain amount of apathy to folks when a storm hits another area.

I was going through divorce and decided I needed some time at the beach to get away (after Ivan). It was unbelievable. Went down the road there towards the Florabama, amount of sand left over the highway there was unreal. I also remember driving through some neighborhoods just to see some of the damage and the progress...pulled into a cove (cauldedscack-can't spell it) and looking at a home that had been gutted, nothing left but a simblance of a roof. Then, when I took a bigger look around, all I saw was slabs! Then, near my car I saw the leftovers of a couple cases of Bud--thinking that these folks just sat there and looked at loss...wondering what they did, and were gonna do. Made my heart break and I knew my problems weren't serious at all.

Still, I think that kind of apathy exists, because while NOLA had it bad for sure (still does); but, MS's coast was totally obliterated. TOTALLY! Yet, the country and our state's leadership and our people came together, to make the very best of an awful situation. And, believe it...ALL are still trying to put the pieces back together.

AND, I was talking to someone today, that had property effected by Ivan. And today, they are still trying to put their lives back together, too. These things are horrible, HORRIBLE and it effects so many people, in so many different ways.
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Posted By: Chicklit at 11:52 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
One of my closets is adjacent to a load bearing wall and is reinforced with extra plywood...It's not a bad idea to have an area like that to huddle in when all hell breaks loose! Last time we had a tornado blow through, I sat in my closet with a motorcycle helmet on
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Posted By: Hipdeep1 at 11:57 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
I know Cowboy. I've been through too many in my life. Seen the horribleness of it and the homes demolished. Lives changed forever.....mine included.
What happened on the Mississippi coast should serve as the warning to all that it can happen to them.
Link http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCPaYKj0OEA
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Posted By: Chicklit at 11:59 PM EDT on July 24, 2007.
I know what you mean, Cowboy...I really fear for my lovely, seaside town if we get hit badly this year like we did in '04. That's when we lost most of what was left of our beach. Now the waves break up against the seawalls and at high tide, there's little to nothing left between the ocean and the condos. I campaigned for beach restoration for two years and was met with apathy from just about everyone, including the condo managers, city government and beachside merchants. The state DEP cannot believe the apathy here. The only upside of building condemnations would be that their rebuilding would bring money into the area that has been dessimated by a shortfall in tourists and a slumping real estate market.
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Posted By: Blink at 12:01 AM EDT on July 25, 2007.
Charley destroying a gas station to pieces. Link http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvPdQPnSstY
Man was I lucky it didn't came here. My luck ran out when Wilma came rolling through Naples.
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Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 12:09 AM EDT on July 25, 2007.
The thought came to mind that..."I was sad because I had no shoes, until I saw the man with no feet."

...I pray with all my heart and soul, that we(and the islands, Mexico) are all spared that kind of devastation and heartbreak!

sorry, a little mauldin(a term I learned here)tonight!

...I'll get back to work...lol.
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Posted By: Chicklit at 12:10 AM EDT on July 25, 2007.
Quite a video Hip Deep...One comment said, "Hurricane Ivan killed my parents!!!"
That's the reality of it. And we are fascinated with them...until it's over. Then it's a drag for a really long time. Our Charley Survivor still knows the horror of being in a house when the windows blew out and the roof came off...something you don't want to go through twice! That's what's so creepy for the Gulf Coast residents who went through Katrina. We've been talking all week about vulnerability, how many are still in trailers, how the barriers have been destroyed and how even more vulnerable they are now than before. There are no answers for this. Just hope that they don't get hit again. And that nobody has to take that kind of punch. Yet here we are, looking at the highs setting up, watching the Cape Verde season kick off...
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Posted By: Hipdeep1 at 12:15 AM EDT on July 25, 2007.
The saddest story has yet to be written. Because of the outrageous insurance increases (triple or beyond) since 2004.....many people that have no mortgage have no insurance now. Those would be mostly the elderly. Others are losing their homes becuase they are unable to pay the insurance premiums their lender demands them to have. So, watch out!
The housing market recession is already happening in south Florida and it is spreading. People that wanted to retire or live in the tropics are now already evacuating the state of Florida without being urged to by the NHC or their local EOC!
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Posted By: Hipdeep1 at 12:23 AM EDT on July 25, 2007.
I'll call the most recent south Florida evacuation the insurance scam Sh*t Storm! It is happening here and who will take care of the elderly here when they get slammed again and they have no insurance?
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Posted By: bamabeach at 2:46 PM EDT on July 25, 2007.
I live on the Alabama coast and can tell you that I don't mess around when it comes to this. I board the house, board the dogs, cut the horses loose to the back pasture and off we go.
I have a family and will A)NOT jeopordize their safety in any way and B)become a burden for rescue people to come and save us when we should have been GONE in the first place.

