Messy System on the Way for Wednesday

By: BwalshNLWeather , 8:53 PM GMT on January 20, 2014

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Good afternoon,

After a mild stretch of weather over the past couple of weeks, much of Newfoundland will see a return to wintry weather on Wednesday ahead of our next system. Currently, a weak low is over the Dakotas and will move down off the coast of the Carolinas on Tuesday, and then intensify as it passes east of Nova Scotia Wednesday evening, then across Central Newfoundland early Thursday morning. All areas of the Island will likely begin as snow on Wednesday, but areas to the east of the track will see snow transition through a potentially extended period of ice pellets/freezing rain, then to rain in the afternoon as the associated warm front moves over the region. The most significant snowfall is still expected over Central and Western Newfoundland, where 15-30 cm is expected by Thursday morning. Snowfall amounts diminish to the east, where higher rainfall is expected.

Timeline for St. John’s and the Northeast Avalon:
Snow develops Wednesday morning (7-9 AM) and could be heavy at times before changing to ice pellets by noon, then to freezing rain early in the afternoon. Freezing rain changes to rain late afternoon (4-6 PM). Rain tapers to showers by midnight, with temperatures quickly falling overnight behind the cold front. Snowfall amounts likely 5-10 cm, followed by 1-2 hours of ice pellets, then 2-3 hours of freezing rain before ending as rain. Rainfall amount 10-20 mm. Temperatures rise to plus 7 Wednesday evening, falling back below zero by dawn Thursday. Very strong westerly winds develop across the Island Wednesday night into Thursday morning with gusts of 90-110 km/h likely over the Avalon Peninsula.

Newfoundland Snowfall Totals (through noon Thursday):
Avalon Peninsula South: 3-6 cm
Avalon Peninsula North, including St. John’s, and the Burin Peninsula: 5-10 cm
Clarenville/Bonavista: 10-15 cm
Central Newfoundland, including South Coast (west of the Burin Peninsula) and the Northern Peninsula: 15-25 cm
Western Newfoundland: 20-30 cm

Outlook: A low will track southeast of Newfoundland on Friday. Current indications have the low passing well offshore and only bringing flurries, or light snow, to the Avalon Peninsula.

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About BwalshNLWeather

Operations Manager and Meteorologist with Ice & Environmental Services at Provincial Aerospace Ltd. I've been weather forecasting since 2000.

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