Central Ohio

May 21st: Ohio's Chance of Severe Storms

Posted by: Buckey2745, 1:54 PM GMT on May 21, 2013

Yesterday a tornado that many believe will be rated an EF5 by the National Weather Service tore through Moore, OK. In a scene that not many have seen since Greensburg or Joplin, a populated area was leveled. And not just heavily damaged, we're talking complete devistation.

In the past we have seen the images of houses ruined from these massive twisters, but I don't believe I've ever seen an image like the one below, where entire blocks aren't just damaged, they're leveled. Nothing standing higher than a stripped tree:

For those affected by the Moore tornado, nothing will ever be the same. For the parents of the children trapped inside of the elementary school, they will never be able to hear another tornado siren again without thinking of that horrific May afternoon. And God forbid the parents of the children who didn't make it... they may never recover. I know I wouldn't.

As meteorologists, storm spotters, weather co-op observers, and weather enthusiasts we watch the weather. We report it. We live for it. I'm sure that all of us have seen our fair share of storm damage. But none of us ever want to see what we're seeing in Moore. Children. Families. Pets. Entire lives. All gone.

It's my hope that we never see something like this again.

Ohio's Severe Threat
It seems hard to transition from what's happened in Oklahoma to today's severe risk here in Ohio, considering how insignificant it seems. However, the threat is there, and no matter how minor we have to keep an eye on it.

The SPC has the slight risk pegged off to our northwest, however I believe by the time the noon update rolls around we should see that expended to include most of Ohio. The reason being two main factors:

Instability
If we see enough sun this afternoon, which we should, CAPE could be upwards of 3000 J/kg. High dewpoints and temps in the mid 80's will be perfect fuel.

Washed out boundry
A line of showers pushing in from Indiana may be the area of focus for redevelopment this afternoon, especially areas east of I-75 where no stabilization has occured today. Instability will be more favorable in the east and this area could flare right back up.

Our limiting factor for supercells would be the low shear. At only about 30kts we're in the low to moderate shear range, but the high instability could overrun that negating factor. For sure when storms do pop this afternoon they should be able to tower, it'll just be a matter of whether they can become severe.

Tornado Warning Chance: 0%
Thunderstorm Warning Chance: 10%

Severe Weather Stats:
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 4
Tornado Watches: 0
Tornado Warnings: 0
Flood Watches: 1
Flood Warnings: 0
Heat Advisories: 0
Excessive Heat Warnings: 0
Red Flag Warnings: 0

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A Beautiful Thunderhead

Posted by: Buckey2745, 11:54 PM GMT on May 18, 2013

While this weekend has been projected to be a relatively quiet weekend in terms of truly severe weather, I did spot an absolutely beautiful Thunderhead developing just southeast of Canal Winchester, OH. Perfect structure, classic anvil top beginning to develop. Just a picturesque scene on a spring evening.

Here's to hoping this produces some lightning to photograph after dark!

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TornadoQuest: Unsettled Weekend, Severe Unlikely

Posted by: Buckey2745, 10:43 PM GMT on May 16, 2013

A stalled frontal boundary parked near the I-70 corridor this weekend will be the focus for afternoon convection on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Unfortunately for the TornadoQuest, none of these storms are expected to be tornadic.

What we should expect is what we saw this afternoon... storms fire south of the boundary and move east to eventually southeast:

Most of these storms will probably stay south of the Columbus are...

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From Rain to Frost

Posted by: Buckey2745, 3:08 PM GMT on May 11, 2013

Yesterday's heavy rain threat never materialized in to a flood event, but we did get our biggest single day rain total of the year here in Canal Winchester with 1.21", crushing the previous high of 0.95" from April.

The rain added to an average year of rain so far, putting us at 11.17", only about 1.64 below average.

The real story will be the cloudy lull today that will lead to a second cold front in 24 hours smashing through our area tonight...

Updated: 3:09 PM GMT on May 11, 2013

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May 10th: Heavy Rain Threat

Posted by: Buckey2745, 5:28 PM GMT on May 10, 2013

Yesterday it appeared that today's risk could be severe weather. The risk was small, but high winds and small hail could have been a possibility. But now, instability is off to our east, shear is almost non-existant, and WBZ is up around 10k feet. So the focus has been turned to heavy rain.

A large MCS is approaching from the southwest, and should overtake our area by late afternoon:

PWAT values will be approaching 1.4 with this system t...

Updated: 7:14 PM GMT on May 10, 2013

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