I know down here those that say "I'm stayin" say it ONCE. After that it's "I'm leavin".

The problem is many people move into an area like ours and will be experiencing this for the first time so they are often the "i'm stayin" people. Until they become a member of that group one time. After that they leave.
don't get me wrong. There are those that have stayed thru them ALL like my 88 year old neighbor.He scares the crap out of me but he's not leaving and there is no talking him out of it.
But there are alot of "newbies" that just don't get it until they go thru it.
Secondly, there are those that THINK they have gone thru a storm so they feel confident they can stay thru the next one.
I put a lot of Mobile Al. folks in that catagory. When Ivan came in it ducked east sparing Mobile and when Katrina came in they just got the scraping ends of that monster.
My step son lives there and is in that catagory. "Oh, I went thru Ivan". I say "no you didn't, it went east at the last minute and was a walk in the park over there". Talk to the people in Perdido Key and Orange Beach about staying around. You won't find many there. That's where the teeth of Ivan bit down.
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Posted By: Bamatracker at 2:53 PM EDT on July 25, 2007.
bamabeach....i live in Mobile and I'm in the Staying group. Actually I go about 20 miles N to the in-laws but still in the county. It really depends how far away from the coast you are, what type of structure you are in, and your elevation. Would I ride one out at gulf shores...no...but I'm not going to run to Montgomery either because I have safe places here to ride it out.
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Posted By: borlando at 2:59 PM EDT on July 25, 2007.
bama, when my dad had parkinsons (he has passed now) we went up for frances to tennessee for him. this was after charley. when jeanne was supposed to hit melbourne even my good ol dad stayed. we just got him a generator and gas. he wouldn't let us stay there with him, he was a stubborn man.
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Posted By: tampabayfish at 3:01 PM EDT on July 25, 2007.
Well said indeed bamabeach. I think there is a false sense of security in the Tampa Bay area because they "made it through the florida four in '04", but this area was merely scraped. Not many people around that can remember a true landfall (1935 I think). Some of the emergency managers around here hypothesize that Pinellas County would, at least temporarily, become and island if a 4 or 5 hit. I dont think people can conceive that...
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Posted By: Shrap at 5:08 PM EDT on July 25, 2007.
Well Bama, I live in Pcola and I sat through Ivan's eye wall dragging right across me. I am still in the "stayers" group for the most part, only because I am in a really good location (highest elevation in Pcola),good structure and no kids.

The whole experience of such a powerful storm is incredible (albeit, not for the timid). But I saw the dresuction at the beach and water ways, and many many people would be insane not to leave, even in minor storms.

