Updated on Valentine's Day Storm

By: BwalshNLWeather , 1:37 AM GMT on February 14, 2014

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Good evening,

An intense low currently south of Long Island will continue to deepen as it tracks to the northeast tonight, and is expected to track over Western Newfoundland Friday night. Snow and blowing snow spreads across Newfoundland, from southwest to northeast, overnight, beginning just after midnight on the Southwest Coast, reaching the St. John’s-Metro region near dawn (7-8 AM). Snow changes through a brief period of ice pellets and freezing rain, to rain near noon Friday on the South Coast and Avalon; mid-afternoon in Central Newfoundland and the West Coast. Significant snowfall amounts are expected in Central and Western Newfoundland, including the Northern Peninsula, where 20-30+ cm is possible on Friday. Snowfall amounts diminish over Eastern Newfoundland, where about 10 cm is expected on the Avalon Peninsula before the changeover to rain.

Very strong southeasterly winds develop across Southern and Eastern Newfoundland late Friday morning with gusts to 120 km/h expected (gusts to 150 km/h in Wreckhouse). Winds briefly diminish (southwesterly gusts 70-80 km/h) late Friday afternoon into the evening hours, increasing to southwesterly gusts to 110 km/h on the South Coast and Avalon Peninsula after midnight, continuing into Saturday morning as the low continues to deep north of Newfoundland. Winds rapidly diminish Saturday afternoon into the evening under a narrow ridge of high pressure.

Road travel may be hazardous across the Island Friday morning and early afternoon with moderate to heavy snow and gusty winds producing reduced visibility in blowing snow.

Timeline for St. John’s and the Northeast Avalon:
Friday 6 - 9 AM: Snow and blowing snow developing. Snowfall amount 1-3 cm. Wind southeast 40 gusting to 70 km/h.
Friday 9 AM – Noon: Snow changing through ice pellets to freezing rain. Snow and ice pellet amount 6-9 cm. Wind southeast 70 gusting to 110 km/h.
Friday Noon – 3 PM: Freezing rain changing to rain. Rainfall amount 10 mm. Wind south 70 gusting to 110 km/h.
Friday 3 – 6 PM: Rain tapering to showers. Rainfall amount 5-10 mm. Wind southwest 50 gusting to 80 km/h.
Friday 6 PM – Midnight: Showers or drizzle. Wind southwest 50 gusting to 80 km/h.
Saturday Midnight – 6 AM: Scattered showers changing to flurries. Wind southwest 70 gusting to 100 km/h.

Newfoundland Snowfall Totals on Friday:
Avalon Peninsula: 7-12 cm
Burin Peninsula, Clarenville/Terra Nova and Bonavista Peninsula: 12-20 cm
Central Newfoundland and South Coast (west of Burin Peninsula): 20-25 cm
Western Newfoundland and Northern Peninsula: 20-30 cm

Outlook: Another low moves over Central/Western Newfoundland on Sunday, bringing another snow/ice to rain event for Eastern Newfoundland, along with southeasterly winds gusting up to 120 km/h (except gusting to 150 km/h in Wreckhouse) Sunday morning, shifting to southwesterly gusts to 100 km/h in the afternoon and evening. The Avalon Peninsula will likely see 2-5 cm of snow Sunday morning, followed by a period of freezing rain near noon, then 5-10 mm of rain Sunday afternoon. Central and Western Newfoundland, including the Northern Peninsula, will likely see another significant snowfall (15-25+ cm) on Sunday.

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About BwalshNLWeather

Operations Manager and Meteorologist with Ice & Environmental Services at Provincial Aerospace Ltd. I've been weather forecasting since 2000.

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