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127. LakeWorthFinn
5:10 AM GMT on December 23, 2011
Happy Holidays and a wonderful 2012 to you and your loved ones!

~~~~♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥♥~~~~


Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7275
126. LakeWorthFinn
5:03 PM GMT on August 23, 2011
Thinking of you and wishing you'll be safe :)
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7275
125. reeldrlaura
6:20 PM GMT on September 28, 2009
Trying to reach my wheelchair-bound brother in Dagupan City and see if he and his wife are OK.......Patrick and Anne Dailey in the Bonuan Gueset subdivision. Any news or update on situation NORTH of Manila would be greatly appreciated!!!

You think maybe Margie could find out anything???
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
124. reeldrlaura
5:20 PM GMT on September 28, 2009
{{{CRS}}} are you getting anything over the airwaves about Ketsana (Ondoy in the philippines).......can't reach my brother, who's north of Manila in Dagupan City and I'm wondering how that province fared. Brother is in wheelchair and communications were apparently knocked out early. Lots of expats in his area with Hams......give me a holler if you have yer ears on and hear ANYTHING about the Dagupan City area (Pangasanan province).
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
123. surfmom
3:38 PM GMT on June 21, 2009
careful...she was calling your name..LOL
(if you're a Dad - Happy Day)
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
122. surfmom
12:02 AM GMT on June 21, 2009
LOVE YOUR NEW AVATAR!! RESPECTFULLY SURFMOM
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
121. surfmom
8:02 PM GMT on May 18, 2009
HINT: This is My beach.. just beyond the point that you see in the picture is a "secret cove" where pirates would hide b/4 they'd take over the boats sailing from Ft. Myers to Tampa.....
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
120. surfmom
1:40 PM GMT on May 17, 2009
sOOO Pyrate --- I found one of your harbours....

Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
OK OK Ok already...
I'm AWAKE....
goodness gracious Pyrate Mom
You're excited this mornin.

CRS


HEY PYRATE -- I'm always excited..... specially when King Neptune is on his way for a visit!!!

Now if I could find your ship....... we'd be talkin'



and I'm leaving my colors..... perhaps you'll be able to locate me. First you get Emmy, then you get me..... swing up to the Panhandle and get the Pyrate Babes from there.... then back down to the Carib....... hey we can dream

Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
119. EmmyRose
7:08 PM GMT on May 02, 2009


Tis not I who pulled up this blog
but Ronni LOL

I swear by the oath of blood and rum
LOLOLOL
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
117. LakeWorthFinn
2:38 AM GMT on September 14, 2008
I just got mail from from our Sailor, he's fine and his home only lost some shingles!

I'm sure he'll post soon, just busy with the aftermath.
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7275
116. EmmyRose
2:44 AM GMT on September 08, 2008
CRS just heard that 90-95% of the homes
were damaged on the island
I pray you okay.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
115. EmmyRose
6:42 AM GMT on September 07, 2008
CRS - praying for you. Stay safe pirate.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
114. AllyBama
2:44 AM GMT on September 07, 2008
CRS - we are watching and praying for your safety as well as that of the other islanders...may God be with you and give you shelter from the storm...
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 132 Comments: 20635
113. Gatorxgrrrl
2:41 AM GMT on September 07, 2008
prayers for you - God speed.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 70 Comments: 15599
112. collinsfarm
2:32 AM GMT on September 07, 2008
CRS,
Praying your harbor is a safe one.
Take care.
Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1354
111. LakeWorthFinn
12:15 AM GMT on September 07, 2008
My thoughts and prayers are with you, a candle is lit at Finn's house for your safety and those in your area.

You've got mail
Member Since: October 6, 2005 Posts: 67 Comments: 7275
110. collinsfarm
12:23 PM GMT on September 03, 2008
Good morning CRS,
Checking in to see how you are making out in your waters. Be safe.
Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1354
109. collinsfarm
12:20 PM GMT on September 03, 2008
CRS,
How's it going in your waters? Be safe.
Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1354
108. reeldrlaura
4:54 PM GMT on September 02, 2008
{{{{CRS}}}
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
107. collinsfarm
4:05 PM GMT on September 02, 2008
CRS,
Just checking on you. Are you moored somewhere near Hanna or at sea? The cauldron seems to be getting pretty stirred up.
Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1354
106. stormdude77
3:22 AM GMT on September 01, 2008
Hi

CRS...How's the weather? Hanna isn't in a hurry to move...flooding will likely be a major factor in the Bahamas and in your area, for at least a week.

Stay dry!
105. EmmyRose
3:08 AM GMT on September 01, 2008
Be safe mr. pyrate!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! So good to see you again!
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
104. reeldrlaura
3:01 AM GMT on September 01, 2008
{{{{CRS}}} I tried to post earlier, but decided to do some carving in stone instead.......seemed the easier thing to do! LOL I see some posts are now making it through the bloghole. Glad we had the opportunity to talk before, and it was SO good to hear your salty voice again!! Stay vigilant with that arm........and tell your doc about the weirdness you were telling me about.

SO nice to have you back on the blogs (when they're working)!!!
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
103. CaicosRetiredSailor
2:22 AM GMT on September 01, 2008
cf

I tried to reply earlier, but there was a gigantic Blog HOLE which stretched from 8:15 to 9:19

I am under the big blob of convection Hanna is cooking up.

It hasn't been very bad so far... just had highest gust at 34 mph.

Raining right now.... Bar. 1002.8 still falling


CRS
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5995
102. collinsfarm
11:59 PM GMT on August 31, 2008
Hey CRS,
How's it looking over in your waters? Keep your bow to the wind mate and ring out if you need anything.
Member Since: September 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1354
101. CaicosRetiredSailor
5:11 PM GMT on August 31, 2008
Hello all,

I have finally re-surfaced and will be back on a bit more again.

I thought I would "bump" this up since the subject of evacuation is on a lot of minds now.

remember:

RUN from water, Hide from wind.

Hanna is just a little blustery here at this time...Bar. 1006.0, NNW breeze 10-15mph with complete overcast, just a trace of rain so far.

More Later.

CRS
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5995
100. moonlightcowboy
6:17 AM GMT on December 24, 2007
Photobucket
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29594
99. EmmyRose
9:44 PM GMT on October 29, 2007
{{{{{{{{{{{{{CRS}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}
I am sending out prayers your way
that you will be safe from this
God awful silly named storm Noel....

Ye best batten down the hatches
me friend.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
98. EmmyRose
8:35 PM GMT on October 05, 2007
Me too...I wish y'all were here with me
well adieu
be careful of swirling disturbances
and we have a "naked" disturbance off our coast
somebody bring it some pants......

♥ pyrate queen officially GONE.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
97. reeldrlaura
8:34 PM GMT on October 05, 2007
{{{EMMY, CRS}}}}} I'll talk to you both later.....gotta close up shop, feed my cat, and head over to the Tiki Bar.......catch you on the flip-flop>>>
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
96. reeldrlaura
8:33 PM GMT on October 05, 2007
mmmmmmmm lobster!!!! Yum-yum!!
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
95. CaicosRetiredSailor
8:33 PM GMT on October 05, 2007
I wish I was there Emmy

Have a Happy!

CRS
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5995
94. EmmyRose
8:33 PM GMT on October 05, 2007
OH MY POOR LOBSTER.....

:-(
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
93. CaicosRetiredSailor
8:32 PM GMT on October 05, 2007
Next photo I will post here is of the lobster...
That is just how far behind I am
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5995
92. EmmyRose
8:32 PM GMT on October 05, 2007
oh okay!
My plan right now is to be officially blottoed in an hour....

over and out.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
91. CaicosRetiredSailor
8:31 PM GMT on October 05, 2007
roger roger will do
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5995
90. reeldrlaura
8:30 PM GMT on October 05, 2007
Better after 7pm for me.....
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
89. CaicosRetiredSailor
8:29 PM GMT on October 05, 2007
I will be in touch with you Emmy I want to catch up on your plans....
more later
CRS
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5995
88. EmmyRose
8:28 PM GMT on October 05, 2007
you two have fun skyping.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
87. EmmyRose
8:27 PM GMT on October 05, 2007
well I'm off for a lost weekend
I really forgot what blog I was in LMAO
this is way too fun and it's only 3.30 on Friday

sheesh
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
86. CaicosRetiredSailor
8:26 PM GMT on October 05, 2007
Or would a bit latter be better?
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5995
84. CaicosRetiredSailor
8:25 PM GMT on October 05, 2007
OK to skype you at this time?
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5995
83. reeldrlaura
8:25 PM GMT on October 05, 2007
GUINNES UP!!!!
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
82. reeldrlaura
8:24 PM GMT on October 05, 2007
WE CAN!!!!
Member Since: July 31, 2005 Posts: 93 Comments: 6007
79. EmmyRose
8:20 PM GMT on October 05, 2007
come to the greek festival with ME....
oh yeah a lost weekend.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405
77. EmmyRose
8:14 PM GMT on October 05, 2007
should have stopped me girl
what was I thinking? LMAO
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 347 Comments: 76405

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